Posted Originally on Sep 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
As I have noted before, the Roman historian Sallust concluded that the decline of the Roman Republic truly began once Rome had eliminated its external enemies—Carthage, Corinth, and Macedonia among them. With no foreign foe left to unite against, the Romans turned inward and tore themselves apart in bitter factional strife. That observation applies with striking force to our present political crisis. The United States, Europe, Canada, and parts of Asia and the Middle East have fractured into Left versus Right, and no shared sense of unity remains—no loyalty to country or people that transcends the divide. Each side wages war to destroy the opponent it despises. Unfortunately, this is our fate, and we must recognize it as it unfolds on the road to 2032. For now, the next two years threaten to become a living hell, with no one left to defend the country or its people. While others offer personal opinions, I do not have that luxury. My job is to relay what the computer is projecting.
The overwhelming downside of a Democratic victory is that they are the pro-war party. A Gallup poll from last April showed that only 19% of Democrats were optimistic about a possible peace deal. As I have said before, it is almost always the Democratic Party that takes us into war. Wilson led us into World War I. FDR led us into World War II. Truman nuked Japan and took us into Korea. Johnson took us into Vietnam. Dick Cheney usurped foreign policy and took us into Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama tried to take us into Syria, while Hillary Clinton oversaw the gun-running neoconservative operation in Benghazi.
Look, for decades I have warn governments that this current system will collapse and a 2-year-old with a pocket calculator can figure that one out. For fiscal year 1980, the gross interest cost on the national debt was $74.8 billion. To put that in context, the total national debt at that time was roughly $715 billion and everyone was freaking out that it was going to hit $1 trillion.
Projections for fiscal year 2026 indicate net interest payments will reach approximately $1.0 trillion. Some data from the first nine months of the fiscal year shows net interest payments already totaled $827 billion on a $40 trillion national debt.
Interest expenditures on U.S. national debt first exceeded military spending in 2024. The Net Interest Payments was $879.9 billion compared to National Defense Spending $850.7 billion.
It’s not rocket science – just math. What happens is that interest expenditure keep rising because they only roll the debt and NEVER pay it off. Eventually, the interest expenditures crowd out all other spending. We reach the 50% level of the national debt was accumulative interest expenditures in 2024. This will not end nicely!!!!!
The Democrats will completely destroy the United States by 2032, and it is going to get ugly from 2028 onward. Why? I am not being partisan here, because the Republicans will not touch real reform either, fearing the people are not ready to make sacrifices. Consider Elizabeth Warren, who is determined to transform the United States into a socialist republic. She is obsessed with robbing the rich—whom she defines as anyone with more millions than she has—as if this is some kind of solution. It is just a band-aid on a bullet hole.
As reported, in a post on X Wednesday, Warren compared workers earning $60,000 and $184,500 with someone earning $10 million, saying the first two pay Social Security taxes on all their earnings while the higher earner pays the tax only on the first $184,500. “That doesn’t make sense,” Warren wrote. “We can protect Social Security if everyone paid their fair share.” Yet that contradicts what Social Security was supposed to be.
Social Security was sold to the American public as a “contribution” to present the program as social insurance, but the Supreme Court upheld it as a tax, and it was always collected through the IRS. The cap exists because Social Security was designed as a social insurance program, not a general welfare or savings account. Warren now wants to alter Social Security and transform it into a welfare benefit that will take care of all the illegal immigrants they protect to boost their voting rolls.
There is zero understanding of the world economy. Even with inflation, people see the price, assume the price is the problem, and propose regulation—but the price is simply the message. You have not just the Middle East, with the Strait controlled by Iran, but the Houthis determined to cripple Saudi Arabia. Throw in Zelensky, and our computer warns that crude oil could reach as high as $234 by 2028—especially if the EU and NATO end up going to war with Russia. That would probably lead to the merger of the Middle East conflict with the Ukraine War and draw in China and North Korea. We have support at $80, with resistance at $125 and $188. A year-end 2026 close above $111 will be a message we should not ignore.
Letting migrants into Europe, the United States, and Canada has been a LEFT agenda to retain power—knowing full well that their policies lower economic growth and reduce living standards. Economic growth in Germany has collapsed to 0.8%, and Italy is down to 0.5%. I first encountered this plot when I had a mandate from Hong Kong to negotiate with Australia to buy an island or allow Hong Kong residents to migrate and build their own city in the upper-left region of Australia. The 99-year lease of Hong Kong to the British expired on June 30, 1997, which was when the handover ceremony took place.
They knew I had contacts in Australia and asked me to try to strike a deal. I met with former Prime Minister Paul Keating. Everything I offered was rejected. I told him I had a blank check to pay off their national debt, but the answer was still no. I finally asked him directly if this was racism—was it because they did not like Chinese people? He said no. They were fleeing communism and would vote conservative. Keating led a Labour government. Allowing Hong Kong residents to migrate to Australia would have altered their politics.
They understand this very well. Opening the borders has been about their knowledge that the LEFT has been losing ground and was destined to collapse. Look at this chart. Measuring the Democrats’ total number of seats by combining the Senate and House reveals the long-term trend. The Democrats held their highest percentage back in the early 19th century. Each subsequent high thereafter has been lower. Since FDR and the Great Depression, each rally has produced a declining number of seats. This is what the whole opening of the borders has been about—a desperate attempt to fight the trend and retain power, like Merz in Germany, who refuses to admit the people do not approve of his policies. It is never about the people or what is best for the country. It is always about forcing their ideas upon society.
Politics in Europe, as well as in Canada and the United States, has degenerated into war. It is no longer about compromise, the nation, or the people. They look down upon the people as too stupid to know what is best. This is exactly what Sallust described about the fall of the Roman Republic. The two sides are so far apart that there is simply no mending this political crisis. We are forced to watch it play out, and we cannot simply change the channel.
NEVER are they willing to look at history. And you do not even have to go back that far. Just look at the City of Detroit. They did the same thing as Mamdani in NYC. They exploited the auto industry to the point that all the car companies left town and Detroit went bust in 1933. Mamdani is doing it all over again. He is chasing Wall Street out. The Texas Exchange will reduce the NYSE. Even JPMorgan now has more employees outside of NYC than inside.
NYC was once the largest port in the United States. The labor unions were uncompromising and hostile. The companies left town, and nobody docks in NYC anymore. No matter what you show them, they refuse to listen.
I find it interesting that there was even a communist state in Sparta, Greece. They were the only Greek city that never issued coins, because you were effectively an economic slave to the state, barred from accumulating wealth. Maybe AOC and Elizabeth Warren were married to Mamdani in ancient Sparta in another life. It is fascinating that their philosophy of always coveting their neighbor’s wealth is expressly forbidden in the Ten Commandments. That demonstrates there is this dark side to humanity that has been around for thousands of years.
We have incompetent people in government everywhere. While individuals learn from past mistakes in most cases, governments have no cumulative knowledge. Hence, they make the same mistakes from one generation to the next. There is no collective societal knowledge base. Thus, we are living in Groundhog Day, with the same crazy mistakes being made over and over and over again, incapable of breaking this vicious cycle.
I have warned that the computer has been projecting that 2028 will be sheer political chaos. Between now and then, we are in an unrelenting war cycle that turned up in 2014 and is escalating into 2027 from every direction. There is no sanity left anywhere. The Middle East has no resolution, for this is a religious war with each side looking to fulfill prophecy. Ukraine is consumed with sheer hatred that prevents any reasonable solution. Europe needs war because its climate change policies destroyed the German economy, and on top of that, they opened the borders and flooded the country, altering its culture forever. As tensions rise, following Sallust, they desperately need an external enemy to create unity and retain power in Brussels. The Democrats are so pro-war that they will seize power and fund Ukraine to utter destruction.
Congressional investigations will happen on an unprecedented scale, even for Washington. The Democrats are going to focus on 2028, and the best way to take over the country will be to expose the Trump Administration as rotten to the core. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has already said they would immediately focus on “corruption.” Jim Himes (D., Conn.) has expressed the same attitude, calling it “nakedly corrupt dealings” between the Trump administration and companies. My concerns are not so much about that, because the Democrats pander to corporations for big bucks as well. My concern is the President’s son-in-law, Kushner, who is NOT an actual government employee; he and his sidekick are “volunteers,” and this structure is meant to avoid FOIA filings, as Hillary did with her private server. If I were them, I would prepare to be torn apart limb from limb.
As we head into 2028, there will certainly be no shortage of Democratic candidates, ranging from governors and members of Congress to outsiders with thick skin. Democrats have desperately, as a whole, tried to navigate this midterm election without really confronting the differences between their Democratic Socialists of America flank and the more practical center of the party. This is what we should expect to see in the headlines as we head into 2028.
Capital flows are shifting as money moves from PUBLIC to PRIVATE. Bond markets globally are in crisis, for as you beat the war drums, debt rises and the loser always defaults. I have warned that we are in a PRIVATE WAVE that concludes with a peak in 2032. This is when capital shifts from government bonds to private assets. We are in the EVERYTHING BUBBLE, where stocks, real estate, art, gold, silver, and commodities in general tend to be tangible assets to which capital will flee. Others are starting to notice this trend.
When we do this year’s WEC in December 4, 5, and 6, we will have a lot to discuss. This is the only way to surve such a wave and we are in the final stages. What to avoid, and where to go.
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