Posted originally on CTH on August 28, 2025 | Sundance
From an initial report of 3.0% to a revised report of 3.3% second quarter growth. [BEA report HERE] Not a surprise, when we factor in the prediction we presented after the first quarter GDP.
However, it is nice to see the BEA finally admit, “The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.” I digress.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy rebounded this spring from a first-quarter downturn due to fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
In an upgrade from its first estimate in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — expanded at a 3.3% annual pace from April through June after shrinking 0.5% in the first three months of 2025. The department had initially estimated second-quarter growth at 3%.
The first-quarter GDP drop, the first retreat of the U.S. economy in three years, was mainly caused by a surge in imports — which are subtracted from GDP — as businesses scrambled to bring in foreign goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs. That trend reversed as expected in the second quarter: Imports fell at a 29.8% pace, boosting April-June growth by more than 5 percentage points.
The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending and private investment were a bit stronger in the second quarter than it had first estimated.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, grew at a 1.6% annual pace, lackluster but better than 0.5% in the first quarter and the 1.4% the government initially estimated for the second. (read more)
The recession will have to wait, as the economy continues to grow, and while receipts from tariffs continue to pay down the federal debt companies are investing in U.S. at a historic rate.
Centinel2012 