Posted originally on Jan 8, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

China became Venezuela’s largest oil purchaser through oil-for-debt deals. Socialism failed, and the nation was desperate for funds, especially after being ostracized from Western trade. Beijing supplied Venezuela with credit in exchange for heavily discounted crude. China’s access to cheap oil from Venezuela came to a sudden halt after the US takeover.

China was purchasing around 778,000 barrels a day before Maduro’s capture. Venezuela had borrowed up to $100 billion from China in loans since 2007, using PDVSA crude sales to ChinaOil as collateral. Venezuela agreed to ship fixed volumes of crude to Chinese buyers through small “teapot” refineries. While the average output was 778,000 bpd DAILY, exports reached 952,000 bpd at the end of 2025. These flows accounted for 4% of China’s total oil imports.

China is now looking to Iran and Russia for crude, furthering the disconnect between the East and West. Cargoes secured in Asian waters can cover two and a half months of China’s demand, easing any immediate shocks. Yet, Venezuela still owes China around $19 billion in outstanding debt that was largely secured by long-term crude imports.

China is enraged. Foreign Ministry spokespeople Mao Ning and Lin Jian demanded Venezuela retain “full and permanent sovereignty” over its natural resources and accused the US of “seriously breaching” international law. China’s “legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be protected,” according to state media. China’s United Nations representative reiterated this statement, demanding that the US  “cease its bullying and coercive practices.”

Russia stepped in to protect China’s short-term investments using a military submarine to protect an oil carrier from US forces. However, US forces successfully boarded and seized the cargo ship. There was no direct conflict between Russia and the US, but “direct” is key as Russia is showing its willingness to oppose Western influence.

Canada’s Carney chimed in to offer clean Canadian oil as an alternative. No one cares if the oil is clean; everyone wants the best deal.

Rest assured China will ensure it is repaid. Yet, the Trump Administration may not permit repayment in crude. The situation is unfolding and tensions are rapidly rising. The international community is split on America’s actions, with even America’s European allies condemning the move. Europe is now painting Trump with the same brush as Putin by insisting he will continue nation-building and expanding the great American Empire. The models pointed to geopolitical upheaval during the first week of January as we move toward the pinnacle of the panic cycle set to explode in 2026.