Apr 11 2025

President Trump Wallops China with Massive de minimis Tariff Increases – Mail Order Product Costs from China Will Skyrocket

Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance

Within the Executive Order modifying the April 2nd global reciprocal tariffs [SEE HERE] section #4, we note a massive increase in the duty fees for mailed products from China formerly shipped under ‘de minimis’ rules.

REMINDER: The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800. However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

On April 2nd, as part of the global trade reset and tariff structure, President Trump revoked authorization for Chinese goods to transfer to the USA using the de minimis rule. The de minimis exemption was cancelled for all products coming out of China. The rule change only targeted China and Chinese shippers. No one else. [XO HERE]

Yesterday, as part of the modification to Executive Order #14257, President Trump has increased the baseline tariff for product mailed from China [de minimis tariff] from 30 90 percent to 120%.

Mailed products from China now face a 120% tariff. Additionally, minimum tariff amounts increased from $75 to $100 effective May 1st, and from $150 to $2oo effective June 1st. [See Section #4]

Example: If you order a $20 shirt from China effective June 1st, you will pay $220. $20 for the shirt, and $200 minimum tariff.

There is no way Chinese E-Commerce can survive this level of tariff/duty fees.

♦ SUBVERSION – The only way for the Chinese e-commerce to maneuver this, would be to extend the delivery times and transship through alternate mail and distribution centers, in other countries. Example, mail your $20 shirt to (Vietnam or Mexico or Canada) and have a distribution center then repackage and mail it to the USA. Or, far less likely, the Chinese e-commerce company can set up manufacturing centers in the 3rd party country (Vietnam, or Mexico or Canada) and make it there, not in China (not very likely at all).

President Trump is setting up bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with each of the nations that China might attempt to use as a transshipping hub. Within those pending FTAs, there will certainly be no transshipping allowed, and trade sanctions in the FTAs as punitive punishment if they did it.

Keep watching this mail-order pressure point, because it’s likely to be more substantive -albeit less visible- than the manufacturing tariffs applied toward China directly.

Apr 11 2025

Inflation Drops to Lowest Level in Four Years 2.4%

Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance | 226 Comments

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for February [DATA HERE], reflecting a drop in the year-over-year inflation rate to the lowest level in four years.

The rate of inflation dropped significantly due to lower gasoline (-6.3%) and fuel prices, which directly impacts every middle-class worker. The ripple effects (transportation, warehousing, etc.) from lowered gasoline prices is not yet embedded in the cost of goods, that should start to surface next month.

[BLS Table A]

[…] Consumer prices were up 2.4% in March from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, cooler than February’s gain of 2.8% and well below the 2.6% rise that economists expected.

Prices excluding food and energy categories—the so-called core measure economists watch in an effort to better capture inflation’s underlying trend—rose 2.8%, below forecasts for a 3% increase. That was the smallest increase in the core measure since March 2021. (read more)

For those who have travelled the MAGAnomic weeds with us, you will note this is the way overall lower inflation starts to surface under Trump policy. This is exactly what happened in 2017 and continued throughout late 2019 until COVID-19 hit. President Trump’s economic policies drop the rate of inflation, and eventually lower prices.

The downward price pressure from lower energy costs will eventually surface in lower food costs.

The same media who said Joe Biden was not responsible for massive inflation, will also say President Trump is not responsible for dropping inflation. However, the average American can see that under Joe Biden stuff cost more, and under Donald Trump stuff starts costing less. Policy does change prices.

Wall Street will hate these results, Main Street will love them.

Apr 11 2025

Komrade von der Leyen Orders Pause on EU Retaliation Tariffs Pending Engagement with Trump Administration

Posted originally on CTH on April 10, 2025 | Sundance

Komrade Ursula von der Leyen represents the European Commission command and control authority, regardless of whether the individual members within the containment zone agree with the HQ in Brussels.

Komisar von der Leyen informs the union members that she has decided to pause the retaliation tariffs against the USA, based on the 90-day pause announced by President Trump. However, in actuality there’s not much difference even within the pause as the German/EU autos are still tariffed (25%) and the steel and Aluminum tariffs’ (25%) still apply.

The only gain from yesterday’s modification in the global tariff regime for the EU was a switch from 20% EU tariff to a baseline 10% tariff during the pause.

The total EU relief is 10% for 90-days; but that was enough for Komrade Ursula to mount her high-horse and claim magnanimity status.

According to von der Leyen, “if negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in.”[SOURCE]

“I welcome President Trump’s announcement to pause reciprocal tariffs. It’s an important step towards stabilizing the global economy.

Clear, predictable conditions are essential for trade and supply chains to function.

Tariffs are taxes that only hurt businesses and consumers. That’s why I’ve consistently advocated for a zero-for-zero tariff agreement between the European Union and the United States.

The European Union remains committed to constructive negotiations with the United States, with the goal of achieving frictionless and mutually beneficial trade.

At the same time, Europe continues to focus on diversifying its trade partnerships, engaging with countries that account for 87% of global trade and share our commitment to a free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas.

Finally, we are stepping up our work to lift barriers in our own single market. This crisis has made one thing clear: in times of uncertainty, the single market is our anchor of stability and resilience.

My team and I will continue to work day and night to protect European consumers, workers and businesses. Together, Europeans will emerge stronger from this crisis.

We took note of the announcement by President Trump.

We want to give negotiations a chance.

While finalising the adoption of the EU countermeasures that saw strong support from our Member States, we will put them on hold for 90 days.

If negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in.

Preparatory work on further countermeasures continues.

As I have said before, all options remain on the table.” (source)

Before President Trump’s announcement on Wednesday, EU member countries voted to approve retaliatory tariffs on $23 billion in goods in response to the 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Those steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place, but the EU cancelled their retaliation.