Posted originally on Mar 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
New York has always been known as the city that never sleeps. The glowing skyline is not simply decoration; it reflects commerce, tourism, finance, and the constant economic activity that built the city into a global capital. Now lawmakers are pushing the New York State Dark Skies Protection Act, which would impose strict limits on outdoor lighting across the state. The official explanation is environmental, to reduce light pollution, save energy, and protect wildlife. Yet in a city whose entire identity is built around 24/7 activity, there is clearly more behind this proposal than simply wanting to see the stars.
The legislation would require outdoor lights to be shielded so they point downward rather than upward, and would restrict lighting between roughly 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. unless specific events are taking place. Businesses and municipalities would be forced to install motion sensors or automatic shutoff systems, while parks, recreation facilities, and venues would have to reduce illumination overnight. Supporters say this will reduce wasted electricity and help the environment. Cities like New York exist precisely because they do not shut down at night. The skyline, Times Square, Broadway, and countless businesses operate around the clock because visibility attracts people and commerce. The Big Apple was once the most bustling city in the world, the ultimate point of comparison for any other city in the world. Now, politics are erasing the very culture that helped shape NYC and the rest of America for that matter. Yet another reason why blanket legislation always fails.
Studies estimate that roughly 30% of outdoor lighting in the United States is “wasted energy.” Governments see this as an opportunity to reduce electricity consumption and meet energy reduction targets without openly raising taxes. But forcing businesses to replace lighting systems, install sensors, and comply with new restrictions is not free. For commercial buildings, retail districts, and entertainment venues, this becomes another compliance cost. In reality, this acts like a giant indirect tax on corporations and small businesses alike, imposed through regulation rather than legislation.
The economic implications go further. Tourism, nightlife, restaurants, theaters, and advertising depend on lighting to create an atmosphere that keeps people on the streets. Limiting illumination reduces the visual energy that attracts visitors and investment. New York’s nighttime economy generates billions of dollars annually, yet policymakers seem willing to chip away at the very infrastructure that supports it. The left-leaning voters in the city are also overriding votes from the rest of the state.
This is part of a broader cultural shift that is dismantling what made New York famous in the first place. Businesses that built the city are being pushed out by rising costs and regulations, while the nightlife culture known worldwide is steadily being suffocated. This is clearly cultural assassination, erasing the very identity that made New York thrive. The city that once proudly stood as a symbol of Western commerce and cultural confidence is being transformed. What is their end goal? What will New York City look like when the cost of business is no longer feasible, and capital continues to flee?
The irony is that policymakers often treat these measures as harmless environmental policies. Yet historically, when governments begin regulating the very elements that define economic vitality, whether lighting, nightlife, or advertising, it signals deeper economic stress. Energy costs are rising, infrastructure is under pressure, and governments are looking for ways to reduce consumption. Turning off the lights in the city that never sleeps may be sold as environmental protection, but economically, it reflects a far larger issue: how governments increasingly shift costs onto the private sector while claiming to save the planet.
Posted originally on Mar 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Well, it looks like David Sachs has publicly stated that there can be nuclear war if Israel runs out of ammo and is on the verge of being defeated. You warned about this. You have not commented on whether Netanyahu is dead or if Iran has sunk an American destroyer. The Supreme Leader they killed had agreed no nuclear weapon and said that was against his religion. It seem Netanyahu is the dark devil in the mix who is intentionally leading the world into the end times. Nobody has contacts like you nor are they as objective. Would you address these questions?
Frank T.
ANSWER: There is no question that AI is complicating everything. I do not believe Netanyahu is dead. I have said he is a very dark soul and a staunch Neocon who wants the destruction of Iran no matter what. There is NO WAY Israel would admit that Netanyahu is dead publicly for that would create Panic to say the least. The same is true about Iran reporting that they did sink a destroyer. There is no way the Pentagon will publicly admit to that either.
We know that Iran has amassed a major stockpile of balistic missiles and drones and they would use them to overwhelm the Israeli defense pushing them to the point that they are running out of interceptors. They can inflict massive economic losses on Israel and strike at the very heart of their morale.
Let’s make one thing clear. The Neocons in league with Netanyahu have pushed Trump into this war with the promise it will be short and sweet. It always the same scenario. Even look at Vietnam. President Lyndon B. Johnson was not told the war would brief. When he committed the first ground troops in 1965, he stated the initial deployment would last only about six months.
There was ZERO planning for the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Of course they knew this would be a chokepoint. They problem is that they assumed that they would score an easy fast victory. Granted, they struck some 7,000 target and have degraded Iran’s conventional capabilities. However, a single terrorist with a shoulder-mounted missile can take out a ship. Iran has been reduced to missile warfare, terrorism, activating terrorist cells, and cyber warfare. Even with Iraq, taking down the leadership did not end the war.
While President Trump wants NATO allies to join the fight to keep the Strait open, most are rejecting his call like Australia. Sending in the military to try to keep the Strait open is not going to be some short gig. This will become an open-ended war commitment all because the Neocons always lie to just get their wars going. That’s all they care about. Get it started and then nobody wants to admit defeat so it drags on like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. It’s always the same set of lies, This is why wars are so unpredictable.
Trump has even said he is not interested in a deal because he does not know who he is dealing with after they killed the leadership. This is precisely why I was against killing the Ayatolla. Netanyahu always wants to kill the leadership assuming everything will collapse. In military strategy, you NEVER kill the leadership because there is then nobody to negotiate with. Trump has listened to Netanyahu who is a very dark soul and we are now trapped into a mess that I believe eventually the world will come to blame Netanyahu and Israel. I have warned that history clearly shows that assassination in war always fail. I am deeply concerned that Trump is not being given legitimate advice.
Economic Warfare
In the beginning of the American Revolution, General George Washington tried to fight the British the “proper” way—with a traditional European army lining up and exchanging volleys. This almost led to the complete destruction of the Continental Army. After a series of near-disasters, Washington and his commanders realized that to win, they had to adapt. They couldn’t beat the British at their own game. Instead, they used the landscape and their knowledge of the territory to their advantage.
The Americans employed several classic guerrilla tactics. The adopted Hit-and-Run Attacks. Instead of standing and fighting, American militia and light infantry would ambush British patrols, shoot from behind trees and stone walls, and then melt back into the countryside before the British could form up and respond effectively.
For the life of me, I cannot fathom what idiots these Neocons are. They even sold their nonsense to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. All they do is assume victory because US has the strongest military. They learned nothing from Afghanistan or Iraq that sheer military power alone does NOT guarantee victory. I think any history student would have figured out that Iran would adopt similar tactics of George Washington for the very same reason that they cannot hope to defeat the United States. Of course, they would attack the oil infrastructure to drive the cost of energy up knowing that this is economic warfare precisely what the USA, EU and NATO have done to Russia trying to cut off their energy sales to starve them out so they cannot wage war. Clearly, this is the same strategy Iran is now employing.
Economic warfare has been around for hundreds of years. Napoleon counterfeited British pounds to undermine their economy to defeat them in war. This has been a regular tactic.
The British counterfeited American currency during the American Revolution all to create inflation and undermine the economy.
Operation Bernhard was a Nazi Germany in World War II counterfeited the currency of Great Britain to undermine the currency value as a tactic to win the war. Should we be surprised that Iran is attacking refineries and doing everything possible to send crude oil higher? That is a pretty straight forward war tactic that is by no means new. Washington knew he could not win fighting the British way standing in formation and shooting. Iran knows it too cannot hope to defeat the United States in a straight up military confrontation.
Tehran is waging economic war and is now proposing that vessels may be permitted to use the route if the oil trade is conducted in China’s currency, the yuan. While that will not really kill the dollar, it is a favorite conspiracy theory about the petrodollar.
It is a 24 hour drive from Tel Aviv to Tehran. Iran has stockpiled missiles and drones and has been overwhelming Israel’s defenses. Just as Netanyahu has been seeking to destroy the government of Iran, they too have the same goal for they know it does not matter, a cease fire will only allow Israel to prepare for the next war.
There was no objective from the start. Trump claimed the war was over on day one. If that were true, then it is strange that we are entering week three. Worse still, there is no exit strategy. This is where the risk of nuclear war enters. Iran knows there can be no ceasefire for that is not a long term solution. The goal of regime change and killing the Ayatolla has undermined the entire Middle East for how does that play out. Failing to achieve that means the end goal has not changed so there will be perpetual instability in the Middle East and I fear that is what the computer is warning about 2027 inro 2028.
The first attack on Iran began in 2022 precisely on time for the final wave that peaks in ideally February 21st, 2027. From that turning point into 2031, this is not looking like a peaceful people. Our long0term models on Crude Oil tend to agree, with a Panic Cycle in 2028.
With about one-third concerned that this leads to armageddon and other cheering for it to bring the Second Coming, Trump may have stepped into something he had no idea where this would lead. The info from Israel will be biased and untrustworthy just as that coming from Iran. We ended up in a war where the United States is not fully in control. Trump was elected promising to end these Neocon Wars. They do not care about him or his legacy.
Because both sides hate each other and vow to utterly destroy the other denying their right to exist, the risk of nuclear war exists for Netanyahu has vowed his hatred of Iran for the ast 40 years. When they run out of interceptors and this war is not over in just a few weeks, then Israel will be at risk of destruction.
We can see that Netanyahu has spun this story that this will be a quick victory and it will not be another endless war.
The question becomes at what point will Netanyahu push the button? Will he even tell Trump in advance?
I have studied history intently. The ONLY way to achieve peace is that you MUST listen to the other side’s demands for their security.This is why NATO and the EU refuse to come to terms with Russia because they refuse to listen to what security concerns Russia has regarding Ukraine. Here with Iran, why they are rejecting a ceasefire is simple. There is no negotiation whatsoever that listens to their concerns. They have articulated that the US should close all bases and exit the Middle East. I think you would sooner see John Bolton’s head spin around while spewing out green fluide.
The solution is not that hard. All th Gulf States where the US has bases have proven that instead of providing security, they have become targets. They have not benefited from having these bases and now they stand in the way of peace. So, how do we get around this problem? Those Gulf States must retake their sovereignty over those basis and guarantee that they will NOT be used to launch future attacks on Iran without their permission. The US keeps the bases, but they cannot operate unilaterally as in the case in Europe.
The only way to ensure lasting peace is that Israel must accept a Palestinian state. This has been even voted in the United Nations. The only reason it does not take place is because of the United States. Unless this is done, it is hard to see how there can ever be a lasting peace. This has been the primary reason why Netanyahu has wanted to overthrow Iran. He assumes that the elimination of Iran will prevent any Palestinian state. Let’s face the facts. Unless some state is established, there is no hope of ending terrorism and war. This documentary, The Heart of Jenin, about a Palestinian boy shot and killed by an Israeli soldier who thought the toy gun was real. Not everyone is filled with hatred.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
For years, politicians across the Western world have insisted that windmills and solar panels would power the future while reliable energy sources were dismantled in the name of climate policy. Now reality is beginning to intrude. Canada is preparing to unveil a national electricity strategy centered on expanding nuclear power as governments confront a basic problem they ignored for years — electricity demand is rising far faster than their green policies ever anticipated.
Artificial intelligence, data centers, and electrification mandates are dramatically increasing power demand across North America. At the same time, governments closed coal plants, restricted natural gas, and stalled nuclear projects for ideological reasons. The result has been rising electricity prices and growing concern about long-term energy security.
Canada is now quietly acknowledging what engineers and economists have been saying for years. Nuclear powerremains one of the few reliable baseload energy sources capable of supporting a modern industrial economy. Several new reactors are already planned or under construction, and the government’s upcoming strategy is expected to accelerate those projects.
Canada is building a new generation of nuclear reactors known as small modular reactors (SMRs). The most important project is the Darlington New Nuclear Project in Ontario. Ontario Power Generation has begun construction of the first BWRX-300 small modular reactor at the Darlington site, with the reactor expected to come online around 2029–2030.
The Darlington project is significant because it is expected to become the first grid-scale SMR operating in a G7 country. The government has approved a full fleet of four SMRs at the site, which together could produce about 1,200 megawatts of electricity — enough to power roughly 1.2 million homes. Each reactor is a GE Hitachi BWRX-300 design that produces around 300 megawatts of power and is smaller and less complex than traditional nuclear plants, which is intended to reduce construction costs and speed up deployment.
At the same time, Canada is completing major refurbishment projects on existing nuclear plants such as the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station. This refurbishment extends the facility’s life for decades, preserves thousands of jobs, and continues to produce reliable baseload electricity.
Beyond individual projects, the Canadian government is preparing to release a national electricity and nuclear strategy to accelerate nuclear development and provide investors with clearer policy direction as electricity demand rises sharply.
This shift exposes the contradiction that has defined Western energy policy. Governments attempted to restructure entire energy systems based on political narratives rather than economic reality. Now they are discovering that the industrial world cannot function without stable, large-scale electricity generation. The return to nuclear is less about environmental policy and more about economic survival.
I will be speaking in Vancouver on March 31 at the 2026 World Outlook Conference. The discussion will be tailored to the Canadian investor, as it is paramount to understand what is on the horizon. The next few years will be volatile to say the least, and the best we can do is to prepare for what is to come. I have refrained from sharing the full scope of the glaring Turning Points and Panic Cycles flashing on Socrates, but I am prepared to give attendees the full story.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The press is reporting that Venezuela is opening its mining sector to American companies, allowing foreign investment to extract gold, diamonds, and rare earth minerals after the National Assembly approved the first step in rewriting the country’s mining laws. The reform extends mining concessions from 20 to 30 years and allows international arbitration in disputes, clearly designed to attract Western capital that had previously been locked out under the old socialist system.
The real story is rare earth minerals and the global race to secure them. Washington has already authorized transactions involving Venezuelan gold through the state mining company Minerven and is working to bring American mining firms into the country. The move comes after the United States began reopening Venezuela’s oil sector to American companies as well, signaling that the real objective is securing access to resources that have become strategically vital.
The deeper issue is that the United States does not control the resources it needs to maintain its technological and military dominance. Rare earth minerals are essential for missiles, fighter jets, radar systems, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. As I have explained before, America’s defense supply chain depends on materials it does not control. That is a serious vulnerability in any geopolitical confrontation.
China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, accounting for the majority of production and refining. In fact, China supplied about 71% of U.S. imports of rare earth compounds and metals in recent years and controls much of the processing capacity for these materials. These minerals are not just another commodity. They are the foundation of modern industrial technology, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and the entire defense sector.
This is why Washington has been quietly pursuing mineral deals around the world. The United States has already secured preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, which include significant deposits of graphite, titanium, lithium, and rare earth metals. Ukraine holds roughly 5% of the world’s critical raw materials, making it strategically important in the mineral race. The mineral agreement between Washington and Kyiv was never just about economic reconstruction. It was about securing long-term access to materials needed for modern industry and military technology.
Japanhas also been drawn into this geopolitical struggle. After China restricted rare earth exports in the past, Tokyo began aggressively diversifying its supply chain and securing new mineral partnerships to reduce dependence on Beijing. The entire world is now scrambling to secure access to the materials that underpin modern technology.
Venezuela now enters that equation. The country is believed to possess significant untapped mineral deposits. If these resources are opened to Western investment, it will provide another potential supply source outside of China’s control. That is why this move is important. It is not about reviving Venezuela’s economy. It is about the strategic mineral competition that is quietly reshaping global politics.
Behind every war and every geopolitical confrontation lies the same fundamental issue – resources. Oil dominated the last century. Rare earths and critical minerals will dominate the next. The United States understands that its technological future depends on securing these materials, and that explains the sudden interest in places like Ukraine and now Venezuela.
The public hears about democracy, sanctions, and diplomacy. But the real game is being played beneath the surface. Control the resources and you control the future of industry, defense, and economic power. Venezuela’s coerced decision to open its mineral wealth is just another move on that global chessboard.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter.
This sudden deceleration is not a small revision. Data signals that economic momentum was already fading before we entered 2026. Consumer spending was revised down significantly, government spending collapsed due to the 43-day shutdown, and exports also declined. The key measure of domestic demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, slowed to just 1.9%, down from 2.9% in the prior quarter.
For the full year, the U.S. economy grew about 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, confirming that the economy has already been losing momentum. When you look at the quarterly pattern, the shift becomes clear. Growth surged at 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3, only to suddenly collapse to less than 1% as we moved into the final months of the year.
At the same time, inflation has not disappeared. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge shows core inflation running around 3.1% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. That means the economy is now slowing while inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
The labor market is also beginning to reflect the shift. Job growth has slowed significantly, and some reports indicate monthly job losses are beginning to appear as businesses become more cautious heading into 2026. When GDP weakens and employment softens simultaneously, it typically signals that the business cycle is turning.
But the bigger issue moving forward is war. The United States and its allies are now entering a major geopolitical conflict environment with the ongoing confrontation involving Iran. Rising oil prices tied to that conflict are already beginning to ripple through the global economy. Energy shocks historically feed directly into inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth.
That is why the coming quarters could become increasingly volatile. Economic growth is already weakening while inflation remains above target. If energy prices surge due to war or supply disruptions, inflation will rise again as the economy slows further. That is the textbook setup for stagflation.
From a cyclical perspective, this aligns with what the Economic Confidence Model has been warning about. The period into 2026 was always expected to be a turning point as capital flows shift globally amid rising geopolitical tension. War has historically been one of the biggest disruptors of economic growth, and once energy prices rise sharply, the ripple effects quickly spread through transportation, manufacturing, and food prices. In other words, the slowdown we are seeing now may only be the opening stage.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
There is a critical failure in the Neocons’ playbook. They assumed that Iran would NOT close the Strait of Hormuz, for they assumed that they would line it with mines and physically close the waterway, which would be suicidal for them as well. Still, they sought out and destroyed several of their mine laying ships. But Iran has been able to close the Strait with just threats. Ships headed to China are passing with no problem and the US is not doing anything about it fearing (1) it would be confrontational with China, and (2) it would cause oil prices to rise even higher. Iran attacks ships selectively. That is the fear tactic that has shut the Strait without mines or Iranian naval ships.
Our greatest problem here is that we DO NOT know what the goal of this war is supposed to be. Trump has said regime change, end nuclear weapons, as well as degrade the Iranian military. As long as he does not clearly state what is the objective, then this leaves the door open to declare victory and exit. If he says it was just to degrade the military, then he can declare victory and end it tomorrow. Bur why then assassinate the Ayatollah? That made it seem to be the regime change and calling to the people to rise up was in line with that. Iran has stated that it 400 kg of uranium is under ruble. If that is true, then the nuclear argument is off the table. Yet to do either the regime change or the seizure of the nuclear material will necessitate boots on the ground and there is no real support in America for that.
No matter what the truth may be, the perception remains that this is Israel’s war and we have participated in the targeting and killing of the Ayatollah, which was Israel’s policy of decapitation.
Apocalypse fears, once associated with the fringes of society, are now commonplace across North America—and are shaping attitudes towards perceived threats. New research has revealed just how widespread these beliefs have become, fueled by climate change, geopolitical instability and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. Belief in the end of the world is surprisingly common across North America, and it’s significantly influencing how people interpret and respond to the most pressing threats facing humanity. This is becoming a dominant concern with many viewing the Middle East war as leading to Armageddon.
Posted originally on Mar 15, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Marty, looking at Socrates, it does not show that this release of 400 million barrels of oil will do much. Am I reading this correctly?
ANSWER: The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil into the global market, the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. This is just for show. However, it actually makes things far more vulnerable. This is all predicated on a quick victory with the conquest of Iran. If that assumption is wrong, this will not help.
1. MATHEMATICALLY INSUFFICIENT (won’t even cover 2-3 months of lost supply) 2. STRATEGICALLY STUPID (leaves U.S. vulnerable to future crises) 3. POLITICALLY DESPERATE (election-year panic move) 4. ECONOMICALLY FUTILE (treats symptom, not disease)
Let’s get real. Global oil consumption is about 100 million barrels/day (mb/d). U.S. consumption is about 20 million barrels/day. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz supply affects about 21 million barrels/day (21% of global supply). Releasing 400 million barrels at the global consumption rate would last 19 days (400M ÷ 21M/day). There is no way this will calm markets in the long term.
As I have been warning since the turn in the ECM in 2024, the US would enter STAGFLATION but Europe would be more of an economic Depression. The Marxist agenda of the EU oppresses the economy and it has posted the lowest economic growth of the major powers in the world. They hatred of the rich and insistance on exploiting them is why the economic growth is pathetic. As I have said, the capitalization of just the NYSE is nore than all the exchanges of Europe, including London, combined.
The Trump administration has wisely invoked the Defense Production Act and had overriden California which shut down offshore oil operations in California. Trump has wisely addressed oil supply disruption risks and reduce reliance on foreign crude by increasing domestic production. Releasing 400 million barrels is just not a real solution.
The Trump Administration has directed Sable Offshore Corp., an oil and gas company headquartered in Houston, to restore operations at the Santa Ynez Unit and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System off the coast of Santa Barbara. Failing to do so allows Iran to engage in a supply war like the 1970s. Trump is also lifting sanctions on Russia. The best thing to come out of this Iran War is to put a check against Zelensky.
I am still concerned about June/July. While President Trump said “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” on NBC on Saturday, saying that a “very solid” agreement would have to include a commitment by Tehran to abandon nuclear ambitions. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic is open to “any regional initiative that leads to a fair end to the war,” according to an interview published by the UK-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website on Sunday.
Let me cut through the diplomatic bullshit and tell you what’s really happening: Netanyahu is absolutely pushing for regime change in Iran, and Trump is going along with it. But the relationship is more complex than simple puppet-master dynamics.
NETANYAHU’S POSITION has been clear and consistent. He wants the complete destruction of Iranian regime (not just nuclear program, not just military degradation—REGIME CHANGE). He has wanted this for 40+ years (documented, consistent). He has stated this explicitly multiple times in recent months (post-Feb 28 strikes). The first strike was to implement his insane policy of DECAPITATION assuming that would cause the government to collapse assassinating Khamenei and the IRGC leadership.Let’s be clear. That is not “deterrence,” that’s REGIME CHANGE operation and Trump agreed.
TRUMP’S POSITION looking at his public statements, suggests “maximum pressure,” “they must change behavior.” He has also made occasional regime change hints. His actions are consistent with regime change decapitation strikes, “every weapon” threats, no clear offramp for Iran. This presents the problem of no exit strategy all based on the assumption Netanyahu whispers in his ear that DECAPITATION will succeed. Yet, Trump is also transactional might accept “deal” if Iran capitulates completely, but that does not see likely based on our computer models. Netanyahu absolutely in his ear, but Trump has own motivations (political, ego, strategic)
The real question is: Why is Trump doing this BECAUSE Netanyahu demands it, or are their interests ALIGNED? It appears that Trump and Netanyahu both want regime change, yet for independent motivations. Netanyahu has been pushing Trump further/faster than Trump would go alone.
Netanyahu does have domestic US support he is using against Trump. The Evangelical base (30-40% of Trump’s coalition) are fanatically pro-Israel, see Iran as biblical enemy as the Amalek of 1 Samuel 15:2-3! Then there are the domestic Jewish donors who are also major Republican funding such as Sheldon Adelson’s widow Miriam, others—billions at stake. There is also the AIPAC influence, which is a powerful lobbying group that can make/break candidates. Add to this, the media support, which spins the Neocon agenda and is Pro-Israel amplifying Trump when he’s tough on Iran.
The Byzantine Empire did try to defeat the early Arab-Islamic Caliphates and lost a significant portion of its territory. However, the Empire managed to survive, fight back, and eventually reclaim some of its lost lands. Yet the conflict was not a single, short war but a protracted series of campaigns known as the Arab-Byzantine wars, spanning over four centuries from the 7th to the 11th century. The outcome was a mixture of catastrophic defeat and eventual resurgence. They conquered Constantinople and the last emperor died fighting on the walls trying to save the last remanent of the Roman Empire.
This war is pushing the system over the edge and at stake will indeed be the 2026 Midterm Elections. The vast majority of congressional Republicans are publicly supportive of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran. This does not help matters. My concern is that nobody seems to comprehend that this is NOT the same as Iraq. Saddam was just a head of state. This is a religious war as was the case in Afghanistan. There is no historical precedent for winning such a war when the core is to undermine or destroy a religion.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Marty; I was rereading the Middle East report from the 2023 WEC. You had everything pointing to this starting in 2025. Even your Wave 10 on Islam pointed to 2025. Do you still see this ending bad for Israel and a broadening war? It is obvious, the press is told to stay far away from you because they do not like your computer’s forecast. They treat you like they did Kondratieff because Stalin did like his cyclical forecast either.
HG
ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. Israel’s Iron Dome has failed. Netanyahu is a Neocon. He has over estimated his own position and assumes dragging in the United States ensures total destruction of Iran. The Neocon believe their own BS that the USA has the strongest military and nobody can defeat them. That arrogance is their downfall. They assassinated the Ayatollah following Israel’s policies which are dead wrong. The new Ayatollah is now much more anti-West and pro-nuclear weapons as the only deterent against Israel.
The hardline position of Iran has been made clear by the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah-ul-Uzma Mojtaba Khamenei, following his ascension to power after the US and Israel assassinated his father. In a formal statement delivered via Swiss intermediaries, Iran presented a three-point ultimatum to the United States, demanding:
– Complete withdrawal of all U.S. military forces from the Middle East within 30 days
– Immediate lifting of all sanctions on Iran
– Payment of $500 billion in compensation
The deadline for compliance is April 10, 2026. If unmet, Iran threatens to:
– Close the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic
– Pursue nuclear weapons development, including possible deployment
– Allow China and Russia to establish military bases on Iranian soil
The arrogance of the Neocons who judge the world through the eyes of their perceived power like some bully in the school yard, completely fail to understand not just what they have done, but the very soul of their adversary. Iran’s new leadership has shown ABSOLUTELY no willingness to soften its stance toward the West, despite significant onslaught of this military attack. I have warned that I would turn this into a proxy war to drain the United States. Reactions have been swift as both China and Russia have publicly backed Iran’s “legitimate security concerns.” Indeed, this is about regime change and the destruction of the Islamic Republic. As always, the Neocons in their mind paint their adversary as ruthless and the people will rise up to overthrow their government. That did not happen in Iraq and the spun the same exact nonsense.
Global markets reacted sharply, with oil prices surging nearly 20% and the S&P 500 has entered the correct phase the computer projected. Trump has been suckered into this quagmire and there is no victory on the horizon. A leaked White House document acknowledges that military strikes have achieved tactical but NOT strategic success. It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to win this war from the air. The Neocons know that Trump does not like to lose and will use this character trait against him to send in boots on the ground. They do not care how many soldiers die and they will always lie just to win like the Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Iran has issued its own ultimatums:
To international shipping nations: Allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz only if they expel U.S. and Israeli diplomats
To Azerbaijan: “Expel the Zionists” from its territory or face military consequences—a demand Baku has rejected as a violation of international law.
These moves reflect a broader pattern of using diplomatic and economic leverage amid military vulnerability, with Tehran attempting to shift pressure onto global powers while maintaining a defiant posture. The US now stands to risk the entire Middle East and this war will by no means be short and sweet.
Every empire in decline has a moment where it CHOOSES between strategic restraint (accept limits, preserve strength) and imperial overreach (one more war to prove dominance). Rome chose overreach (endless Germanic wars, Persian campaigns) → collapse. Britain chose restraint (post-WWII, liquidated empire peacefully) → survived as smaller power. USSR chose overreach (Afghanistan) → collapsed. The U.S. is at that choice point RIGHT NOW. Iraq and Afghanistan were warnings. Iran is the test. Choose overreach → follow Rome and USSR into history’s graveyard. Choose restraint → painful but survivable transition to multipolar world. The cycles are clear. The choice is ours. The Neocons always choose power, never wisely. Israel is making the same fatal mistake. Its future looks grim post-2028 for it is always the arrogance of power that ensures history buries all such empires in a common grave.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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