History will unfold today as NASA and SpaceX launch astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley to the International Space Station. This mission marks the first time since the retirement of the space shuttle in 2011 that humans will fly to the space station from U.S. soil. Targeted Launch Time 4:33pm EDT – Livestreams Ongoing
NASA and SpaceX are providing live coverage from launch to arrival at the space station. Teams are targeting 4:33 p.m. EDT for the launch of the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft atop a Falcon 9 rocket from historic Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
The Crew Dragon is scheduled to dock to the space station at 11:29 a.m. Thursday, May 28.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross contrasts the importance of the latest U.S. SpaceX launch in an era when China is increasingly expressing communist control over Hong Kong. Within the interview Secretary Ross outlines the likelihood of an economic response toward Beijing to countermand aggressive geopolitical ambitions.
Shifting high-tech industrial manufacturing away from China, back to the United States, is an important component in the strategic U.S. economic approach.
Fox News talking hair Leland Vitter uses his best dramatic voice, channels his inner Shep, and proclaims the end of the known universe is nigh, because the power went out in a part of Manhattan, New York City. Evacuations, crisis, no stoplights… oh, my.
OMG… “pitch black”, it’s the beginning of the zombie apocalypse or something, only this time they’re bringing hashtags!
New York – A power failure struck the West Side of Manhattan on Saturday evening, plunging subway stations into darkness, stalling trains, stranding people in elevators and for a time leaving parts of Times Square without its customary bright lights.
Con Edison said that about 42,000 customers were without power, mainly on the West Side. The Fire Department said the failures stretched from 72nd Street to the West 40s, and from Fifth Avenue to the Hudson River.
“Unfortunately, we do not have an estimated restoration at this time,” Con Edison said. “Our crews are working as quickly and safely as they can to restore service.”
The New York City Council speaker, Corey Johnson, said on Twitter that there had been a “major disturbance” at Con Edison’s 49th Street substation, and that the utility was working to fix it. He said the A, C, F, D and M subway lines were affected. (read more)
Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis
Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Do you concur with the IMF WARNING?
ANSWER: The IMF said: “No financial regulatory framework can or should aim to reduce the probability of crisis to zero, so regulators should remain humble.” What the IMF is warning about is the risk of interest rates rising and countries who have borrowed in dollars are presenting a major Emerging Market Debt Crisis. Then we have the two-fold risk is the currency and the interest rates. Many others have borrowed but with floating rates. Our model is warning that rates are going to more than DOUBLE. In the face of that probability, we are looking at a very distinct and unique type of debt crisis.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted Oct 8, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I love when you educate us about the weather, especially the cycles. the NAPOLEON story killed me !!! I’m a french and believe me, nobody talked in school about the weather cycles when he tried to fight Russia and lost everything. I read 3 times your chart which plots the temperatures and the cycle initiated by the volcano a few years ago. you are enough smart to guess that French teachers NEVER talk this story under this angle of cooling temperatures…
REPLY: When you correlate everything you see the patterns. Sure, at Waterloo, the French used CANNONS while the British used CANISTERS. On the day of the battle, it rained a lot. The ground was very muddy, soft and wet mud. In that weather and ground conditions, cannons were not as effective. It was more than just the weapons. In those weather conditions, Napoleon delayed and that cost him the battle. But had the weather been dry, things may have been different. The cold clearly beat Napoleon on his attempted invasion of Russia.
There is also the Human Excitability Study where war was correlated to sunspot activity. The sunspot cycle is roughly every eleven years. However, this time it’s different. The sun is headed for a very rare, super-cooling period that threatens to topple civilization itself as it has throughout history roughly following a 300-year cycle.
For most of its history, science believed the sun’s output was constant. They finally realized that a thermal dynamic cycle beats like your heart so the sun could not exist if it was a steady outflow of energy. One degree less and it would blow itself out. Hence, it is cyclical rising and falling in intensity.
The eleven-year cycle in sunspots itself builds in intensity like the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) reaching “grand maxima” and “grand minima” over the course of 300 years. The last grand maximum peaked circa 1958, after which the sun has been steadily quieting down. Today, the drop in activity is at its steepest in 9,300 years, which is being ignored by the Global Warming propaganda.
The last Maunder Minimum, during which the sun languished for seventy years, took place from 1645 to 1715 when the sun’s brightness declined and the number of sunspots collapsed to almost zero. We are seeing almost zero so far in 2018.
Alexander Leonidovich Tchijevsky (1897-1964) did a study on sunspot and human activity. He found that humans responded even creating wars with the swings in sunspot activity. He may be most notable for his use of historical research (historiometry) techniques to link the 11-year solar cycle, Earth’s climate and the mass activity of peoples. Just after World War I, Tchijevsky published a book on cycle theory. Perhaps the title was not destined to make the book a smash hit, but it might take a big breath away before you finish reading the last word. The title was: “Investigation of the Relationship Between the Sunspot Activity and the Course of the Universal Historical Process from the V Century B.C. to the Present Day.”
The title is a bit of a long-winded oddity suggesting that human nature becomes more excited during the increased periods of sunspot activity. Whether or not Tchijevsky proved his theory that we are all driven by sunspots, much in the same manner as the moon drives the tides of the seas is another subject which I am not too certain about. Tchijevsky’s work is an interesting collection of knowledge that does illustrate a pattern within human activity.
Tchijevsky did prove that man became more excited every 11 years which did correspond to the know 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. He gathered data from 72 nations from 500 B.C. to 1922. Throughout the 2,422 years, he included such factors of human excitability as war, riots, revolutions, expeditions, and migrations. He took into consideration the magnitude of the event, the size of the area affected, and the number of people involved. The charts that are reproduced here give a very interesting cyclical view of man’s activity which you can call emotion or excitability.
The Tchijevsky cycle clearly indicates that every 11 year cycle period can be broken down into four distinct periods. Period #1 has a duration of three years which is marked by peace, passiveness, and general rule by minorities. Period #2 has a duration of two years in which general excitability grows from political unrest. New ideas or concepts emerge which tend to challenge the party in controL These ideas become popular answers to present day problems but there is a definite lack of a uniting force. Period #3 again has a duration of three years. Under this period the public’s voice is heard. Under a dictatorship, this has been the strongest period of mass riots and revolutions in which major problems are solved. At times, anarchy does prevail but generally democratic reforms are gained. Period #4 has a duration again of about three years. The general excitability declines, and the people go along contented in a state of apathetic moods. Peace movements usually are generated during this period. The masses prosper and go about their normal course of life awaiting the sun to set and the new light of dawn which brings the beginning of a new cycle.
Reflect for a moment about these four distinct periods. Looking at our own recent political history, we see a similarity between this cycle and our preference towards political parties. For example. we had a cycle of peace and passiveness following World War II culminating in the peak of period #3 during the Johnson term. We entered period #4 bringing in President Nixon as everyone went about their business. Gradually we entered period #1 which brought about the Watergate affair resulting in the Ford administration and period #2 which has a duration of 2 years. Jimmy Carter arrived in town ushering in period #3 which is the peak on the 11-year cycle that normally contains revolution of political unrest. This brought about period #4 when we revolted against the Inflationary policies of the Democrats by voting in President Reagan with a sense of returning back to passiveness and old standards and goals.
Who knows if these events indeed were caused by sunspot activity? Perhaps the sunspots do affect our emotions in much the same manner as the moon can move the ocean from side to side. But the fact that remains is this: a cycle does exist. You can find no century on this chart that was ever lacking such human excitability. We are indeed “only human” to capture a saying normally invoked for human error. We have all heard that history repeats itself. Perhaps it is not history that repeats so much as human error. We are not immortal. We have not lived constantly throughout time. We die and are replaced by new generations. Each generation tends to believe that they are smarter than the last, failing to accurately study the errors made by previous generations; they will make the same mistakes.
Perhaps the events might differ but the result is always the same. Just as the Crusaders charged off to the Middle East to free the holy land from pagan Arabs, as they viewed it, we charged off into Europe to set the world free from the madness of Hitler; both resulted in worldwide wars so the events may have been different but the motives, passions, and outcomes were the same.
Tchijevsky’s attempt to relate man’s excitability to sunspot activity did accomplish one thing significant. His life’s work may not have proved or disproved his sunspot theory, however, it did provide us with evidence that man’s excitability, or emotions as I prefer to call it, moves within a cyclical pattern that can be identified
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Ok, it is time to all hold hands and jump up and down a few times to set the Earth back in line. The latest is that since 1899, humans are now also causing the Earth’s axis of spin to shift about 34 feet (10.5 meters). Now, research quantifies the reasons why and finds that a third is due to melting ice and rising sea levels, particularly in Greenland—placing the blame on the doorstep of anthropogenic climate change. Another third of the wobble is due to land masses expanding upward as the glaciers retreat and lighten their load. The final portion is the fault of the slow churn of the mantle, the viscous middle layer of the planet. My solution is obvious that we are all to blame and we should begin a program of gradual suicide to save the planet. Those who discovered all this harm humans are doing should set a good example and lead the way for the rest of us to follow. Does anyone want to second that vote?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Oct 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I live in Indonesia. I am amazed that the entire world is not known on your door. I understand that your model puts everything together and provides a whole new perspective. Your warning that here in the Pacific Ring of Fire we should expect a trend of increasing volcanoes and earthquakes has been incredibly accurate. Why do government not listen?
ANSWER: I am deeply sorry that so many people died this week. For those who are not aware, the Mount Soputan volcano in Indonesia erupted on Wednesday, throwing ash as high as 4,000 meters into the sky. This came just days after a major earthquake and tsunami then killed more than 1,400 people on the same island. These things correlate to the solar energy output.
Keep in mind that Solar Minimum does not mean that the sun gets colder but rather it changes. Until it’s not. As sunspots fade away, we enter solar minimum. The sun is heading toward solar minimum now and the sunspot counts are collapsing. While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar minimum, the solar activity changes form. During solar minimum, this is when the sun develops coronal holes. These are vast regions in the sun’s atmosphere where the sun’s magnetic field opens up. This then allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.
These holes throughout the solar cycle during solar minimum can last for a very long time even up to six months or more. Streams of this solar wind flowing from these coronal holes create space weather effects near Earth as they hit our magnetic field. These effects can include temporary disturbances called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to communications and navigation systems. These are the effects of solar minimum. These effects in the Earth’s upper atmosphere impacts satellites in low Earth orbit as well. However, on our computer, they also correlate to these periods of an increase in volcanoes and earthquakes.
All I can do is warn from the correlations. I am not presenting a theory as to how they are also causing perhaps geomagnetic disturbance which may go into the Earth itself cause these phenomena. I leave that for specialists to ascertain. Nevertheless, I think this has more influence than driving the kids to practice at school
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Oct 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
It is not looking very good for the winter ahead. A reader from Calgary sent this picture in about the early snowfall up there. Indeed, Calgary just experienced the Snowiest Day in More Than Three Decades. It Broke an October Snowfall Record. Of course, they will call this Global Warming as well. This is just a taste of this winter to come.
Already, the data is now in for September. The world just had the coldest September for a decade, according to the latest satellite measurements by the University of Alabama at Huntsville. Naturally, mainstream media will not cover this story. They only like to report how we are destroying the planet and everything is all our fault.
Since the governments have handed out $1 billion for these people to create Global Warming forecasts to justify more taxes, there is not a cold day in hell why they would even give us $5 for a correlation study that shows the opposite. Why fund something that does not produce more taxes?
Well, besides growing food in your basement, perhaps you should buy a sewing machine to make long-underwear to sell to the neighbors when they realize it’s getting colder rather than warmer
Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture
Re-Posted Oct 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
The sun is entering perhaps one of the deepest Solar Minima in thousands of years. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018. This is really alarming. Since the start of 2018, there have been totally spotless days for weeks. The sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply declined and this is not going to end well.
We can see that this decline in Solar Cycle #24 has been a rapid decline that is twice as fast than any previously. Already the the upper atmosphere is losing heat energy. NASA has conceded that if the current trend continues, this could become a dramatic cold period far worse than many people suspect. The Global Warming crowd is leading the world down a dangerous path because they have been paid $1 billion to create fake research in order to raise taxes as they have been doing in Europe and Canada. Our computer us projecting a very serious decline in sunspot activity. This will be the backdrop to the rise in agricultural prices we see between 2020 and 2024. Of course, thanks to the Global Warming people, it will be too late to prepare