QUESTION: Marty Socrates was the only one to forecast the trend change in Israel in 2021. With tensions rising over Iran, the forecast for a dollar rally into 2025 seems to be on point. My question is, I assume the 2021 low is a major low, and how high will the dollar go?
Thank you so much for Socrates. It is the only analysis that is ever unbiased.
HS
ANSWER: The 2021 low was the target on the array and our Bifurcation models. This currency elected a Yearly Bullish signal at the end of 2022, and that confirmed that the 2021 low would be a major low. It is interesting that when Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 1983, the dollar rose for 19 years. It was 2021 when the Israeli-Palestine Crisis started to catch fire. Once again, you see that the dollar rises from the threat of a Middle East War.
The volatility was due to rise the first week of April but this appears to be escalating into the week of April 22n
Posted originally on Feb 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Our Global Market Watch cautioned that Israel was at risk of a monthly decline in February. For the first time in the nation’s history, Moody’s has downgraded Israel’s credit score amid the war in Palestine. Israel has seen numerous conflicts over the years such as the Second Intifada or war with Hezbollah, and even then Moody’s did not see a decline in Israel’s credit worthiness. Moody’s cited the war with Hamas as the main reason for downgrading Israel from A1 to A2.
Moody’s is now forecasting a negative economic outlook for Israel. “While fighting in Gaza may diminish in intensity or pause, there is currently no agreement to end the hostilities durably and no agreement on a longer-term plan that would fully restore and eventually strengthen security for Israel,” Moody’s noted, as there is no certainty when or how this war will end.
The Bank of Israel predicts it will cost around 255 billion shekels (~$69,710,245,119.30 USD) to fund the war until 2025, and it believes 13% of GDP will be spent on the conflict. Moody’s is not concerned about the economic health of Israel as much as it is concerned about the direction of this war with Palestine as it only seems to be escalating four months after Hamas launched their attack. The credit agency explained that “ the ongoing military conflict with Hamas, its aftermath and wider consequences materially raise political risk for Israel as well as weaken its executive and legislative institutions and its fiscal strength, for the foreseeable future.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to quell fears by saying he believes the conflict will be over in a few months. Meanwhile, Israel launched a series of airstrikes over the weekend that claimed the lives of over 100 people in Rafah, and the public perception of the war is beginning to change. The US, Israel’s main donor, has asked Israel not to attack Rafah without a plan in place to protect civilians.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken even addressed the situation while speaking in Jerusalem, “Israelis were dehumanized in the most horrific way on October 7th…But that cannot be a license to dehumanize others.”
Fitch will release its rating for Israel at the beginning of March, and Standard & Poor’s data will be released in three months. This war is unlike any the nation has fought in the past and the markets are beginning to feel the volatility.
Posted originally on Dec 29, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
Egypt has attempted to remain neutral amid the Israel-Palestine war. The nation was one of the first in the region to secure its own border and deny refugees. But now Egypt is requesting an end to the death and destruction and has proposed a truce to Hamas.
Nations historically rarely accept peace deals offered by a foreign state until they’re completely decimated by war. In the case of Hamas, they are jihadi soldiers who will never surrender their holy war. Egypt requested that Hamas step aside and allow the Palestinian people to elect a new parliament. In return, Israeli forces would leave Palestine and commit to a permanent ceasefire.
Now, Israel NEVER agreed to this deal. Netanyahu, sounding like Nikki Haley, said, “We finish them. No less than that.” Hamas flat out rejected the deal as well, but said they would be open to negotiating with the lives of the 100 Israelis they are holding captive. Hamas would never permit a free election – it simply would not happen.
Egypt has every reason to fear an Israeli victory. Russia has been investing heavily in Egypt since 2014, and is currently pouring $4.6 billion into Egypt’s Suez Canal zone to create “Sun City,” an industrial zone covering 2,000 hectares. Russia poured $7 billion into Egypt in 2021 to create the Russian Industrial Zone (RIZ), the nation’s first industrial zone outside of Russia. Egypt is Russia’s stronghold in North Africa. Egypt has managed to maintain diplomacy with the West despite its close alliance with Russia.
The Ben Gurion Canal Project will take place after Israel declares victory. I explained this in depth in the report “Israel & Its Future,” which was provided to WEC attendees. Egypt has a grip on nautical trade, as about 20% of all world trade moves through the Suez Canal. The Ben Gurion Canal would start by the port city of Eilat in Israel through the Gulf of Aqaba, crossing the Jordanian border and flowing through the Arabah Valley before entering the Dead Sea before heading north around the Gaza Strip. The West would no longer need to maintain diplomatic relations with Egypt as trade would be redirected to this new canal.
Egypt likely expected Hamas to reject the peace deal but extended the olive branch to maintain its neutral posture.
Posted originally on the CTH on November 26, 2023 | Sundance
While it is good news, excellent news, the Israeli and foreign ‘hostages’ are slowly being released by Hamas, the politics of the dynamic are abundantly clear.
Biden was under extreme political pressure to gain the release of “American” hostages held captive by Hamas and affiliates in Gaza as a result of the October 7th attack and kidnappings. Prior to Joe Biden taking a victory lap for the release of 4-year-old Abigail Mor Edan, an Israeli-American dual citizen, all of the key players in the region made advanced notification of the impending release.
Qatari [think Muslim Brotherhood] Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told Face the Nation the release was imminent. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan also made the same prediction, as did several people associated with Gaza relief efforts and the larger agenda to create the two-state solution for Palestinian and Israeli citizens. In essence, politically Biden needed an American release, and that message was the driving force from Qatar to their allies in Hamas. Abigail Mor Edan was released as a result. Biden immediately took a victory lap.
WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden confirmed Sunday that the 4-year old American Abigail Mor Edan who was held hostage by Hamas in Gaza is now free. “She’s free and she’s in Israel now,” Biden told reporters Sunday from Nantucket, where he was spending Thanksgiving weekend with his family. (more)
The background effort is also very clear. The aligned interests of the Muslim Brotherhood and the U.S. Biden administration is to maintain a gauntlet approach where the two-state solution is the only option for Israel, backing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a corner.
[…] “Abigail was among 13 hostages released today from Gaza under the brokered and sustained though intensive U.S. diplomacy. She is now safely in Israel. And we continue to press and expect for additional Americans will be released as well,” Biden said.
According to Israel, 17 hostages were released Sunday including 14 Israelis and three foreign nationals, the young American girl among them.
Abigail, whose name has also been rendered as Avigail Idan in some reports, is the first American hostage who was been released as part of the deal brokered between Israel and Hamas that would allow for the freeing of at least 50 of the more than 200 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a 4-day pause in the fighting and the release of dozens of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Some foreign nationals have also been released by Hamas, including a Russian national.
Abigail’s parents were killed by Hamas attackers Oct. 7. On Sunday, Biden spoke of the events the young girl experienced during the attack, acknowledging that she had been through “a terrible trauma,” as, according to Biden, she witnessed her mother die in front of her before her father was shot and killed while shielding her from attackers. (read more)
If you drop the pretending, it becomes crystal clear to see the hostages are being used as leverage to stop a counteroffensive by the Israeli military. The Obama/Biden administration alignment with Qatar, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), permeates the media narrative with calls to negotiate terms for peace and hostage release.
Benjamin Netanyahu is being painted into a corner by the Biden administration who are using the U.S. military presence as a shield to force Israel to follow the approved program of the U.S. government. Biden, et al, want to protect Hamas while simultaneously calling residents of Gaza “victims” to the interests of Hamas and the PIJ.
With 200+ hostages held by Hamas, and up to another 50 held by PIJ, the slow drip of successful hostage release negotiations becomes the justification to stopping the Israeli War counteroffensive.
Obama/Biden et al, want a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians. I believe all efforts are underway to exploit the 10/7/23 terrorist attack to advance that agenda. Netanyahu is being carefully painted into a position where the survival of Israel will be contingent upon accepting this two-state solution, which essentially means -in the long picture- the elimination of the Israeli state.
Biden will give the outward face of complete support toward Israel; however, the background work will be to protect Gaza, and thereby Hamas, and controllably expand -if needed- the regional conflict, such that a two-state solution becomes the only viable option for the survival of Israel. Efforts by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood and by extension Iran, will appear to be confronted by Biden, but only insofar as the need for USA military support becomes more important and that dependency paints Netanyahu into a corner.
The nation of Qatar is the financial support system for the Muslim Brotherhood, the political umbrella of extremist (authentic) Islam. The Brotherhood supports Hamas, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, the Islamic State and all the terrorist affiliates therein. The Brotherhood leadership live in Turkey, under the protection of Recep Erdogan – who wants to recreate the Ottoman Empire. The Hamas leadership live in Qatar, under the protection of Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdul Aziz Al Thani. Joe Biden supports the efforts of Erdogan and Thani.
Now, does the 2022 memo pictured left make more sense?
Each of the aforementioned actors, including Obama/Biden and all the U.S. operatives from the State Dept therein, view Israel as the provocateur in the dynamic. The pro-Palestinian progressive movement within the Democrat Party is visibly part of this dynamic. Thus, the alignment of common interests can be expanded to include, leftists, Democrats, Palestinians, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Biden Administration and Qatar. The common enemy, Israel.
Once you understand this dynamic, then you are able to see what happens in the background and how it aligns with the interests of the group.
Blunting any effort by the Israelis in the war against Hamas becomes a matter of taking steps that make it more difficult for the international community to support the Israeli side of the war against Hamas.
Who are the people really driving this narrative and foreign policy effort? The Obama crew.
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