Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Apr 28 2026

Russia Pledges to Support Tehran


Posted originally on Apr 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Abbas Araghchi is being presented as a diplomatic gesture, yet the substance reveals something far more significant: Moscow has now openly pledged support for Tehran while negotiations with the United States continue to collapse. Russia reaffirmed its strategic backing and even positioned itself as a mediator, while at the same time strengthening its alliance with Iran through military, economic, and nuclear cooperation, making it clear that this relationship is not temporary but structural.

What matters here is not the language of peace but the alignment of power, because when major players begin coordinating at this level during an active conflict, history shows the situation is already moving beyond negotiation. Russia and Iran have been deepening ties for years through sanctions pressure, energy cooperation, and military exchanges, including intelligence sharing and weapons support, and this latest meeting confirms that the alliance is now being formalized in real time as the geopolitical divide widens.

The breakdown in talks with the United States was inevitable, since both sides are demanding outcomes that neither can accept, particularly on nuclear policy and regional control. Iran has made it clear it will not abandon enrichment, while Washington continues to insist on full concessions, leaving no realistic middle ground. At the same time, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing military pressure ensure that even temporary ceasefires remain fragile and largely symbolic.

This is precisely the type of environment the war model has been projecting into 2026, where escalation unfolds through a sequence of failed negotiations, tightening alliances, and economic pressure points rather than a single defining event.

Putin is signaling to the world that the lines are being drawn, and once that process begins, it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse. The fact that both nations are already cooperating across multiple fronts, from energy to military coordination, shows that this is part of a broader realignment rather than a reaction to a single conflict.

The critical mistake is assuming that these events can be managed through continued negotiation, because once alliances harden and economic consequences begin to ripple through energy markets and capital flows, the cycle takes on a momentum of its own. This is why the war model has consistently pointed to this period as one of rising volatility, where events accelerate and policymakers lose the ability to control the outcome.

What we are seeing is not the beginning of a crisis but the continuation of a cycle that has already turned, and once that shift is in motion, history shows it rarely resolves quickly or peacefully.

Apr 28 2026

Study: Soldiers Stop Caring About Survival After Prolonged Warfare


Posted originally on Apr 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

A report from Ukraine’s own military ombudsman now admits that after just 40 days on the front lines, soldiers reach a point where they “stop caring whether they survive,” which is not a sign of resilience but psychological collapse. That is what happens when human beings are fed into a machine that has no exit.

The numbers alone are staggering and should end any illusion that this is sustainable. Estimates as of early 2026 suggest roughly 250,000 to 300,000 Ukrainian military casualties, killed and wounded combined, with far higher cumulative losses over the course of the war depending on the source. Even conservative tracking projects have documented more than 90,000 Ukrainian soldiers confirmed dead or missing by name, and those figures are widely understood to undercount the true scale of losses. This is not a contained conflict, it is a grinding attrition that is consuming an entire generation.

The manpower crisis is now so severe that it can no longer be hidden. Ukrainian units are reportedly operating at a fraction of the required strength, with positions that should be held by 30 soldiers reduced to five or seven trying to hold off waves of attackers. That is not a functioning army. It explains why they cannot rotate men out of the front lines. There are simply not enough replacements left to cycle troops through rest and recovery, so they are being pushed until they break.

This is why we are seeing increasingly aggressive and controversial recruitment practices. Reports have documented men being stopped in the streets, detained, and forcibly taken for mobilization, with widespread resistance and even physical confrontations as authorities attempt to meet quotas. Allegations have surfaced of officials beating or detaining unwilling recruits, prompting protests and driving some men to flee the country entirely despite strict travel bans. This is not voluntary enlistment, it is coercion born out of necessity because the losses have become unsustainable.

At the same time, there have been increasing calls for Ukrainians abroad to return and participate in the war effort, which underscores the scale of the manpower shortage. When a country begins looking beyond its borders to replenish its fighting force while simultaneously tightening domestic mobilization, it is a clear signal that the internal pool of available soldiers is being exhausted.

What makes this even more disturbing is that none of this is being framed honestly. The narrative continues to suggest that this is manageable, that progress is being made, and that morale remains intact, yet the data and internal reports point to the opposite. Soldiers reaching the point where they no longer care whether they live or die is not morale, it is burnout at a level that destroys cohesion and long-term effectiveness.

This is precisely what the war model has been warning about, because once a conflict enters this phase of attrition, it stops being about territory and becomes about endurance. The 2026 Panic Cycle in international conflict is not defined by a single event but by this exact type of escalation, where losses mount, manpower shortages intensify, and governments begin taking measures that would have been unthinkable at the outset.

Wars reach a turning point when the cost in human life begins to exceed the capacity of the state to sustain it, and the signs of that threshold are now clearly visible. Forced mobilization, inability to rotate troops, and collapsing morale are not isolated issues, they are indicators that the system is under extreme strain.

What is unfolding is not a short-term crisis but the continuation of a cycle that is accelerating, and once it reaches this stage, history shows it rarely de-escalates on its own.

Apr 27 2026

Political Theatre – Solve Energy Crisis by Eliminating Fossil Fuels


Posted originally on Apr 27, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

fossil fuels

Over 50 nations are gathering in Colombia to map out a future without oil, gas, and coal, all while the world is in the middle of an energy crisis driven by war, supply disruptions, and rising demand that cannot even be met today. The same governments pretending they can eliminate fossil fuels are quietly scrambling behind the curtain to secure more of them just to keep the lights on.

This is what happens when policy is driven by ideology instead of reality. I have warned repeatedly that there is no viable alternative capable of replacing fossil fuels at scale. This is not an opinion. It is a simple matter of physics and infrastructure. Wind and solar cannot provide baseload power. They are intermittent, unreliable, and require storage systems that do not exist at the level needed to sustain a modern industrial economy. Yet politicians stand up and pretend we can simply flip a switch and transition the entire world economy to renewables as if energy were some optional luxury.

What makes this entire agenda even more dangerous is that they are no longer speaking in vague terms, they are openly stating the objective. Ursula von der Leyen declared that “the global fossil fuel crisis must be a game-changer… let’s earn the clean ticket to heaven,” which is not economic policy, it is ideological rhetoric detached from reality. John Kerry has pushed that leaders must accelerate the “transition away from fossil fuels” or face catastrophe, while Ed Miliband continues to insist Net Zero is essential to eliminate dependence on traditional energy altogether. Then you have Ro Khanna advocating ending fossil fuel subsidies and halting new permits, which in practical terms means cutting supply before any viable replacement exists.

Yet even within their own ranks the cracks are showing. Tony Blair bluntly admitted that any strategy centered on phasing out fossil fuels in the near term is “doomed to fail.” They are publicly advancing an agenda that even insiders know cannot function in the real world.

What they refuse to admit is that every single modern economy depends on fossil fuels at its core. Transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, heating, electricity, all of it. You cannot remove that foundation without collapsing the structure built on top of it. Even now, as they hold conferences and make declarations, countries are reverting to coal because when crisis strikes, theory disappears and survival takes over. That is the reality they will never say out loud.

Europe has already demonstrated the consequences of this madness. They went all in on Net Zero policies, deliberately restricting access to cheap and reliable energy, and now they are paying the price. Energy costs have soared, industry is fleeing, and economic growth has stagnated. Germany, once the industrial engine of Europe, has been undermined by its own energy policy. When you destroy your energy base, you destroy your economy. It is that simple. There is no way around it, no matter how many conferences they hold or agreements they sign.

The hypocrisy here is staggering. While they talk about eliminating fossil fuels, governments are simultaneously securing long-term oil and gas contracts. They are reopening coal plants. They are subsidizing energy just to prevent social unrest. They are saying one thing publicly while doing the exact opposite behind the curtain because they know the truth.

Energy is not something you experiment with at the expense of stability. When you artificially constrain energy supply, you drive up costs across the board. That feeds directly into inflation, reduces competitiveness, and ultimately forces capital to flee to regions where energy remains accessible and affordable. This is precisely why capital has been moving out of Europe. The policies are driving it away.

Governments are not preparing for a world without fossil fuels. They are preparing for conflict over the very resources they claim they want to eliminate. What they are proposing is not just unrealistic, it is dangerous. You cannot dismantle the global energy system and expect the economy to function. The attempt to force this transition prematurely is accelerating the very crisis they claim to be solving.

Apr 27 2026

Germany Aims to Become EU’s Strongest Military Force by 2039


Posted originally on Apr 27, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Germany: Time to Step Up - CEPA

Germany has now openly declared its intention to become the dominant conventional military power in Europe by 2039. What Berlin is doing is a structural shift that has been building quietly for years, and now it is being formalized in plain sight. The plan calls for expanding the Bundeswehr to roughly 460,000 personnel, including reserves, with about 260,000 active troops, effectively doubling the scale of its usable force compared to today.

What stands out is that this is taking place at the same time Germany’s economy is stagnating, with growth forecasts collapsing toward just 0.5% while inflation rises due to energy pressures and geopolitical tensions. You are witnessing the classic historical pattern where governments shift resources toward military buildup as economic conditions weaken. This is precisely how capital is redirected during periods of rising geopolitical risk.

Germany’s military budget tells the real story. The Bundeswehr is now operating with roughly €108.2 billion in 2026, making it one of the largest defense budgets in the world, and a dramatic departure from the decades when Germany refused to even meet NATO’s 2% threshold. Just a few years ago, Germany was spending closer to €80–90 billion annually, and now projections show spending rising toward €150–160 billion by 2029, or roughly 3.5% of GDP.

GermanyUkraineWarPropogandaRecruitment

This is a staggering transformation. For decades, Germany deliberately maintained a weak military posture as part of the post–World War II settlement. Now they are not only rearming, but they are also explicitly stating they intend to be the strongest conventional force in Europe. That would have been unthinkable twenty years ago.

From the perspective of the Economic Confidence Model and the war cycle, this fits perfectly into the timing window we have been warning about. The arrays have been showing a convergence of civil unrest and international war cycles into 2026–2027. What we are seeing in Germany is not isolated. It is part of a broader shift across Europe, where governments are preparing for sustained conflict risk, not a temporary crisis.

Germany has also moved beyond simply increasing spending. They are restructuring the entire military system, including technology integration, AI-driven warfare, and logistics infrastructure that can support rapid deployment across Europe. This is preparation for long-term engagement capability, not defensive posturing. Once governments begin investing at this scale, they are not planning for peace. They are preparing for confrontation.

I have said repeatedly that Europe would move toward militarization as internal political cohesion breaks down and external threats rise. Germany, historically constrained by its past, is now being repositioned as the military anchor of Europe. That changes the balance of power entirely. It also raises serious questions about the future of NATO, particularly as the United States begins to pull back and Europe is forced to stand on its own.

This is why capital flows continue to favor the United States for now, even with its own fiscal issues. Europe is moving into a period of instability, and Germany’s military expansion is confirming that shift. The cycle is turning, and once it does, it does not reverse overnight.

Categories:War

Apr 27 2026

Surviving Your Own Trading Strategies


Posted originally on Apr 26, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Debt Burden

COMMENT: I find it curious how people like ___________ pretend to be great forecasters but are simultaneously fund managers, which precludes them from speaking to central banks. Yet they seem to mimic you. You had to give up even personal stock investing to be able to even speak or advise. All they do is listen to you and copy what you say yet they do not have the database nor are they free of conflicts of interest.

Sometimes, you know… It just won’t fit.  You can fiddle with it, you can try to accommodate it, but you will never make it work. They are doing the world a disservice because they lack the database to forecast the future all by themselves.

RD

ANSWER: That is the dark side of humanity. Then they turn and ask for money to manage. What they do not realize is that when you get too big, your performance declines because you cannot invest the same with $10 billion as you do with $10 million.

There is a large and well-established body of research indicates a negative relationship between fund size and performance across most major asset classes. A 2015 paper by Pástor, Stambaugh, and Taylor, for example, provided strong evidence of what is known as “diseconomies of scale” in the active fund management industry. The effect is widely recognized as a major factor that erodes performance, particularly in strategies focused on less liquid assets like small-cap or micro-cap stocksand real estate funds as we have seen.

Elephant in the Room 2

The bigger they are, the more you should be on guard. The performance decline is driven by a few core challenges that come with managing a larger pool of assets:

Liquidity Constraints, Reduced Information Edge, and Difficulties in Exiting Positions Large funds struggle to take meaningful positions in smaller, less liquid stocks without significantly moving the market price against themselves. This is particularly true for small and micro-cap stocks, where a fund’s size can destroy its own potential for gain. Exiting a large concentrated position can be as challenging as entering it if not worse, when everyone knows you are the elephant in the room. When a very large fund tries to sell, its own selling pressure can drive the stock’s price down, eroding returns.

I had to develop Natural Hedging dealing with portfolios in the trillions. Everything had to be strategically selected and correlated. Even when I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee, I had 50% of the equivalent of the US national debt under contract. You have to come up with a whole new way of funds management to survive.

00:00

02:05

Apr 27 2026

Newsom Spent $1 BILLION to Import 400K Migrants to California


Posted originally on Apr 27, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Newsom Gavon

Gavin Newsom oversaw roughly $1 billion in spending tied to the influx of about 400,000 illegal migrants. According to the figures cited, California effectively expanded programs, contracts, and support systems at scale while already facing structural deficits and a collapsing cost-of-living environment. Newsom will never hesitate to spend California tax dollars on destroying the state.

The number that should stop everyone cold is not the $1 billion alone. It is the 400,000 additional people absorbed into a system that is already breaking. California is dealing with some of the highest housing costs in the United States, with median home prices hovering around or above $800,000 in many regions, and rents consuming a disproportionate share of income. Now layer in a population surge of that magnitude and pretend there are no consequences.

At the same time, the state has been running deficits that swing into the tens of billions depending on revenue assumptions. Yet despite that, officials continued expanding programs tied to migration, including tens of millions in additional funding for services such as legal aid, food assistance, and housing support. Healthcare expansion alone overshot projections by billions, forcing abrupt policy reversals and enrollment freezes when the math simply stopped working.

You cannot tell residents there is no money, raise taxes, watch businesses leave, and then turn around and commit massive resources to policies that increase demand on every strained system. Housing becomes tighter, emergency rooms become overcrowded, infrastructure deteriorates faster, and the working population is expected to absorb the cost. That is exactly what is happening.

The defenders of these policies argue that migration supports the labor force and economic growth. When you introduce hundreds of thousands of people into an already constrained system, the costs hit immediately while any theoretical benefits are delayed and uncertain. Housing demand spikes overnight. Public services are stretched instantly. The problem is visible in every major city across the state.

There is also a capital flight component that cannot be ignored. IRS migration data has shown consistent outflows from California, particularly among higher-income earners. These are the taxpayers who fund the majority of state revenues. As they leave, the tax base shrinks, yet spending commitments continue to rise. That is how you accelerate a fiscal crisis. You drive out revenue while expanding obligations.

If you increase population by hundreds of thousands, spend billions to support that increase, and do so while running deficits and losing your tax base, the outcome is predetermined. The system breaks.

The motive underscores Newsom’s ability to lead. Why import nearly half a million people who cannot contribute to the state economy? Polls. Taxes. Endless funds tied to NGOs and humanitarian causes that permit the state to seize endless tax dollars to combat the very issues it created.

California residents are watching their cost of living rise, their services decline, and their leadership act as if none of it matters. Newsom firmly believes that he will receive an infinite amount of funding, and he’s not wrong. It’s time that the people wake up and realize that Gavin Newsom and the far-left are destroying California.

Categories:Corruption

Tags:CaliforniaGavin NewsomMigrant Crisis

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Apr 27 2026

White House Correspondents’ Association dinner at the Washington Hilton


Posted originally on Apr 26, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

White House Dinner 1996

COMMENT: Marty, where were you? Looked all over for you at the White House Dinner. Wanted to catch up. You missed all the action.

B

REPLY: I haven’t been there in a while. It was always good fun. The best one was 1996. Bill Clinton gave a fantastic speech. He really knew how to work the crowd. I was sitting at the table with George will and other conservative commentators. I remember saying that was a fantastic speech. Well delivered. They were all upset. I just appreciated his speaking talent.

There were no gun shots that year. Just moans. Sorry I could not make it. I’m sure this one will be more memorable.

Apr 27 2026

Interview: Uprisings Everywhere – Iran WAR Just the Start of Global CHAOS


Posted originally on Apr 26, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

C

Apr 26 2026

Surviving Your Own Trading Strategies


Posted originally on Apr 26, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Debt Burden

COMMENT: I find it curious how people like ___________ pretend to be great forecasters but are simultaneously fund managers, which precludes them from speaking to central banks. Yet they seem to mimic you. You had to give up even personal stock investing to be able to even speak or advise. All they do is listen to you and copy what you say yet they do not have the database nor are they free of conflicts of interest.

Sometimes, you know… It just won’t fit.  You can fiddle with it, you can try to accommodate it, but you will never make it work. They are doing the world a disservice because they lack the database to forecast the future all by themselves.

RD

ANSWER: That is the dark side of humanity. Then they turn and ask for money to manage. What they do not realize is that when you get too big, your performance declines because you cannot invest the same with $10 billion as you do with $10 million.

There is a large and well-established body of research indicates a negative relationship between fund size and performance across most major asset classes. A 2015 paper by Pástor, Stambaugh, and Taylor, for example, provided strong evidence of what is known as “diseconomies of scale” in the active fund management industry. The effect is widely recognized as a major factor that erodes performance, particularly in strategies focused on less liquid assets like small-cap or micro-cap stocksand real estate funds as we have seen.

Elephant in the Room 2

The bigger they are, the more you should be on guard. The performance decline is driven by a few core challenges that come with managing a larger pool of assets:

Liquidity Constraints, Reduced Information Edge, and Difficulties in Exiting Positions Large funds struggle to take meaningful positions in smaller, less liquid stocks without significantly moving the market price against themselves. This is particularly true for small and micro-cap stocks, where a fund’s size can destroy its own potential for gain. Exiting a large concentrated position can be as challenging as entering it if not worse, when everyone knows you are the elephant in the room. When a very large fund tries to sell, its own selling pressure can drive the stock’s price down, eroding returns.

I had to develop Natural Hedging dealing with portfolios in the trillions. Everything had to be strategically selected and correlated. Even when I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee, I had 50% of the equivalent of the US national debt under contract. You have to come up with a whole new way of funds management to survive.

Apr 26 2026

White House Correspondents’ Association dinner at the Washington Hilton


Posted originally on Apr 26, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

White House Dinner 1996

COMMENT: Marty, where were you? Looked all over for you at the White House Dinner. Wanted to catch up. You missed all the action.

B

REPLY: I haven’t been there in a while. It was always good fun. The best one was 1996. Bill Clinton gave a fantastic speech. He really knew how to work the crowd. I was sitting at the table with George will and other conservative commentators. I remember saying that was a fantastic speech. Well delivered. They were all upset. I just appreciated his speaking talent.

There were no gun shots that year. Just moans. Sorry I could not make it. I sure this one will be more memorable.

Categories:Uncategorized