Posted originally on the CTH on September 12, 2024 | Sundance
The Fulton County judge overseeing the Fani Willis constructed lawfare case against President Trump has just told the prosecution they must drop another two charges as DA Willis is trying to use a state court to prosecute federal charges.
VIA CBS – […] Fulton County Judge Scott McAfee said the two counts fall under federal jurisdiction. Both counts deal with conspiracy and filing false documents. Five counts of the original indictment against Trump have now been dismissed. Three were dropped earlier this year by Judge McAfee, who ruled that the charges lacked detail. Trump now faces eight remaining counts in the case, out of the original 13. (read more)
The Georgia case is currently in the appeals court over the prior ruling that Fani Willis should be permitted to stay on the prosecution of Trump after her boyfriend, the lawyer prosecuting the case, was forcibly removed due to the inherent conflict of interest. The appellate court ruling on Willis’ status is not anticipated before the November election.
Posted originally on Sep 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The latest video surfacing from a New York Federal Prosecutor’s office says what the entire world knows: that Bragg’s case is BS and that he has brought this case to climb the ladder politically. This is what prosecutors do. Since Guiliani prosecuted John Gotti and became Mayor, the same took place with Christi in New Jersey. The ONLY way to end this corruption in our legal system is to bring indictments ONLY by a unanimous committee vote – not an individual prosecutor. Once an individual prosecutor charges you, that’s it. His personal career is on the line, and when dead wrong, he will not simply say sorry and drop the indictment. This video that has surfaced has forced Merchan to postpone the sentencing, for he will be appearing as if this is a witch-hunt to interfere in an election.
Posted originally on the CTH on September 6, 2024 | Sundance
There’s a lot of positive commentary about this judicial decision; however, my hopium account balance is overdrawn. Let me present a factual angle of how the Deep State may use this. FYI if you have watched the corruption unfolding for the past few years, you will understand this is not doomerism; it’s pragmatic caution.
There is an argument to be made that Merchan, who has already shown stunningly political bias against President Trump, will operate only on the political LAWFARE interests of those who support him, regardless of consequence.
Judge Merchan is a rogue lawfare element, do not try to convince me he is bound by any legal or judicial limitations.
If you accept the possibility of political LAWFARE, then consider Judge Merchan may be positioned as an insurance policy against President Donald Trump taking office. The scenario would be President Trump winning the election (too big to rig) and then finding himself being sentenced to prison after his victory.
Not only would this scenario play into the hands of those who promise to defeat Trump even in victory, it would also create constitutional crisis, upend the political system and likely trigger something akin to a civil war – exactly what the IC/Deep State would relish.
Also, under this scenario those Sea Island folks advising RFK Jr and Ron DeSantis might have something other than altruism behind their current endorsement status, just sayin’. Don’t ever underestimate the scheming, conniving efforts of these crews.
NEW YORK — Donald Trump’s sentencing for his criminal conviction in Manhattan will be delayed until after Election Day, a judge ruled Friday, handing the former president a significant victory that will leave voters in the dark about his possible punishment, including a potential prison sentence, as they head to the polls.
The sentencing, previously scheduled for Sept. 18, is now set for Nov. 26.
Justice Juan Merchan, the judge who oversaw the trial and is responsible for sentencing Trump, said he wants to avoid any impression that the sentencing could give an advantage or disadvantage to “any political party and/or any candidate for any office.”
“The Court is a fair, impartial and apolitical institution,” Merchan wrote in a letter to lawyers in the case. (read more)
Posted originally on Sep 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
In Rippo v Baker 589 US _, 137 S. Ct. 905, 197 L. Ed. 2d 167 (2017), the United States Supreme Court held that the Nevada Supreme Court erred by requiring evidence of actual bias to demand a judge’s recusal. The Court held that evidence of actual bias is not required to demand recusal of a judge. In this case, Rippo was sentenced to death after a Nevada jury convicted him of first-degree murder along with other charges. Upon discovering that his trial judge may have been involved in federal bribes, Rippo suspected that the district attorney’s office was investigating the case. Rippo made a motion to disqualify the judge under the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, stating that it was impossible for a judge to impartially adjudicate a case in which one of the parties was investigating him, but the judge declined to recuse himself. The trial judge was indicted on federal charges, and a new judge denied Rippo’s motion for a new trial.
On appeal, the Nevada Supreme Court affirmed the decision, holding that Rippo did not have evidence that state authorities were involved in the investigation. Pointing to documents from the judge’s own trial that supported his claim that the district attorney’s office had been involved with the investigation, Rippo sought postconviction relief. The court denied relief, and the Nevada State Supreme Court affirmed showing how courts hold that judges are really above the law.
Analysis: In Bracy v. Gramley 520 U.S. 899 (1997), a U.S. Supreme Court case involving a judge who accepted bribes to rule in favor of some defendants and against others who did not bribe him, the Court held that the petitioner was entitled to a discovery hearing. Although the nature of the case was speculative, the petitioner had alleged facts suggesting that his defense counsel may have schemed with the judge to rush the trial. The Nevada Supreme Court held that, unlike Bracy v. Gramley, since Rippo’s allegations did not support the assertion that the trial judge was actually biased, Rippo was not entitled to an evidentiary hearing.
The U.S. Supreme Court held that the Nevada Supreme Court applied the wrong legal standard. They noted that under the Due Process Clause, a judge may sometimes require recusal even when a judge has no actual bias. To determine whether recusal is required, courts look to whether the probability of actual bias on the part of the judge or decisionmaker is too high to be constitutionally tolerable. Because the Nevada Supreme Court did not ask the question of probability but, instead, actual evidence of bias, the U.S. Supreme Court vacated the judgment.
There is no question that under the Supreme Court, this pretend “acting judge” should have recused himself, and the entire NY system of justice is an international disgrace. Fair trials in NYC are simply impossible. This acting judge is interested in one thing only – stopping Trump from becoming president. The NY Court should be stepping in, given the national importance of this case. But, too, are out to interfere in the election. This is why the United States will never stand as a single country. For now, they do not care even about the appearance of law, and “justice” is now a two-word statement – “JUST US,” Nothing is now safe in NYC – NOTHING!!!!!
Special counsel Jack Smith filed a superseding indictment in the same DC case, showing how desperate the Democrats are to stop Trump from winning the White House, for he and RFK would shut down the Neocons who are taking us into World War III. Smith is outright seeking to Interfere in the 2024 Election. Smith was also never appointed or approved by Congress. He is an unauthorized hack of Merrick Garland, another Neocon who hates Russians. Garland also claims that his family was persecuted by Russians, along with Antony Blinken and Victoria Nuland. What are the odds that three people with personal family grievances with Russians control the Biden White House?
The FBI has conceded that they had so many agents there on January 6th that they could not even give a number to Congress. There is reasonable doubt as to who actually broke into the Capitol. Was it FBI undercover that created the affair to allow Pelosi to suspend normal rules for counting the votes? They want to blame Trump, but the beneficiary was actually Pelosi and Biden. There was also concern that calling in the National Guard presented an unspoken risk. Those in the military tend to lean more toward Trump than Biden. There were concerns that the National Guard could have switched sides and supported Trump vs Pelosi/Biden. After all, that is how coups often take place.
The actual rigging of the election took place in Congress. The claims that Trump denied bringing in the National Guard was false. Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg testified before Congress that President Donald Trump did, in fact, request National Guard troops be deployed in Washington D.C. before the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Kellogg also said he was present at the time of Trump’s request and that Congress should release his testimony to the public, but the Democrats withheld that testimony. The American Military News also wrote:
“David Bossie, who wrote the Washington Times op-ed noted Jan. 3 conversation between Trump and Miller and said the Jan. 6 select committee is “crafting a narrative that doesn’t quite add up and omits important facts that would not stand if there were proper Republican representation on the committee.”
NBC News reported that the commanding general of the District of Columbia National Guard told members of Congress Wednesday that he had troops ready to deploy immediately to the Capitol on Jan. 6th. Still, it took more than three hours for the Defense Department to give the green light. This has raised questions about the Deep State and did they delayed the National Guard to ensure that the FBI broke the windows and led the protestors into the Capitol so that Pelosi was able to declare EMERGENCY RULES, shutting down all challenges to any state vote. If a state is challenged, it is to be debated in the full House. Pelosi imposed the COVID Rule that restricts the maximum number of people on the floor to 53. Any election rigging took place in Congress. It was not about voting machines or dead people voting which always takes place in every election.
Jack Smith has revised everything because he would have had to reveal his case is a mini-trial all over evidence in light of the Supreme Court. If Smith had tried to proceed under the original indictment would have given Trump a hearing that would have turned into a mini-trial. Smith would have been forced to bring in his witnesses and experts to testify and make the case for why Trump’s charges should remain or should be dropped. This superseding indictment was really to fold his case, which would have been questionable to begin with, and he would have lost respect in the public eye all before the election. The judges in all of Trump’s ongoing criminal cases must go through to apply the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision.
While we have the diehard Democrats who do not care about the Constitution or the rule of law, they spell “justice” using two words: “JUST US” and do not care about the future. The Supreme Court also held that prosecutors have ABSOLUTE IMMUNITY and judges, but the President should not be above the law? Why? They are?
The Supreme Court in 1993 also was confronted by the constant abuse of prosecutors in an investigative context. They finally ruled that abuse of the investigative process is grounds to deny the prosecutor’s absolute immunity under Buckley v. Fitzsimmons, 509 U.S. 259 (1993). That ruling reversed the holding of Absolute Immunity for prosecutors. The Immunity decision in the Trump case follows the same path that official acts are immune, the same as Smith enjoys. Still, UNOFFICIAL acts do not carry absolute immunity in the same way as the improper investigative acts Smith.
So let’s stop the partisan BS, and without the rule of law, NO NATION can stand!!!!!!!
This superseding indictment was to avoid an evidentiary hearing that would have been a mini-trial that would have Smith losing much of his wind, looking to the entire world that is just a partisan hack with the sole purpose of interfering in the 2024 election.
Posted originally on the CTH on August 27, 2024 | Sundance
It’s really not Jack Smith, so we should drop the pretenses. Mary McCord, Norm Eisen and Andrew Weissmann have recrafted a new DC indictment against President Trump by dropping around 10 pages of fraudulent evidence from the prior indictment and labeling it a “superseding indictment.”
The 36-page indictment is available HERE. Essentially, after the supreme court decision on immunity, the majority of the previous case against President Trump was likely to fail, so Mary, Norm and Andrew went back and modified the previously lawfare to fit a narrower scale as requested by the supreme court.
The Lawfare crew then hand off the indictment to Jack Smith who runs it through a Grand Jury, and re-files it as a new set of issues; however, the majority of the case is structurally the same, they just took out the evidence they were using. This fiasco does not appear to be any better than the previous pages of Lawfare.
(Via Politico) – […] The new indictment removes some specific allegations against Trump but contains the same four criminal charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States. It’s a signal that Smith believes the high court’s immunity decision doesn’t pose a major impediment to convicting the former president.
“The superseding indictment, which was presented to a new grand jury that had not previously heard evidence in this case, reflects the Government’s efforts to respect and implement the Supreme Court’s holdings and remand instructions,” Smith’s team wrote in an accompanying court filing.
The development is unlikely to alter the reality that a trial in the case before the November election looks impossible. In fact, the new indictment could drag the case out further — defense attorneys often seek delays after prosecutors revise criminal allegations.
Both sides face a Friday deadline to propose next steps to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, the Biden appointee who is overseeing the proceedings in the trial court. Chutkan has scheduled a Sept. 5 hearing to set a course for the case. (read more)
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I had to write to say thank you so much for everything you do. When Trump was indicted, you said sell and get out of New York. Your advice has always been discussed with our board, and the decision was made to sell in light of your ECM also turning in 2024. We managed to sell our commercial real estate in New York City, and based on the auction that just took place, you saved our company and every employee in our company. With 135 West 50th Street in Midtown Manhattan that was originally sold for $332 million in 2006 and now sold at auction for $8.5 million, reality has struck with a vengeance. Your forecast for New York City will be forever remembered among our ranks. We owe you more than a dinner and a drink.
Thank you ever so much, SC
COMMENT #2: Yesterday, the New York Times ran a sobering real-estate story headlined, “This 23-Floor Manhattan Office Building Just Sold at a 97.5% Discount.” Apparently, inflation hit everything else but missed big-city commercial real estate. The building in the story, which used to headquarter Sports Illustrated, last sold in 2006 —admittedly at peak market— for $332 million dollars. On Wednesday, it sold at auction for only $8 million, a stunning 98% discount.MSREPLY: On Sepetember 2nd, 2023, we warned on the private blog that the “real estate market, 2023 should produce the highest annual closing.” With the ECM turning down into 2028 and war on the horizon, what New York has done to Trump is a warning to get the hell out of New York. This decision was as bad as putting sanctions on Russia, which became a warning to everyone else: if you do not do as the American Neocons command, they will remove you from the SWIFT system.This event in New York City will send tremors throughout the nation. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) peaked on our models in 2020 in REAL TERMS with COVID. Ever since the need for office space has taken a nosedive, as I have said, if I were Trump, I would have handed them an office building for the fine and then bought it back at 10% when they auctioned it off. With its political vendetta against Trump, New York has only made New York City the leader in the decline, and we have NOT seen the bottom yet. This will send panic among the smart people, and this will cause further contagion to spread to residential property, which has been propped up because of jobs in New York City, which we still show are in crash mode into 2028/2029.
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Banks’ CRE loan books’ primary concern is exposure to the office and retail sectors. Based on our sources, we would estimate that banks’ CRE lending financed 46% of office and retail loans which most likely comes in between $700-725 billion. Added to this concern is the concentration of CRE loans on the balance sheets of regional banks. It appears that CRE loans on the books of regional banks amount to about 65% of non-multifamily CRE loans. After this auction, many banks are going to be deeply concerned about the realistic valuation of CRE properties. The risk is that this will further undermine the belief in bank stability going forward.
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Smaller regional banks will most likely pull back from CRE, which will undermine values going forward. Large banks or insurance companies are unlikely candidates to start lending into the CRE sector. The more likely lenders into CRE will probably be private credit investors, but that will also come at higher rates. The total CRE market is valued at over $10 trillion, with the office sector being the largest sector at around 24-25%.
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Refinancing Challenges for CMBS
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There there is the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market that accounts for 20% of the office and retail loans. That comes in around $300 billion+, of which about $22 billion in office loans maturing here in 2024. Typically, up to 50% of that would not be a problem to roll. However, after this sale at auction, many will have second thoughts. Our sources place about 95% of those loans are only backed by Class B and Class C offices. This auction will weaken the funding potential for the lower-quality buildings, and this will accelerate the risk of strategic default into especially 2026.
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When we dig deeper, the 60-day-plus delinquency rate is only about 10%, but it is rising rapidly. This implies that we should expect more stress in the CMBS market between now and 2026. The vacancy rate in major cities nationwide is approaching 20%. In the case of New York City, this particular building had a vacancy rate of about two-thirds. The rents they collected from the remaining tenants were not even enough to cover the ground lease, no less the taxes and upkeep of the building. The losses were catastrophic, especially since they indicted Trump in New York City.
On top of all of that, then you have the flight from the Democratic Blue States to the Red Republican States post-COVID. We addressed the Commerical Real Estate on June 8th, 2023. Where vacancy rates in San Francisco were approaching 30%, in Miami they were the lowest nationally at just 15.8%. We wrote back then:
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“During the first quarter of 2023, U.S. office vacancy topped 20% nationally for the first time really since the Great Depression. Then there are cities that have embraced WOKE to their detriment and are witnessing the worst. In San Francisco, the vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2023 climbed to 29.4%, up from 27.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Manhattan has a vacancy rate of n the first quarter of 2023 at 22.2% according to Cushman & Wakefield. Dallas has been absorbing the flight from California so its vacancy rate is 18.7% according to Cushman & Wakefield. The commercial vacancy rate in Miami, Florida office market has an overall vacancy which has been declining counter-trend to the rest of the nation falling now to 15.8% according to Cushman & Wakefield. In Chicago, Class-A vacancy rate stands at 19.3% while Class-B vacancy jumped to 28.3% according to Cushman & Wakefield.”
–For anyone thinking about leaving major centers like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, it does not matter how low rates might go; there will be no buyers, and you will be stuck where you are until after 2032. You may have already missed the last train.
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