Exxon Announces Mass Layoffs


originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Exxon

Recent data from the Chicago Fed and ADP indicate new hires at a 16-year low. The ADP offered a bit of promising news for large corporations as they managed to expand by 33,000 positions last month. Yet, no corporation is immune to the increased cost of goods, excessive regulation, and taxation. Socrates has warned that unemployment will top 6% by 2026, and we are beginning to see the warning signs in Q4.

Exxon Mobil plans to slash 2,000 positions, representing 3% to 4% of the global workforce. “Our global office network was established decades ago under very different circumstances,” Exxon said in a statement to Barron’s. “To support the collaboration so critical to our success, we are aligning our global footprint with our operating model and bringing our teams together.”

Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods stated that the company is aiming to “redesign work processes and improve cost competitiveness.” “We are making tough decisions, some of which will result in friends and colleagues leaving the company,” Woods said back in 2020. The global economy never truly recovered from the pandemic. I discussed the ongoing issue with crude and the broader implications on the private blog.

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Numerous oil giants announced mass layoffs. Chevron drastically reduced its payroll by cutting over 15% of its workforce. Imperial Oil is slashing its staff by 20% over the next two years. Total Energies is looking for a way to save $7.5 billion over the next five years.

Oil shocks are typically geopolitical in nature. It is not inflationary or demand-driven. Oil is a global reserve commodity that responds to shifts in capital flows and confidence. Energy is leverage and power, which is why is closely aligns with the war cycle. Companies overall are hedging against expected volatility by cutting costs, but oil companies are especially prone to stress due to the current geopolitical atmosphere.

Taiwan Forced to Move Chip Production to the US to Maintain Protection


Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Semiconductor.Chip_

Taiwan will lose protection if it fails to move semiconductor chip manufacturing to the United States. The nation must determine which is more valuable—US  protection against Chinese threats or maintaining 95% of the world’s chip production.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) agreed to invest $100 billion in manufacturing plants in the US earlier in the year, but that has not been a sufficient deal for the current administration. Cornering 95% of the market, the US cannot risk losing its main semiconductor manufacturer in the event that China fulfills its promise to absorb Taiwan as a Chinese province.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick admitted it is a “herculean task” to move 95% of the world’s chip production 9,000 miles away. “The model is: if you can’t make your own chips, how can you defend yourself, right?” Lutnick argued. Only 2% of Taiwan’s chip manufacturing occurs on US soil.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said it could take up to two decades for supply chain independence, adding, “It’s not a really practical thing for a decade or two.” TSMC has emphasized that its most advanced processes will remain in Taiwan to preserve the “silicon shield”—its economic leverage against Chinese aggression. America will need to guarantee securities to Taiwan, otherwise, what good is it to move production? US facilities will begin to focus on mid-to-high-end nodes that should meet 30% to 50% of US consumer demand by 2030. However, Taiwain demands that the overall global supply remain on the island.

President Tsai Ing-wen is wanted by the Chinese government for defying the One China policy. He has been eager to form a strong alliance with the US as he knows China can only be kept at bay for so long. “In the face of authoritarian expansionism and the challenges of the post-pandemic era, Taiwan seeks to bolster cooperation with the United States in the semiconductor and other high-tech industries. This will help build more secure and more resilient supply chains. We look forward to jointly producing democracy chips to safeguard the interests of our democratic partners and create greater prosperity,” Taiwan’s president stated in 2024.

Trump told Taiwan that it must raise its own defense budget from 2.45% of GDP to around 10%. He has likened America to “an insurance company” for Taiwan and believes the nation should pay for protection.

A large semiconductor chip manufacturing just so happened to host a conference at the same venue in Orlando, Florida, where we held the World Economic Conference in 2024. An employee of mine spoke with one attendee who said shareholders were concerned that their manufacturing headquarters were located in Taiwan. I’m told the general consensus was that even in the event of China following through with its One China policy, the company believed that China would not want to lose such a lucrative business deal with the United States. Yet, what would happen if two nations were at war? Cutting off America’s supply of semiconductors would cripple the tech industry.

Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom, Intel, MediaTek, Qualcomm, and others, with North America purchase over 65% of Taiwanese chips. The US-China tensions and Taiwan’s fragile geopolitical position make “Made in Taiwan” a risky bet for Western countries despite the critical importance of its semiconductor manufacturing. Taiwan must decide if the risk of foreign invasion is surrendering half of its share of production.

The Cost of the US Govt Shutdown


Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Swamp

The US government shut down once again as our public servants refused to work in a partisan fashion. Over 2.1 million civilian federal employees will be affected, with 750,000 furloughed without pay. Naturally, Congress will still receive a paycheck and their lobbying checks. The duration of the shutdown is unknown, but estimates state the bickering could cost the US economy up to $2 billion per week.

Non-essential offices, websites, and services are unavailable. National parks and museums are closed to visitors. Passport processing will be delayed. The daily cost of compensating the furloughed workers is $400 million. Military members may face delayed pay, while contractors face layoffs.

Most concerning is the data blackout—the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be unable to release its September non-farm payroll report slated for October 4. Data regarding the consumer price index and producer price index will be delayed. Retail sales, housing starts, every piece of data compiled by the federal government will be delayed and amplify uncertainty. The key information the Federal Reserve and investors rely on will be unavailable, and if the shutdown carries on for more than two weeks, there will be a massive spike in volatility and a potential delay in rate cuts. The Fed will be forced to rely on private estimates like the ADP jobs report that are less reliable.

The Democrats insist on expanding COVID-era funding for Obamacare, and insist the GOP reverse the decision to cut the Medicaid budget. Neither side is willing to compromise. Leaders are begging Congress to simply stay in Washington until a decision is reached.

“There isn’t any substantive reason why there ought to be a government shutdown. This is something that has been done routinely, as I said, 13 different times when the Democrats had the majority. But we are not going to be held hostage for over $1 trillion in new spending on a continuing resolution,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said ahead of the vote.

The Medicaid cuts alone are expected to save the government $840 billion over the next decade. Cutting the premium tax credit extension could save $350 billion over the same period, and work and eligibility restrictions could save another $344 billion. Additional recessions and funding cuts to government agencies are expected to save up to $9 billion in 2025 alone.

Non-citizens without access to other coverage DO benefit from these extensions. US taxpayers have spent billions on providing health coverage to migrants. Those earning between 100% to 400% of the federal poverty level will also benefit, as will anyone earning 400% above the threshold if their premiums exceed 8.5%.

“It is unclear how long Democrats will maintain their untenable posture, making the duration of the shutdown difficult to predict,” Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought penned in a memo. “Regardless, employees should report to work for their next regularly scheduled tour of duty to undertake orderly shutdown activities.”

“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like,” President Trump warned.

Trump could possibly lay off more federal employees in non-essential roles, and a hiring freeze is already in place. The president has the authority to cut funding to programs favored by the Democrats such as social services and environmental programs. Sanctuary cities or jurisdictions could see funding withheld. The federal government will not spend on non-essentials during this shutdown, but that will only anger Democrats who refuse to budge.

Congress serves no purpose. They represent private lobbying interest groups and serve the invisible hand rather than the people of the United States. A private company would never shutter its office over a fiscal budget disagreement. Our public servants must reach a resolution immediately, and I see no reason why they deserve pay during a deadlock. These individuals are on taxpayer-funded vacation for the majority of the year and refuse to perform the minimal work they are expected to do. It seems they are unfit for the job. Fire everyone and start fresh.

Moroccan Youth Protests – Gen Z 212


Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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Anti-government protests always begin with the younger generations. Morocco is the latest nation to face a massive youth uprising with nearly a week of ongoing protests against reckless government spending. The government allocated $15.8 billion to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup or roughly 16% of GDP.

Unemployment is at 13%, with youth unemployment, per usual, notably higher than the national average. This is the seed of the anger that sprouted the uprising. Youth unemployment among those 15-24 is estimated to be 36.7%, while nearly half of young adults in urban areas cannot find employment. Unemployment among college graduates stands at around 19%. One-third, mostly women, are not in education, employment, or training (NEET). The youth are enraged at their current predicament and blame government corruption and mismanagement.

“Gen Z 212” is the name for these decentralized protests occurring throughout the nation. The youth demand reform, especially in healthcare services and education. “The right to health, education and a dignified life is not an empty slogan but a serious demand,” the organizers of the Gen Z 212 protest movement wrote in a statement published on Discord.

The government allocated $9.6 billion to upgrade the high-speed rail line that will feature new connections between major cities. An additional $1.3 billion was set aside to improve roads and highways in host cities. Hotels and lodging will see a $3.2 billion expansion for World Cup tourism. The stadium alone will cost $3 billion, with costs likely to rise. The youth believes this funding should be reallocated to the people.

Morocco’s economy seems to be growing at a steady pace, rising 5.5% in Q2. Inflation has fallen to 2% as well. The nation’s economic status does not matter to Gen Z, who make up around 25% of Morocco’s population. They cannot find work and have nothing to lose. Hundreds have been arrested, and the civil unrest is amplifying as the protests continue.

Canada Joins UK With Up to Life in Prison for Hate Speech


Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

In Canadian criminal law, “hate crimes” are not a single stand-alone offence, but rather ordinary criminal offences (like assault, mischief, or threats) that are motivated by bias, prejudice, or hatred.

Some are specific indictable offences in the Criminal Code:

  • Advocating genocide – s. 318:
    • It is an indictable offence to advocate or promote genocide against an identifiable group (based on race, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, etc.).
    • Punishable by up to life imprisonment.
  • Public incitement of hatred – s. 319(1):
    • Willfully promoting hatred against an identifiable group in a public place where it’s likely to cause a breach of the peace.
    • Can be prosecuted as an indictable offence (max 2 years imprisonment) or by summary conviction.
  • Willful promotion of hatred – s. 319(2):
    • Communicating statements (other than in private conversation) that willfully promote hatred against an identifiable group.
    • Indictable (max 2 years) or summary.
    • Requires Attorney General’s consent to prosecute.

Other ordinary crimes with hate motivation (like assault, uttering threats, mischief) can be charged as usual, but hate motivation is an aggravating factor in sentencing under s. 718.2(a)(i).


Keep in mind this is just SPEECH – you do not have to hurt anyone!


Shakespeare Killl Lawyers

Well, I guess Shakespeare is lucky not to be alive today.  His famous line may be life in prison in Canada.

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Europe Starting the Pre-War Controls


Posted originally on Oct 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

STATE OF TENSION

In Germany, warmongers are talking about declaring a “military tension case” using the false flags they have created with drones. This is the step before the State of Defense, which carries the most severe restrictions. This is a precursor to the total capital controls I have warned about. This will include the limits on freedom of speech, the press, assembly, and travel. COVID was just a trial run.

Of course. This is a complex and highly regulated area of German law, rooted in the country’s historical experiences. The restrictions allowed on population liberty and financial controls depend entirely on the specific legal state of emergency declared.

It’s crucial to understand that Germany, as a Rechtsstaat (a state based on law and justice), has strict constitutional safeguards. Any government action must have a specific legal basis in the Grundgesetz (Basic Law, Germany’s constitution).

The German constitution provides for several escalating states of crisis:

  1. State of Tension (Spannungsfall): A preliminary stage when a military conflict is imminent.
  2. State of Defence (Verteidigungsfall): A formal declaration that the country is under armed attack.
  3. State of Internal Emergency (Innerer Notstand): For dealing with grave threats to public safety and order within the country.

The most severe restrictions are only permissible under a State of Defence.

In Austria, the term “tension case” (more precisely: voltage state) in the military law 2001 (§ 2) is defined as a condition in which there is an immediate danger to the security of Austria or its allies, and preparation measures are required for defense. The “defense case” (defense state) occurs when an armed attack takes place or is imminent.

EU vs Russia

Week of October 22nd

We warned that this was the week that the computer was projecting for the shift. It is targeting, especially, the week of October 22nd, which could signal the start of serious restrictions ahead of war. NATO is also contemplating cutting off Russia’s access to the Baltics.

Putin has to realize now that any PEACE with Ukraine is a joke. Europe wants Russian blood, and they have been sacrificing Ukrainians using their ethnic hatred of Russians to reduce Russia as much as possible so that NATO can conquer Russia. Zelensky is the perfect stooge who will sacrifice Ukrainian lives for a pocket full of silver.

Canadian Govt Prepares to Disarm Civilians


Posted  originally on Oct 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

gun

There has never been a positive outcome when the government sets out to disarm the people. Authoritarian states are the inevitable result. Certain semi-automatic weapons were prohibited in March 2025, with a one-year amnesty period for lawful gun owners to surrender their rifles through a buyback program. The government claims the buyback program is completely voluntary “with the expectation they will comply,” according to Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree.

Anandasangaree does not believe the Canadian government is equipped to disarm citizens, as revealed in a leaked audio clip. “I just don’t think municipal police services have the resources to do this,” the minister says. The minister claims a gun lobbyist leaked the audio in which he was speaking in jest. On the audio, the minister admits that gun owners are clearly losing money with a C$400 flat rate compensation for each gun surrendered. The man asks if he would be considered a criminal for refusing to deactivate or surrender his guns. “If the police enforce it, yes,” the minister states.

Anandasangaree admits the program is flawed, but speaking with Mark Carney is a moot point. “We’ve had all these conversations. Like I’ve had for the last four months, it’s been like constant, constant discussions on this to see what’s next, right? And the conclusion is let’s finish this because we committed to it in the campaign,” he reveals, mentioning earlier in the call he is simply following orders.

“No, you’re going to turn me into a criminal Gary, because you know I’m not gonna turn mine in. I’m telling you right now. I refused it,” the associate rebuked, adding, “Well, no, but the police will come to my house at some point, because what’s registered. They know who I am, they know where I live, they know where they are, they’re locked up in my safe, I’m gonna refuse to hand ’em in. They’re gonna come in, rip open my safe, right? Take those firearms and put me in handcuffs.” Gary stated he would bail him out if that happened.

Disgraced former PM Justin Trudeau attempted to implement a buyback program on May 1, 2020, but did not go as far as revoking gun licenses and confiscating guns. The current program is capped at a budget of C$742 million. Money is not the concern here. Canadians have had the right to legally own arms for 243 years, but suddenly the government decided they no longer deserve the right.

Gun confiscation veiled as gun control. A voluntary program will soon become mandatory. Failure to comply will result in criminal charges. Law-abiding citizens are rarely the culprits behind gun crime. The criminals on the streets and in office will still have guns. Anandasangaree admitted that the government has yet to decide what they will do if the majority fail to comply, and after COVID, there’s valid reason to believe that most will cave.

Mamdani – The Death of New York City


Posted originally on Oct 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Zohran Mamdani will be the death of New York City and the beginning of the end of democracy in America. If someone with his policies were to run even a decade ago, the world would have laughed him off. The extremist views on the left have pushed the blind masses to vote for the most extreme candidate, even if they dislike or fail to understand their views.

Mamdani is an openly racist, anti-American socialist who wants to dismantle the once great city of New York. He believes that the state should tax people based on skin color. Imagine if someone said Asians or Blacks needed to pay a higher share of taxes? It is unfathomable how anyone could cast a vote for this madman.

Socialists feed on increased taxation to support the welfare state, which comprises their voter base. They need people who are utterly dependent on big government to gain and maintain control. Equality to a Socialist means that everyone is equal in poverty. Not only does he want to raise property taxes, but he stated that “wealthier and predominantly white neighborhoods” in New York City should disproportionately shoulder the majority of the tax burden.

He has angered the Jewish community by failing to condemn Hamas. No one was asking him to take a stance on the two-state solution. Reporters simply questioned if he would condemn a KNOWN terrorist organization, and he said no. He declined to sign Holocaust remembrance legislation and has been openly hostile toward Jews. Mamdani refuses to denounce Sharia law. Perhaps women in New York will need to adjust their fashion trends.

Around 8% of New York is of Italian descent. Mamdani posted a picture of himself giving the middle finger to a Christopher Columbus statue in Astoria. Mamdani’s campaign was silent when Italian organizations demanded an apology.

Reminiscent of the Soviet Union, Mamdani believes that the government should invade the private sector and determine the price of goods such as rent and groceries. Mamdani believes that corporate price gauging is to blame, particularly at the grocery store. Where have we seen this before and what were the results?

Let’s take a look at Venezuela. Hugo Chávez implemented price controls to combat inflation, but it backfired and caused the nation to experience one of the highest rates of inflation in the world. The government arbitrarily set prices without considering demand, supply, or the costs incurred by the private sector. Business was no longer profitable, and small mom-and-pop shops disappeared. Those that remained could barely operate and experienced severe shortages on basic goods like food. The people panic and began to hoard what they could as they did not know when the goods would be available again.

Mamdani is pro-crime. He believes shoplifting should be legal—yes, legal. Mamdani would like to create open-air drug markets in New York and create safe spaces for people to use illegal drugs. The NYPD is to be defunded. Zohran simply states all the WOKE keywords that the people on the left want to hear without understanding their true meaning.

Mamdani has NO experience. He is an academic who worked for his parents up until three years ago. His views are eye-catching and extreme, leading the youth to believe that he is leading a radical movement to stick it to the man. These young voters do not understand what will happen if these policies are implemented.

Unfortunately, our models indicate that NYC will decline sharply in 2026. I warned in 2021 that the city was heading into a crash mode. It is fascinating how the 309.6-year cycle, marked by the time when NYC was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1975, aligns precisely with the year NYC was founded in 1665. It is striking how closely New York has followed the ECM model, which does not bode well for what is to come.

Clinton Proves the Democrats Lack Core Values


Posted originally on Oct 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Hillary Clinton’s only consistent stance is that she belongs in a position of power. Her distaste for Christianity is on par with Marxist beliefs to discredit any power being higher than government. “The idea that you could turn the clock back and try to recreate a world that never was dominated by—you know, let’s say it—white men of a certain persuasion, a certain religion, a certain point of view, a certain ideology—it’s just doing such damage to what we should be aiming for,” Clinton said.

It in unknown what time period she is referencing. She has demonized women for holding values that conflict with her own, deeming them “handmaiden to the patriarchy.” Neocons who despise Trump like Liz Cheney are the “very few” conservatives she loosely respects.

The left believes migrants will be engineered into dependency, relying on government welfare and therefore voting for the party that promises perpetual handouts. This is why the politicians on the left are enraged over mass deportation efforts.

Project 2025 has been debunked, but repopulation theory is alive and well. Hillary admitted that immigrants here “legally and undocumented” produce “larger than normal—American standard—families.” Yet, she is on record stating that illegal immigrants certainly should not receive health care benefits at the expense of tax payers. All Democrats were once “moderates” who were swept away by Marxist globalism ideology.

“It’s all in there—the return to the nuclear family, the return to being a Christian nation, return to producing a lot of children, which is sort of odd since the people who produce a lot of children are immigrants,” Clinton declared.

The traditional nuclear family does not revere the government. Friedrich Engels, a pioneer of Marxism, argued against the nuclear family. He believed that the nuclear family perpetuated capitalism, private property ownership, and familial wealth, calling families a “unit of consumption.” Engels believed in communal living, polygamy or group marriage, and the removal of any private property. He argued that this was a feminist concept, as women in that time period were dependent on their husbands rather than the government.

Schumer, Pelosi, and all the dinosaurs holding onto power once spoke of strong border control. Securing America from foreign invaders was a basic concept. It only became controversial when the Democrats bought into globalist ideology and decided that repopulation was the way forward. The Democrats are willing to shut down the government to spite the Trump Administration for a cause they do not believe in.

These people lack core values. They spew what they believe the people want to hear ahead of elections but have no concrete standing. The party of peace has become the party of war. The party that champions the “middle class folk” is propped up by Democratic billionaires, often from foreign nations, who funnel money into NGOs that promote civil unrest and election manipulation. Saying one is a “Democrat” no longer holds weight as their ideology has no pronouns.

Britain vs Florida


Posted originally on Sep 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

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Living in Florida, I definitely see the difference compared to even New Jersey, where I have been given a parking ticket in a private parking lot because one car was over the white lines, so everyone had to follow suit by perhaps 2 feet, and a cop then tickets everyone. Completely illegal, but you pay the $25 fine because it’s cheaper than taking a whole day to argue in court.

I was driven down Gulf Blvd and there was literally nobody on the road, so I was doing 12 miles over the speed limit, not paying attention. A cop pulled me over, and because I had no speeding ticket, he said here, I don’t want to be the first to give you one. In New Jersey, you have to have your car inspected. When I moved to Florida and had my car registered there, I asked if I needed to have it re-inspected. They laughed and said, “Oh, we don’t do that stuff here.” I will never leave Florida.

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There is even a proposal now to eliminate property taxes to make housing more affordable. We have no income tax and a balanced budget. Additionally, we were not under lockdown due to COVID, so the only stores that went out of business were chains, not local companies. Florida shows it can be done. When states tax income, they spend as they please and then continually raise taxes. It’s always about the government, never the people.