Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Jun 30 2026

Rare Earths in Kazakhstan


Posted originally on Jun 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Geography of Kazakhstan - Wikipedia

The United States is now chasing critical minerals because Washington finally realized that outsourcing everything to China was national suicide. Tungsten is not some luxury commodity. It is used in missile warheads, fighter aircraft, semiconductors, and defense technology. Kazakhstan has one of the largest undeveloped tungsten deposits in the world, and the project could eventually produce around 12,000 metric tonnes per year, roughly equal to America’s entire annual imports.

But here is where the story begins to stink. According to India Today, before the Kazakhstan deal was finalized, the Trump administration was prepared to back the project with up to $1.6 billion in federal financing. Within weeks of negotiations, companies linked to Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s family acquired financial interests in entities connected to the mining project.

Documents reviewed by The New York Times, as reported by India Today, show that Dominari Securities, an investment firm based in Trump Tower and partly owned by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, joined investors in acquiring a 20% stake in a company tied to the Kazakhstan venture. Around the same time, Cantor Fitzgerald, formerly led by Howard Lutnick and now overseen by his sons Brandon and Kyle, helped ASP Isotopes raise $210 million. Those transactions can generate millions in fees for an investment bank.

This is exactly why people no longer trust government. They are told every deal is about national security, then the same political families and connected banks somehow appear near the money. The article reports that companies connected to the Trump or Lutnick families have financial interests in at least 14 mining ventures pursuing projects backed by the U.S. government, involving more than $8.9 billion in federal financing or regulatory approvals. That does not prove illegality, but it absolutely raises the question every taxpayer should ask, who benefits?

The White House denied wrongdoing, saying, “The only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s decision-making is the best interest of the American people.” Eric Trump said he was “a passive investor with absolutely no management role.” Fine. Then disclose everything. If taxpayer financing is involved, if federal approvals are involved, and if the sons of the president or commerce secretary are financially positioned around the deal, the public has every right to demand full transparency.

This is how empires rot. Strategic resources become political prizes. Government financing becomes a pipeline for insiders. The public is told it is all for national security while the connected class quietly buys into the projects before the money flows. I have no problem with America securing tungsten. I have a problem when those close to power appear positioned to profit from government-backed deals.

The deeper trend remains clear. The world is moving from globalization into resource nationalism. Critical minerals are the new oil. China controls too much of the supply chain, and the United States must rebuild access to strategic materials. But if Washington turns that necessity into another insider enrichment scheme, then it will only accelerate the collapse in confidence. The resource war has begun, and the political class is already circling the spoils.

Jun 30 2026

One Million Obamacare Filers Lack Social Security Numbers


Posted originally on Jun 30, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Social Security Cards

How many times have politicians stood before the American people claiming Social Security is “running out of money?” That is the biggest fraud of all. I have said for decades that Social Security is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. Your payroll taxes are not sitting safely in an account waiting for retirement. They were spent by Washington years ago. The so-called Social Security Trust Fund is filled with government IOUs, not real assets. Every administration kicked the can down the road while pretending there was a trust fund. There never was. They borrowed every dime and spent it on everything except what workers were promised.

Now look at what has surfaced inside Obamacare. According to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., more than one million Obamacare enrollments lacked Social Security numbers. Kennedy stated, “The Obamacare marketplace is plagued by fraud in large part because the Biden administration dismantled basic program integrity guardrails.” He then asked the question every taxpayer should be screaming at Congress: “Why are we paying people we don’t know if they actually exist?” The administration says it has already removed roughly 2.8 million improper enrollments after reviewing eligibility and broker activity, yet they estimate over one million broker-assisted enrollments were submitted without Social Security numbers. That should terrify every American who pays taxes.

Want a quick look at the scope of Obamacare fraud and zero-claim enrollment? These two charts give an overview of the numbers: ? Improper enrollees ? Zero-claim enrollees ? Automatic renewals ?

Dr. Mehmet Oz exposed another layer of the scandal. “Some of these agents refuse to follow basic rules like providing their clients’ Social Security number. That, my friends, is a huge red flag.” CMS officials say certain brokers enrolled people without their knowledge simply to collect commissions from taxpayers. Once again, Washington’s answer is never accountability. Billions disappear, fraud flourishes, nobody goes to prison, and then politicians return to the microphone demanding more money from the productive class.

Meanwhile, they continue claiming Social Security is going broke because Americans are living too long. Give me a break. In 2025 alone, Social Security paid roughly $1.6 trillion in benefits to more than 73 million Americans. Workers continue paying 12.4% of wages into the system through payroll taxes, yet every surplus collected for decades was loaned directly to the federal government and spent. Today, the Trust Fund holds Treasury securities, promises from a government already drowning in over $40 trillion of federal debt. They stole from one pocket, stuffed an IOU into the other, and now expect everyone to pretend the money is still there.

This is what governments do when they reach the end of the sovereign debt cycle. They waste trillions overseas, finance endless wars, expand every bureaucracy imaginable, tolerate massive fraud, and then have the audacity to tell retirees they must sacrifice because “the system isn’t sustainable.” No, Washington isn’t sustainable. Social Security did not fail because retirees collected too much. It failed because politicians treated workers’ retirement savings as their personal checking account.

Do not expect this to improve. Governments never admit failure. They always look for someone else to blame. First, it was the rich. Then it was retirees. Tomorrow, it will be anyone with savings left. As confidence in sovereign debt continues to erode into the next phase of this crisis, every entitlement program becomes another political weapon. The real crisis has never been Social Security. The real crisis is a government addicted to debt that has spent future generations into oblivion while pretending every promise can somehow be honored.

Jun 30 2026

Understanding the World Economy Free Download


originally on Posted Jun 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Understanding the World Economy

For this July 25th Conference for the Next Generation, I have written a book that those attending will be able to get if the printer finishes it on time. This will be the first edition of knowledge I and trying to pass on. We won’t be able to live stream this event because are trying to keep costs to a minimal so that anyone can join. I am including the the first 86 pages here as a preview, which you can download. I won’t be doing this again. We are trying to keep this at cost. Even renting a room these days is $10,000.

NEXT Generation-F Part I

Understanding the World Economy Index 1
Understanding the World Economy Index 2
Jun 29 2026

Volkswagen Is Germany’s Warning


Posted originally on Jun 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Volkswagen Symbol

I have been saying for years that Germany was committing economic suicide. People thought Germany’s manufacturing base was untouchable. They believed German engineering alone would overcome every political mistake. That was always nonsense. No company, no matter how great, can survive if politicians deliberately make it impossible to produce competitively.

Now even Volkswagen is admitting reality. Reuters reports the company is considering cutting up to 100,000 jobs over the coming years while closing factories, reducing investment, and restructuring parts of the business. This comes after tens of thousands of positions had already been targeted. When the largest industrial company in Germany starts talking about survival instead of expansion, you know something is fundamentally wrong.

Politicians will blame China, while others will blame Donald Trump or tariffs. They always need someone else to blame because admitting failure would mean admitting their own policies destroyed German industry.

Germany shut down nuclear power. Energy prices exploded. Brussels piled regulation upon regulation onto manufacturers while demanding impossible climate targets. Then governments forced companies to pour billions into electric vehicles long before consumers were ready to buy them. China developed far superior EVs at lower prices, leading the US and EU to all but ban them. The cost of living crisis has prohibited most from purchasing new cars for that matter. The average German, a citizen of the EU economic powerhouse, now has a lower net worth than some of the Southern European nations.

German Net Worth

Volkswagen Group delivered 8.98 million vehicles globally in 2025, essentially flat from the previous year, but appearances can be deceiving. Operating profit collapsed by more than 53%, falling from €19.1 billion to just €8.9 billion, even though revenue held steady at roughly €322 billion. Sales in China and North America continued to weaken while tariffs, restructuring costs, and shrinking margins took their toll. Then the first quarter of 2026 brought another warning, global deliveries fell another 4%, including a 15% decline in China and a 20.5% drop in the United States. This is exactly what happens when costs continue rising while demand weakens. You can keep selling cars, but eventually the profits disappear, and once that happens, the layoffs always follow.

Volkswagen once dominated China and was the crown jewel of Germany, the nation that happened to be the economic powerhouse of the EU. Germany surrendered the very advantage that made it successful, reliable and affordable energy combined with world-class manufacturing. Once you destroy that formula, rebuilding it is not as simple as reopening a factory. China has even bid to buy the shutdown VW factories within Germany. The situation is bleak at best.

The unions will object to every layoff and politicians will promise another rescue package. Perhaps they will condemn Chinese imports a bit more. None of that changes the underlying problem and governments cannot regulate prosperity into existence. They can only spend borrowed money pretending they have solved the crisis.

Volkswagen is collapsing because politicians forgot how economies actually function. Germany was once the economic locomotive pulling Europe forward. Now it has become the example I point to when explaining what happens after years of central planning, climate hysteria, and bureaucrats who believe they know better than markets. Our computer has been warning that Europe faces a prolonged economic decline while capital continues seeking safety elsewhere. Volkswagen is simply confirming what the cycles have been projecting for years that points at a downtrend not only in Germany but in the EU as a whole.

Jun 29 2026

They Told You Your Dishwasher Could Spy on You


Posted originally on Jun 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

NSA Spying | Electronic Frontier Foundation

Back in 2012, Wired published an article titled “CIA Chief: We’ll Spy on You Through Your Dishwasher.” That was not some wild theory. That was based on remarks from then-CIA Director David Petraeus, who was speaking about the so-called Internet of Things at an In-Q-Tel summit, the CIA’s own venture capital arm. Petraeus called these technologies “transformational,” especially for their effect on “clandestine tradecraft.” In plain English, the intelligence world saw your home appliances, television, car navigation system, light switches, phone apps, and connected devices as the next great surveillance frontier.

Petraeus said that “items of interest will be located, identified, monitored, and remotely controlled” through RFID, sensor networks, embedded servers, and internet-connected devices. That is the quote everyone should remember. They were not hiding it. They were telling you directly that the smart home would become the spy home. Once upon a time, they had to bug your chandelier. Now they simply wait for you to buy the device, install the app, connect it to Wi-Fi, and sign away your privacy in some user agreement nobody reads.

Wired correctly noted that these devices would produce tagged, geolocated data that could be intercepted in real-time. The dishwasher quote was not really about dishwashers alone. It was about the entire home becoming a listening post and tracking station. Your television, thermostat, lighting system, refrigerator, phone, PlayStation, car, smartwatch, and now even your pet’s microchip become pieces of a surveillance net. This is precisely how tyranny advances, not with a knock at the door, but with convenience, entertainment, and a monthly subscription.

Feds Under Fire for Mass Surveillance of Americans, Lacking Oversight - Davis Vanguard

Petraeus also admitted that this would “change our notions of secrecy” and force a rethink of “our notions of identity and secrecy.” That is military-intelligence language for the end of privacy. They understood long before the average person that once everything became connected, anonymity would become nearly impossible. You would no longer need a warrant to follow someone physically. Their devices would betray them. Their home would betray them. Their car would betray them. Their entire digital footprint would become a map for government and intelligence agencies.

Now we see the same concept expanding into license plate readers that can track phones, wearables, infotainment systems, Bluetooth devices, AirTags, and even animals. This is the same architecture Petraeus was applauding in 2012. They began by calling it smart technology. Then it became public safety. Then national security. Eventually, it becomes total surveillance. The public was mocked for warning about this, but the CIA director said it himself over a decade ago. The only thing that changed is that the technology has finally caught up with the ambition.

Jun 29 2026

Europe to Assist Zelensky’s Conscription Effort


Posted originally on Jun 29, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Europe welcomed millions of Ukrainians with open arms. Governments competed with one another to prove who could be the most compassionate. Nobody wanted to ask the uncomfortable question. What happens when the war drags on for years? Eventually, someone has to fight it.

Now the European Commission is proposing that newly arriving Ukrainian men of military age who are not authorized to leave Ukraine should no longer qualify for temporary protection. Existing refugees would remain protected, but the message is changing. According to the Commission, the proposal came at Ukraine’s request because Kyiv needs to preserve its ability to defend itself. Sweden’s Migration Minister Johan Forssell said the quiet part out loud: “It is essential for us to provide Ukrainians with protection, but at the same time the war needs to be fought and won. For that to happen, it is essential that more men stay in Ukraine and fight.”

Europe is beginning to acknowledge something politicians have carefully avoided saying for years. Wars consume people. Ammunition can be manufactured, but young men cannot. Zelensky has banned military-aged men from leaving the nation.

Zelensky is forcing a generation to perish in this endless war with Russia and NATO. Recent reports indicate that 200,000 soldiers have gone AWOL (absent without leave), and for perspective, that is more soldiers than the entire UK military. Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov warned that the government is hunting down two million Ukrainians who are wanted for evading mobilization.

“Today, we cannot fight with new technologies, with an old organizational structure,” Fedorov said in a televised warning. “Our goal is to change the system, carry out army reforms, improve the infrastructure on the front, to eradicate lies and corruption, to instill leadership, and a new culture of trust.”

The age of conscription was lowered from 27 to 25 back in April 2024. Zelensky has demanded that men from 25 up to 60 years of age join mobilization efforts. Ukraine has a population of 40 million, and 2 million evaders represent a significant portion of men, but only six months ago, reports indicated that 6 million men were wanted for evading the draft. The EU is now considering preventing men aged 24 to 60 from entering the bloc as the war requires ample cannon fodder. Europe is not fighting in this battle for the good or Ukraine or its people.

Image

Everything comes with a price tag in Ukraine. The alleged cost for organized desertion begins in the $7,000 rage, and some reports have stated individuals were able to remove themselves from wanted registry lists for $3,500. Men have attempted to flee to neighboring Belarus, Romania, and Hungary. Romania reportedly detained over 10,000 attempted evaders in 2025 alone. There is little room for escape; everyone must comply with Zelensky’s death orders.

Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukrainian men of conscription age who left the country, many in violation of his wartime restrictions, should return to die in his war. He states it is only “fair” since the army needs them for rotation, which is nothing less than an admission that the war effort is running short of bodies.

“As regards young people who are currently not in Ukraine, but abroad. First of all, there are different groups of young people. I agree with you regarding those of conscription age who left Ukraine. They left temporarily but ended up staying away for years,” Zelensky stated, oblivious to the reason so many fled their homes. “And many of them left in breach of Ukrainian law. The relevant authorities in both countries should address this issue.

Our Armed Forces would certainly like them to return. Because this is a matter of fairness. We have people, soldiers on the front lines, who need rotations. These Ukrainian soldiers are as strong as iron, but let’s be honest: they have families; they are defending their homes, and more than that – the entire state. But this responsibility should be borne by every person who is a citizen of Ukraine who has the capacity to do so. It is both a constitutional duty and a matter tied to conscription age.”
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Zelensky is no longer an elected leader. The people, per usual, have no say in the conflict. They can no longer choose who represents their nation since martial law was declared. Europe is hosting millions of Ukrainian refugees under the banner of humanitarian protection. But they now need protection from Zelensky, not Putin. There are countless videos online of men being abducted in broad daylight. Opting to go to jail, as was common in America during the Vietnam War for example, is not an option. To the frontlines you go.

Most would renounce their citizenship if possible, but here’s the catch: Zelensky has made it ILLEGAL to renounce citizenship during wartime. A person must already have another citizenship approved or guaranteed before they can give it up, and the process requires presidential approval and can take up to a year or more. The unelected president will not permit anyone to renounce their citizenship, but the press frames it as widespread patriotism as only a handful have managed to escape Zelensky’s claws.

The European Union currently provides temporary protection to more than 4.4 million Ukrainians. Housing, healthcare, education, and the right to work have all been extended under the Temporary Protection Directive, which Brussels now wants to prolong until 2028. At the same time, however, officials are drawing a distinction between those already inside Europe and military-age men who may seek refuge in the future.

The reality is that neither the EU nor Zelensky is seeking peace. Every attempt at peace has been outright rejected, and Zelensky is willing to pay for this conflict with the blood of an entire generation.

Categories:War

Jun 28 2026

SEE YOU NEXT MONTH!


Posted originally on Jun 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

UWE.Logo_

Understanding the World Economy

An Introduction to Cycles of Confidence

Most people are taught to view the economy through headlines, political debates, and short-term events. Yet beneath the daily noise are long-term cycles that influence markets, governments, business activity, and even society itself.

Join Martin Armstrong for a special educational event designed to introduce attendees to the concept of confidence cycles and how they shape the world around us. This presentation will provide an accessible overview of the theories and observations that have made Martin Armstrong one of the most recognized independent economic thinkers in the world.

This event is not limited to investors, traders, or finance professionals. It is intended for anyone interested in understanding the forces that drive economic change, including students, business owners, retirees, professionals, entrepreneurs, and curious minds seeking a broader perspective on the world economy.

What You’ll Learn:

  • • The role confidence plays in economic and political change
  • • How cycles influence markets, governments, and society
  • • Why economic trends often repeat throughout history
  • • The interconnected nature of the global economy
  • • The foundations of Martin Armstrong’s approach to analyzing world events
  • Important Information:
  • • This is an educational event only
  • • No financial advice will be provided
  • • No market forecasts or investment recommendations will be discussed
  • • This event is designed as an introduction to the concepts behind cycles of confidence
  • • The event will not be live-streamed
  • • Attendance is available exclusively in-person

This event is also an excellent opportunity to introduce friends, family members, or colleagues to Martin Armstrong’s work. If you have ever wanted to share these ideas with someone important in your life, this presentation provides the perfect starting point.

We do not anticipate offering this event again in the foreseeable future. For those interested in gaining a deeper understanding of Martin Armstrong’s theories on the global economy, this may be a unique opportunity.

Learn. Understand. See the Bigger Picture.

Reserve your seat today:
https://armstrongeconomics.ticketspice.com/understanding-world-economy

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Jun 28 2026

Why It’s Illegal for Farmers to Plant Their Own Seeds


Posted originally on Jun 28, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jun 27 2026

Interview: Taiwan is the Real Risk – Socrates Accurately Forecasts GOLD


Posted originally on Jun 27, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jun 26 2026

The Computer Was RIGHT About Gold


Posted originally on Jun 26, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gold Price Slightly Lower as Test of 200-Day Moving Average Looms Large

Gold has now fallen below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025, and suddenly everyone is proclaiming the bull market is dead. On June 24, spot gold fell to an intraday low of approximately $3,973.79, breaking below the $4,000 level for the first time in seven months. On June 25, gold remained under pressure, trading around $3,982.49. From its January record high near $5,595 an ounce, gold has now declined more than 28%, approaching the 30% correction our computer models had been pointing toward. Markets move in cycles, not straight lines. A correction of this magnitude frightens the late buyers into dumping their positions at precisely the time our computer indicated this washout would unfold.

During my latest interview with Mining, I warned that gold had become extremely overextended and that a major correction into this time period should surprise no one. I also explained that simply replacing the Federal Reserve chairman would not magically produce lower interest rates if inflation continued to accelerate. The market is now beginning to recognize that reality. Expectations for tighter monetary policy under Kevin Warsh, a stronger U.S. dollar, and reduced fears of an immediate Middle East escalation combined to create the perfect environment for a sharp liquidation.

What most analysts continue to miss is that a correction does not automatically signal the end of a secular bull market. The sovereign debt crisis has not disappeared. Europe’s financial problems have not been solved. Governments everywhere continue borrowing at unsustainable levels while geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Capital moves in waves, and violent corrections are a normal feature of every major bull market. During periods of international uncertainty, it is entirely possible for both gold and the U.S. dollar to strengthen together as capital flees political instability and sovereign debt risk around the world. Those who mistake a cyclical correction for the end of the trend usually discover they sold at exactly the wrong time.

This is why relying on opinion is so dangerous. The computer has no emotion, no political bias, and no personal agenda. It follows the movement of global capital. While everyone was chasing gold near $5,600 in January, the models warned that a significant correction was approaching. Now that fear has returned and commentators are declaring the bull market over after a decline to roughly $3,975, the majority is once again reacting emotionally instead of understanding the cycle. Markets rarely reward the majority. They reward those who recognize the trend beneath the volatility.