Posted originally on the CTH on August 27, 2024 | Sundance
It’s really not Jack Smith, so we should drop the pretenses. Mary McCord, Norm Eisen and Andrew Weissmann have recrafted a new DC indictment against President Trump by dropping around 10 pages of fraudulent evidence from the prior indictment and labeling it a “superseding indictment.”
The 36-page indictment is available HERE. Essentially, after the supreme court decision on immunity, the majority of the previous case against President Trump was likely to fail, so Mary, Norm and Andrew went back and modified the previously lawfare to fit a narrower scale as requested by the supreme court.
The Lawfare crew then hand off the indictment to Jack Smith who runs it through a Grand Jury, and re-files it as a new set of issues; however, the majority of the case is structurally the same, they just took out the evidence they were using. This fiasco does not appear to be any better than the previous pages of Lawfare.
(Via Politico) – […] The new indictment removes some specific allegations against Trump but contains the same four criminal charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States. It’s a signal that Smith believes the high court’s immunity decision doesn’t pose a major impediment to convicting the former president.
“The superseding indictment, which was presented to a new grand jury that had not previously heard evidence in this case, reflects the Government’s efforts to respect and implement the Supreme Court’s holdings and remand instructions,” Smith’s team wrote in an accompanying court filing.
The development is unlikely to alter the reality that a trial in the case before the November election looks impossible. In fact, the new indictment could drag the case out further — defense attorneys often seek delays after prosecutors revise criminal allegations.
Both sides face a Friday deadline to propose next steps to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, the Biden appointee who is overseeing the proceedings in the trial court. Chutkan has scheduled a Sept. 5 hearing to set a course for the case. (read more)
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I had to write to say thank you so much for everything you do. When Trump was indicted, you said sell and get out of New York. Your advice has always been discussed with our board, and the decision was made to sell in light of your ECM also turning in 2024. We managed to sell our commercial real estate in New York City, and based on the auction that just took place, you saved our company and every employee in our company. With 135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan that was originally sold for $332 million in 2006 and now sold at auction for $8.5 million, reality has struck with a vengeance. Your forecast for New York City will be forever remembered among our ranks. We owe you more than a dinner and a drink.
Thank you ever so much, SC
COMMENT #2: Yesterday, the New York Times ran a sobering real-estate story headlined, “This 23-Floor Manhattan Office Building Just Sold at a 97.5% Discount.” Apparently, inflation hit everything else but missed big-city commercial real estate. The building in the story, which used to headquarter Sports Illustrated, last sold in 2006 —admittedly at peak market— for $332 million dollars. On Wednesday, it sold at auction for only $8 million, a stunning 98% discount.MSREPLY: On Sepetember 2nd, 2023, we warned on the private blog that the “real estate market, 2023 should produce the highest annual closing.” With the ECM turning down into 2028 and war on the horizon, what New York has done to Trump is a warning to get the hell out of New York. This decision was as bad as putting sanctions on Russia, which became a warning to everyone else: if you do not do as the American Neocons command, they will remove you from the SWIFT system.This event in New York City will send tremors throughout the nation. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) peaked on our models in 2020 in REAL TERMS with COVID. Ever since the need for office space has taken a nosedive, as I have said, if I were Trump, I would have handed them an office building for the fine and then bought it back at 10% when they auctioned it off. With its political vendetta against Trump, New York has only made New York City the leader in the decline, and we have NOT seen the bottom yet. This will send panic among the smart people, and this will cause further contagion to spread to residential property, which has been propped up because of jobs in New York City, which we still show are in crash mode into 2028/2029.
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Banks’ CRE loan books’ primary concern is exposure to the office and retail sectors. Based on our sources, we would estimate that banks’ CRE lending financed 46% of office and retail loans which most likely comes in between $700-725 billion. Added to this concern is the concentration of CRE loans on the balance sheets of regional banks. It appears that CRE loans on the books of regional banks amount to about 65% of non-multifamily CRE loans. After this auction, many banks are going to be deeply concerned about the realistic valuation of CRE properties. The risk is that this will further undermine the belief in bank stability going forward.
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Smaller regional banks will most likely pull back from CRE, which will undermine values going forward. Large banks or insurance companies are unlikely candidates to start lending into the CRE sector. The more likely lenders into CRE will probably be private credit investors, but that will also come at higher rates. The total CRE market is valued at over $10 trillion, with the office sector being the largest sector at around 24-25%.
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Refinancing Challenges for CMBS
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There there is the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market that accounts for 20% of the office and retail loans. That comes in around $300 billion+, of which about $22 billion in office loans maturing here in 2024. Typically, up to 50% of that would not be a problem to roll. However, after this sale at auction, many will have second thoughts. Our sources place about 95% of those loans are only backed by Class B and Class C offices. This auction will weaken the funding potential for the lower-quality buildings, and this will accelerate the risk of strategic default into especially 2026.
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When we dig deeper, the 60-day-plus delinquency rate is only about 10%, but it is rising rapidly. This implies that we should expect more stress in the CMBS market between now and 2026. The vacancy rate in major cities nationwide is approaching 20%. In the case of New York City, this particular building had a vacancy rate of about two-thirds. The rents they collected from the remaining tenants were not even enough to cover the ground lease, no less the taxes and upkeep of the building. The losses were catastrophic, especially since they indicted Trump in New York City.
On top of all of that, then you have the flight from the Democratic Blue States to the Red Republican States post-COVID. We addressed the Commerical Real Estate on June 8th, 2023. Where vacancy rates in San Francisco were approaching 30%, in Miami they were the lowest nationally at just 15.8%. We wrote back then:
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“During the first quarter of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20% nationally for the first time really since the Great Depression. Then there are cities that have embraced WOKE to their detriment and are witnessing the worst. In San Francisco, the vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2023 climbed to 29.4%, up from 27.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Manhattan has a vacancy rate of n the first quarter of 2023 at 22.2% according to Cushman & Wakefield. Dallas has been absorbing the flight from California so its vacancy rate is 18.7% according to Cushman & Wakefield. The commercial vacancy rate in Miami, Florida office market has an overall vacancy which has been declining counter-trend to the rest of the nation falling now to 15.8% according to Cushman & Wakefield. In Chicago, Class-A vacancy rate stands at 19.3% while Class-B vacancy jumped to 28.3% according to Cushman & Wakefield.”
–For anyone thinking about leaving major centers like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, it does not matter how low rates might go; there will be no buyers, and you will be stuck where you are until after 2032. You may have already missed the last train.
Posted originally on the CTH on July 15, 2024 | Sundance
Judge Aileen Cannon has dismissed the classified documents case against President Trump that was brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Using a similar argument recently included by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, Judge Cannon has dismissed the case as an unconstitutional lawfare attack. The Lawfare community, writ large, is apoplectic.
In her ruling [SEE HERE] Judge Cannon ruled the appointment of Smith was not constitutional. “The Court is convinced that Special Counsel’s Smith’s prosecution of this action breaches two structural cornerstones of our constitutional scheme — the role of Congress in the appointment of constitutional officers, and the role of Congress in authorizing expenditures by law,” Cannon wrote.
“At most, the history reflects an ad hoc, inconsistent practice of naming prosecutors from both inside and outside of government (typically in response to national scandal) who possessed wildly variant degrees of power and autonomy. The lack of consistency makes it near impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions about Congress’s approval of modern special counsels like Special Counsel Smith,” she wrote.
The malevolent forces of the deep state have suffered a tremendous defeat, and the demons are shrieking.
The Washington Post, representing the interests of the U.S. Intelligence Community who fully supported the Lawfare attack, writes:
WASHINGTON – The Justice Department is highly likely to appeal the decision, and the issue may eventually reach the Supreme Court. By dismissing the entire indictment, Cannon’s decision also means that the charges are dropped for Trump’s two co-defendants, Waltine “Walt” Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira.
Even if Cannon’s ruling is eventually overruled, the decision to dismiss Trump’s indictment adds to a string of legal victories for him in recent weeks, including a sweeping Supreme Court ruling July 1 that gives former presidents broad immunity for their official acts while in office.
At the Justice Department, Attorney General Merrick Garland declined to comment on the ruling. A spokesman for Smith did not immediately comment.
On social media, Trump said Monday’s dismissal “should be just the first step” and that the rest of the criminal and civil cases against him also should be tossed out of court. He accused Democrats of conspiring against him to bring those cases, a claim that has been repeatedly denied by federal, state, and local officials. (read more)
This is quite remarkable. Alec Baldwin broke down in tears during court today because the trial judge dismissed the case against him.
Apparently, the prosecution received a box of live ammunition from a witness. The ammunition was from the same lot used on the set of Rust. That evidence strongly suggested the live ammunition that made its way on to the set came from the prop supplier, rather than from the film’s armorer.
The question has always been, how did live ammunition get into the gun on the set? The prosecution team hid the evidence and never told the defense team, a clear Brady violation. [Print Media Report Here] WATCH:
As much as I dislike Alec Baldwin, this judge did the right thing. The evidence was at the center of the prosecution and withholding it was a gross violation of ethical responsibility of the prosecution. The charges should have been dismissed, and they were.
Right is right, even if nobody does it. Wrong is wrong, even if everybody does it. Using corrupt lawfare tactics and hiding Brady material is wrong. The prosecution should be sanctioned.
Posted originally on Jul 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
We have a MOST interesting problem in this New York case where Trump was found guilty on 34 counts concerning the falsified documents that were created in 2017, while President Trump was in office as President. Trump’s lawyers are NOT arguing that the Trump Organization checks the president signed were official duties. However, the prejudice of the prosecutor and the pretend acting judge have created a problem that may require the dismissal of the conviction.
In March 2024, Trump’s attorneys moved to limit the scope of evidence to exclude the president’s official acts. Acting judge Merchan denied the motion, claiming it was “untimely.” This questionable judge responded that he could rule on objections based on presidential immunity during the trial. In addition, this conflicted prosecutor, Bragg, presented prejudicial statements and evidence that were presented by the district attorney at trial. The Prosecution described an event in the Oval Office as “devastating” and introduced statements by the president and witness testimony about working for the president in the White House. None of this would be permitted under the Supreme Court ruling. This official-acts evidence should never have been put before the jury, and this quest to find Trump guilty by any means is starting to backfire. All of this is because, to convert a misdemeanor to a felon, they used the Federal Election of 2016, and that led to introducing even official acts in the White House.
The Supreme Court held that a president “may not be prosecuted for exercising his core constitutional powers, and he is entitled, at a minimum, to a presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts.” Prosecutors would have to rebut the presumptive immunity for official acts before he could be charged for them.
Acting Judge Merchan has ordered that the sentencing of former President Donald Trump will be postponed from July 11th, which was timed for the Republican Convention to create as much chaos as possible, to September 18, 2024, at 10:00 AM “for the imposition of sentence, if such is still necessary, or other proceedings.” I think a first-semester law student would have to conclude that, at the very minimum, this will be a mistrial, and Constitutionally, it is doubtful that this prosecution is even valid.
Our computer has been showing all year that Sepetember would be a Panic Cycle, and we are looking at some major event unfolding then. It may be more related to politics in the United States than geopolitical matters.
Posted originally on the CTH on July 2, 2024 | Sundance
James Clyburn and Barack Obama are the two democrats who could unilaterally remove Joe Biden by withdrawing their support. It must frustrate Jill Biden to know The Lightbringer and the Ballot Master have that kind of leverage over her appointments at Tiffanys.
As a result of this dynamic, we remind everyone to pay close attention to how Clyburn and Obama are indicating their position.
Additionally, it is worth remembering how Obama and Clyburn agreed on Kamala Harris as the VP selection in 2020, and informed Joe Biden who would be on his ticket. The Jussie Smollet operation was still active when Kamala was installed with Biden.
During an MSNBC interview today, James Clyburn expressed support for Kamala Harris to ascend the top of the ticket if Biden makes the decision to remove himself.
Keep in mind, Biden will not quit. The decision to exit will be made for Biden, and within the departure process all deference will be given to the Biden group to shape their exit.
The Obama/Clyburn professionally Democratic power brokers within the DNC collective will make the decision; Biden will just be given the opportunity to make it look like it’s his choice. That’s the way Democrats roll.
"No. This party should not, in any way, do anything to work around Ms. Harris. We should do everything we can to bolster her whether she's in second place or at the top of the ticket."
Most astute political followers can predict that “racism” is once again going to be a big part of the campaign strategy to defeat President Trump. However, after years of beating the same drum with louder and louder severity, the grievance industry has run into the risk of creating deaf ears.
The DNC operation (Obama/BLM network) concentrates heavily on the ballot harvesting. However, when they turn those ballots over to the county level precinct workers, that’s where the AME church network and South Carolina Representative James Clyburn come into play. {GO DEEP}
Posted originally on the CTH on July 2, 2024 | Sundance
The tip of the Lawfare spear consists of a small group of former DOJ attorneys and Main Justice leftists who helped AG Eric Holder create the DOJ National Security Division (DOJ-NSD) when it was formed on behalf of President Obama.
Lawfare, writ large, are a tribe of leftists who strategically weaponize the justice systems within the DOJ. They are also the main guides, strategists and legal analysts who previously used Robert Mueller and currently use Jack Smith.
The tribe is led by a trio of fellow travelers: Mary McCord, Norm Eisen and Andrew Weissmann.
If you research the group, you will discover that Mary McCord sits at the center of every attack approach deployed against President Trump {CITATION}. The influence of McCord cannot be overstated, while gender fluid leftists like Eisen, Weissmann (and others), wax philosophically about which statutes can be twisted and interpreted to assist their Lawfare strategy du jour.
Everything we have watched unfold, from using “The Logan Act” against Michael Flynn, to using “The Insurrection Act” against President Trump and the J-6 targets, comes from this small crew of effeminate leftists.
The similarity of the Lawfare behavioral proclivities is an outcome of their tribal synchronicity. Much like the McClintock or Wellesley effect, when you isolate Lawfare individuals into a small tribe, their collective behaviors replicate.
This crew of Brookings funded Lawfare ideologues was also described by Christine Blasey-Ford as her “Beach Friends.” Since leaving official government positions, the key trio of leadership congregate professionally on MSNBC and feed the leftists in media and politics from their primary cable outlet.
I noted, during a recent flight filled with DC bureaucrats and IC officials (United Airlines), how they all watched MSNBC on their seat monitors as if it was a religious service that needed to be attended. It really was a sight to see. Every bureaucrat, active or retired, seated with their laptop under the headrest monitor while typing, texting and DM’ing in unison like synchronized swimmers.
That experience was the first time I realized how the term “NPC’s” or non-Player Characters might have originated as a meme, but the label was eerily accurate.
FBI HQ left, Main Justice building right
The alarming aspect to the tribal Lawfare approach, is to realize how this essentially very small group of former DOJ-NSD lawyers commands such an oversized influence on our national politics.
In reality, this crew is likely less than 20 full-time characters with about a half-dozen lawyers used as spokespeople. Essentially, the public voice to keep the hardcore leftists on the optimal message. However, this group also writes the legal strategies for all of the attack approaches used in Atlanta, Georgia (Fani Willis), New York (Alvin Bragg) and DC/FL with Special Counsel Jack Smith.
Within Main Justice, it is Deputy AG Lisa Monaco who takes the Lawfare instructions from the outside group and funnels them back into actionable work within the DOJ (ie to Jack Smith). It’s a similar process as to how the inside and outside group coordinated and used Robert Mueller.
Andrew Weissmann, Mary McCord and Norm Eisen (with occasional guests), can be seen daily watching very closely how their legal briefs, citations and structured legal motions are being used. Yes, it is their written words, their legal briefs, and their filings that are signed by the government officials and submitted into multiple judicial venues.
♦ Well, that’s who they are…. So, we cannot say we don’t know the exact names of the people at the epicenter of the operation, and you do not need to read the proverbial overuse of the word “they” without knowing exactly who they are.
With the Supreme Court ruling yesterday on presidential immunity, the Lawfare group is absolutely apoplectic and fraught with anxiety about it.
Why?
Why this much extreme vitriol?
The answer is very simple. Andrew Weissmann speaks about the exact reason in this soundbite. Listen at the 01:37 point, when Weissmann says the ruling now puts the President in charge of the DOJ-NSD. THAT reality is beyond alarming to a group who have lived in a world where they were untouchable. WATCH:
What exactly is the background here?
This is where CTH readers are miles ahead, at least a year ahead, of where the reality of this story will eventually end up. Andrew Weissmann is concerned because the Supreme Court just put the DOJ-NSD back into a box where they are accountable within the Executive Branch.
Remember, Barack Obama and Eric Holder created the DOJ-NSD using the authorities granted to the administrative state by the bureaucracy following 9/11. Specifically, because the Dept of Homeland Security (DHS) was created, and within that dynamic the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) was established. DHS would now be the weaponized umbrella organization, and the power granted to the DNI would establish the need for the DOJ-NSD.
In the era shortly after 9/11, the DC national security apparatus was constructed to preserve continuity of government and simultaneously view all Americans as potential threats. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) were created specifically for this purpose.
What Barack Obama and Eric Holder did with that new construct was refine the internal targeting mechanisms, so that only their ideological opposition became the target of the new national security system. This is very important to understand as you dig deeper.
Washington DC created the modern national security apparatus immediately and hurriedly after 9/11/01. DHS came along in 2002, and within the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 the ODNI was formed. When Barack Obama and Eric Holder arrived a few years later, those newly formed institutions were viewed as opportunities to create a very specific national security apparatus that would focus almost exclusively against their political opposition.
Eric Holder created the DOJ-National Security Division for exactly the purpose of weaponizing the DOJ to target their political opposition. This is what the DOJ-NSD does under the auspices of “National Security.” The FARA violation monitoring is one of the more well-known operations within the DOJ-NSD, and from that construct you find the original justification for the NSA database monitoring.
The surveillance of Americans shifted around the roles and responsibilities within Main Justice after the DOJ-NSD was created. The National Security Division took over Foreign Agent Registration Act monitoring as well as FISA. Both FARA and FISA required some form of downstream surveillance within the authority of the NSD.
The FBI counterintelligence division became the investigative offshoot to assist the NSD, and due to the tightrope of legal compliance issues, lawyers from the NSD were dispatched into the FBI to give legal assistance on the surveillance side. This is how NSD lawyers like Lisa Page, Tashina Guahar and Kevin Clinesmith end up encircling FBI officials like Peter Strzok and Andrew McCabe.
Within this newly created DOJ-NSD, there was no inspector general oversight, so the internal officials were unaccountable, had no reason to worry about anyone looking at them, and they were generally running amok. In 2015 the Office of the DOJ Inspector General requested oversight, and it was Deputy AG Sally Yates who responded with a lengthy 58-page legal explanation saying, essentially, ‘nope – not allowed.’ (PDF HERE) All of the DOJ is subject to oversight, except the NSD.
We discover just how ridiculous and partisan the NSD became through the outcomes of the Hillary Clinton investigation. The Clinton investigation was operated by the FBI and the unaccountable DOJ-NSD.
Yesterday, in a stunning opinion that destabilized the Lawfare ideologues, the Supreme Court affirmed the Unitary Executive principle around the constitution.
The 6-3 opinion held that the President is “a person alone who comprises a branch of government.” This is important to understand. The Executive Branch is the President.
As noted by reader Alex1689: […] Read the SCOTUS opinion, not from a point of view of apprehension about President Trump (he’ll be fine), but from the point of view of what does this allow him to do in his second term, and what straightjackets does it remove that were a threat during his first term?
To start, the court wrote about powers that carry with them core, absolute immunity, the exercise of which cannot come under question in any forum. It specifically identified:
Pardons
Recognition of foreign governments
Removal of executive branch officials.
If it can’t be questioned . . . It also cannot be the grounds for impeachment, can it?
Let’s repeat: If it’s a core power, the exercise of the core power cannot be grounds for impeachment (*except if done in connection with taking a bribe).
In his first term, there was the threat that if President Trump fired . . .
Rosenstein Barr Fauci
That he would be prosecuted for obstruction of justice or impeached.
That threat is forever off the table now.
He can fire anyone he likes in the executive branch. The straightjacket is gone.
On that point, further, the majority opinion uses strong language consistent with the Unitary Executive theory of the Constitution. The President is “a person alone who comprises a branch of government.”
While there are areas of shared constitutional responsibility, the core powers of the Executive Branch, including personnel, are the President’s alone.
While impeachment is a political process within the Legislative Branch, and the Supreme Court is extremely hesitant to overstep their role therein, they did put this sentiment clearly into the opinion about immunity: …“The President is not above the law. But Congress may not criminalize the President’s conduct in carrying out the responsibilities of the Executive Branch under the Constitution.”…
Congress may not criminalize the conduct of the President simply for carrying out his core executive branch duties. Removal of Executive Branch officials is a core duty, an official act, carrying absolute immunity.
That newly affirmed reality is exactly why Andrew Weissmann and the Lawfare crowd are very alarmed.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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