Strategy – Will President Trump Break Norms and Arrange Meeting With Kim Jong-un? Indications Point Toward Yes…


An interesting article in the Washington Times poses a possibility of President Trump holding a deconfliction summit with North Korea –SEE HERE– And that begs a question of whether or not it’s actually plausible. I would state unequivocally yes, and here’s why.

If you have followed the foreign policy pattern of President Trump you immediately recognize he does not restrain himself to DC political customs or DC political norms. Indeed as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi optimistically noted, President Trump can accomplish many things because he brings a unique perspective to the world of policy and diplomatic engagement. Later repeating: “He Can Do The Impossible“.

Additionally since we originally outlined the likely scenario for a restart of the ‘six party talks‘ (China, South Korea, Russia, Japan and the U.S.), on August 13th, there has been some visible activity providing further evidence toward that end.

•Japan (Shinzo Abe) has stated they have “great confidence” in President Trump’s Asian national security approach. •South Korea (President Moon Jae-in) has stated they are “confident there will not be war again on the Korean peninsular“; •and they are willing to send a special envoy to North Korea to begin talks. •In addition, China has quietly removed the 71-year-old veteran diplomat, Wu Dawei, from the position of negotiator toward the DPRK, and replaced him with 58-year-old Kong Xuanyou. Kong is a long time Chinese diplomat in charge of Asian affairs and he speaks Korean.

All of this generally under-reported diplomatic activity has taken place within the past week while the American media was busy pushing Charlottesville narratives.  But more importantly this activity took place while President Trump directed USTR Lighthizer to begin a section 301 trade investigation into China.  POTUS Trump is ramping up the pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping, but more specifically this action targets Beijing’s communist old guard who control both their economy and the DPRK behavior.

Additionally, into this uniquely Asian geopolitical dynamic we have India, and Prime Minister Modi, apparently finding some new energy to push back against their neighboring nemesis China.  Literal “pushing back“, heck they got into a fist fight.

Now, between Trump’s China trade action, and Modi’s regional geographic action, there appears to be a traditional squeeze play working out.  It would be intellectually dishonest not to recognize the appearance of some coordination, especially given the plans for Ivanka Trump to travel to India next month.  [*nudge, nudge* *wink, wink* say-no-more]

Here’s where it gets interesting.

When you understand that Beijing is really the support structure for Kim Jong-Un, in that China uses the DPRK to keep the Western (mostly U.S.) economic threats out of Asia, you realize it’s against Beijing’s interest for President Trump and Kim Jong-un to deconflict.

If diplomacy prevails in the Korean Peninsular, the historic economic arrow is gone from China’s quiver.  Indeed, many would argue there’s no greater threat to China’s overall ‘One-Road/One-Belt’ economic program.  With peace comes viable economic relationships.  The ability of China to use the DPRK as a sweatshop for their economy would potentially and realistically collapse.

So Beijing would want to impede diplomatic efforts.  It’s in their sneaky-self best interests; it’s also just how they roll.  However, even though China controls much of the Washington DC swamp via purchased lobby activity, they can’t control Trump; and they certainly can’t control Trump’s diplomatic approach toward engaging a foreign government.

Therefore China’s default position would be for China to ‘control‘ any meeting between the U.S., South Korea, and/or Japan, with Kim Jong-un.  When you recognize this, you recognize what that provides – MORE TRUMP LEVERAGE.

See how that works?

POTUS Trump knows it would be against Beijing’s interests for Kim Jong-un to meet a reasonable and non-political deal maker like President Trump.  That knowledge only fuels the probability of such a meeting taking place.

In an effort to control such a possibility, China will have to move fast to cut off any back channel discussion between Godzilla Trump, T-Rex and Dennis Rodman’s BFF Kim Jong-un.  Hence, we discover the motive for Beijing working to quickly get Kong Xuanyou, the new emissary, into place.  China is simply trying a better play for control by putting ‘six party talks’ back on the table.

Don’t be surprised to hear of those “six party talks” within days or weeks.  And don’t be surprised to hear of the potential for direct talks and direct engagement with North Korea either by South Korea or Japan, or by…. wait for it, yup Godzilla Trump via T-Rex.

President Trump isn’t constrained to DC political customs and diplomatic outlooks of non-engagement with North Korea.  Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make a move within the next 30 days toward those ends.

After all, almost every bit of recent activity in Asia dovetails nicely with the position as it appeared only a little more than a week ago: August 13th:

As we have outlined extensively, President Trump holds all of the cards in this economic and trade standoff. The U.S. is China’s customer and there’s a $350 billion trade deficit.

However, President Trump cannot be completely open with the strategy because part of the long-term plan is to allow China to save face by giving up North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

It would be against Trump’s interests if the entire global and geopolitical community understood what was happening.

So the question becomes, how will we know when President Trump has won in the economic and national security challenge?   Well, first let’s look at the geopolitical landscape and the known and identified calendar to view the goal timeline:

♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.

♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year.  Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.

So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.

::::smiling:::::

Yup.

Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Narendra Modi hugs.

President Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship.  China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Ballywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.

Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.

Strategery.

::::still smiling::::

Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards.  Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall.  The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.

Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy the strategery:

From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.

President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.

The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted adversaries like Russia, Iran etc. and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.

President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.

President Trump thinks so far out in front of his detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.

Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.

::::Yup, smiling::::

So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.

China will structure the DPRK talking points to set up the meetings.  This is a part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.

The six party talks will be essentially a Marshal Plan of sorts for North Korea.  Japan, South Korea, The United States, China, Russia and North Korea will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy and reducing tension.

President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.

Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.

President Trump’s golf partner Shinzo Abe will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along.  The only real negotiations will be between the U.S. Russia and China.  Russia will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again, and China negotiating to retain as much of the $500 billion trade surplus as possible.

The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; the U.N. enters under carefully negotiated terms, and Big Panda promises to the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein.  Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.

That’s essentially the way the bright economic and national security future looks today.

Then again, it might get brighter – gilded even.

After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.

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Erdogan Tells Turks in Germany to Vote Against Merkel


While the Democrats want to make a huge issue out of Russia hacking their files and releasing evidence that they were truly corrupt and how Clinton was just a liar blaming Russia rather than themselves, interference in the elections of other countries is par for the course. I have reported how Obama has interfered in Canada, Britain, and France. This is standard operational procedure. Now Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan publicly told all Turks living in Germany to vote against Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats on September 24th.

For Erdogan to publicly try to influence the German elections as Obama did in Britain tell them to get to the  ‘back of queue‘ if they voted for BREXIT, demonstrates the lack of unity between the NATO allies and major trade partners.

Ties between Ankara and Berlin have been strained in the aftermath of last year’s failed coup as Turkish authorities have sacked or suspended 150,000 people and detained more than 50,000 people, including German nationals. Erdogan’s response has been to Merkel’s voiced concern that he has used the coup as a pretext to quash dissent in Turkey. Erdogan has adopted a clear authoritarian role for himself trying to tie it to the roots in political Islam. Erdogan has accused Merkel of being anti-Turkish and anti-Muslim. He pronounced:

“I am calling on all my countrymen in Germany: the Christian Democrats, SDP, the Green Party are all enemies of Turkey. Support those political parties who are not enemies of Turkey,” 

“I call on them not to vote for those parties who have been engaged in such aggressive, disrespectful attitudes against Turkey, and I invite them to teach a lesson to those political parties at the ballot box.” 

The tensions between Germany and Turkey are on a crash course between 2018 and 2020.

Angela Merkel is being Called a Traitor for the Refugee Crisis


The EU has abandoned Italy while simultaneously demanding that the refugees must be taken care of. Nearly 100,000 refugees have arrived in Italy since the start of this year alone. The Italian government cannot cope with the refugee crisis and Brussels said they cannot exempt them from the restraint of busgets. That means that money for Italians must be diverted to the refugees and they keep coming.

Italy is being pushed to the limit and cannot possible cope with this burden alone while Brussels refuses to compensate them. Let any country refuse to accept refugees and Brussels is quick to condemn them, but wont pay for them itself.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is solely responsible for the refugee crisis. She is starting to be greeted with shouts of “traitor” by discontent German protesters. Nevertheless, Merkel continues to defend her decision to allow hundreds of thousands of refugees into the Germany.

Merkel only received 16,233,642 votes during the 2013 election which was  37.2% of the popular vote of Germany. So the majority of Germans are really not supporting Merkel. Because they get to form collation governments, that someone who received less that any President in the political history of the USA gets to run Euorpe. Even Donald Trump won  46.1% of the American popular vote. So someone who would never get into office under the USA system gets to dominate Europe.

Steven Bannon Fired


Comment added by Centinel2012: There are two sides to the Bannon story I agree with Martin on the economic side but I do not agree on the political side. However, both sides need to be be shown so this is the economics side.

Steve Bannon has been fired  from the Trump team, and many are saying good reddens. It was Bannon who has been the one with the most confrontational approach and has really been clashing behind the curtail. Bannon said in the interview that the main front was China: “We are in a trade war with China” and if the US were not to win this war, they would fall back as a world power permanently into insignificance. Bannon’s statement is really absurd for he has clearly no real understanding of the world economy. His focus of China and trade is the same stupid reason James Baker created the G5 back in 1985. We are plagued by people who pontificate on the world economy with zero experience.

Bannon is an American media executive, formerly a film producer, who served in the Navy for 7 years and then worked at Goldman Sachs as an investment banker mergers and acquisition but never rose very high. In the 1990s, he became an executive producer in the Hollywood film and media industry; he produced 18 films between 1991 and 2016. He may understand media, but I believe he is clueless with regard to how the world economy functions.

Bannon is being very vindictive. He has come out and said: “The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over.” He added: “We still have a huge movement, and we will make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over. It’ll be something else. And there’ll be all kinds of fights, and there’ll be good days and bad days, but that presidency is over.”

When we look at trade as a percent of net investment outflows from the United States as it has invested around the world (excluding FX trading and derivatives), we can see that going into 2007, trade fell to just 31% of net investment capital outflows. Post-2007, net investment flows out of the United States have been greatly diminished as capital contracted and began to hoard and thus trade has risen sharply as American have invested less overseas. If we really look at trade as a percentage of total capital flows globally, we are looking at less than 15%.
CAPITAL flows to developing countries between 1990 and 1997 was hailed as the way to bring them into the global markets. However, after a series of international financial crises that culminated in the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, what emerged was an increase in the doubts about the benefits of such flows. They did not distinguish between n”hot” money trading currencies rather than direct investment. This shallow analysis has led to great misunderstandings of international capital flows.
Underlining this new skepticism emerged from academic studies that implied only a weak relationship between capital flow liberalization and long-run economic growth. They did not understand the true distinction between “hot” money and actual investment in the private sector which is distinct from trading currency and government bonds.
Those concerns tempered the enthusiasm for capital inflows and have led to a reassessment of the policy approaches to attracting and managing them. Recently, this has manifested in laws that have attacked foreign investment in real estate, which is not the “hot” money that blew up the world in 1997. Nevertheless, this prejudice against capital inflows is systemic without comprehending what is really at stake.
Bannon is part of the problem for he focuses only upon trade and assumes, as did James Baker, that lowering the dollar will somehow create jobs by increasing exports. This is just a very narrow view of the world economy and is part of the crisis we face because those in power are clueless.

That Didn’t Take Long – U.S. Formally Launches Section 301 Trade Investigation On China…


It’s all connected.  The “Big Ugly” is underway.  Intellectually honest people know the CEO boards and advisory council members were on the White House team to shape and protect their collective stakes in the upcoming America First economic trade reset.  Nothing more.

The intents of the prior participants were to protect their interests, period. There was no ideological American altruism within any of the motives.   Globalists, multinationals and the participating leaders, who make their livelihoods on globalist economic expansion, were simply protecting their interests.  Fortunately for the livelihood of the American middle-class they ran into economic granite, the Monolith that is Donald Trump.  Faced with the futility of their self-interested endeavor, they exit under false pretense.  C-Ya.

With NAFTA ongoing, and freed from the original concern about undermining America-First MAGAnomics by domestic industrial leadership, which was the entire premise of assembling them in the first place; in conjunction with Big Panda telling their bag-man in the DPRK to stand down, President Trump now positioned to fire-at-will:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States on Friday formally launched an investigation into China’s alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property, a widely expected move following a call from President Donald Trump earlier this week to determine whether a probe was needed.

The probe is the administration’s first direct measure against Chinese trade practices, which the White House and U.S. business groups say are bruising American industry.

“After consulting with stakeholders and other government agencies, I have determined that these critical issues merit a thorough investigation,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the nation’s top trade negotiator, said in a statement.

Trump repeatedly railed against Chinese trade practices on the campaign trail, but as president he had not taken significant action until this week.

China had rebuffed attempts by previous American presidents to take action against its IP practices. Administration officials have said that China’s theft of U.S. intellectual property could amount to as much as $600 million.

The probe will likely further complicate the U.S. relationship with China, the country’s largest trading partner. The Trump administration has been pressing Beijing to take steps to encourage North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile programs.  (read more)

Remember, this is Trump.  Looking out for U.S. economic interests is the baseline for trade “leverage”, a tactic and skill uniquely evident in this administration’s trade team.  Section 301 is a tool, actually a massive atomic sledgehammer, to force compliance.

Historically S-301 trade investigations are considered so scary to the receiving country that almost every nation just complies with USTR requests and the investigations became moot.  The sanctions which follow the 301 investigations are rarely needed.

When trade negotiations are carried out on behalf of lobbyist interests, there’s not much need for strategy and leverage. This is the historic reference for the U.S. in the past 30 years.

In the modern era, almost all U.S. trade agreements have been constructed for political benefit and special interest lobbyists, not necessarily tied to the U.S. economy.

The results of these decades-long special interest approaches are visibly evident across most of the U.S. rust belt states. Additional reference points can be found in the historic North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA – Mexico/Canada), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP – Asia), and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP – Europe).

Much to the angst of the lobbying team within the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, President Trump has dispatched both the TPP and TTIP schemes in favor of bilateral trade deals with individual nations; and NAFTA renegotiation has started.

Last week President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a previously scheduled phone call. No doubt the keenly instinctual negotiator President Trump would give the respect of advance notice to Xi Jinping if 301 investigations are going to be announced.

Again, what is often forgotten is that modern China has never seen the U.S. launch a 301 trade investigation against it, or anyone else.  China’s rise to economic power has been within two prior decades where prior U.S. administrations’ were selling out the American economy using the World Trade Organization (WTO), created in 1995.

This is why launching a series of 301 Trade Investigations is such a big deal.  The conclusions are drawn from facts, there’s no way to skewer the data or hide the tariff that China applies to U.S. goods.  If China applies a 35% import tariff on something, Section 301 allows the U.S. to apply the same tariff to the import of that something from China.

When you grasp how much this 301 equalizer can impact trade opponents, and recognize how one-sided our trade deals are with China, you begin to grasp how devastating it will be for China if 301’s are utilized.  This is atomic sledgehammer type unidirectional leverage.  China has nothing they can do, other than the silly threats they have already made.

Now you know why China was/is using North Korea as their only bargaining chip.

Even the announcement of deploying the S-301 investigations is enough to move markets once the young traders teach themselves what the end ramifications are.

For those who think President Trump will blink on these core economic issues, or doubt the severity of his commitment to follow through on them, you only need to look upon the amount of grief he is willing to endure from opposition to stay focused on it.

If the economic council needs to disband, ok – go.  If the CEO board needs to be removed, ok- so be it.  Anything or anyone who anticipates being able to modify President Trump’s 30-year-long position and commitment to these economic issues at the heart of the core erosion of U.S. interests, finds themselves in the position of a gnat looking into a thermonuclear furnace.   Don’t be surprised to see Gary Cohn removed if he’s not part of the solution.

POTUS Trump ain’t flinching on the economic stuff.

Transgenders, bathroom policing, identity politics et al – POTUS Trump could care less what anyone agrees -or disagrees- to do in political consensus.  Send him whatever the damned thing is and he’ll sign it…. moving on.  POTUS Trump isn’t that kind of Republican; and it drives some people nuts.

POTUS Trump is looking at a much, much bigger picture than who is wearing high-heels, labels and definitions of today’s biggest PC offender.

Economics is survival.

Economics is the big stuff.

Remember these words:

…”Either we have a country or we don’t.”…

MAGA is essentially President Trump defining 2009 Tea-Party Economic outlooks in modern day 2017.

The constitution doesn’t mean much without a country within which to apply it.

Trump is seemingly one guy, yet he has them surrounded.

And he’s fighting for Big Stuff.

POTUS Trump is the Monolith, and those who oppose him be like:

Barcelona Terrorist Attack – Is Europe Lost?


Barcelona, one of the most beautiful cities in Europe, was the target of the Islamic State in their latest terrorist attack to kill people on a wholesale basis. Spain has now mounted an all out sweeping anti-terror operation after an Islamist militant drove a van into crowds in Barcelona, killing 13 people and possibly injuring 100 before fleeing, in what police suspect was one of multiple planned attacks.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the deadly attack along the city’s most famous avenue on Thursday, which was packed with tourists taking an afternoon stroll. Police said they had arrested two men, a Moroccan and a man from Spain’s north African enclave of Melilla.

Meir Bar-Hen, the Jewish Barcelona Barrister, said the Jews in Spain should not repeat the mistake of the Jews in Algeria or Venezuela: “Go ahead rather than too late.” Bar-Hen urged the Jews Spain to buy and emigrate land in Israel: “I tell my church: We are destined to perish. Europe is lost. “

This refugee crisis in Europe has been the greatest mistake perhaps in modern history. It is one things to set up camps and help people displaced by war. It is totally different to open your doors and let single men in hiding among women and children.

Cutting Through The Economic Gaslighting – A Simple MAGAnomic Reference…


Obviously there’s an awakening happening throughout the U.S. body politic.  Proof of that awakening is President Donald Trump.  CTH has long held the belief that with information, simple information, the awakening will continue.  However, the MSM have a vested interest in keeping ‘simple truth’s‘ wrapped up on complicated linguistics.

Complication serves their interests.

That said, and against the backdrop of the Atlanta Federal Reserve saying the U.S. GDP is on pace for third quarter growth at 4.0 percent. Here’s a reference point to showcase how much the American electorate have been subjected to economic gaslighting by the media.

The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is simply the sum total of all goods and services made, manufactured and delivered in the U.S.A. minus the total value of our imported goods.

When considering economic growth, you may have heard that 4.0 percent or higher GDP growth is impossible.  Allow me to remove the gaslighting from that claim.

Assume the total of U.S. GDP is $20 trillion.  To get 5% growth we would need to add $1 trillion worth of goods and/or services.

However, we are not just constrained to the adding of $1 trillion in this equation. If we use a combination of additional exports totaling $500 billion, and we simultaneously eliminate imports of $500 billion we get the same GDP benefit of $1 trillion or 5% growth.

Now it might sound challenging to lower imported goods by $500 billion.  Indeed it is the harder part of the overall equation; ergo renegotiated trade deals.  However, if we can get the import manufacturers making the stuff in the U.S, instead of overseas, it becomes easier.  Now you see why Trump is trying to pull companies into the U.S. A successful example includes FoxConn.

On the other side of the equation we have U.S. exports.  If we can export $500 billion in more stuff, and/or add $500 billion in new stuff created inside the U.S. we gain our $1 trillion, or 5%.

It might seem like a challenge to export $500 billion in products.  It’s not; this is actually the easier side of the equation.  Consider the energy sector alone.  We are exporting massive amounts of energy resources; specifically ¹coal (energy coal and coking coal) and liquified natural gas (LNG).

Examples.  A single contract, with a single company, in one single state, is a deal recently made between Texas and Ireland for LNG.   One contract worth €338 million euros, or almost $400 million dollars. (LINK) That’s just one deal in the energy sector; with one company.  There are hundreds of such deals ongoing.

¹Coal: “exports of the fuel from January through May totaled 36.79 million tons, up 60.3 percent from 22.94 million tons in the same period in 2016“, (link) and that number is skyrocketing right now as you read this.

Additionally, remember President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia?  He signed a crucial trade agreement worth “over $380 billion US Dollars“, again those are export dollars.

A simple summary that helps break through the MSM gaslighting on GDP growth the media claims is unachievable.

If we want to achieve 5% GDP growth all we need to do is generate $500 billion in additional economic activity, and reduce imports across all sectors by $500 billion.  The total of the combined action generates $1 trillion in GDP growth.

It’s a challenge, but it’s not as big of a challenge as the corporate media would have American voters believe it is.  Of course succeeding in that challenge is actually against the interests of corporate media and their overarching multinational corporate ownership, hence the gaslighting to say it’s impossible.

 

Atlanta Fed Estimates U.S. Third-Quarter GDP Growing at 4.0 percent…


“It can’t be done”, they said. “There’s no way Trump can achieve 4.0% economic growth” they said.  The Congressional Budget Office said economic projections were “improbable”, they said….  “Impossible”, they said.

Yeah, well, Donald Trump said: “Impossible is just the starting point“.  And now:

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy is on track to expand at a 4.0 percent annualized pace in the third quarter with inventory investment contributing 1.12 percentage points to growth, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now forecast model showed on Thursday. (read more)

How is this possible?  Well, if you’ve never had to wash your hands with Lava – it might seem impossible.  For those who have washed with Lava, it’s simple common sense.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, is the growth in value of all goods and services produced within the economy over a specified period of time.  A key part of that equation is the sum total of exported goods minus imported goods is part of the measure.  Only the stuff created in the U.S. increases the growth dynamic.  If you import more, the GDP shrinks.  It’s simple arithmetic.

If you grow exports, and maintain a constant on imported products, the net lowering of the trade deficit adds to GDP growth. It’s not a hard equation.  If our economy is making more stuff, our economy is growing.

Here’s the part a few of us have been talking about for a long time, and more recently when candidate Trump announced his economic plans we immediately saw the common sense behind the strategy.

Specifically within the Energy sector, Obama’s policies were shutting down energy development.  Coal mines shut down; pipelines stopped; natural gas permits held up; etc.  The sum impact was higher energy costs and more reliance on imports of foreign oil etc.   Importing energy resources shrinks the domestic economy (we ain’t making it) and lowers the GDP (we’re importing it).

Enter Trump.

President Trump unleashes the energy sector.  Coal mines reopened (energy coal and metallurgy coking coal), pipelines approved, and LNG (liquified natural gas) permits and pipelines fast-tracked, and permits for new refineries approved.  In addition to ongoing oil exploitation, the entire energy sector was quickly unleashed.

But wait, it went further.

President Trump’s energy policy initiatives took energy dependence (importing), and within months began skyrocketing toward energy independence.

But wait, it went further.

Enter Commerce Secretary Wilbur “Wilburine” Ross.

Together with President Trump, Secretary Wilbur Ross immediately began reaching out to allied nations for energy export agreements.  Within months coal (coking and energy coal) was being exported to Asia and Europe.  Massive increases in exports.

Within a few more months LNG contracts were written and approved and natural gas began being exported to Asia and Europe.   Ireland just signed a big contract  (€338,000,000) for massive shipments of Texas LNG.

Early agreements with the Arab States (Gulf Cooperation Council) to negotiate oil production levels in exchange for assistance with their domestic security initiatives (weapons sales), in combination with agreements with Emmanuel Macron (France) to drive production in Libya and North Africa, kept global oil supplies flowing.  In conjunction with our North American production increases, this energy approach has kept oil prices lower.

[It didn’t hurt to have the former CEO of Exxon-Mobil, Rex Tillerson, as our Secretary of state either.  It wasn’t his first Arabian sword dance. Almost like a plan. Much to the angst of Russia, Iran and Venezuela – go figure.]

You might have missed it, but we went straight past Memorial Day 2017 and instead of gas prices increasing, we saw them continue to drop.  First time in decades for lower gas prices at the pumps during peak summer gas use.

MagaSuperWonderWinning.

Back to the GDP growth.  Remember the equation.  Production exports minus imports are part of the bottom line GDP total. Trump’s energy sector policy specifically began increasing the export part of the energy sector.  Yes, we are exporting massive amounts of coal (both kinds), and liquified natural gas (LNG).

Every metric tonne of those exports lowers the trade deficit; and as a consequence increases the GDP.

But wait, it gets better.

This is new ground. “Exporting Energy” is an entirely new sector of economic activity.  All prior historic energy sector reference within our economy has been lowering GDP growth because we imported energy raw material (oil), and never utilized our own resources as offsets.

So yeah, the folks who wash calluses with Lava totally understand that 4% GDP growth is entirely reasonable with an entire new sector of the economy contributing toward it.  Heck, we predicted exactly this – and more.

[…]  Remember, when Donald Trump proposed his 2015 economic and tax platform? Every pundit with a microphone said Trump’s projected four percent growth was a pipe-dream. Now, amid many influential circles, there’s actually white paper discussion looking beyond that original Trump proposal and stating that six percent, seven percent and even higher economic expansion is entirely possible, if not – predictable.

Get ready….. but don’t get so busy that you forget to look around while this is happening. We are living inside history, and the journey is infinitely more fun than the destination.

America, we deserve this…

(2016 – link)

trump workers

 

  • Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International Edward Demming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering, efficiency superiority and overall quality. They didn’t blow every PhD intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen. They did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.

Because they lost the award, the Japanese spent 6 months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY….

  • When every single Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take 5 years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaiti’s and Saudi’s called Texans, who had them all capped and back in working order in 10 months.

We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.

  • When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved everyone of them….

That’s our America.

  • When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his seven virgins, began opening fire on a train in France, the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little nut with a death wish.

Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us.  That’s just how we roll.

Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre.  Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable storyline that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.

Enough.

When I hear Donald Trump say “Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.

It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again.   Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.

Yeah, “let’s Make America Great Again”.  Swagger on !

As Predicted – Washington Swamp Worried Trump Won’t Spend Enough Money…


This is one of those paradigm shift CTH predictions that many people scoffed at back in 2015/2016 when we discussed a Trump federal budget, and how Washington DC politicians would respond to a president who actually planned to cut spending.  Back in February we warned:

[…] The UniParty is going to fight hard, very hard, to retain their spending. Don’t be surprised to see GOPe “conservatives” demanding President Trump spend more money. We have been repeating this warning since he announced his bid for the presidency in 2015. (link)

Today’s headline reads “Fears Grow That Trump Could Ignore Congress on Spending“. Traditional thinking, at first glance of the headline, would be the President might ignore budgetary levels and spend more than he should. However, in reality, the paradigm shift is the exact opposite.  DC is worried that President Trump won’t spend enough money.

Let that sink in for a minute.

THAT’S a prime example of: A.) evidence of the DC UniParty; and, B.) how ridiculously dysfunctional and broken the federal budgetary and spending process has become.  DC lawmakers are now consulting attorneys and planning to sue the President and force him to spend money.

WASHINGTON – Lawmakers and activists are preparing for the possibility that President Donald Trump’s administration, in its zeal to slash the federal budget, will take the rare step of deliberately not spending all the money Congress gives it — a move sure to trigger legal and political battles.

The concern is mainly focused on the State Department, where Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has drawn criticism for failing to spend $80 million allocated by Congress to fight Russian and terrorist propaganda and for trying to freeze congressionally authorized fellowships for women and minorities. Activists and congressional officials fear such practices could take hold at other U.S. departments and agencies under Trump.

“We’ve seen just too many instances these past few months … where there is clear congressional intent and funds provided, yet an unwillingness or inability to act,” Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement to POLITICO.

Advocacy groups are consulting lawyers and gathering information on current spending and the laws that govern the budget; one nongovernmental-organization network is even surveying humanitarian organizations to gather more facts. Capitol Hill staffers are scouring the fine print of appropriations bills, hunting for loopholes that would allow the executive branch to slow down or stop spending.  (read more)

It’s bizzarro world.

Good grief. Republicans control the House and Senate.  Republicans don’t need a single Democrat to pass a budget. Not one.  The House originates a budget with a simple majority, and the Senate passes it with reconciliation (51 votes).  [That’s actually the primary and original intent of the “reconciliation” process in the senate.]

We haven’t had a federal budget in a decade.  The last federal budget was signed into law by George W. Bush in September of 2007 for fiscal year 2008.  The entire Obama presidency went two terms without a single budget ever passed by congress and signed into law.

Now, the same DC apparatus who intentionally avoided any spending restrictions during the Obama years is suing the first year Trump administration for not spending money.

spending-graph-2

♦ President Trump is proposing a 10% first year increase in defense spending.  That equals approximately $54 billion more for defense.   If you look at the income from his projected GDP growth (4% = $200 billion), you can see how easily that expenditure is covered.

♦ President Trump is proposing significant wholesale cuts to all other departments including Dept of State and EPA.  The U.S. State Department has over 70,000 employees, that alone is ridiculous.  Easily the DoS can eliminate 20% of staff, and find efficiencies well beyond those numbers.

Essentially, President Trump’s proposed budget outline (full pdf and explanation here) is a decrease of 10% per department.  Easily attainable, especially when you consider these departments have been operating at around 3% rates of growth due to nine years of base-line budget growth without a federal budget in place.

You only need to look back to 2006 to see federal spending was under $3 trillion.  Fiscal year 2008 was the last year we had a federal budget  in place.  Every year since then has been continuing resolutions, omnibus spending, debt ceiling increases and base-line budget growth (spend 3% more) based on prior year expenditures.

President Trump is the first President in 30 years to actually propose a budget that reduces spending in whole numbers from the prior year.

President Trump is proposing a reduction in actual spending, not a reduction in the rate of growth of spending. Remember, 3% of the proposed cut is just not spending more than the prior year (that’s the base-line budget growth); consequently depending on the department the actual cut is much less than 10%.

The UniParty is going to fight hard, very hard, to retain their spending.   Don’t be surprised to see GOPe “conservatives” demanding President Trump spend more money.  We have been repeating this warning since he announced his bid for the presidency in 2015.

Part IWhy Congress is not providing President Trump legislation in 2017

Part IIWhat it means when congress is not providing Trump legislation

Part IIIA possible solution to the larger problem – A Prediction.

Part IVDC Lobbyists Admit they control the legislation.

Part V –  Trump building a 21st Century “Main Street” Banking System

Trump Forced to Dissolve Advisory Committees As Left Targets Businesses


The protesters in New York have succeeded in threatening any business that works with Trump. They targeted JP Morgan and Blackrock demanding they resign. This has manifested in Trump having to save face and he dissolved two advisory committees with group managers rather than have them resign under pressure. Trump said he had completed the work of the Strategic and Policy Forum and the Manufacturing Council. He had decided to “put pressure on the businessmen.”

Whatever Trump does, the agenda is to stop all reform at all costs. Former Finance Minister Larry Summers, the father of negative interest rates and the man that helped to repeal Glass-Steagall, said on CNBC and Bloomberg, that Trump had supported the racists and labeled Trumps statements as a historic scandal in the history of US presidents.

I do not even want to think about the violence we are going to see both going into the 2018 elections and then for 2020. This is a full blown revolution of the left refusing to let go of their agenda. They will subjugate society to dictate how others should live. The world ahead is not a bright and cheery place. This is just going to progressive escalate.