China’s Balloon is all Posturing


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Feb 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Chinese Balloon is a surveillance balloon. It is meant more for intimidation. It is unlikely that it really poses a national security threat. There is also one flying over Latin America. Joe Biden’s response was immediately to shoot it down. He was warned that it is too big and would possibly create a debris field that would harm civilians for no reason. The Chinese did the same when Trump came to power. He knew it was just intimidation and gave no order to try to shoot it down.

It flew over Montana which is the #1 target to eliminate our major intercontinental missiles that would point to China. So from that perspective, it had targeted sensitive areas but everyone in the world knows where those missiles are at.

Biden has shot it down once it made it to the Atlantic. Any information would have been transmitted back already. So this too was a measure of Bravado for the PR value. As one client wrote in:

Message: Martin, I live in Myrtle Beach, SC. Today was a clear sky day, the balloon and 5 military jets flying around were clearly visible. Many neighbors were calling each other to inform them of what was happening outside, we and many neighbors were out in the street watching this. Then all of a sudden there was a boom and the balloon disappeared, so much for the balloon. It was interesting. End of story.

WES

This is just intimidation. It seems to have worked for Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly canceled a high-stakes Beijing trip aimed at supposedly easing U.S.-China tensions after the US has done everything it can to make matters worse. Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was stupid. By the US making such a grand stand against China over Taiwan, they have absolutely now guaranteed that China will take Taiwan. Pelosi went just before the Chinese election which only guaranteed Xi’s reelection.

I do not know if there is something in the water in California that seems to make the politicians there lose all understanding of war and intimidation. Now the Republican McCarthy is showing that he too is just acting irrationally and poking China to ensure it MUST now take Taiwan. He announced a Taiwan trip simply because Pelosi did it, and it will do nothing but ensure a war that the USA would lose. Because China warned McCarthy, then he has to certainly go,

McCarthy has now come out and said that China cannot tell him where to go. So he now must go to Taiwan as a matter of gamesmanship, but that works both ways. Pelosi’s trip and now McCarthy’s trip are both doing the same to China. The US pretending it will defend Taiwan when we cannot is absurd and it then forces China to invade for the very same reason McCarthy is saying they cannot tell him where to go. McCarthy is part of the uni-party where Democrats and Republicans will act ONLY in the self-interest of the government.

China has come out and declared that its people should be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The Air Force general told everyone to be prepared for war with China by 2025. Even just looking at the ECM from the start of Taiwan, this is the second wave of 51.6 years and the third wave peaked on January 13th, 2023 (2023.036). That was the week when China staged a massive drill against Taiwan which was three days after a US Navy destroyer transited the Taiwan Strait in a “freedom of navigation” operation which prompted the reaction from China.

All of this poking China only forces war. Just as McCarthy now views he must go since China told him not to, China will respond by invading or they will appear weak. This is like kids pretending to be tough in a schoolyard. The emotions are the same and it becomes a matter of pride.

Video Footage of Military Shooting Down Chinese Surveillance Balloon


Posted originally on the CTH on February 5, 2023 | Sundance

Interesting video capture appears to show the moment the U.S. military hit the Chinese surveillance balloon with some type of detonation.

3:15 P.M. EST – THE PRESIDENT:  On Wednesday, when I was briefed on the balloon, I ordered the Pentagon to shoot it down, on Wednesday, as soon as possible.  They decided — without doing damage to anyone on — on the ground.  They decided that the best time to do that was as it got over water, outside — within our — within the 12-mile limit.

They successfully took it down.  And I want to compliment our aviators who did it.  And we’ll have more to report on this a little later. 

Thank you.

Q    Mr. President, what does this say about China?  What’s your message to China?

Q    You were saying the recommendation from your — was from your national security —

THE PRESIDENT:  I told them to shoot it down.

Q    On Wednesday?

THE PRESIDENT:  On Wednesday.

Q    But the recommendation from them —

THE PRESIDENT:  They said to me, “Let’s wait till the safest place to do it.”

3:16 P.M. EST

Biden Confirms U.S. Military Have Taken Down Chinese Surveillance Balloon – Details Forthcoming


Posted originally on the CTH on February 4, 2023 | Sundance 

Apparently, the Chinese surveillance airship has been taken out of commission inside the 12-mile range of U.S. territorial waters on the South Carolina Atlantic coast.

Delivering remarks to the press pool, Joe Biden confirmed the Chinese dirigible was taken down.   According to his statement, Biden ordered the airship to be shot down last Wednesday (lol sure), but the military advised him to wait until it crossed the U.S. and could be taken down over water.

Several U.S. jet fighters were seen circling the coastline, and the FAA had shut down the airspace above the Atlantic near Myrtle Beach prior to the operation to remove or destroy the surveillance airship.

Biden Planning to Bring Down Chinese ‘Surveillance’ Balloon Over Atlantic, Possibly Today


Posted originally on the CTH on February 4, 2023 | Sundance

According to the Associated Press, Joe Biden is planning to shoot down the Chinese ‘surveillance’ balloon possibly later today when it reaches the eastern shore of the Atlantic Ocean.

The mumbling mumbler who mumbles said, “We’re going to take care of it”, when asked about the ongoing issue earlier today.  WATCH:

(Via Associated Press) – WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration is considering a plan to shoot down a large Chinese balloon suspected of conducting surveillance on the U.S. military, by bringing it down once it is above the Atlantic Ocean where the remnants could potentially be recovered, according to four U.S. officials.

Two of the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive operation, said President Joe Biden had given the go-ahead. In a brief remark Saturday in response to a reporter’s question about the balloon, Biden said: “We’re going to take care of it.”

The balloon was spotted Saturday morning over the Carolinas as it approached the Atlantic coast. In preparation for the operation, the Federal Aviation Administration temporarily closed airspace over the Carolina coastline, including the airports in Charleston and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Wilmington, North Carolina, until at least 2:45 p.m. EST Saturday. The FAA was rerouting air traffic from the area and warned of delays as a result of the flight restrictions.

Officials were aiming to time the operation so they could recover as much of the debris as possible before it sinks into the ocean. The Pentagon had previously estimated that the balloon, flying at about 60,000 feet in the air, was about the size of three school buses and that any debris field would be substantial. (read more)

(AP) In this photo below provided by Brian Branch, a large balloon drifts above the Kingston, N.C. area, with an airplane and its contrail seen below it. The United States says it is a Chinese spy balloon moving east over America at an altitude of about 60,000 feet (18,600 meters), but China insists the balloon is just an errant civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research that went off course due to winds and has only limited “self-steering” capabilities.

Google Disclaimer: Image Above – Not the real balloon

China: Balloon over US skies is for research, wind pushed it offcourse


The Pentagon decided not to shoot down the balloon because of concerns about hurting people on the ground.

General McMaster “BE READY FOR WAR WITH CHINA”, Covidians Start To Admit Unvaxxed Were The Winners


Posted originally on Rumble on Feb 1, 6:00 pm EST

China seems to be controlling the world right now as everything that is going on benefits them!

China Floats High Altitude “Spy Balloon” Over U.S. Airspace


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 2, 2023

This is a little goofy, and likely another expression of the Beijing dragon doing the propaganda dance.  According to multiple media sources a high altitude “spy balloon” is drifting over U.S. airspace and the Pentagon has discussed options for shooting it down yet they didn’t.

It’s goofy because the balloon is floating well above commercial airline routes and, well, what could China capture via balloon that they are not already capturing via satellite surveillance.  It’s just odd.  {Direct Rumble Link}

I can understand not shooting it down – after all, that approach would likely then involve bits of the thing falling to the ground, which then would pose both a hazard and a need to collect all the debris.  It seems more like a Beijing propaganda effort than an actual risk to any U.S. military interests.

Tucker Carlson questions why the Pentagon decided not to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon.

.

Washington DC – House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Thursday night called for a briefing of the “Gang of Eight” — the group of lawmakers charged with reviewing the nation’s most sensitive intelligence information — following reports of a Chinese spy balloon flying over Montana.

“China’s brazen disregard for U.S. sovereignty is a destabilizing action that must be addressed, and President Biden cannot be silent,” McCarthy tweeted. “I am requesting a Gang of Eight briefing.” (read more)

Have no fear, the Pentagon is investigating with their best men, whoops – I mean people, or people-kind, or non-binary persons who are within what we previously called the U.S. military, or defense dept.  Whatever all that is now….

Taiwan & Asia War in 2025?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We have been getting an onslaught of emails asking in the military is now using Socrates for their forecasts after the claims of a war with China are coming in 2025 since that is when Socrates has been targeting the start of a major international war. In the memo obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.” Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

I cannot comment on this yes or no. All I can say is that just about EVERY intelligence agency monitors what Socrates forecasts. I do not know it the General was making that memo based on Socrates’ forecast that 2025 is a Panic Cycle Target in their currency.

The  Republic of China (Taiwan) (ROC) government relocated to Taiwan, followed by 1.2 million people from China. It was October 25th, 1949 when the Battle of Kuningtou on Kinmen took place, in which the ROC armed forces defeat the CCP on the northwestern coast of the island. The ROC then declared Martial law in Taiwan which continued to be in force until 1987. The tensions have turned up in 2021. When we look at 2025, that will be also the Pi target since this market has arrived on everyone’s screen.

MUST READ – President Trump Warns Congress Not to Touch Social Security and Medicare, For a Good Reason, He’s The One Who Can Fix Them


Posted originally on the CTH on January 21, 2023 | Sundance 

President Trump transmitted a message to congress, warning them not to cut Social Security and Medicare {Direct Rumble Link}.  Many politicians and pundits will look at Trump’s position from the perspective of it being a good position to campaign on for older voters, but that’s not the core of his reasoning.

In 2016 CTH was the first place to evaluate the totality of President Trump’s economic policies; specifically, as those policies related to the entitlement programs around Social Security and Medicare.  We outlined how the approach Trump was putting forth and the way he was approaching the issue.   In the years that followed, he was right.  He was creating a U.S. economy that could sustain all of the elements the traditional political class were calling “unsustainable.”

Before getting to the details, here’s his video message and policy as delivered yesterday. WATCH:

Trump: We must protect Medicare and Social Security

Fortunately, we do not have to guess if President Trump is correct. We have his actual economic policy results to look at and see how the expansion of the economy was creating the type of growth that would sustain Social Security and Medicare.  This was/is MAGAnomics at work.

♦ On Social Security – Unlike many other 2016 Republican candidates, Donald Trump did NOT call for rapid or wholesale changes to the current Social Security program; and there’s a very good reason why he was the only candidate who did not propose wholesale changes.

With the single caveat of “high income retirees” (over $250k annually), which previously Trump said he was open to negotiating on, President Trump does not consider these programs as “entitlements”. The American people pay into them, and the federal government has an obligation to fulfill the promises made upon collection.

To fully understand how Donald Trump views the solvency of Social Security, you must again understand his economic model and how it outlines growth.

The issue with Social Security, as viewed by Trump, is more of an issue with receipts and expenditures. If the aggregate U.S. economy is growing by a factor larger than the distribution needed to fulfill its entitlement obligations, then no wholesale change on expenditure is needed. The focus needs to be on continued and successful economic growth.

What you will find in all of Donald Trump’s positions, is a paradigm shift he necessarily understood must take place in order to accomplish the long-term goals for the U.S. citizen as it relates to “entitlements” or “structural benefits”.

All other candidates and politicians begin their policy proposals with a fundamentally divergent perception of the U.S. economy.

The customary political economy theory, carried by most politicians, positions them with an outlook of the U.S. economy based on “services”; a service-based economic model.

While this economic path has been created by decades old U.S. policy and is ultimately the only historical economic path now taught in school, President Trump initiated his economy policy with the intention to change the dynamic entirely, and that’s exactly what he did.

Because so many shifts -policy nudges- have taken place in the past several decades, few academics and even fewer MSM observers, were able to understand how to get off this path and chart a better course.

Donald Trump proposed less dependence on foreign companies for cheap goods, (the cornerstone of a service economy) and a return to a more balanced U.S. larger economic model where the manufacturing and production base can be re-established and competitive based on American entrepreneurship and innovation.  This is the essence of MAGAnomics.

The key words in the prior statement are “dependence” and “balanced”. When a nation has an industrial manufacturing balance within the GDP there is far less dependence on the economic activity in global markets. In essence the U.S. can sustain itself, absorb global economic fluctuations and expand itself or contract itself depending on the free market.

When there is no balance, there is no longer a free market. The free market is sacrificed in favor of dependency, whether it’s foreign oil or foreign manufacturing, the dependency outcome is essentially the same. Without balance there is an inherent loss of economic independence, and a consequential increase in economic risk.

No other economy in the world innovates like the U.S.A. President Donald Trump saw/sees this as a key advantage across all industry – including manufacturing and technology.

The benefit of cheap overseas labor, which is considered a global market disadvantage for the U.S., is offset by utilizing innovation and energy independence.  This was the core of the economic program that created so much immediate GDP growth in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

2017: […]  “This policy will be successful in moving the U.S. economy away from low-growth secular stagnation towards significantly more buoyant performance. We would not be taken by surprise by a doubling of the growth rate of real GDP in the U.S. over the next two years, nor by a further significant move up of equity valuations and a material further appreciation of the dollar.”  ~  David Folkerts-Landau, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank

The third highest variable cost of goods beyond raw materials first, labor second, is energy. If the U.S. energy sector was unleashed -and fully developed- the manufacturing price of any given product would allow for global trade competition even with higher U.S. wage prices.  This is why President Trump traveled to Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip, followed closely by a trip to Asia.  He was putting the basics of his U.S. economic policy into place.

Additionally, the U.S. has a key strategic advantage with raw manufacturing materials such as: iron ore, coal, steel, precious metals and vast mineral assets which are needed in most new modern era manufacturing. President Trump proposed we stopped selling these valuable national assets to countries we compete against – they belong to the American people; they should be used for the benefit of American citizens. Period.  This was the central point of the Steel and Aluminum tariffs.

EXAMPLE: Prior to President Trump, China was buying and recycling our heavy (steel) and light (aluminum) metal products (for pennies on the original manufacturing dollar) and then using those metals to reproduce manufactured goods for sale back to the U.S.

As President, Donald Trump stopped that practice immediately, triggering a policy expectation that we do the manufacturing ourselves with the utilization of our own resources.  Then he leveraged any sales of these raw materials in our international trade agreements.

When you combine FULL resource development (in a modern era) with the removal of over-burdensome regulatory and compliance systems, necessarily filled with enormous bureaucratic costs, Donald Trump began lowering the cost of production and the U.S. became globally competitive. In essence, Trump changed the economic paradigm, and we no longer were a dependent nation relying on a service driven economic model.

The cornerstone to the success of this economic turnaround was the keen capability of the U.S. worker to innovate on their own platforms. Americans, more than any country in the world, just know how to get things accomplished. Independence and self-sufficiency are part of the DNA of the larger American workforce.

In addition, as we saw in 2018 and 2019, an unquantifiable benefit came from investment, where the smart money play -to get increased return on investment- became putting capital INTO the U.S. economy, instead of purchasing foreign stocks.

With all of the above opportunities in mind, this is how President Trump put us on a pathway to rebuilding our national infrastructure.

The demand for labor increased, and as a consequence so too did the U.S. wage rate which was stagnant (or non-existent) for the past three decades.

As the wage rate increased, and as the economy expanded, the governmental dependency model was reshaped and simultaneously receipts to the U.S. treasury improved.

More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare/social service programs have a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar and have no need to spend a dollar – the saved sum is doubled. That was how the SSI and safety net programs were positioned under President Trump.  Again, this is MAGAnomics.

When you elevate your America First economic thinking you begin to see that all of the “entitlements” or expenditures become more affordable with an economy that is fully functional.

As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker. We stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create.  Simply put, we begin to….

…. Make America Great Again!

trump west virginia

We know it works, because we have the results to cite.

It was the Fourth Quarter of 2019…..

Right before the pandemic would hit a few months later…. Despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, all of them saying Trump’s 2017 steel and aluminum tariffs on China, Canada and the EU would create massive inflation, it just wasn’t happening!

Overall year-over-year inflation was hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; yup, that was our inflation rate.  The rate in the latter half of 2019 was firmed up with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate basically remained consistent.   [See Below]  The U.S. economy was on a smooth glide path, strong, stable and Main Street was growing with MAGAnomics at work.

A couple of important points.  First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America-First MAGAnomic initiative.  Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector.

Which brings us to the second important point.  Notice how food prices had very low year-over-year inflation, 0.5 percent.  That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:

(BLS) […] The index for food at home declined for the third month in a row, falling 0.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.7 percent in August as the index for eggs fell 2.6 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose in July, fell 0.5 percent in August; the index for fresh fruits declined 1.4 percent, but the index for fresh vegetables rose 0.4 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. (link)

For the previous twenty years food prices had been increasingly controlled by Big Ag, and not by normal supply and demand.   The commodity market became a ‘controlled market’. U.S. food outputs (farm production) was controlled and exported to keep the U.S. consumer paying optimal prices.

President Trump’s trade reset was disrupting this process.  As farm products were less exported the cost of the food in our supermarket became reconnected to a ‘more normal’ supply and demand cycle.  Food prices dropped and our pantry costs were lowered.

The Commerce Dept. then announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August 2019, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlighted retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results came on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July 2019, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

Despite the efforts to remove and impeach President Trump, it did not look like middle-class America was overly concerned about the noise coming from the pundits.   Likely that’s because blue-collar wages were higher, Main Street inflation was lower, and overall consumer confidence was strong.  Yes, MAGAnomics was working.

Additionally, remember all those MSM hours and newspaper column inches where the professional financial pundits were claiming Trump’s tariffs were going to cause massive increases in prices of consumer goods?

Well, exactly the opposite happened [BLS report] Import prices were continuing to drop:

[Table 1 – BLS report link]

This was a really interesting dynamic that no-one in the professional punditry would dare explain.

Donald Trump’s tariffs were targeted to specific sectors of imported products.  [Steel, Aluminum, and a host of smaller sectors etc.]  However, when the EU and China respond by devaluing their currency, that approach hit all products imported, not just the tariff goods.

Because the EU and China were driving up the value of the dollar, everything we were importing became cheaper.   Not just imports from Europe and China, but actually imports from everywhere.   All imports were entering the U.S. at substantially lower prices.

This meant when we imported products, we were also importing deflation.

This price result is exactly the opposite of what the economic experts and Wall Street pundits predicted back in 2017 and 2018 when they were pushing the rapid price increase narrative.

Because all the export dependent economies were reacting with such urgency to retain their access to the U.S. market, aggregate import prices were actually lower than they were when the Trump tariffs began:

[…]  Prices for imports from China edged down 0.1 percent in August following decreases of 0.2 percent in both July and June. Import prices from China have not advanced on a monthly basis since ticking up 0.1 percent in May 2018. The price index for imports from China fell 1.6 percent for the year ended in August.

[…]  Import prices from the European Union fell 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent over the past 12 months.

[Page #4 – BLS Report, pdf] – BLS press release.

So yes, we know President Trump can save Social Security and Medicare by expanding the economy with his America First economic policy.  We do not need to guess if it is possible or listen to pundits theorize about his approach being some random ‘catch phrase’ disconnected from reality.  Yes folks, we have the receipts.

This was MAGAnomics at work, and this is entirely what created the middle-class MAGA coalition.  No other Republican candidate has this economic policy in their outlook because all other candidates are purchased by the Wall Street multinationals.

America First MAGAnomics is unique to President Trump because he is the only one independent enough to implement them.

That’s just the reality of the situation.

MAGA for life.

Authors note as said in 2016: “If I absolutely did not believe this economic model was doable, I would never expand the concept and place advocacy upon it. I am an absolute believer that we can, as a nation, reignite a solid manufacturing base and generate an expanding middle class.”  Yes, I bet on Trump, and he was right.    

Giddy up – If I Can See It, So Can President Trump – Thus, the 2024 Trump Campaign Kick-off in South Carolina


Posted originally on the CTH on January 20, 2023 | Sundance 

As we did in 2015 and 2016, you are not going to find pretending in our analysis of the 2024 presidential race. Yes, my friends we are again going to deconstruct the GOPe roadmap and President Trump’s recent moves highlight his ability to see it also.

Before digging into the details, strategies and motives, let me make two things clear. First, CTH has no relationship with the campaign of President Trump. However, that said, we do share an identical ability to see the GOPe Club maneuvers.

Second, Trump’s moves are Trump’s moves. Meaning, President Trump is making these decisions himself personally. These are his calls, his choices, his strategies, his schedules. These moves are *NOT* coming from outside consultants, campaign advisors or even campaign management. These are 100% independent Trump decisions. I will explain to you how I can tell at a later date.

In the non-pretending world of GOPe conniving, scheming and Machievellian politics, both former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and current Senator Tim Scott will be announcing their intention to run for the GOPe nomination in the near future. This is not in doubt; their entry is assured. The reason is very simple, the Club roadmap contains both timing and roles for each to play. First, here’s Nikki encapsulated:

The RNC will determine the 2024 state primary sequencing next week, but South Carolina will almost assuredly be an early contest (inside first four).

With Tim Scott and Nikki Haley both bringing hometown advantage to the contest (not accidentally because all this stuff is mapped out folks), now you understand why President Trump is holding his first kick-off campaign event in South Carolina with Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, on Saturday January 28th.

Pay attention to that January 28th kick-off and notice who will *not* be present.

Donald Trump is seeing the same GOPe map we are, and he is personally assembling neighborhood allies so that he is not caught without a network in a state that will have two hometown players competing against him.  President Trump is leveraging his prior endorsement and support for both McMaster and Graham.

Factually, McMaster would not be in place if President Trump did not pull Nikki Haley out of the state and appoint her as U.N. Ambassador, then turn around and support McMaster to fill her spot.   Additionally, President Trump has also always kept Graham close, despite the ideological economic policy differences, for exactly this type of leveraged moment.  This is political chess, and President Trump can see the GOPe moves.

Now, let’s talk about roles.

Nikki Haley was always going to run in 2024 for the GOP nomination – SEE OUR ARCHIVES – this was never in question.  All of her moves were predictable since she left the administration in January 2019.   However, Nikki Haley is also not necessarily running for the office of the President, she’s running to be in a power position for the office of the President.  In the current construct, she’s positioning to be Ron DeSantis’ vice-presidential candidate pick.

2021: …”“I don’t think [Trump’s] going to be in the picture,” she said, matter-of-factly. “I don’t think he can. He’s fallen so far.” […] “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”  (link)

A few weeks later…”Out of respect I would never do anything to go against [Trump], he knows that. I would have a conversation with him and talk to him about it should we decide we want to pursue it; but, um, no, I have a great respect for him and I would never consider running against him.” (linkVideo Prompted:

Thus, you see the conniving lying of Nikki Haley.  (Anticipate video disappearing)

In the role she has carved out and also accepted, Nikki Haley is going to be the biggest attacker of President Trump on behalf of the management team protecting Ron DeSantis.  Nikki has a very specific set of skills, including her willingness to be nasty – that makes her perfect for this role.   Haley will be the tip of the spear, providing Ron DeSantis the opportunity to pretend he is just above it all.

Trump also knows DeSantis is pretending right now, and I have no doubt he can see the role Nikki Haley is positioned to play.  Watch Trump continue hitting DeSantis as Haley moves in for cover.

You might remember Trump hitting Xi Jinping of China every time Kim Jong-un of North Korea did a directed by Beijing stupid thing.  He’ll do the same thing here.  DeSantis in the role of Chairman Xi and Haley in the role of Chairman Kim.  Each time Haley does the passive aggressive slaps, Trump will hit DeSantis with something.

Haley has no chance at the nomination.  Coastal establishment Republicans love her, but that only means she will have money, not votes.  The Republican voting base has seen through her schemes and wind-testing for years.   Haley is not stupid, she knows this.  Heck, even Liz Cheney polls higher than Nikki Haley.

Haley’s positioning right now is for 2023 power and influence despite her lack of base voter support.  The best she can hope to achieve in 2024 is a VP pick to get her in the target zone.

Senator Tim Scott is on a pure GOPe mission.  He’s the utility insider, the team player taking the South Carolina field to support the team goal of blocking Trump.  Scott is visible diversity, yet ideological alignment with the GOPe Club mission.

Tim Scott’s role is what Tim Scott is good at, being a team player on behalf of the GOPe and giving the South Carolina Republican voters, those who detest Haley, an alternative.

What Marco Rubio was in Florida 2016 for non-Jeb voters, Tim Scott is in 2024 South Carolina for non-Nikki voters.

President Trump has this mapped out in exactly this format.  CTH saw this SC Desantis/Haley/Scott alignment forming last year and we said to prepare for a great deal of announcing as soon as the RNC winter meeting concludes…. Which happens not coincidentally, to conclude at the same time as Trump’s kick-off in South Carolina.  Again, strategery.

The GOPe outline includes Harmeet Dhillon as part of team ‘Ready for Ron,’ and the DeSantis management and branding team have recruited all the customary conservative media allies to stop Donald Trump.  Their problem is the inauthentic and deceptive nature of running for ’24 while pretending they are not running for ’24.  It’s cowardly.

The 2024 operation includes RdS hiding behind the willing skirt of Nikki Haley and then pontificating.

Keep watching.

I keep saying the 2024 GOP nomination is going to be fun because this is an epic Wall Street -vs- Main Street battle that needs to be done.  The conniving Republican political class are openly wearing their anti-working class uniforms now. Despite their efforts to remain hidden, and thanks entirely to their hubris, they are glowing.

The primary contest in 2024 is going to be epic, because this time the MAGA scruffnecks will, for the first time in years, clearly see who the enemy within the Republican ranks really are.  This makes them so much easier to defeat, and also explains why the professional managers behind Ron DeSantis are desperate to keep his alignment hidden.

Emerson College Polling conducted a granular poll in late November [DATA HERE] & [Cross Tabs Here] highlighting some really interesting stuff.

First, amid GOP voters, Liz Cheney at 4% is beating Ted Cruz (3%), Nikki Haley (3%) and Larry Hogan (1%) for the 2024 GOP nomination.   How funny is that?

I mean it’s funny as hell when you look at it from the position of Nikki Haley and the detached billionaires that are going to have to fund her.  We’re just not into you Nikki. LOL.  Also, I mean, c’mon, ya gotta laugh.  Imagine being one of the former 2016 members of Team Ted Cruz and seeing the insufferable Liz Cheney beating him in current 2022 polling…  Seriously, ROFLMAO.  Yer’ killing me.  I mean could the Cruz Crew pick a winner or what?  Too funny.

Even better are the ways Emerson uses the demographics of the poll to explain the political alignment and who the typical supporters are for President Donald Trump (55%) -vs- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (25%).  The Emerson polling data nails the demographics perfectly.

(Emerson) – […]  Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “There is a stark education divide among Republican primary voters. A 71% majority of voters with a high school degree or less support Trump in 2024 whereas 14% support DeSantis.

A 53% majority of those with a college degree, some college, or associate’s degree  support Trump while 28% support DeSantis. By contrast, Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split: 32% support Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.”

Kimball added: “There is also an age divide in the Republican primary: younger voters under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%, voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%, while Republicans over 65 are more split: 39% support Trump and 32% DeSantis.” (read more)

So, President Trump wins every demographic, but to see what groups leans more favorably toward Ron DeSantis it looks like this:

DeSantis Voters – Older, over educated, wealthy, Wall-Street, non-working, investment class, predominately white, left-leaning Republicans with delicate sensibilities.   The more of each of these attributes the person carries, the more likely they are to support DeSantis.

Trump Voters – Younger and middle-aged, multi-racial, working class, hardcore, Main Street, paycheck earners.  ie. the middle class.  The more of each of these attributes the person carries, the more likely they are to support President Trump.

It doesn’t get much more easily defined.

Trump is defined by Main Street.  DeSantis is defined by Wall Street.

That demographic data shows the pattern analysis of exactly what is going on.

It doesn’t matter how many candidates line up in the non-MAGA political lane; they are all coming from the same cocktail class circuit.

Here comes the kicker…. As more people find out about the management operation of Ron DeSantis, that has been happening in the background, the more DeSantis will bleed support back toward MAGA.

Think of this in realistic terms.  Team MAGA is running on authenticity and honesty.  Team DeSantis has to run on duplicity (pretending not to be running) and continual defense to keep people from finding out about the inauthentic and dishonest nature of the operation.

Ask yourself, which team would you rather be on?

Within that answer you discover why this campaign is going to be so much fun.

MAGA has nothing to hide. The GOPe have everything to hide.

We can admit every downside because the ultimate goal is pure.  They must deny every downside because the ultimate goal is duplicity.

MAGA has nothing to lose that we haven’t already lost because of the GOPe corruption and lies. However, the GOPe have everything to lose in their effort to retain power.

Truth is a powerful weapon, and no one uses that weapon better than Donald J Trump.

Yes, I’m smiling at how easy it is going to be for President Donald Trump to trigger them.