Interview: Why Gold and Silver Crashed (Pt. 1)


Posted originally on Feb 7, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Free Grocery Stores in NYC?


Posted originally on Feb 6, 2026 by Martin Armstrong

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Grocery stores in New York have devised a clever marketing tactic by preying upon the economically vulnerable. The latest example is the so-called “free grocery store” stunt in New York, which was quickly seized upon as proof that groceries can somehow be made affordable simply by eliminating prices. This is the same naïve thinking that has failed every single time it has been tried throughout history.

Polymarket and Kalshi agreed to provide free groceries for a limited time. That is not a solution; it is a publicity stunt designed to exploit public anger over the rising cost of living. The real danger is that politicians like Zohran Mamdani seize on this spectacle as justification for government-run grocery stores and price controls.

I have warned repeatedly that price controls never work, especially on necessities like food. Price is not some arbitrary number that greedy corporations invent. Price is the signal that tells producers whether it is worth planting crops, transporting goods, hiring labor, and absorbing risk.

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Every time governments attempt to suppress food prices, shortages emerge. Shelves empty. Black markets form and quality deteriorates. The Soviet Union was not plagued by empty grocery stores because of capitalism, but because price controls eliminated the profit motive that keeps supply flowing. Venezuela followed the same path, blaming merchants for rising prices while systematically dismantling production through controls and confiscation. The result was hunger, not affordability.

We are told that eliminating profit, rent, or “corporate greed” will magically lower prices. In reality, removing profit simply removes supply. When a state-run grocery store inevitably runs deficits, the losses are either covered by taxes and create large budget deficits as taxes alone are never enough to cover the promises of politicians.

Grocery inflation has been driven by energy costs, transportation, labor, regulation, , and global commodity cycles. When politicians reach for control instead of reform, they reveal that they do not understand how the system functions. You cannot repeal supply and demand with press releases or social media optics.

There is no such thing as a free grocery store. Someone always pays whether it is the farmer, the transporter, the taxpayer, or the currency itself. When governments interfere with prices, they are not helping the poor; they are laying the groundwork for shortages, dependency, and ultimately social unrest. You cannot feed the public on empty promises and failed solutions.

Bernie Sanders Enjoys Luxury Private Jets – But Wants to Eliminate the Fossil Fuel Industry


Posted originally on Feb 6, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Man of the people, self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders spent over $550,000 on private jet flights in 2025, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The Green New Deal zealot insists climate change is an “existential threat” that warrants limiting YOUR carbon footprint and increasing YOUR taxes. Rules for thee but not for me.

Sanders is the same man who wanted to take the fossil fuel companies to CRIMINAL COURT. He believes we should eliminate fossil fuels, as he flies around on luxury jets to preach about climate change. Sanders sees no problem with using energy to run his three mansions.

Questions regarding his transportation choices only reveal how out of touch Sanders has become. “When was the last time you saw Donald Trump during the campaign mode at a national airport?” he asked, later adding, ““Think about me sitting at a waiting line at United,” Sen. Sanders added. “No apologies for that. That’s what campaign travel is about. That’s what we’ve done in the past. We’re going to do it in the future.”

The vivid difference is that Donald Trump does not want to demonize fossil fuels.

Davos Jets

This is the same line of thinking we see with all bureaucrats who feign environmental concerns as a ploy for power. Hundreds of private jets fly into Davos annually, where the elite scheme ways to limit the carbon footprint of the pawns.

The European Union even exempted private jets from global warming taxes. Since the elite all have private jets, they certainly can’t possibly restrict themselves. They are the ones the world desperately needs. There were 309 private jets that flew to Davos in 2019, and this number grew to around 628 in 2024 and 705 in 2025. The media stated that there was around one private jet for every four World Economic Forum participants.

COVID restrictions did not apply to the elite, who were seen abandoning the very rules they expected the rest to follow. These people have one motive: power. Globalists know the climate change fear-mongering has lost its effectiveness, hence why they are turning toward water and blue initiatives as a way to control the masses. Bill Gates claimed that the climate change crisis was averted, asking the minions to focus on disease and poverty instead. Perhaps there will be a water-derived disease in the future.

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The elites demanded that all companies adhere to carbon and ESG policies. They track and limit carbon usage to tax consumption. Lab-grown meat is becoming normalized since cows simply take up too much land and produce too much carbon. And don’t even think about using a gas-powered stove to cook your lab-grown cancerous cell meat. Gas hookups are prohibited in new construction buildings. Do not drive a gas-powered vehicle to pick up your groceries. In fact, do not even purchase groceries—you can simply eat bugs, own nothing, and be happy.

More Disappointing US Job Data Confirms Trend in Motion


Posted originally on Feb 6, 2026 by Martin Armstrong 

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Another day, another set of disappointing data. Data this week from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicate that the US labor market is no longer merely cooling. According to the latest report, US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, the highest January total since 2009, and more than double January 2025 figures. Hiring plans collapsed to just 5,306 announced jobs — the lowest January level on record since the firm began tracking hiring in 2009.

For years after the pandemic, employment was the one strong headline in an otherwise weakening economy. Even as real growth slowed and debt expanded, companies continued to hire, and workers found jobs. That narrative of a resilient labor market propping up economic optimism is now unravelling. Fewer new hires, skyrocketing job cuts, and employers setting reduction plans before the year even began shouldn’t be dismissed as routine seasonal shifts; they point to a downturn in employer expectations and consumer demand.

While headlines often attribute layoffs to artificial intelligence, the Challenger data shows AI accounted for a relatively small share of the cuts. The dominant forces are market conditions, contract losses, and cost pressures.

The labor market is the backbone of consumer demand. Companies expand payrolls when they believe future sales justify investment. Workers thrive when they believe they will be fairly compensated and not penalized by the government through excessive taxation.

Employers set layoff plans late in 2025, anticipating weaker conditions in 2026. Hiring plans are a clear sign of confidence, or in this case, the erosion of confidence. This is not a temporary cooling but a downward trend.

Since the government is unable to operate, data sources like Challenger and ADP have become more dependable. Still, the data from BLS is the preferred gauge, but there is no need to wait for that data to publish to see that the labor market is weakening.

Confidence always precedes activity. When confidence fades, activity follows.

The Economy into 2028


Posted originally on Feb 6, 2026 by Martin Armstrong 

US Unemployment M Combined 2 5 26

QUESTION: Marty, January posted the largest January job loss numbers since the Great Recession of 108,435, which was a 118% increase from a year earlier. This seems to be in line with Socrates’ going into February where it projected a rise in volatility there as well and a Directional Change. Plus, consumer confidence started declining during 2025. The decline has been ongoing for most of 2025, with January 2026 representing a particularly sharp drop that continued an existing downward trend. Your model forecast a recessionary  trend into 2028 years in advance. Will society every look are your work and cycles?

GD

Unemployment Y 8 2 24

ANSWER: I don’t think the West will wake up until after 2032. Then, hopefully, they will review all the forecasts for there are so many and see that there is something to this. The critical resistance remains at 6.6% Exceed that on an annual closing, and you will see a very serious rise.

935 ECM 2020 2028

Amazon is showing weakness on both on the macro and business-cycle perspectives.  The combination of weakening consumer demand, mainly in the lower- to mid-income tiers, and pricing pressures from shortages and to some extent from tariffs, are key factors to keep in mind. We are also in the middle of a Schumpeter Wave of Creative-Destruction into August 2028.  This is confusing and will have impacts on the market to create false moves with high validity.

Armstrong with Greg Hunter


Posted originally on Feb 5, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Winters: It’s Really Telling That Democrats Are So Worried About Illegal Aliens Showing Up To Vote


Posted originally on Rumble on Bannon War Room on: February 4, 2026

Private Payrolls Miss Expectations


Posted originally on Feb 5, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

Private payroll processor ADP reported that U.S. private employers added just 22,000 jobs in January, far below the consensus expectation of roughly 45,000–46,000 and softer than December’s revised figures. This weak headline comes just as official government jobs data has been delayed, yet again, due to ongoing political dysfunction in Washington, leaving markets increasingly dependent on alternative indicators for labor conditions.

For most of the post-COVID era, labor data was resilient even as other economic indicators deteriorated. Workers continued to find jobs, wage growth stayed elevated, and unemployment remained low. But now, job creation has faltered. Across 2025, private payroll additions fell to roughly 398,000 — barely half of the 771,000 added in 2024.

Manufacturing continues to decline, posting a loss of 8,000 jobs in January. December’s expansion was initially overstated and has been revised to reflect a growth of 37,000 v 41,000. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its report, chances are it will reflect another downward revision in job creation. People blame the Federal Reserve for holding rates but fail to see that cheaper debt is no longer enticing.

Employers hire when they believe demand will grow. Workers enter the labor force when they believe their skills will be rewarded. Weak job creation is a symptom of declining institutional confidence on the part of both the employer and employee.

Investors and policymakers often treat employment data as a short-term indicator. But when employment starts softening against a backdrop of already weak growth, it suggests the economy is reaching a turning point. The next phase could include slower GDP growth, increased social unrest, or more aggressive policy interventions.

Businesses stop hiring when they lose confidence in demand, not because rates are too high. If interest rates were the determining factor, Europe and Japan would be booming. Governments cannot stimulate indefinitely when debt servicing costs rise faster than tax revenues. That is why labor market weakness matters so much. Fewer jobs mean slower consumption, weaker revenue growth, and rising fiscal stress.

Could Europe Defend Itself Without America?


Posted originally on Feb 5, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

NATO

Could Europe defend itself without America? In January 2026, NATO launched Operation Steadfast to answer that question. The operation is the largest exercise of the year, deploying around 10,000 troops from 11 member states across Central Europe. The plan involves the Allied Reaction Force, a rapid response element designed to test trans-Atlantic coordination in simulated high-intensity conflict conditions from land, air, sea, and cyber.

However, America is still assisting European NATO allies in carrying out Operation Steadfast through its financial backing. Greenland is not the reason for the exercise, as the plan was drafted last year. Brussels wishes for Europe to operate, vote, behave, and attack as a collective. Politicians claim broad “Europe-wide” threats from foreign nations to justify a stronger military alliance. Neocons believe they can eventually create a European army that will protect Brussels above all else.

The same politicians who push for European military power have been undermining capital through debt, regulation, and climate mandates that have destroyed the continent’s energy supply.

NATO was created during a period of high confidence in government following World War II. The alliance worked because the United States was economically dominant, politically unified, and willing to absorb the cost of global security. Europe, by contrast, redirected capital away from defense and into social spending, bureaucracy, and regulation.

Europe’s reliance on the United States through NATO delayed reform, encouraged dependency, and allowed politicians to sell the illusion that defense costs nothing. That illusion is now ending.

The ECM has been warning that the 2026–2032 window marks rising global conflict risk. Not because leaders want war, but because declining confidence removes the mechanisms that prevent it. Alliances fracture, miscalculations rise, and nations act in self-interest rather than collective stability. NATO is in the confidence erosion phase. Article 5 can only go forth if each member believes in the cause.

Swedish Migrant Gangs Targeting Children


Posted originally on Feb 5, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

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Gangs in Sweden are increasingly recruiting children to join their organizations. Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer warned that the nation is now in an “emergency situation” as these crime rings take over neighborhoods. Lawmakers are now seeking to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 13. And yet, many in opposition to the proposal worry that these gangs will simply recruit younger kids.

Strommer warned that the law would only apply to the “’most serious crimes” such as murder, attempted murder, aggravated bombings, aggravated weapons offences and aggravated rape,” as noted by the BBC. Children in Sweden were not committing these heinous offenses until the demographic change. Open borders open the arena for bad actors. The fact of the matter is that most of these criminal organizations originate from overseas networks. Open borders enabled these organizations to expand their operations and prey upon new victims who are not protected by their government. Migrants are over 2.5X as likely to be registered as criminal suspects, but mentioning a demographic fact is considered racist.

Of the 18 gang-related murders in 2024, 100% of those involved had migrated to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. Bomb detonations are steadily increasing, with 149 reported bombings in 2023 that went up to 317 the following year. Gangs are recruiting impressionable, often impoverished children to blast grenades and kill rival gang members. Again, these people were not vetted and checked within the system. They often are unable to work and must rely on taxpayer social services.

Politicians refuse to admit mistake. Rather than addressing the root of the crime, lawmakers are seeking new ways to deal with the repercussions of their errors. Open borders are permanently altering Europe. Sweden was once among the safest nations in Europe, and now, gangs roam free as politicians turn a blind eye to the cities crumbling beneath them.