Posted originally on Aug 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

I am getting an increasing number of questions about how in the world our model forecasts war in advance and targets specific weeks like August 18th, 2025, a year in advance, and then Trump picks that Friday 15th for his peace conference with Putin in Alaska.  You NEVER make such a forecast using a single model. There is a battery of models, and in those arrays, there are 72 models. That top line we call the aggregate because that is the sum of all turning models that align for that target – it is NEVER just one. The computer is monitoring the entire world. You can see all the reports that Socrates is writing every day. There are not enough analysts in the world to cover so many instruments and statistics. On December 3rd, 2013, I formally posted that the tensions would erupt in Ukraine.

Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch

Posted Dec 3, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

“We will have the Cycle of War ready shortly updating this development as this cycle turns next year as well and we can see the rising tensions are brewing everywhere. Ukraine may become the focal point with Russia smelling the blood of a weak Europe and United States. This is like the barbarians smelling the weakness of Rome and knew it was time to strike. Russia is all about restoring its national honor. The USA has weakened itself like Rome by fiscal mismanagement.”

This is a model specificly between Russia and the United States. It starts with the 1962 target of the Cuban Missile Crisis set in motion by Nikita Khrushchev, who was overthrown on October 14, 1964, (1964.786) during a Politburo coup orchestrated by his political opponents, including Leonid Brezhnev and Alexei Kosygin, because of his reckless desire to spread communism to the world (We Will Bury You). That was 1.978 years from the Cuban Missile Crisis (721.97 days, 103.13 weeks, or about 24 months later).

Here you can see this separate model targeted 2014.408, which was May 4th, 2014. This was the Odessa Genocide when Ukrainians killed Russians on the street and then burned them alive, and then ran into the Trade Union Building for shelter. This was what began the separation movement by the Russians in the Donbas because they were being hunted like animals, and the Western press had no problem with the resumption of Nazi Ethnic Cleansing because they were Russian. Neocons dominate the EU with personal hatred of Russians from generations before. They love to imprison people who just have words against migrants. Still, they have no problem advocating genocide of an entire ethnicity, following in the footsteps of Hitler all over again.

• May 2: Deadly clashes in Odessa between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian groups resulted in over 40 deaths, mainly in a building fire.
• May 11: Pro-Russian separatists held disputed independence referendums in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• May 25: Presidential elections were held in Ukraine, with Petro Poroshenko winning decisively. Separatist-controlled areas largely boycotted or disrupted voting.

Direct talks between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul, Türkiye, on May 15, 2025, precisely on the turning point, marking the first potential face-to-face negotiations since 2022. However, there is conflicting information about whether the meeting occurred as planned. My sources informed me that both Russian and Ukrainian delegations were present in Istanbul, with the Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky and the Ukrainian delegation headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The next major turning point is June 13th, 2026.

We are now starting to see a Panic Cycle forming at this next Major Target of June 2026. Keep in mind that this ECM is NOT included in the arrays. The more separate models we have, the better the correlation, and we can then rely on these forecasts with more confidence.

Russia also now occupies Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, in the Eastern region, which Putin may ask for. So far, Ukraine’s leadership has opposed ceding any territory to Russia. Zelenskyy wrote on X, “Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same brave approach from the Russian side. It is time we ended the war.”

The NY Post wrote: “European officials rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calls that Ukraine give up territories annexed during the war — instead demanding Saturday an immediate ceasefire from Moscow and NATO membership for Kyiv.” This merely confirms my sources that warn the EU, NATO, and Zelensky want war and they are conspiring to create a false flag to invoke Article % to embarrass Trump into sending troops to Ukraine to annihilate Russia completely. They want to conquer Russia entirely, and they seek to steal all its wealth so that the EU, desperate to survive, will become the next Roman Empire, subordinating the United States once again to a mere colony.

I do have contact with people close to Trump who I at least trust are NOT Neocons, which I cannot say for everyone surrounding him. Will they get Trump to listen? Probably not. The frustrating part is I tend to get called in when they F-up everything that I warned would take place, and then they expect me to be like Merlin the Sorcerer, wave my magic wand, and it’s all gone.

If the EU had honored the peace deal that they signed and allowed the Donbas to vote and separate as took place in Chechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, which both split along ethnic lines, this war would NEVER have taken place. The EU has conspired from day one to sacrifice the Ukrainian people on the NEOCON altar of hatred for Russians who are no longer communists, and their hated leader, Stalin, was not even a Russian. He was from Georgia.

It was all the cross-treaties that compelled nations to join World War I. NATO was established to result in the very same mistake that caused that war, and they are licking their lips, drooling over the thought of finally defeating and obliterating their enemy Russia, even though communism fell all by itself.

NATO’s intervention in Bosnia in 1995 was part of Operation Deliberate Force, a sustained air campaign conducted from August 30 to September 20, 1995, to pressure Bosnian Serb forces to comply with UN resolutions and end the siege of Sarajevo. NATO has routinely sought to bomb Serbia because it has been pro-Russian.

NATO entered Kosovo on June 12th, 1999 (1999.446), following the end of the Kosovo War. This marked the beginning of the Kosovo Force (KFOR), a NATO-led pretend international peacekeeping mission. NATO’s Air Campaign (March–June 1999) was conducted over a 78-day (1999.660) bombing campaign (Operation Allied Force) against Yugoslavia (then including Serbia and Montenegro) to stop the repression of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. They had no problem bombing Serbs because they were pro-Russia. This is why NATO never came to the rescue of the Russians in the Donbas when it was the Ukrainians carrying out the same genocide as Hitler, because the target was Russians—the first 51.6-year wave from the start of NATO ended on November 14th, 2000. Since there was grave concern that NATO was intervening in the Yugoslav War against pro-Russians when there were no NATO members, this forced the EU to establish a 60,000-strong rapid reaction force for peacekeeping and crisis management, marking a step toward greater European defense autonomy outside of NATO, so the US could not object.

NATO pushed to get Finland and Sweden, which had always been neutral, to surrender that neutrality and join NATO, thereby placing the Swedes under Article 5 to supply troops for NATO at the expense of their people and nation. NATO is using the precedent of Bosnia and Kosovo, where there was no NATO membership, to argue that they can now invade any country they desire using a humanitarian excuse.

ALL of my sources are saying that no matter what Trump agrees to with Putin, they will not honor it. Letting Russia retain the Donbas is what the dishonest EU signed as the Minsk Agreement and NEVER intended to allow peace at any time. The EU is crumbling from within. It will fragment and is being starkly divided as many see it as a UNDEMOCRATIC dictatorship where the Parliament is elected, but he has NO POWER even to make laws. It is a facade to pretend the people have a say when they do not.

The EU will split and may become a relic of history and a failed globalist-dictatorship experiment by 2030. When it was formed, the promise was no dictatorship without 100% consensus. But Hungary is fighting back against this pro-WWIII drive and for the migrants. The EU seeks to strip Hungary of its vote to ensure the EU will remain a dictatorship. They say you can vote your way into Socialism, but you must shoot your way out. In this case, the German people were not even allowed to vote to join the Euro, as some others. Kohl did not allow the people to vote in any referendum to join the Eurozone. Other countries that did not allow their people to vote in a referendum specifically on adopting the euro are: