Posted originally on Aug 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a troubling quarterly statement as the total household debt in the US increased by $185 billion in the past three months, up 1% from last quarter, when total household debt reached $18.9 trillion. Total household debt in the US now sits at $18.39 trillion.
Housing debt increased 1.1% from April to June, now standing at $149 billion. Mortgage balances increased by $131 billion, notably the largest cause of household debt. Mortgage originations increased at a modest pace with $458 billion of debt added, while HELOC balances grew by $9 billion to $411 billion.
Non-housing debt rose by $45 billion, with credit card debt rising $27 billion to $1.21 trillion, up 5.87% YoY. Auto loans rose by $13 billion to $1.66 trillion. Student loans are now due for repayment, with total outstanding payments rising by $7 billion to an unsustainable $1.64 trillion.
Adults aged 40 to 49 hold $4.81 trillion of the total outstanding debt and experienced a $50 billion debt increase in the last quarter. Younger Americans between 18 and 29, naturally, have yet to accumulate much interest on their debt and owe $1.1 trillion as a collective.
Delinquency rates rose during Q2 as 4.4% of all outstanding debt is in some stage of delinquency. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, household debt is up by 30%. American households are experiencing a pattern of financial stress that has not meaningfully waned since the pandemic. The government has destroyed the purchasing power of the USD through endless deficits and inflationary policies. The US is not heading toward a recession; rather, we are in a period of stagflation with inflation outpacing GDP growth primarily due to rising costs and wars globally.
I said it once, and I will say it again: Our computer is demonstrating that volatility in unemployment will rise from 2026, peaking first in 2028 with a Panic Cycle in 2029. This also confirms our War Cycles for 2026. What we MUST come to grips with is that there is far more to understanding the economy from a single statistic perspective.
Posted originally on Aug 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Countless men and women are dead. Cities have been destroyed. Other nations want to “help” by sending weapons, but Ukrainians are eager to end the war. A Gallup poll from July 1-14 found that only 24% of Ukrainians would fight until victory.
Back in 2022, 73% of people favored fighting until victory, but now the true cost has been revealed, and there is no victory in war. As of July 2025, 69% of Ukrainians support ending the war immediately through negotiations with Russia. In contrast, only 22% of the nation felt that peace talks were warranted in 2022.
Ukrainians notably shifted their view toward the US, their former top ally, once Donald Trump took office, with 73% expressing disapproval. This marks a record high and stands in stark comparison to 2022, when 66% approved of Biden’s unwavering support for the war.
The Kyiv Post reported that only 48% of Ukrainians support President Zelensky, although this figure is optimistic. Zelensky’s attempt to eliminate the agencies that protect the public from government corruption damaged his image.
“When analyzing the dynamics of trust in the context of the events surrounding Law No. 12414, it is important to note that we already observed a downward trend in early June. Therefore, not all of the seven-percentage point drop in trust can be attributed to the adoption of the law. However, this event undoubtedly had an impact, as some respondents specifically cited the vote as the reason for their distrust of the President,” according to the survey’s commentary. The Gallup poll found that 35% of respondents do not trust Zelensky, a 5% increase from before his failed executive order.
The West speaks of protecting Ukraine by increasing military aid and multiplying its own military arsenals. But the people do not want war. The Brits, the Germans, the Ukrainians–every single indicator shows that the people do NOT want to play the neocons’ war games. A survey is the only feigned consideration that the people have, as they are not permitted to vote on war. The Ukrainians were not even able to vote on their leadership, as Zelensky has installed himself as the permanent president until “victory” is achieved. Assuming permanent leadership under the premise of war will become a familiar concept in the coming years. The Ukrainian people have been living in fear for three years, and soon, all of Europe will feel the same repercussions of wartime hardships.
Posted originally on Aug 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
President Donald Trump has threatened Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with a “major lawsuit.” Could the sitting president sue the head of the central bank that acts independently of the Fed? It depends on the context as there are two issues—interest rates and the Federal Reserve headquarters operation.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the voting branch of the Federal Reserve, is protected by sovereign-immunity. The only exception would be a congressional waiver which simply would never happen. The plaintiff would need to present clear statutory cause of action and a waiver of immunity. Coercing the independent branch of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is not cause for legal action and would be dismissed immediately.
As for the new Federal Reserve headquarters, Trump could attempt to file an injunction claim against mismanagement or fraud, and would once again need a clear cause of action and a waiver of sovereign immunity.
The Federal Reserve operates on a self-funding mechanism, allegedly, using revenue it generates from interest on government securities and other services such as payment processing. Yet, that interest is generated from public funds. However, the Federal Reserve does not need approval from Congress to finance internal costs as it manages to bypass the federal budget. Powell has documented justification for the rising cost of the project, and there is no evidence of fraud or mismanagement. Congress would never consent to a waiver of sovereign immunity. The legal system would immediately overturn the claim as there is no actionable legal violation, especially against Powell personally.
The plaintiff, Trump, could attempt to pursue a private civil case against Powell, but again, that would also be immediately dismissed as the Fed chair has not attacked Trump, defrauded the government, or manipulated rates for political reasons. The prospect of suing the chairman of the central bank is absolutely absurd and a clear overreach of federal power. The Federal Reserve MUST have the ability to act independently of political pressure.
Now, the Supreme Court once ruled that the branches of the fed are “creatures of the Federal Reserve Act,” and fall under federal jurisdiction. The Supreme Court’s Cooper v. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (1984) regarded discrimination claims against a regional branch under Title VII and 42 U.S.C. § 1981. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) accused the bank of violating the Civil Rights Act.
The legal reasoning behind the Supreme Court’s decision in Cooper v. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond centered on the principle of res judicata (claim preclusion) and how it applies to class action lawsuits, which is different than Trump v. Powell. The Court examined whether the judgment in the prior class action suit, which found no widespread discrimination, barred individual class members who had opted out from pursuing their own separate discrimination claims. the Supreme Court ultimately ruled that the employees had the right to bring their individual claims against the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, permitting individual employees to proceed with individual lawsuits. Again, this is a separate matter that was not a direct lawsuit against the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions.
The majority of cases filed against the Fed involved employment issues. Vannoy v. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in 2016 accused the same branch of violating the Family Medical Leave Act (FMLA) and discrimination under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). The central bank granted Vannoy medical leave, but he claimed he was not properly notified of his FMLA rights and returned to work early to avoid losing his job, which actually led to his termination. The case went to a higher court and ultimately allowed Vannoy to file his claim of FMLA interference. Again, these cases are based on employment at the Fed rather than policy or against an individual member of the central bank.
There have been lawsuits over policy, such as cases against the Fed’s stress tests in 2024, and challenges to emergency lending programs during financial crises. It is rare for the court to rule against the Fed, but it has happened. In 2011, the Fed was sued for the “swipe fees” regulation (Regulation II) that capped the fees banks could charge merchants. The court ruled that the Fed did not have the authority to issue a uniform cap when Congress required issuer and transaction-specific regulations.
The challenger must show clear illegal overreach and a blatant disregard for administrative procedures. Jerome Powell has not violated the law by maintaining interest rates or overseeing the creation of the Fed headquarters. Trump’s threats hold no weight as no court would take his claims seriously.
Posted originally on Aug 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
2026
The ONLY way to resolve this war with Russia is to REMOVE Zelensky. He should be arrested when he sets foot in the USA. He has been wiring out $50 million per month for him and his cronies to secret accounts, I am told, in the UAE. The Ukrainian people should be allowed to vote on the fate of their own country. Ukraine should have been split along ethnic lines as was the case with Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. This has been a war that our NEOCONS instigated, and they do not care about the Ukrainian people, only about killing Russians.
Lindsey Graham even came out and stated that very bluntly: the best money he ever manipulated the American press into supporting and Congress into waging another endless war. They will be trying their best to get Zelensky into that Alaska meeting to prevent peace, just as Boris Johnson flew to Kiev and instructed him not to sign any mineral deal in Kiev and demand he do so to the White House to embarrass Trump into continuing the funding for this endless war.
Our Western Media has been bought and paid for by the Neocon/Nazi Movement. Any journalist who starts calling this Putin’s War, and how he is a dictator when neither Ursula has ever run for any election, yet is the head of the EU. Zelensky has suspended all elections during war, as no leader ever did in the US or UK during World Wars I or II. Any journalist who makes those assertions is indoctrinated by the Neocons and/or is outright paid bribes to create war as they did to start the Spanish-American War.
I have explained that our Neocons deliberately orchestrated this war. How can three people, all claiming that Russia persecuted their families, end up in the same Biden Administration? This was no coincidence. It was Garland who, I believe, was covertly behind all the criminal cases against Trump to try to prevent him from running for President. A Trump victory, they saw as a threat to the ultimate conquest of Russia.
Here is the godfather of American Neocons – John McCain. I never encountered someone I believe was so revolting. What he said there was a lie. This was a revolution to start a war, not promote peace. These people have ZERO regard for human life. It is only about their personal hatred. I believe the computer is always right because wars come only when there is economic stress. When everyone is fat and happy, you do not find war.
Here, this war kicked off back in 2014, and the interim government that our Neocons installed followed their orders and launched the civil war against the Russian population that lived in Crimea and the Donbas. Russians had their language made illegal, and this was all staged to create World War III and the conquest of Russia. They labeled everyone in the Donbas TERRORISTS because they wanted to separate from the Ukrainians who hate them and had been Nazis protected by the CIA only because they were also engaging in ethnic cleansing of Russians with Jews, Poles, and anyone else who did not have Ukrainian blood.
When Poroshenko was elected, he declared Russian a banned language, waged an all-out war on the people of the Donbas into a war zone by bombing ethnic Russians to dust, and cut off water and electricity to the people of Crimea.
The USA must declare it will NO LONGER be a part of the Neocon Retirement Home – NATO, which is a terrorist organization dominated by the Neocons and hell-bent on creating WWIII with Russia. They wanted to open an office in Japan to ensure that they generate war against China as well. China is NOT stupid. They know that if Russia fell to NATO, they would be next.
Neoconservatives push for NATO expansion (e.g., advocating for Ukraine’s membership) and support arming proxy forces (like in Syria or Ukraine) to roll back Russian influence. They view this as a means to solidify U.S. global hegemony. They have promoted NATO expansion to Asia and have wanted to open NATO headquarters in Japan.
China will support Russia, and Europe will burn. To prevent this, the US must take action against Zelensky and demand that Ukraine have a free and public election and that the Ukrainian people should be allowed to vote, not Zelensky, who takes his orders from MI6 and NATO. The Ukrainian people have a right to decide their fate, and all the polls from reliable sources inside Ukraine say they want peace. They are tired of being the pawns on this chessboard of NATO.
Zelensky, I believe, is a war criminal and should be dragged out of there in chains and put on trial. Further, I believe he was a Neo-Nazi who pretended to be Christian and had his children baptized. He joked about confiscating assets from the people the Neo-Nazis hate – Jews and Russians.
Here is Zelensky calling for Americans to be sent to kill Russians.
I have said many times that I had two employees in Ukraine. One lived in Kiev and the other in Donetsk. They hated each other and would never speak to each other. There is no reasoning with them. Facts and history mean absolutely nothing.
The hatred in the Balkans is legendary. The former Chancellor of Germany, Bismarck, predicted World War I would start in the Balkans back in 1888. That was the Serb who assassinated the Archduke of Austria.
Ukrainians have staged many false flags to try to get the West to attack Russia. The Bucha was a false flag where they killed their people and claimed the Russians did it. They shot a missile into Poland and said it was Russia to get NATO to invoke Article 5. The serial numbers were from an old Russian missile fired by Ukraine and were no longer in use by Russia.
Let’s use the shooting down of a passenger aircraft by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine as a ploy to start a war. If this is the case, then it is entirely possible that (1) this was a deliberate act by the West to provoke war with Russia, (2) was a mistake and then transformed into justification to wage war, (2) pro-Russian forces made a mistake and shot down the wrong plane, or (4) pro-Russian forces intended to shoot down a passenger plane.
Before there was any evidence or investigation, Obama came out and accused the pro-Russian forces. But the wreckage ofMalaysian Airlines MH 17 is curious. It shows bullet holes not a missile.
It is known that there were two Ukrainian jets in the area. The next curiosity is that the air traffic controller who was tracking the incident has disappeared. The bullet holes appear to be in the cockpit. That would make sense if you were deliberately trying to ensure no distress calls or hero tactics.
The West’s so-called investigation was rigged and directed by the Neocons to blame pro-Russians, not Ukrainians, even though they reversed the motive. If pro-Russian forces shot MH17 down, then the West would be against Russia. The motive was for Ukraine to create the war to outrage the West into attacking Russia.
The NY Times exposed how the Ukrainian Nazis were exterminating Jews. Here they photographed shooting a Jewish family in Miropol, Ukraine, in 1941. They did not shoot the small children. That would be a waste of a bullet. They threw the children into the pits and buried them alive with their dead mother. These are the people the EU, NATO, Neocons, and Zelensky, who now claims he is Jewish, are defending. We have chosen the wrong side and are now supporting the very acts of Adolf Hitler.
Reports from mercenaries who believe the propaganda that Russia was the evil wearing the black hat and Ukraine was the one with the white hat, volunteered to help. Many have returned horrified at the war crimes being carried out by Ukrainians.
Many Ukrainians are still Neo-Nazis and hate Russians. They still march with images of the ethnic cleanser Bandara who had Polish, Russians, and Jewish pregnant women cut open, removed their babies, and sewn in like cats. This has all been documented, and they were so horrible, they even shocked the German Nazis.
If you did your research, the extent of the cruelty of the Ukrainian Nazis even shocked the German Nazis. They would cut out a baby of a pregnant woman, and so in a live cat. They killed countless people from Poland and the Russians, as well as Jews.
They do not teach what the Ukrainian Nazis did in Ukraine because it was too horrible. One report stated:
“Some Ukrainian educators believe the Holocaust is not an appropriate topic for teaching because in a Holocaust course a professor would need to let Ukrainian students know that some Jews were betrayed to the Nazis by Ukrainian neighbors. In addition, the OUN and UPA took part in the annihilation of Jews in western Ukraine, and this knowledge can shock young Ukrainians. ” id/pg 205
The Ukrainians were unprecedented in their war crimes during WWII and the sheer outright cruelty one would expect only exists in some B-Rated horror movies. This included:
Running children through with stakes
Cutting a person’s throat and pulling their tongue out through the hole
Sawing a person’s torso in half with a carpenter’s saw
Cutting open the belly of a woman in an advanced stage of pregnancy, removing the fetus, and replacing it with a live cat, before sewing up her abdomen.
Cutting open a pregnant women’s abdomen and pouring in broken glass
Nailing a small child to a door.
I have videos that are too horrible to show of Ukrainians torturing Russian soldiers today, nailing them to a cross, and then setting them on fire. Numerous foreign soldiers are returning who are totally disgusted by what they have witnessed in Ukraine. One reported that they simply shot all the Russian soldiers they captured. Nobody will tell the truth because as long as they hate Russia, then Russia’s enemy is the West’s friend. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis have been the most ruthless people I have ever encountered in history. Add to that, Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, even declared by the IMF. They may be the most corrupt in the world.
You should watch the film Ukraine on Fire by Oliver Stone before you make assumptions. People are clueless as to the real story of Ukraine. They too joined the German Nazis and also engaged in the genocide of Poles, Jews, and Russians.
The media loves to increase revenues with readership. CNN’s coverage of the Gulf War marked a significant evolution in wartime journalism, characterized by real-time reporting and a unique perspective from within Baghdad. Their readership soared. War was transformed into an online real-time video game. They love war and confrontation. They lament how Hearst & Pulitzer made their fortunes on creating the Spanish-American War. They need to create WWIII to survive, just as the EU needs war to divert attention from the economic collapse by 2030.
The NEOCONS have tried to undermine Trump with the diversion to Epstein. Google searches for Epstein are down 89% from just 3 weeks ago. Trump’s approval rating is holding steady & much higher than it was in any other at this point in his presidency. Less than 1% say it’s the nation’s top issue. This is good, so perhaps the NEOCON diversion tactic is slowing using Epstein.
Posted originally on Aug 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The consumer price index (CPI) remained relatively steady at 2.7% in July on an annual basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report, beating analysts’ expectations.
There was a notable decline in energy on a monthly basis, declining by 2.2%. Utility gas services fell by 13.8%, while electricity declined by 5.5%. Food costs fell by 0.1% in July. Two of the six major food group indexes decreased, and one remained stagnant. Dairy prices rose 0.7%, with milk rising 1.9%. Meat, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.2%, primarily due to the 1.5% increase in the cost of beef. Egg prices fell 3.9%.
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% to 3.1% and marked the highest figure since February. Core goods rose 1.2% on an annual basis, marking the fastest pace of growth in over two years.
“It’s been a very dynamic time for these trade negotiations … but we’re still, you know, a ways away from seeing where things settle down,” Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, said last month. Most analysts are blaming Trump’s tariffs for the increase in goods, failing to see that the trend was already in motion.
July’s CPI report is yet another example of how government statistics mask the underlying trend. Yes, they will celebrate the 2.7% headline number as if inflation is under control, but the real story is in core inflation, which just hit a five-month high at 3.1%. That’s the number to watch, because it excludes the volatile energy component that has been conveniently falling, masking the real cost pressures in the system.
Powell’s comment that we’re “a ways away from seeing where things settle down” is an admission that they have no control over the underlying causes.
Posted originally on Aug 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The computer warned that we would experience a rise in civil unrest in 2025, with conditions only worsening in the years to come. Trump actively militarized the capital and has plans to dismantle ongoing civil unrest with a newly established Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force.
The Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force, as indicated by internal Pentagon documents, would be composed of hundreds of National Guard troops who would have the ability to respond to calls of civil unrest in under an hour. The 600-strong force will be split into two groups of 300, all of whom will be expected to be on standby at all hours in case the people of America begin to rebel. The first 100 troops would be deployed within an hour, the second and third waves would be sent within a two to 12-hour period, depending on the severity of the situation.
Arizona and Alabama will house the newly created force at pre-established military bases. In the event of civil unrest, armed troops will be transported via commercial airliners immediately. The Pentagon subtly announced the creation of this task force one day after the president deployed troops to Washington, D.C., but the documents bear time stamps from earlier in the month.
The Department of Defense will budget for the task force in fiscal year 2027—right on target ahead of 2028. The final cost has not been calculated, but the Pentagon believes it will span into the hundreds of millions.
One individual in the document cited cost concerns. “The support (hotels, meals, etc.) required will fall onto the general economy in large and thriving cities of the United States,” this official argued. Moreover, bypassing military aircraft would allow for deploying personnel to travel “in a more subdued status” that might avoid adding to tensions in their “destination city.” The concept of utilizing commercial airliners is to cut down costs.
Budgeting is never a true consideration of government; the genuine concern is public response. Reduced availability for other missions, training disruptions, strain on personnel, and equipment were also listed as areas of concern. Those protecting the establishment must maintain loyalty to the establishment, and it may be difficult to entice new recruits to join voluntarily.
The National Guard is always prepared to deploy in their independent states, yet this task force will operate at the federal level. Title 32 provides the legal framework for deploying the Army and Air National Guard, permitting state governors to issue commands. Title 10 provides the president with the power to direct active-duty orders for national missions. Guard members can be called to serve under the federal armed forces under Title 10 temporarily and is intended to federalize National Guard units, transferring control from the state to Washington.
Title 10 was used for this purpose during 9/11 and every American war since World War I. America is not currently at war, and there is no significant conflict occurring domestically, leading many to question why Washington is allotting hundreds of millions to a project to protect the government against the people.
The people have lost all confidence in government. The people no longer trust the government to handle the cost of living, nor do they trust the data issues on inflation, unemployment, or GDP growth. Americans see their tax dollars spent overseas on issues that do not benefit them in any way, their economic concerns have not been addressed, and they are unable to vote on how public funds are spent—let alone how the US responds to foreign conflicts.
Confidence will continue to erode into 2027, and by 2028, when this task force should be operational, the computer indicates that the US will see a major turning point, which also correlates with the next election. The situation is so dire that the United States may be unable to hold a true election in 2028, and public outrage is guaranteed.
The space race is no longer prioritizing exploration but militarization and energy. The second space race will see the United States come up against Russia and China to place nuclear reactors on the surface of the moon.
US Transportation Secretary and interim NASA Administrator Sean Duff declared that installing a nuclear reactor on the moon is the agency’s top priority. The reactor will generate a minimum of 100 kilowatts of electricity to support lunar missions and infrastructure, and NASA has a firm deadline—2029.
Duffy also noted that the nation that reaches the moon first will have the ability to implement “keep-out zones” around their reactors. The US has a strong sense of urgency as China and Russia have a joint plan to create an automated nuclear power station on the moon by 2035.
Russia and China have been plotting to implement the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) since 2021, during the reconnaissance phase of the mission, where China’s Chang’e series and Russia’s Luna missions sought appropriate sites for construction. The construction phase will begin in 2026 and last until 2035. Beginning next year, China and Russia plan to begin assembling a command center and sample return missions before assembling the core facility centers for energy, research, and communications.
The south pole of the moon has consistent sunlight needed for power. It is also believed that water ice may be present in the permanently shadowed craters. Nuclear power is crucial, as solar panels and/or batteries alone will not be able to supply a continuous source of energy due to the moon’s long nights.
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons or military bases on the surface of the moon. No nation has declared that it wants to militarize the moon, and we are to believe their innovations are for peaceful purposes only. The reactors do have the potential for dual-use and will give the commander a massive technological advantage.
Who will reach the moon first? The US and Russia are spending on endless warfare, and China will soon be brought into the battle. Naturally there is a high price to pay for such technology. The US is considered the global leader in space capabilities and plans to launch humans to the Moon by 2028 under the Artemis project. China’s technology is rapidly advancing, and its partnership with Russia will make for a true opponent. Whoever achieves lunar dominance first will become a leader in AI, nuclear powers, resource utilization, and communication technologies—the ultimate global power of the 21st century.
Oh, and it is of note that there may be an abundance of unexplored rare minerals on the Moon as well.
originally on Posted Aug 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Trump’s decision to send the National Guard into Washington, D.C., will be defended as a matter of national security. History teaches us this is not about protecting the people at all. The National Guard was deployed to protect the political class from the people.
The United States is now following the same path we have seen throughout history. In ancient Rome, once the Praetorian Guard was stationed in the city to guard the emperor, it became the power behind the throne. Their loyalty was to themselves and the politicians in control at the moment. The guard was not sent to protect the Republic, and certainly not the people. By the time Commodus was in power, the Guard was deciding who would rule, and the Senate’s role was ceremonial at best.
The same predicament happened in America’s short history. There was genuine fear in late 1860 and early 1861 that secessionist militias or Confederate sympathizers might attack Washington, capture federal buildings, or even seize Lincoln before his inauguration. At the start of 1861, Federal troops were quietly moved into the city. Army units from various forts were sent to guard the Capitol building, the White House, and key bridges into the city. Lincoln was inaugurated in March of 1861, but the new administration took power under the protection of a heavily militarized capital. Various Southern states began declaring secession following the election of November 1860, as they refused to accept Lincoln as their leader. The Battle of Fort Sumter that April took place a month after Lincoln’s inauguration, which acted as the catalyst to the Civil War.
We have reached a point where neither side of the political aisle sees the other as a legitimate rival. They see their opponents as an existential threat. That goes beyond the politicians themselves and extends to their supporters. Governors are refusing to comply with the Trump Administration and tensions have been boiling since Trump won re-election.
The Economic Confidence Model has been warning about this very period. We are in the decline wave, moving toward the next major turning point in 2028.05 before 2032 when we will see the crash and burn. Between now and then, you will see authoritarian measures increase. The plan to “temporarily” deploy troops to the nation’s capital will morph into permanent security zones and checkpoints. This is precisely how liberty erodes, not with a single decree, but with a steady normalization of emergency powers.
Historically, militarizing a capital is interpreted by foreign capital as a sign of internal instability. The US government fears its citizens, and the leaders believe they need added layers of protection. Capital has little room to go elsewhere at this time. In the short term, the US may still attract capital fleeing the chaos in Europe. Still, over the longer term, capital will begin looking for safer harbors in tangible assets and other regions less prone to political meltdown.
Interestingly, the move comes before the model’s target date of August 18 and Trump’s decision to meet Vladimir Putin in Alaska. People are still outraged over the Epstein list that Trump failed to release. They are enraged that Congress, on both sides of the aisle, went to visit Israel during recess. America’s neutrality in the Ukraine-Russian conflict is at risk, and powerful people on both sides are carefully watching Trump’s next move.
The homeless crisis is a false flag and a lackluster excuse. The data shows that homelessness in Washington, D.C., decreased by 9% YoY. Violent crimes have declined 26% over the same period. Sure, homelessness and crime have been rampant across D.C. and all American cities, but why is it suddenly of paramount concern to the point of deploying the National Guard? The troops have been called in to protect the political elite in power ahead of what’s to come.
Militarizing your own capital is a confession of weakness. And once you’ve crossed that Rubicon, there is no turning back without a political reset.
Posted originally on Aug 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Donald Trump deployed hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington. D.C., as the homeless epidemic in the US worsens. The news comes a week after Trump ordered federal officers from the U.S. Park Police, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), as well as divisions of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to patrol the capital to control crime.
“I’m going to make our Capital safer and more beautiful than it ever was before. The Homeless have to move out, IMMEDIATELY. We will give you places to stay, but FAR from the Capital. The Criminals, you don’t have to move out. We’re going to put you in jail where you belong. It’s all going to happen very fast, just like the Border. We went from millions pouring in, to ZERO in the last few months. This will be easier — Be prepared! There will be no ‘MR. NICE GUY.’ We want our Capital BACK. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump declared on Truth Social before his media announcement.
Are the unhoused dangerous? Is Trump acting to protect national security or acting as a dictator? The most recent census states that 771,700 people experience homelessness on any given night across the nation. In fact, 23 out of every 10,000 Americans are unhoused, with figures rising substantially in the past three years.
Data indicates that 70% of homeless people in the US have a criminal history. Although data is quite challenging to gather, most estimates believe 65% of homeless individuals used illegal drugs at some point, while one-third admit to active drug addiction. Around half (48%) suffer from mental health issues. Veterans compose around 13% of America’s homeless population, although this figure has significantly declined in the past decade. Unfortunately, homeless individuals may not have the capacity to seek out help, whether it’s due to mental health or drug-related issues.
Acquiring a job without an address or paperwork is one thing, but obtaining a job–let alone a well-paying job–with a criminal record in America is complex. People will take what employment they can find, and those jobs do not pay enough for the essentials.
Many studies cite a lack of affordable housing as one of the main reasons for homelessness. The National Low Income Housing Coalition found that 74% of extremely low-income renters pay more than half their income in rent. Yet, this has become a growing trend in America. The 2023 census found that over a quarter (26.4%) of Americans paid over half their income on rent, while 49.7% pay over 30% of their income on rent, and costs have only risen since the last census.
Charles Schwab conducted a study on the share of Americans who reported lacking enough savings to cover unexpected expenses or the loss of income for at least one month. The study concluded that an astounding 59% of Americans are one missed paycheck away from homelessness. That is a broad statement as it assumes everyone in the study had no support system or ability to access resources. The point of the matter is that there is a rising trend of financial insecurity in America as the personal debt crisis deepens. Homeless rates of this nature are indicative of a failing system rather than mere personal failures.
Yes, resources are available. The Veterans Affairs office has specific services dedicated to homeless veterans and spends $3.2 billion annually on these programs. HUD homeless assistance provides state, local, and nonprofit funding for temporary shelter. There is also a tenant-based rental assistance program through HUD, as the agency spends about $4.7 billion per year on grants. FEMA offers social services and shelter through the McKinney-Vento Act. The Treasury funds the Emergency Rental Assistance Program (ERA), spending billions on temporary housing payments for those unhoused or at risk of eviction. HHS funds the Projects for Assistance in Transition from Homelessness (PATH) program for the same demographic. Churches and non-profits also offer services. Federal funding for homeless programs averages around $13 to $15 billion annually, and yet, the population continues to grow. The current options for support are insufficient, and a stagnant economy with rising rates of unemployment only amplifies the crisis.
Between 2020 and 2025, the population of the United States is expected to grow by 3.8%, rising from roughly 331 million in 2020 to an estimated 343 to 347 million in 2025. At the current rate, America’s homeless population is expected to grow to 349 million by 2030. State and federal governments continue to throw money at the crisis without results.
At the time of this writing, it remains unclear where the National Guard plans to relocate the homeless living in the nation’s capital, or what public resources will be used for these efforts. This is a very serious matter that has never been adequately addressed. Relocation efforts are merely a band-aid rather than a solution to this growing epidemic sweeping our nation’s cities.
Of course, this move is likely not about the homeless population at all. We are witnessing the militarization of D.C. Historically, governments surround themselves with troops when they no longer trust the people. It’s the same cycle we’ve seen in ancient Rome when the Praetorian Guard began to function less as protectors of the empire and more as political enforcers. The symbolism is critical–once you militarize your own capital, you are crossing the Rubicon toward authoritarianism.
Posted originally on Aug 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
In a drastic reversal of Biden-era policies, the Trump Administration has declared that it will no longer fund the Ukrainian war–directly. However, America is still keen on profiting from the war through the vast military-industrial complex, as Vice President J.D. Vance alluded to in a recent interview. The war will NOT be profitable for America or anyone else in the end, but for now, they are seeking opportunities.
Trump-Vance campaigned on a promise to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They assured the American public that the war in Europe would not be America’s responsibility. Ending direct aid to Ukraine was merely a first step.
“What we said to the Europeans is simply, first of all, this is in your neck of the woods. This is in your back door,” Vance told reporters. “You guys have got to step up and take a bigger role in this thing. And if you care so much about this conflict, you should be willing to play a more direct and a more substantial way in funding this war yourself, I think the president and I certainly think that America, we’re done with the funding of the Ukraine war business.”
Trump had the same line of thinking ahead of the conflict when he urged NATO members to increase their spending during his first term. The new administration was firm on ending funding to Ukraine, but recently pivoted when Europe declared it would no longer purchase American-manufactured military equipment.
Trump began speaking harshly against Russia and alluded to a new willingness to support Ukraine. Rutte and all the neocons cheered, eagerly signing deals to arm Ukraine through America’s strong military manufacturing power. The ink on the contracts is still drying. Europe has already promised to provide Ukraine with American-manufactured weapons. Many of the neocons were reluctant to purchase from America as they did not believe Trump’s momentary rouse that he fully supported Zelensky. And now, the Trump-Vance team has adjusted their position to say that they will not fully support Ukraine or the neocons.
“Americans, I think, are sick of continuing to send their money, their tax dollars, to this particular conflict. But if the Europeans want to step up and actually buy the weapons from American producers, we’re OK with that. But we’re not going to fund it ourselves anymore,” Vance told reporters at Fox News.
The world is awaiting the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday. Trump suggested that a peace deal could include “some swapping of territories,” as that is the only strategy available to end the war. Merz, Macron, Starmer, Meloni, and others issued a joint statement in response, declaring that “the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine”. They insist that any deal must include security guarantees that let Ukraine defend its “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Zelensky also declared that “Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupier.”
Putin expressed his terms for peace long ago. The US will profit from the war while remaining neutral. Russia is expected to permit the US to export weapons to its enemies, entirely contradictory to US policy, as the US is quick to sanction anyone who even conducts non-military related trade with nations it dislikes. Everyone knows that Friday will not bring about true peace since Ukraine and Europe have become the aggressors whose only drive is a fight to the death.
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