OK. I suppose it was just a matter of time. In Thailand, a clever thief drilled into car’s fuel tank to steal the gasoline. In the United States, people are complaining about the fuel cost of $5 a gallon. In Europe, they sell it by the liter. In Europe, when on par with the United States, one gallon is now running for $10 a gallon. With the model projecting that we can see oil run-up to over $200 in 2023, we are looking at crazy times in energy which will come back as civil unrest.
Klaus Schwab’s view of the future and Artificial Intelligence is seriously flawed. He argues that the fusing of the political, physical, digital, and biological worlds will have a transformative impact on every facet of human existence. He insists that this will range from the way we live our lives, the manner in which we will work, the reconfiguration of economic models, the products we sell, and I believe his self-delusion, the power to extend our lives indefinitely. Of course, his cohort, Yuval Noah Harari, dreams of converting society into programmed robots. Meanwhile, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla dreams of putting chips in every pill that confirms to a central database that you took his latest creation.
Schwab’s Fourth Industrial Revolution is seriously flawed for he has no understanding of actual real AI programming. Yes, insofar as AI is concerned, I do not believe in the view that if you throw in mountains of data, somehow the computer will evolve and figure it all out and come up with a force or conclusion. They did that at IBM with Big Blue. They thought it would find the cure for cancer – it failed. There is something more that makes our brain function. It is NOT just a neural net and consciousness somehow emerges because of all the connections. Granted, they try to mimic the brain and look upon us as simply a biological lifeform without actually understanding there is something much deeper.
Perhaps the night you suddenly fell in love with your partner. You were out to dinner, and your unconscious mind actually recorded everything — the place, the food, the music, what they wore. You consciously are not actually noticing all these variables. But years later, you hear that song, taste that same food, or revisit the place. Suddenly, without even trying to remember, the event is relived. You can close your eyes and see the event as if it were a recorded movie. Our brain is actually recording everything without us even trying. Creating a neural net and dumping all this information in there does not recreate that ability.
Sigmund Freud (1856- 1939) and Carl Gustav Jung (1875–1961) dived very deeply into the construct of the mind. Their view of our unconscious was the result of very deep self-analysis. Socrates is different. I created pathways and taught it how to analyze. I spend a lot of time self-analyzing how I would trade, and what I would look at as an international hedge fund manager. I had to understand how the mind actually worked both on the conscious and unconscious levels.
Because I knew I was not going to be a world globe trotter again, I got a dog. She has taught me about how the mind also works. She thinks. She has a strategy. She has the same range of emotions that we have from boredom to excitement. I can see her thinking. She clearly communicates through her eyes and body language. There is an innate ability to communicate with dogs that has evolved over the centuries, which is one of the primary reasons our canine-human love affair has gone on for centuries. There is a distinct dog-human interspecies understanding that is extraordinary, but it also is a glimpse into ourselves. She anticipates where I will go when I get up and will gently let me know when she is hungry. But to my astonishment, she will play ball, but then will try to make me go fetch. She would bang her bowl if it was out of the water, but then if she wanted me to stop working, she would bang the bowl because she knew that sound would cause me to come out of the office.
There is a whole other aspect to not just our mind, but how even a dog thinks, which reveals to me that the failure in AI with machine learning is that it is one-dimensional. There is a far deeper level of activity beyond our conscious mind that they try to duplicate with neural nets. My dog has indeed reinforced my understanding of how to really construct AI, which is substantially different from the one-dimensional neural net.
My dog understands so many words that it is astonishing. I was talking with a friend and just mentioned the word “dog,” and she got up and immediately ran to the window to see what dog dared to enter her domain. If I say we are going shopping, she goes to the front door. If I say we are going to take a walk, she runs to the back door. She obviously understands far more language than I ever expected. A 2020 study by researchers at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary discovered that, while dogs may not pick up minute details in human speech, they can, in fact, comprehend their owners’ most basic words.
What she has taught me is that even a dog has a conscious and unconscious mind. She dreams as we go. It is really amazing when you pay attention. This is just far more involved than creating a one-dimensional neural net, throwing a bunch of data in, shaking (not stirring), and hoping for the best. Their theory that accelerating the ability to calculate and adding parameters to models was not really a game-changer. The models are faster, and playing a game of chess or Jeopardy, they can beat a human because they have the ability to test every possible outcome in a few minutes. But that is the problem. They can wow everyone with speed, but they CAN NOT create something new. That was the failure of IBM’s Big Blue.
Creativity REQUIRED imagination, and expanding the nodes and speed does not lead to imagination. Without imagination, we cannot create a real game-changer. Thus, all the AI that Schwab cheers will lead the world into his Fourth Industrial Revolution is missing the critical ingredient, which does not exist in the conscious mind but is buried in the unconscious realm where we hide our talents, dreams, and our long lost memories. This is why Socrates has provided forecasting that is even original.
So I have taken a different approach. Socrates is NOT a one-dimensional neural net. Don’t worry. It will not suddenly come alive and decide to wipe out the inferior species known as humans. But the world Schwab envisions is not real. It only leads, not to the critical ability of creativity, which exists only in freedom, but to oppression and conformity precisely as the result of Marx’s experiment we call socialism/communism. Communism collapsed because it suppressed creativity. That also necessitates FREEDOM.
History will unfold today as NASA and SpaceX launch astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley to the International Space Station. This mission marks the first time since the retirement of the space shuttle in 2011 that humans will fly to the space station from U.S. soil. Targeted Launch Time 4:33pm EDT – Livestreams Ongoing
NASA and SpaceX are providing live coverage from launch to arrival at the space station. Teams are targeting 4:33 p.m. EDT for the launch of the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft atop a Falcon 9 rocket from historic Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
The Crew Dragon is scheduled to dock to the space station at 11:29 a.m. Thursday, May 28.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross contrasts the importance of the latest U.S. SpaceX launch in an era when China is increasingly expressing communist control over Hong Kong. Within the interview Secretary Ross outlines the likelihood of an economic response toward Beijing to countermand aggressive geopolitical ambitions.
Shifting high-tech industrial manufacturing away from China, back to the United States, is an important component in the strategic U.S. economic approach.
Fox News talking hair Leland Vitter uses his best dramatic voice, channels his inner Shep, and proclaims the end of the known universe is nigh, because the power went out in a part of Manhattan, New York City. Evacuations, crisis, no stoplights… oh, my.
OMG… “pitch black”, it’s the beginning of the zombie apocalypse or something, only this time they’re bringing hashtags!
New York – A power failure struck the West Side of Manhattan on Saturday evening, plunging subway stations into darkness, stalling trains, stranding people in elevators and for a time leaving parts of Times Square without its customary bright lights.
Con Edison said that about 42,000 customers were without power, mainly on the West Side. The Fire Department said the failures stretched from 72nd Street to the West 40s, and from Fifth Avenue to the Hudson River.
“Unfortunately, we do not have an estimated restoration at this time,” Con Edison said. “Our crews are working as quickly and safely as they can to restore service.”
The New York City Council speaker, Corey Johnson, said on Twitter that there had been a “major disturbance” at Con Edison’s 49th Street substation, and that the utility was working to fix it. He said the A, C, F, D and M subway lines were affected. (read more)
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your Global Market Watch picked the high in bonds perfectly and called it a major high. I have to say, the system you have created monitoring everything is an incredible teaching tool. I can see what you are saying. There is a major global trend that politicians cannot alter and that is why communism fell and socialism is falling now. Do you believe we can advance this time around when it crashes and burns?
ANSWER: Believe it or not, I am an eternal optimist; foolish at times. I gave up trying to help behind the curtain because I came to witness how politics works. You can tell a politicians to do this or there will be a crash. They will not listen for a simple reason. No politician can run for office saying, “Vote for me, I saved your job.” You would ask, “How do I know I would have lost it?” Politics is about winning. It is far better to run for office by promising change but never delivering. The political situation is simple. They like the crisis for then they launch investigations to get the guy who caused it. They will never prevent it, for that does not have the same impact at the polls.
Society goes through these convulsions roughly every 309 years or so. They build in intensity and that is what we now face — the Sixth Wave. On the cyclical time line, we are at the point where the collapse of Rome came about with the Sixth Wave back then.
Before that, there was the Minoan Collapse.
This is the third major wave. Either we go into a Dark Age, as took place after the last two groups, or we advance. I would like to think we can do this and reform the way things work. Maybe I am just wrong and we will fail. I realize the only way to take that one giant leap for humankind is if the PEOPLE understand why we never advance and say enough is enough.
So the more people we can move to understand the business cycle and DEMAND change, the better chance we have of taking a leap forward instead of backwards.
The ECM will still exist. We cannot alter that. The volatility (intensity) we can influence perhaps. Of course, the Minoan collapse was instigated by one of the largest volcanic eruptions in history — Thera (Santorini). The fall of Rome came with climate change when everything turned down much colder and resulted in the invasions of the barbarians who were migrating South.
These groups of Six Waves tend to coincide with the collapse in the energy output of the sun. The climate change we are heading into is by no means global warming, it is back down to record cold. That is not good in the least for civilization.
QUESTION: Hi, how are you? I hope you fine. I work with business intelligence for 9 years until now, and I’m decided improve my skills on Machine Learning field. I have searched for studies programs in universities, etc, but have found nothing, honest and simple, to be compared by thoughts, oppnions and views from Mr. Armstrong on his website. I would like to know whether there is Artificial Intelligence study program by Armstrong Economics available. I’m REALLY INTERESTED on it.
Cheers from Brazil.
JS Data Analyst
ANSWER: Machine learning is the cutting-edge science of programming computers to act without being expressly programmed to act in a specific manner. Over the last decade, machine learning has opened the door to efficient speech recognition, effective web searches such as Google, and self-driving cars. Machine learning is changing the way we interact with computers and has become so embedded in many aspects of technology today that you probably use it numerous times each day without even knowing you are using it.
True machine learning is the way to the future where we can achieve human-level computers without emotion. There are machine learning techniques I have developed that are strictly proprietary, and I am implementing them to accomplish a comprehensive way of managing the understanding of the global economy and how everything fits together to create a dynamic working composite that has moved beyond theoretical underpinnings of learning. Trying to expand these techniques into other fields including medicine would be a nice long-term goal. I do not offer any course on how to do this. The practical know-how is extensive and attempting to apply these techniques to new problems in other fields is time consuming. I’m not even sure I could get to all these in one lifetime.
Once we launch, then we may be open for some apprenticeships. Right now, unfortunately, we have space only for those who have some experience in this field of machine learning. We are functioning at probably light years ahead of anyone in the field of finance or economics. Trying to write something from scratch would take years if not more than a decade. Then you have to have the track record for serious money to even think about using it. We have the reputation, track record, and the outright experience in this field. These are not things that can be duplicated so easily.
So right now, unfortunately, experience is necessary in machine learning to join our team. We do not offer courses just yet. Perhaps one day.