Posted originally on Aug 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam left a six-hour cabinet meeting, whereby it was determined that the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah must be eliminated by the end of the year. Salam said it is the “state’s duty to monopolise the possession of weapons”, and disarm Hezbollah. Western influence has successfully penetrated Lebanon, and war is guaranteed to escalate.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called on Hezbollah to abandon its weapons to prevent war—a request that he knew would go unanswered. Such a request would have been unfathomable one year ago when Hezbollah was at the peak of its power. Israel recently accused Hezbollah of expanding its forces, with the US World Factbook estimating that the group had 50,000 active combatants. Yet, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that he has 100,000 men who are prepared to fight.
“The government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam committed a grave sin by taking a decision to strip Lebanon of its weapons to resist the Israeli enemy… This decision fully serves Israel’s interest,” the militant group said. “This decision undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty and gives Israel a free hand to tamper with its security, geography, politics and future existence. Therefore, we will treat this decision as if it does not exist.”
Lebanon is indebted to the West and must expel Hezbollah to secure funding. Lebanese Finance Minister Yassin Jaber announced earlier in the year that the World Bank prepared a “preliminary plan” worth $1 billion to assist in rebuilding efforts. Lebanon is attempting to form a new government, and the West is encroaching on the Middle Eastern nation to ensure it can insert political influence, if not dominance.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said that any funding would be “linked to specific steps and procedures with a specific time frame and objective.” The European Union has taken an interest as well, offering to disburse €500 million in aid as part of a deal signed last year that was contingent on reducing the number of migrants. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff also stated he believes the US may wish to broker a deal.
I reported that the US military is building a $1.2 billion mega compound in Awkwar, Lebanon. The location is a mere 10 miles from the center of Beirut and 60 miles away from the Israeli border. Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a ceasefire on November 27, 2024, but the group is still strong and continues to support Hamas. Lebanon is vulnerable to becoming part of a larger regional crisis, which could involve escalation around its southern border and deeper Turkish influence. Syria was a key supporter of Hezbollah but has been gutted with a new interim puppet government. Iran remains Hezbollah’s top supporter and has said it will not support any efforts to disarm the militant group, blaming the West for interfering in the Middle East once more. Notably, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year treaty back in January to bypass US sanctions. Could Lebanon become the new battlefield for the proxy war?
Posted originally on Aug 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been actively working to protect the health of the nation by reviewing what constitutes a “safe and effective” vaccine. He has banned a mercury preservative that held no health benefits. Now, Kennedy has ordered the discontinuation of 22 mRNA vaccines that post more risks than benefits.
These 22 contracts were worth $500 million—plain and simple, that is why they have not been banned or reviewed. HHS “supports safe and effective vaccines for every American who wants them,” Kennedy reiterated, as his opponents want the public to believe he is anti-vax when he is working to invest in better solutions that are actually beneficial to the people rather than big pharma.
“Most of these shots are for flu or COVID, but as the pandemic showed us, mRNA vaccines don’t perform well against viruses that affect the upper respiratory tract,” Kennedy explained, adding that these mRNA vaccinations “only codes for a small part of the viral proteins.”
“This dynamic drives a phenomenon called ‘antigenic shift,’ meaning that the vaccine paradoxically encourages new mutations and can actually prolong pandemics as the virus constantly mutates to escape the protective effects of the vaccine,” he explained.
Even Dr. Robert Malone, one of the original inventors of mRNA and DNA vaccines, attempted to warn the public against its use during COVID mandates but was silenced. He holds numerous patents for gene delivery, formulation, and vaccines. He admitted that he originally believed that health organizations such as the CDC and NIH were in place to help the people. He quickly realized that the health organizations are merely government pawns that have been used to suppress and manipulate the people into taking dangerous vaccines. His Wikipedia page (an untrustworthy site) was hacked, and his social media accounts were permanently banned. Many major news publications wrote scathing reviews of the doctor for spreading “misinformation,” despite him being one of the top experts in his field. “If they can remove my voice, my experience, my expertise – they win,” Malone stated.
Dr. Malone on attempts to silence him:
“The more I have expressed data-based concerns about what is happening with the vaccines, the US Federal and WHO responses, the more I have been censored, defamed, and subjected to various forms of character assassination by big tech and legacy media. I am not alone in being targeted. Mainstream media has attacked and censored me and other prominent physicians/scientists who do not recite the governmental narrative. This has been developed into a standard process and deployed worldwide as a technique for suppressing physician dissent – quite literally hunting physicians deemed guilty of thoughtcrimes (such as questioning vaccine safety and effectiveness) or of the “sin” of treating patients with lifesaving drugs in an outpatient setting.”
The COVID-19 virus spurred new variants over the course of the pandemic. The vaccine actually aided the viruses in mutating and discovering ways to bypass the available cures. Naturally, this would be a benefit for big pharma as they would need to manufacture new vaccinations for each variant and virus.
The “mRNA technology poses more risks than benefits for these respiratory viruses,” Kennedy confirmed, stating that every health agency has conducted studies that support this claim.
The HHS is focused on creating an effective vaccination strategy based on science rather than corporate profits and politicians beholden to pharmaceutical lobbyists. It is astounding that health has become a partisan issue, but vaccination status has become a personal trait over the course of the pandemic.
Posted originally on Aug 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Your model has projected a recession into 2028. ZeroHedge publishes “If everything is going to be just fine, why are thousands of stores closing all over the country? So far this year, the total amount of retail space that has been permanently closed has surpassed 120 million square feet. We have never seen anything like this before. Store closings spiked during the early days of the pandemic, but in 2025, stores are being permanently shuttered at an even faster pace.”
Do you agree with this? You have also written that in part this is a paradigm shift like Schumpet’s waves of Creative Destruction. Could you address this paradox?
Ronnie
ANSWER: Zero Hedge’s statement is a little misleading, but certainly not intentional. Yes, we have a recessionary trend globally into 2028, which has also been set in motion within the EU by the pounding of war drums. The EU is more likely to experience a DEPRESSION, whereas the USA will have a recessionary atmosphere with STAGFLATION, more like the 1970s, with inflation outpacing GDP growth primarily due to rising costs and wars globally.
Our computer is demonstrating that volatility in Unemployment will rise from 2026, peaking first in 2028 with a Panic Cycle in 2029. This also confirms our War Cycles for 2026. What we MUST come to grips with is that there is far more to understanding the economy from a single statistic perspective. However, we are also undergoing two significant factors that the classic economic models fail to incorporate, aside from the fact that 99% of the rhetoric and the economic models overlook the leverage in the banking system that creates money outside of the Federal Reserve through lending:
TWO SIGNIFICANT FACTORS OMITTED IN CLASSIC ECONOMIC MODELS
(1) a shift to independent contractors/freelancers thanks to COVID, and (2) a wave of Creative Destruction.
(1) INDEPENDENT CONTRACT:
I stumbled into this issue when the Florida Revenue Department wanted to audit our company. Florida has no income tax, so I was a bit befuddled. I discovered they were auditing to see if we had independent contractors or freelancers who would qualify as a full-time employee, and as such, we were not collecting unemployment taxes, etc. I have NEVER had such an audit – EVER!. So I began to investigate why I was being audited for such an issue. It turned out that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly contributed to the rise in independent contractors and freelancers.
1. Job Losses & Economic Uncertainty
Many traditional employees were laid off or furloughed during lockdowns, pushing them into gig work or freelancing to make ends meet. Companies downsized and relied more on contract workers to reduce long-term labor costs.
2. Remote Work & Digital Acceleration
The shift to remote work made location-independent freelance roles more viable. Platforms like Upwork, Fiverr, and TaskRabbit saw increased demand for freelance services (e.g., digital marketing, programming, consulting).
3. Business Adaptations
Small businesses and startups turned to freelancers for flexibility instead of hiring full-time staff. The “Great Resignation” led many workers to seek autonomy, choosing self-employment over traditional jobs.
4. Government & Policy Influences
Stimulus checks and unemployment benefits (e.g., PPP loans, CARES Act) provided temporary support, allowing some to transition into freelancing.
In some states, labor laws evolved to accommodate gig workers (e.g., California’s Prop 22 for ride-share drivers).
Upwork (2021) reported that 59% of freelancers started during or after COVID. MBO Partners (2021) found a 34% increase in independent contractors in the U.S. compared to pre-pandemic levels. OECD data showed a global rise in gig economy participation, especially in delivery (e.g., Uber Eats, DoorDash) and remote freelance roles.
Long-Term Impact:
While some workers returned to traditional jobs post-pandemic, many stayed independent due to flexibility, higher earnings potential, and hybrid work trends. The shift toward a more contract-based workforce is likely here to stay.
States with Higher Unemployment Than Pre-COVID (Feb 2020)
Nevada
Pre-COVID (Feb 2020): 3.7% Mid-2024: 5.2% (fluctuating due to slower tourism recovery) Reason: Heavy reliance on hospitality and leisure sectors.
California
Pre-COVID: 3.9% Mid-2024: 4.8% Reason: Tech layoffs, high cost of living, and slower rebound in entertainment/hospitality, illegal aliens, and the highest income tax in the nation.
California Income Tax – 13.3% (on income over $1,000,000)
New York
Pre-COVID: 3.7% Mid-2024: 4.5% Reason: Slow office sector recovery (NYC), reduced business travel, and Wall Street moving to Florida.
New York Income Tax – 10.9% (on income over $25,000,000)
Pre-COVID: 2.4% Mid-2024: 3.8% Reason: The economy is highly dependent on Tourism and high taxation
Hawaii Income Tax – 11.0% (on income over $200,000)
States with No Income Tax:
Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee (repealed investment income tax in 2021), Texas, Washington (but has a capital gains tax over $250,000), Wyoming
States That Have Recovered or Improved
Texas, Florida, Utah, Idaho, and South Carolina have unemployment rates at or below pre-pandemic levels due to strong job growth in tech, manufacturing, and migration trends.
Remote Work Trends: NYC and San Francisco, more than the Sun Belt states, have lost office work. This, in part, has also resulted in the commercial real estate crisis that was part of the objective of the COVID Scam to force people to work from home and stop commuting to save the planet.
Migration Shifts: States like Texas and Florida gained workers, while some Northeast/Midwest states lost population. This is the Great Migration from the BLUE to the RED states. I met people who moved to Florida because their children were becoming suicidal in the Blue States as they shut down sports, and many children thought their dreams in life were over.
Because of that strange audit that still costs you $25,000 in legal and accounting fees for something we did not owe, I began to dig. I found that the rise in independent contractors and freelancers was a side-effect of COVID, in addition to the Great Migration. States were looking for spare change. I would not have been surprised if they didn’t start searching cars for coins left in the ashtrays.
(2) Waves of Creative Destruction:
Simultaneously, the plot behind COVID was to create 15-minute cities and have people work from home, virtually ending commuting. What also took place was that people were locked down, and instead of shopping or even going out for dinner, they ordered from Amazon and took out from restaurants. COVID set in motion a new dynamic that the economic models are failing to comprehend. Unemployment can rise while commerce expands. Just look at the sale of Amazon. In the past 10 years, Amazon has expanded by 625%. I know a guy who had a camera shop. I closed after 30 years because he could no longer compete with online sales from Amazon. This is the story nationwide. But COVID was clever. The goal was to save the planet, and that has resulted in a cascade of small stores and even some chains closing stores. Now you have UBER.EATS, Door Dash, etc, to facilitate food being delivered to you within minutes. People closed offices and employees shifted to home, and commercial real estate is going into crisis liquidation. This is not all part of a normal recession – it is a Creative Destruction Wave where unemployment rises, but commerce can expand.
My firm became the highest-paid analyst ever, and we were an institutional advisor with some individuals who had a ton of money. Our reports used to go out by telex, and the cost could be up to $75 in telex fees per report, which would go out 3 times a day per currency. That was why I began opening offices around the world so we could reduce costs for clients by sending one set of reports to our London, Geneva, or Asian offices, and they would then redistribute it to the clients in that region. This would reduce costs from $200,000-$300,000 per client just in communication costs. We were Western Union’s biggest client.
In 1983, the Wall Street Journal wrote a piece that I was charging $2,000 an hour for phone advice. The journalist, after talking to our clients who agreed to participate in their review, told him that if I charged $10,000 an hour, they would pay it. He called me back and was stunned. I was advising on a billion-dollar transaction in 1983. $2,000 or $20,000 did not make much difference.
By the mid-to-late 1980s, fax machines were a standard office appliance, peaking in the 1990s before email and digital scanning began replacing them. We started sending reports out by FAX, and that reduced the communication costs dramatically. So personally, I have lived through the technology cycle of Creative Destruction and saw the price of transmitting a report from $75 to email, which is now basically free. That took the business away from Western Union, and has been a wave as Schumpeter envisioned.
When the East and West Coasts were connected by train in 1869, the Railroad era put out of business the wagon train industry. The United States expanded, and as train tracts were laid around the country, it was first the Railroad Boom which really came to an end with the Panic of 1907.
The Industrial Revolution expanded, and the Industrialists, led by the auto stocks, drove the 1929 bull market. The invention of the combustion engine led to tractors for farmers, disproving the theories of Malthus that humanity would starve as population increased. He never understood the cycles of technology, yet he influenced Gates and the Rockefellers. As farmers had tractors, production increased while employment declined.
The horse & buggy was replaced with automobiles. As they expanded, so did the suburbs come alive. Suddenly, people could live in places without trains. The town I grew up in flourished because we had a train station, which enabled people to buy land and move out of the cities. The town I grew up in expanded further from the train station with the automobile.
The first commercial airline was the St. Petersburg–Tampa Airboat Line, which began operations on January 1st, 1914. They flew a Benoist XIV, a small flying boat (seaplane). The distance was only 23 miles (37KM). It reduced the travel time from 2+ hours by boat or car to just 23 minutes.
Therefore, while the ECM has turned down, such forecasts that focus on ONLY one aspect or statistic are always wrong and/or lead to misinterpretations and confusion. Economists omitted from their models not only the creation of money by the banking sector through lending money, thereby leveraging the money supply. Those who believe shutting down the Fed and handing money creation to the Treasury will cure inflation do not know their monetary history.
Even a gold standard did not prevent inflation. The discovery of gold in the New World flooded Europe and resulted in massive inflation. during the 15th-16th centuries. The gold-silver ratio has always fluctuated because the discovery of silver relative to gold has never been confined simultaneously.
The vast gold discoveries in California, Australia, and Alaska created waves of inflation, as did wars. Just because gold is money does NOT eliminate inflation. All the nonsense about paper currency is FIAT, and that is the problem, it is just stupid sophistry. It has NEVER mattered what the money is from gold, cowrie shells in China, to sheep skins, Bronze, or cattle.
Assets rise in value regardless of what the money might be, and the purchasing power of money declines even when it is gold. This is the business cycle that DID NOT simply appear when paper money started in the USA.
The economic models are DOMESTIC because economists want a job to advise governments that they are all-powerful if they listen to them. I am sorry. As a trader, you lose your shirt, pants, your house, and your family if you trade based on economic theories. They are entirely useless. They never consider external factors.
(1) All banks create money with loans (I deposit $100 and they lend you $100, and both our accounts reflect a money supply of $100) (2) They have never been able to account for sudden increases in the money supply that have been caused by: (a) new gold or silver discovery (b) A war in another region diverted capital seeking shelter as European money flowed to the US for WWI & WWII (c) Capital concentration where foreign capital sees a profit in another economy driven by currency values (d) Capital flight from your economy based upon a sudden collapse in confidence, be it mismanagement or war (3) Economic technological evolution (trains, cars, airplanes, internet, etc…)
This is not even a complete list. I only met one academic who thought outside the box, and that was Milton Friedman. Milton came to listen to me at a trading convention in Chicago. I was explaining capital flows and currencies. When I was finished, Milton stepped forward to shake my hand and said I was doing what he had only dreamed about. We became friends, and then I understood what he was talking about. He had theories that a floating exchange rate system would impose checks and balances upon the fiscal policies of the government. He had written that theory down in 1953.
While I explained the Great Depression and the Sovereign Debt Defaults in 1931 in Europe, even Canada suspended debt payments, you can see the capital was taken back to its home countries, ending the Roaring ’20s. Everyone politically blamed Hoover and then tariffs, but nobody understood international capital flows.
I explained HOW the G5 intentionally lowered the value of the dollar by 40% to reduce the trade deficit. As idiots, they never understood that doing that means you were devaluing everything held by a foreigner. Japan owned up to 30% of the US National Debt, and they dumped it as the capital flows revealed.
It was World War I and World War II that made the US the financial capital of the world because all the gold fled to the USA during the wars. There was ABSOLUTELY no political decision made by any domestic politician that stood up and proposed making the US become the new capital for finance, taking that title from Britain.
There is absolutely no historical evidence that repeated wars have ever benefited any country. Britain got into World War I when it was not threatened, all based on treaties, as NATO is doing right now. Those treaties shifted the financial capital from London to New York, and World War II led to Britain’s full displacement of the British pound with the dollar. Even Canada rejected the British monetary system and shifted to the Canadian dollar.
War destroys the economy, as evidenced by Lydia, which invented coinage and fought Persia. Athens became the financial capital of the world after the Battle of Marathon, and they were compelled to debase their coinage and lost in the Peloponnesian War to Sparta.
The favorite phase in economics is: “Assuming all things remain equal.” Of course, that never happens.
We have the socialists always claiming the problem is wealth disparity. They hate people who have more than they do – that’s all. Both China and Russia tried Marxism’s wealth disparity solution – confiscate all private wealth to create material equality. The people learned that you had no right to be individual. When everyone was equal, and they needed a floor swept, you were next in line – here is your broom.
All things NEVER remain equal, and the wildcards always come from external sources. Just as no US politicians set out to make the dollar the reserve currency, that only took place at Bretton Woods after two World Wars.
My old PA used to have a man figure on her desk, which said – Shit Happens!
Larry Sanger, one of the founders of Wikipedia, states plainly that it is now all propaganda.
PS: That is why the government (Bankers & Neocons) work hard to try to keep people away from reading this site because they want to rule the world and expect to manipulate markets for their guaranteed trades and never want people to understand the truth. Just as they called the media and were directing them to cancel anyone who told the truth about COVID and were debanking people who told the truth, sold guns, or gold, the government has seized control of Wikipedia and ensured their fake news is always at the top of the list.
NEVER DONATE TO WIKIPEDIA – YOU ARE SUPPORTING THEIR PROJECTS TO UNDERMINE OUR FREEDOM
Posted originally on Aug 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Good evening Martin,
Could the war possibilities the models are producing reflect civil unrest in multiple nations at once rather than a world war? Could today’s Jacobins be about to meet Mr Guillotine?
Thanks …
FA in Arkansas
ANSWER: This WWIII appears to be far more chaotic than WWI or WWII. There is a rise in tensions globally that is unrelated, as it is not orchestrated by a single entity. It appears that wherever there has historically been tension or conflict, it is resurfacing more like a contagion. Throughout history, this has led to significant changes, such as Rome overthrowing its king in 509 BC, establishing a Republic, and Greece adopting a similar approach by overthrowing its tyrants, ultimately giving birth to Democracy.
We also have a separate model defined as Civil Unrest, for this also builds in intensity and becomes revolutions erupting from domestic conditions. Both models tend to correlate with the ECM insofar as when the economy turns downward, that is when you see the most significant rise in civil unrest. Note that the Panic Cycle here is 2029. There was WWI, which led to the uprisings like the Russian Revolution in 1917 that grew out of unrest and a lack of CONFIDENCE in the government.
Compare the Civil Unrest model to the International War. They both show 2026 as key periods. It will be this war that causes the overthrow of governments, just as took place in Russia with the overthrow of the Russian Tsar.
Posted originally on Aug 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
I am getting an increasing number of questions about how in the world our model forecasts war in advance and targets specific weeks like August 18th, 2025, a year in advance, and then Trump picks that Friday 15th for his peace conference with Putin in Alaska. You NEVER make such a forecast using a single model. There is a battery of models, and in those arrays, there are 72 models. That top line we call the aggregate because that is the sum of all turning models that align for that target – it is NEVER just one. The computer is monitoring the entire world. You can see all the reports that Socrates is writing every day. There are not enough analysts in the world to cover so many instruments and statistics. On December 3rd, 2013, I formally posted that the tensions would erupt in Ukraine.
Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch
Posted Dec 3, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
“We will have the Cycle of War ready shortly updating this development as this cycle turns next year as well and we can see the rising tensions are brewing everywhere. Ukraine may become the focal point with Russia smelling the blood of a weak Europe and United States. This is like the barbarians smelling the weakness of Rome and knew it was time to strike. Russia is all about restoring its national honor. The USA has weakened itself like Rome by fiscal mismanagement.”
This is a model specificly between Russia and the United States. It starts with the 1962 target of the Cuban Missile Crisis set in motion by Nikita Khrushchev, who was overthrown on October 14, 1964, (1964.786) during a Politburo coup orchestrated by his political opponents, including Leonid Brezhnev and Alexei Kosygin, because of his reckless desire to spread communism to the world (We Will Bury You). That was 1.978 years from the Cuban Missile Crisis (721.97 days, 103.13 weeks, or about 24 months later).
Here you can see this separate model targeted 2014.408, which was May 4th, 2014. This was the Odessa Genocide when Ukrainians killed Russians on the street and then burned them alive, and then ran into the Trade Union Building for shelter. This was what began the separation movement by the Russians in the Donbas because they were being hunted like animals, and the Western press had no problem with the resumption of Nazi Ethnic Cleansing because they were Russian. Neocons dominate the EU with personal hatred of Russians from generations before. They love to imprison people who just have words against migrants. Still, they have no problem advocating genocide of an entire ethnicity, following in the footsteps of Hitler all over again.
May 2: Deadly clashes in Odessa between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian groups resulted in over 40 deaths, mainly in a building fire.
May 11: Pro-Russian separatists held disputed independence referendums in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
May 25: Presidential elections were held in Ukraine, with Petro Poroshenko winning decisively. Separatist-controlled areas largely boycotted or disrupted voting.
Direct talks between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul, Türkiye, on May 15, 2025, precisely on the turning point, marking the first potential face-to-face negotiations since 2022. However, there is conflicting information about whether the meeting occurred as planned. My sources informed me that both Russian and Ukrainian delegations were present in Istanbul, with the Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky and the Ukrainian delegation headed by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The next major turning point is June 13th, 2026.
We are now starting to see a Panic Cycle forming at this next Major Target of June 2026. Keep in mind that this ECM is NOT included in the arrays. The more separate models we have, the better the correlation, and we can then rely on these forecasts with more confidence.
Russia also now occupies Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, in the Eastern region, which Putin may ask for. So far, Ukraine’s leadership has opposed ceding any territory to Russia. Zelenskyy wrote on X, “Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same brave approach from the Russian side. It is time we ended the war.”
The NY Post wrote: “European officials rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calls that Ukraine give up territories annexed during the war — instead demanding Saturday an immediate ceasefire from Moscow and NATO membership for Kyiv.” This merely confirms my sources that warn the EU, NATO, and Zelensky want war and they are conspiring to create a false flag to invoke Article % to embarrass Trump into sending troops to Ukraine to annihilate Russia completely. They want to conquer Russia entirely, and they seek to steal all its wealth so that the EU, desperate to survive, will become the next Roman Empire, subordinating the United States once again to a mere colony.
I do have contact with people close to Trump who I at least trust are NOT Neocons, which I cannot say for everyone surrounding him. Will they get Trump to listen? Probably not. The frustrating part is I tend to get called in when they F-up everything that I warned would take place, and then they expect me to be like Merlin the Sorcerer, wave my magic wand, and it’s all gone.
If the EU had honored the peace deal that they signed and allowed the Donbas to vote and separate as took place in Chechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, which both split along ethnic lines, this war would NEVER have taken place. The EU has conspired from day one to sacrifice the Ukrainian people on the NEOCON altar of hatred for Russians who are no longer communists, and their hated leader, Stalin, was not even a Russian. He was from Georgia.
It was all the cross-treaties that compelled nations to join World War I. NATO was established to result in the very same mistake that caused that war, and they are licking their lips, drooling over the thought of finally defeating and obliterating their enemy Russia, even though communism fell all by itself.
NATO’s intervention in Bosnia in 1995 was part of Operation Deliberate Force, a sustained air campaign conducted from August 30 to September 20, 1995, to pressure Bosnian Serb forces to comply with UN resolutions and end the siege of Sarajevo. NATO has routinely sought to bomb Serbia because it has been pro-Russian.
NATO entered Kosovo on June 12th, 1999 (1999.446), following the end of the Kosovo War. This marked the beginning of the Kosovo Force (KFOR), a NATO-led pretend international peacekeeping mission. NATO’s Air Campaign (March–June 1999) was conducted over a 78-day (1999.660) bombing campaign (Operation Allied Force) against Yugoslavia (then including Serbia and Montenegro) to stop the repression of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. They had no problem bombing Serbs because they were pro-Russia. This is why NATO never came to the rescue of the Russians in the Donbas when it was the Ukrainians carrying out the same genocide as Hitler, because the target was Russians—the first 51.6-year wave from the start of NATO ended on November 14th, 2000. Since there was grave concern that NATO was intervening in the Yugoslav War against pro-Russians when there were no NATO members, this forced the EU to establish a 60,000-strong rapid reaction force for peacekeeping and crisis management, marking a step toward greater European defense autonomy outside of NATO, so the US could not object.
NATO pushed to get Finland and Sweden, which had always been neutral, to surrender that neutrality and join NATO, thereby placing the Swedes under Article 5 to supply troops for NATO at the expense of their people and nation. NATO is using the precedent of Bosnia and Kosovo, where there was no NATO membership, to argue that they can now invade any country they desire using a humanitarian excuse.
ALL of my sources are saying that no matter what Trump agrees to with Putin, they will not honor it. Letting Russia retain the Donbas is what the dishonest EU signed as the Minsk Agreement and NEVER intended to allow peace at any time. The EU is crumbling from within. It will fragment and is being starkly divided as many see it as a UNDEMOCRATIC dictatorship where the Parliament is elected, but he has NO POWER even to make laws. It is a facade to pretend the people have a say when they do not.
The EU will split and may become a relic of history and a failed globalist-dictatorship experiment by 2030. When it was formed, the promise was no dictatorship without 100% consensus. But Hungary is fighting back against this pro-WWIII drive and for the migrants. The EU seeks to strip Hungary of its vote to ensure the EU will remain a dictatorship. They say you can vote your way into Socialism, but you must shoot your way out. In this case, the German people were not even allowed to vote to join the Euro, as some others. Kohl did not allow the people to vote in any referendum to join the Eurozone. Other countries that did not allow their people to vote in a referendum specifically on adopting the euro are:
Posted originally on Aug 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
A German INTERVIEW of Marcus Vetter on War
If you look back today: What has become of Angela Merkel’s statement “We can do this”? Has this vision been fulfilled or has it fractured?
Unfortunately, in my view, today this vision lies completely in ruins. It was the last stand of a truly humanistic approach, one that deeply divided Germany. Those who viewed the statement critically were often unfairly labeled as “right-wing” by those who applauded it. But a societal challenge of such magnitude can only be mastered together, because the truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle. Both sides had a point, and should have approached the motto “We can do this” with much more prudence and solidarity. Today, we are faced with a social landscape in shambles. A large part of society supports an unprecedented rearmament of Europe. Those who warn against it are often silenced. War rhetoric is now coming from parties that once had a pacifist orientation. The world is upside down and hardly recognizable anymore.
In your films you often talk about reconciliation, identity, and social change. What stories should be told today to rethink integration and social cohesion?
We should tell the same kinds of stories. Stories that show the cycle of violence can be broken. On an individual level, people are still open to such stories and can still be moved by them. At the same time, they are influenced by seemingly convincing arguments – for example, that a Russian war of aggression can only be decided on the battlefield and that one can only respond to it with strength. Other opinions are no longer truly allowed in the media. In my view, this is fundamentally wrong. War itself is the greatest war crime, as Ben Ferencz – once the youngest prosecutor in the Nuremberg Trials – put it. And he was right. In war, there is no morality, no humanity. Truth is the first casualty of any war. Through propaganda slogans we are conditioned to believe that strength is the only answer, because otherwise the enemy will overrun us.
When Hermann Göring was asked in Nuremberg how they had managed to unite all of Germany for a war of aggression, he said: “Of course, the people don’t want war… But… the people can always be driven to the bidding of the leaders. That’s easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and for endangering the country. It works the same in every country.”
It is very hard for me to endure the current developments. We are ready to take increasingly extreme positions. Some want to raze Gaza to the ground and root out evil entirely, others place all the blame solely on Israel and are just as extreme in their rhetoric. There are only a few left who are willing to build bridges.
That is why I have re-edited a trilogy of films I shot in Palestine and Israel between 2008 and 2012, and expanded it with a fourth film about the International Criminal Court. This last one – WAR AND JUSTICE – is a profoundly pacifist film. When people see it, they are often willing to rethink their stance on war.
THE HEART OF JENIN tells the story of Palestinian father Ismael Khatib from Jenin, whose son was killed by Israeli soldiers and who, despite his deep grief, decided to donate his son’s organs to Israeli children as a gesture of peace.
CINEMA JENIN – THE STORY OF A DREAM tells how hundreds of volunteers from all over the world came to Jenin to join Ismael Khatib – from The Heart of Jenin – in restoring an old cinema that had been closed during the First Intifada. Cinema Jenin opened in the summer of 2011 and was operated as a cinema for 5 years before being demolished in December 2016 and replaced by a shopping mall.
AFTER THE SILENCE tells the story of Israeli Yael Armanet, who lost her husband in a suicide bombing carried out by a Palestinian from Jenin. Inspired by Ismael Khatib’s gesture, she sets out to visit the family of the attacker in Jenin to find answers to what happened. The film was made possible and co-produced by the Palestinian cinema Cinema Jenin.
Posted originally on Aug 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, we understand your frustration, and that reveals that you are genuine, not fake. I think you need to be commended for appearing on Russia Today, explaining that Trump is not a neocon, and your dinner with him shows you his character. Explaining that on RT coming from you, who your own country treated without any restraint and against not just American law, but international law. I was informed that you even met with the International Criminal Court, and they wanted to take your case, but the United States is not a member. They had no jurisdiction to charge those involved in a violation of international law.
When you appear on Russian TV, you are highly regarded because it is well known that you are independent and are not swayed by propaganda. You have made a difference. You are more respected than any other analyst. Because you said Trump truly wants peace, we believed you. Your government and media try to ignore you because they know you are independent and correct. Please (пожалуйста) do not get frustrated. You have made a difference far beyond what you know, including your followers who are all around the world.
спасибо за смелость
anonymous
REPLY: Thank you. I am glad people listen outside the USA. I am so sorry that those in Moscow cannot attend our WEC in person. I have suggested that we hold them in Cancun, Mexico, so that everyone can attend. My clients have made a difference worldwide. We are all of the same mindset and fully understand that we are all in this together. There is no US vs Them based on borders, race, religion, or gender. In our own company, we have every race, religion, and gender. We all respect each other, and we all get along based on character. It can be accomplished if we make an effort to understand and listen to one another. I am so glad Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on the 15th, despite opposition by Zelensky, NATO, and the EU – (the Ides of August).
What I have discovered is for humanity. The more we can demonstrate the reliability of the forecasts, the greater the potential to reduce the amplitude of the worst events to come. For months, the computer has been projected for August and the week of the 18th. Trump’s choice of Friday, the 15th, demonstrates what I believe the model projects as the pressure point, and that is why people are compelled to act when the computer targets a specific date.
I believe we all have a purpose and a specific destiny. I feel I have been placed in so many situations around the world for a purpose. I have seen the world through everyone’s eyes. If I can pass that on, then I have fulfilled my destiny. What I have done, I have been compelled to do. I am fortunate that even what they did expanded my understanding of the system. It was part of my education. I named my computer Socrates, because he was considered the wisest man in Greece, according to the Oracle of Delphi. It was his Apology that was etched into my soul. If you do not fear death, you take all their power away from them.
Einstein has also greatly influenced me. He didn’t mean all moments are happening right now in a chaotic jumble. What he meant was that they all exist within the unchanging structure of spacetime. Our perception of sequence is local and frame-dependent. I see the cycles of the universe in my mind’s eye. In analysis, we are plagued by the linear analysis that sees only a sequence, never the cycle.
Posted originally on Aug 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The people do not wish to play the neocons’ war games. Germany has been discussing reintroducing mandatory military service since the war began—a war that was never Germany’s battle but always the obligation and responsibility of the German people. I reported in May that over half of Brits would not fight for their country in the event of an attack. A new survey by German broadcaster RND revealed that nearly 60% of Germans would refuse to go into battle.
Only 16% of respondents said they would “definitely fight,” and another 22% reported they “probably” would. This is precisely why Germany has been considering a mandatory conscription for all adults over the age of 18. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he is “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.”Since the West has effectively eliminated genders or the need for a family structure, they plan to draft both men and women. Anyone fit to fight will be sent off to die.
Pistorius has been urging Germany to amass 260,000 active-duty troops, whom he believes should begin training immediately. Germany has a goal of gathering an army of 203,000 troops at a minimum, but the current force is a bit over 180,000. The military also plans to increase its reserve forces from 60,000 to 200,000, citing the need for immediate mobilization if the conflict escalates. Mandatory conscription may be introduced in 2026, which would align with our models precisely.
German politicians speaking out against the war are being silenced. The government has been preparing the European public for the inevitable. Everyone currently living in Europe knows how intensely the media has been discussing Europe’s alleged duty to prevent Russian aggression. “Will you fight for Germany? None of us wants war, but we already have to prepare for it. How ready are we really?” German magazine Stern states on its March 2025 cover.
The people always lose in times of war. Those on the ground firing missiles at one another are on the same side—the people—while the neocons sit in their safe high towers, unaffected by the destruction they unleashed.
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