Posted originally on Dec 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Merry Christmas to everyone around the world.

Christmas is a reminder that history does not move in straight lines. It moves in cycles. Every civilization has faced moments where confidence was tested, institutions were stretched beyond their limits, and the public was told to trust systems that were clearly no longer working as intended. Those moments always separate illusion from reality.

The Economic Confidence Model has always shown that turning points are inevitable. Declines do not last forever, nor do booms. Christmas arrives regardless of markets, wars, or political agendas. That alone should tell us something important about resilience.

I wish you peace, clarity, and the confidence to think independently in the year ahead.

Merry Christmas!

— Martin Armstrong and the Armstrong Economics team