Posted originally on Jul 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Iran has issued a warning that key airports and ports in the United Arab Emirates should be evacuated if the United States launches further strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. The statement, carried by Iranian media, specifically mentioned Dubai International Airport, Abu Dhabi International Airport, Fujairah Port and Jebel Ali Port. The warning comes amid escalating military exchanges between Washington and Tehran, raising fresh concerns over the security of critical Gulf transport and trade hubs. UAE authorities and the United States have not officially responded to the latest remarks.
Military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rezaei, stated that if U.S. attacks continue, Iran will move from retaliatory strikes to an “offensive and destructive” phase, potentially deploying ground forces and expanding the war’s scope.
Posted originally on Jul 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Thank you so much for your article on the private blog. You give the details and behind-the-scenes view that others have no idea about at all. You had forecast back in 2018 that Iran reached a major turning point that would escalate their militant posture. That forecast was on point. Do you see any options here for the US regarding Iran?
Jim
ANSWER: The 2018 marked a significant turning point where Iran adopted a more confrontational and militant posture. This shift was primarily a direct response to the US decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal and re-impose crippling sanctions, which fundamentally altered the strategic landscape for Tehran. That was the most significant shift. President Donald Trump’s announcement in May 2018 that the U.S. was withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This move was met with defiance from Iran and set the stage for a series of militant escalations. The US argued the deal was flawed for not addressing Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional influence, while Iran viewed the withdrawal as a breach of international trust.
In response to US pressure and the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, only saw that Iran took several actions demonstrating a more militant and defiant stance. In August 2018, Iran’s Defense Minister declared that developing the country’s missile program was the nation’s “top priority,” and they announced plans to unveil a new fighter jet. This was a clear signal that they would not be deterred by United States sanctions aimed at curbing their military capabilities. They are historically a proud nation.
In September 2018, President Hassan Rouhani publicly stated that Iran would “never decrease our defensive capabilities” and would increase them “day by day,” specifically pointing to their missile program as a key source of national strength that angered the West. From their perspective, they saw disarming was unacceptable when Israel would not take the path. That would be like the USA abandoning all nuclear weapons without a corresponding action by Russia and China.
Iran’s military leadership urged the formation of a regional coalition involving Russia, Syria, Pakistan, and Iraq to stand against what they saw as a US-led coalition, including Saudi Arabia and Israel. This signaled a move to consolidate opposition against United States influence in the region. This confirmed our model’s forecast for a change in trend in 2018.
While ruling out the possibility of a direct military conflict with the USA at the time, Iran’s top leaders stressed the need for its armed forces to remain vigilant and boost their capabilities. The nation also showed a willingness to resist the economic pressure from sanctions by developing domestic mechanisms to bypass them.
The Paradox of a Regime That Can’t Afford Peace
Iran’s state media reported about 600 vessels taking part in a Gulf naval drill in September 2018, with Iran vowing a “pounding reply” awaited its enemies, showcasing its military readiness. At the time, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei downplayed the likelihood of a full-scale military conflict in 2018. However, the overall actions and rhetoric from Iran, from prioritizing military development to forming regional alliances, was clearly indicating a shift toward a more militant and defiant posture in response to US economic pressure.
As our model warns, we are in the final up-leg of Iran, where we are likely to see the overthrow of the government in 2027. However, between then and now, the government is fighting for its survival domestically between a division politically, which implies that the hardliners will become more authoritarian. This trend is by no means unique to just Iran. We are witnessing political divergences everywhere and we move into 2028 with a deepening economic recessionary contraction.
There are only three options for Trump. First, he washes his hands and walks away. That does not seem plausible. Second, he escalates bombing military targets and infrastructure, hoping to bring them back to the table, which I do not see working for the reasons provided on the Private Blog. The last and THIRD option is all-out war with a grand-scale invasion putting boots on the ground. That would be political suicide.
This is already the most unpopular war the Neocons have orchestrated. Some 68% of Americans now believe the Iran war is “not worth fighting.” Overall, 69% of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the president’s handling of the situation in Iran. These figures indicate that opposition to the war in Iran is very high, reaching levels exceeding those on Vietnam. I was 18 at the time, so I remember. By May 1971, a Gallup poll found that 61% of Americans believed it was a mistake to have sent troops to fight in Vietnam. By every measure, this war is THE MOST UNPOPULAR in American history.
Iran is well aware of the political divisions within the United States. Back in 1979, this revolutionary government understood taking the American hostages was a powerful political tool. The timing was a deliberate and final humiliation for President Jimmy Carter, who had devoted enormous effort to securing the hostages’ release but was defeated in the November 1980 election by Ronald Reagan. By releasing them at the exact moment Carter was leaving office, Iran was seen as denying him a final political victory and symbolically elevating the incoming president. Do not underestimate them. They are playing 3-d Political Chess.
Netanyahu and his Neocon cohorts have thoroughly screwed the United States this time. They always assume they win just because the US has the largest military. The decision to fund the Iraq War entirely through borrowing had a unique impact. By 2023, interest payments on the war debt were absorbing roughly $250 billion per year in servicing costs. Unlike previous major U.S. conflicts, which were partly paid for by raising taxes, this approach ensured the war would continue to add to the national debt for decades, as the government is still paying off the principal and the interest that has accumulated. It was the reckless spending of the Neocons for Vietnam that brought down the gold standard and Bretton Woods. This Neocon War will undermine the American economy going into 2028 and their recklessness will ensure that the title of the Financial Capital of the World will shift to China after 2032. This is the computer forecast, not my personal opinion.
Posted originally on Jul 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, you are the only one who reports the truth about Ukraine. We have major protests going on against our fake leader. Here is a video that the Western press will never report. We took to the streets in the tens of thousands in Kyiv and other cities on July 16 and again on the 17 for a second straight day to protest President Zelensky’s decision to dismiss Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov while retaining Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The corruption is in the open.
We came out a second day after Zelensky said on the first day that he “understands, hears, and responds” to public concerns. However, those are words only for the media, since he ignored calls to reverse the dismissal. Please, tell the world we have no right to vote and Zelensky ignores the people. We live in a dictatorship.
VS
REPLY: I fully understand. The West does not care about the Ukrainian people. If they did, they would demand Zelensky stand for an election and seek peace by just honoring the Minsk Agreement that Ukraine signed. This has always been about using the Ukrainian people as cannon fodder to weaken Russia so NATO can invade and deliver the final death blow to Russia.
Posted originally on Jul 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Mel K’s Infiltration Instead of Invasion dives into the unelected power structures that are reshaping the United States and the rest of the world. These unelected people infiltrate governments and push their own personal agendas. They will never run for office because they would never gain the votes to do what they want to carry out. Mel draws on declassified records, financial archives, and diplomatic correspondence, to expose what is going on behind the curtain that the press will never expose. Infiltration Instead of Invasion examines the true origins of global institutions such as the United Nations, the Bretton Woods system, and the Bank for International Settlements. She explains how immunity, secrecy, and technocracy have replaced sovereignty and transparency. What emerged was not a conspiracy, but a system: a postwar shadow government designed to endure beyond administrations, ideology, or public will.
Posted originally on Jul 19, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Marty, if anyone has the truth about Iran, it is you. What do you make of this leaked document that they press claims reflects regime change in the wind? I believe your computer was forecasting that the Iranian government would change, but I think that was in 2027. Do you have an update on that as well?
Neil
ANSWER: Despite widespread calls for wartime unity across Iran, the weeklong grand funeral for Ali Khamenei, killed by the targeted assassination of Netanyahu in an ignominious act late February in Israeli airstrikes coordinated with the United States, became a powerful showcase for the Islamic Republic’s most hardline supporters. This foolish idea of Netanyahu of assassinating the leader and expecting the end of the war only demonstrates the stupidity of Netanyahu for he always takes this tactic and it has failed every time. During the funeral period for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Trump stated that “neither side should carry out military actions” and that talks with Iran would resume after the ceremonies concluded. This was a general call for restraint during the mourning period, and sources confirm it was directed at Netanyahu.
This has painted the Trump Administration as the great satan with Israel for such a dishonorable act. This has led to dividing the politics within Iran. The hardliners calling for the assassination of Trump should be seen as an eye for and eye established by the legal code of Hammurabi.
They used the occasion to amplify demands to avenge their leader through renewed war with Washington and to declare their rejection of any agreement with Trump. The leaked document was part of a silent soft coup within the Iranian government. As I have always said, no government has 100% of supporters. There are always two sides to every coin.
This is NOT about the government study of the people. This was leaked by the anti-hardliners. As Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian walked by the coffin of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, some of the hardliners began chanting at him, saying “death to the compromiser.” Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s top diplomat who negotiated a ceasefire with the Trump administration lifting some sanctions on the Islamic Republic, fled the funeral when a mob began throwing stones at him and screaming death chants accusing him of being a “traitorous sellout.”
This leak was not about showing that the Iranian people would stage some coup, it was leaked by the moderates in government who want a deal and have been attacked by the hardliners who believe in avenging Khamenei’s assassination, and the Iranian officials who have surrendered by signing an agreement that they interpret as defying the orders of Ali Khamenei and his successor Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son. But Mojtaba Khamenei has remained hidden from public view, neither addressing the nation directly nor visibly asserting his authority.
Hardliners have accused Iran’s visible leadership of treason and plotting to consolidate power by suspending parliament, defying the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei orders in negotiations while breaking up rallies of opposition. The hardliners portray this as a coup against the principles of the Islamic State.
Without access to the new supreme leader, hardliners are spinning the idea that he is captive of those seeking a settlement with the USA. They are pitching that Ghalibaf and allies are effectively in charge of the country – not Mojtaba Khamenei. This is the real political crisis inside Iran and this leak is less about the people than it is about the internal battle between the moderates and the ultra-hardliners who are accusing Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian of plotting a ‘coup’ against Mojtaba.
Mahmoud Nabavian, a Shia cleric, who was part of Iran’s negotiating delegation before turning against the talks and attempted to derail the agreement by leaking the text to the media before it was signed last month. He claimed that Iran’s negotiating team were defying the supreme leader’s orders.
Since the beginning of the ceasefire, they have consistently opposed the very concept of negotiation. Before the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States was signed, Hossein Sotoudeh, a prominent voice, sang in one of his tracks: “We all seek vengeance, we are on this path; men and women, we are in the army of Assadullah (the Lion of God). This is our slogan until the end of the world: we want no negotiation with the illegitimate ones.” The song emphasized that “we will not back down,” urged the “Commander” to “not let them talk nonsense, strike again and strike well,” and dismissed the ceasefire as “meaningless.”
In the weeks before hostilities broke out, hardliners turned their fury on the leaders who signed the deal with the US. Mohammad Ali Bakhshi, a security-linked “Maddah” – or religious singer who is loyal to the Iranian regime – warned Pezeshkian during a ceremony: “Mr President, if the leader’s conditions are not fulfilled, then it will be us, the blade and your throat …We will bring hell upon you.”
The open threat to kill the president was widely criticized, but Bakhshi is not known to have faced any legal repercussions.
Other officials under hardline scrutiny include Iran’s chief negotiator with the US, Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander with deep political experience whose credentials enabled him to step up and take charge during the war, emerging as the regime’s de-facto lead operator with broad acceptability.
“They are trying to elevate the role of the Supreme Council for National Security while diminishing the role of the supreme leader and parliament,” Kamran Ghazanfari, a hardline parliamentarian, said in a video statement early July, referring to the council now deciding the country’s most sensitive wartime affairs. “This is the political coup they have designed and are carrying out step by step.”
I was actually asked, how did I know Iran would block the straight? My reply: How did you not know? There were war simulations conducted years ago and every one had Iran taking the strait. Trump received the WORST possible advice and Netanyahu was escorted into the Situation Room where no head of state ever entered before to sell a war to the USA. This implies to me that this is another Neocon endless war for world domination. It was sold that killing the Ayatolah would end the war in a day, the people would rise up, thank Trump and give Netanyahu a tickertape parade. They sang the same tune regarding Iraq.
So let’s get real. The Neocons are spinning this that the people need to be saved. That is the same BS that used in Iraq, and Obama tried to justify invading Syria. This is NOT about the people, this is a coup within the government and it was leaked by the moderates as a ploy against the hardliners.
Posted originally on Jul 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The White House has now released a series of declassified election-integrity documents that the administration says expose what it describes as the largest compromise of American voter data in history. The release followed President Trump’s heated nationally televised address Thursday night, where he argued that China systematically acquired sensitive voter information during the 2020 election cycle and that intelligence surrounding the operation was buried inside the bureaucracy rather than presented honestly to elected leadership.
For years, the focus has been on Russia while China quietly expanded its economic, technological, and intelligence footprint throughout the West. China does not think in election cycles. It thinks in decades as the ancient culture understands cycles. Every major strategic objective is pursued patiently through economic leverage, technology, data collection, academia, corporations, and political influence. Elections become merely another avenue for intelligence gathering and long-term strategic positioning.
According to the newly released material highlighted by the White House, Chinese actors allegedly obtained information on roughly 220 million American voter records. The administration claims the information included voter registration data, addresses, party affiliation, and other identifying information that could be used to map voting populations across the United States. President Trump described it as “the largest compromise of election data in history” and ordered further investigations into both the alleged intrusion and the government’s handling of the intelligence.
The administration further alleges that portions of this intelligence never reached the President in full during the 2020 election cycle and that internal disputes inside the intelligence community resulted in information being minimized or withheld. Those claims are now at the center of renewed investigations following the release of the declassified files.
Whether every allegation ultimately withstands scrutiny is now the question investigators must answer. It is important to distinguish between allegations contained in newly released documents and conclusions that have been independently established. Previous U.S. intelligence assessments issued after the 2020 election concluded they did not find evidence that China successfully altered votes or election infrastructure, although there has long been bipartisan concern over Chinese cyber activity and influence operations. Those earlier conclusions are directly challenged by the current administration’s interpretation of the newly declassified material.
That distinction should not cause anyone to dismiss the broader strategic issue. China has spent decades collecting enormous quantities of American information through cyber intrusions, intellectual property theft, social media platforms, telecommunications equipment, academic partnerships, and commercial acquisitions. Election databases would simply represent another valuable intelligence asset. Data itself has become one of the most valuable commodities in modern geopolitical warfare.
What concerns me is not merely who may have obtained voter information. It is how dependent Western governments have become upon digital infrastructure that was never designed with national security as the first priority. Every database becomes another target. Every connected system becomes another avenue for foreign intelligence services. We have built societies where governments, corporations, financial institutions, and election officials increasingly rely upon centralized digital records while assuming those systems remain secure. That assumption has repeatedly proven false.
The computer has consistently shown that confidence is always the foundation of government. Once public confidence in institutions begins to crack, the damage extends far beyond a single election. Markets depend upon confidence. Governments depend upon confidence. Currencies depend upon confidence. Election systems are no different. Regardless of where these investigations ultimately lead, confidence cannot be restored through secrecy. If foreign governments penetrated American election-related databases, the public deserves complete transparency. If they did not, the evidence should be equally transparent. Suppressing information only guarantees that confidence continues to erode.
China understands something many Western politicians still fail to grasp. Modern warfare is no longer confined to missiles and tanks. Information, data, artificial intelligence, cyber operations, financial leverage, and political influence have become the new battlefield. Nations that fail to recognize that reality will discover they have already lost long before the first conventional shot is fired.
I have said from the beginning that this war could never be won on the battlefield. Politicians sold the public the fantasy that Russia would collapse under sanctions, that Putin would be overthrown, or that Ukraine would somehow achieve total military victory if only another weapons package were approved. Four years later, none of those predictions materialized. Instead, Europe has spent hundreds of billions financing a war that has devastated Ukraine while simultaneously damaging its own economy.
What Bulgaria understands is something Brussels still refuses to admit. Every euro sent to Ukraine is borrowed money. Europe is already drowning in sovereign debt while governments are increasing military spending to levels not seen since the Cold War. They continue talking about rebuilding armies, expanding missile production, and preparing for conflict with Russia while their own economies stagnate. At some point voters begin asking why there is always money for war but never enough to lower taxes, repair infrastructure, or reduce the soaring cost of living.
This is exactly what our computer has been warning would happen. Wars are never lost simply because one army wins a battle. They collapse because the coalition financing the war begins to disintegrate. Every alliance eventually reaches a breaking point when the economic burden becomes greater than the political benefit. Bulgaria is unlikely to be the last country to reconsider its position.
The establishment immediately labels anyone seeking negotiations as “pro-Russian.” That has become the standard response whenever someone questions the wisdom of endless war. Radev rejected that characterization by arguing that diplomacy, not continued military escalation, offers the only realistic path to ending the conflict. His position reflects a growing reality across Europe that endless military aid has failed to produce the decisive victory repeatedly promised to taxpayers.
Meanwhile, Europe continues demanding more sacrifices from everyone except the politicians making these decisions. Defense budgets are expanding. Governments are discussing conscription once again. Ukraine has resorted to forced mobilization, with countless videos showing military recruitment officers dragging men off the streets in broad daylight, pulling them from shopping centers, buses, restaurants, and workplaces. I have written repeatedly that once a government begins kidnapping its own citizens to sustain a war effort, it is admitting that voluntary support has collapsed. Europe is now moving even further by discussing refugee policies that would make it harder for military-aged Ukrainian men to remain abroad instead of being sent back into the conflict.
Only days ago, members of the Coalition of the Willing met in Paris to discuss expanding military cooperation, increasing financial commitments, and even developing a shared European ballistic missile defense system. The political class continues speaking as though escalation is the only acceptable path while one of its own members has now publicly walked away from the project. That is not unity. That is the first visible crack in the foundation.
Our computer has never viewed this conflict as merely a war between Russia and Ukraine. It has always been a broader geopolitical struggle that would ultimately reshape Europe itself. The sovereign debt crisis, the energy crisis, the migration crisis, and now the military crisis are all converging. Governments believe they can hold this coalition together indefinitely, but history suggests otherwise. Every alliance eventually fractures under the weight of prolonged war.
Posted originally on Jul 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Politicians can point to a lower inflation report, but they cannot explain why Americans are standing in grocery aisles putting food back on the shelf. CNBC reports that consumers are spending less on groceries, forcing companies like PepsiCo, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Campbell’s, and Conagra to slash prices and rely on promotions simply to move inventory. Millions have reached the point where every trip to the store has become an exercise in deciding what they can live without.
The numbers tell a much darker story than the headlines. Americans now owe roughly $1.25 trillion in credit card debt, the highest level ever recorded. The average credit card balance has climbed above $6,500, while interest rates on many cards remain above 21%. Families who cannot pay their balances in full are watching interest charges consume more of every paycheck. According to recent surveys, roughly one-third of working-age Americans have used credit cards to purchase groceries, and millions are carrying that grocery debt month after month because they simply do not have another option.
This is no longer simply inflation. It has become a cost-of-living crisis. A family may technically still have a job, but that job no longer buys the same standard of living it did only a few years ago. Housing costs remain near record highs, auto insurance premiums continue climbing, utility bills have increased substantially, healthcare consumes a larger share of household income, and groceries cost far more than they did before inflation exploded. Slower inflation does not undo years of rising prices. It simply means the rate of increase has moderated while families continue living with the cumulative damage.
The Department of Agriculture is hardly forecasting relief. Food prices are expected to continue rising through 2026. Beef prices alone are projected to increase another 7.5% as the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its smallest size in roughly seventy-five years. Fresh vegetables are forecast to rise 7.7%, sugar and sweets nearly 7%, nonalcoholic beverages about 5.7%, while restaurant prices are expected to continue climbing as labor and operating costs remain elevated.
People continue pointing to overall retail sales as proof that consumers remain healthy. June retail sales rose only 0.2%, exactly as expected. Strip away gasoline prices, which temporarily declined because of the brief ceasefire in the Middle East, and some categories appear stronger. Yet those numbers hide an important shift. Consumers are becoming far more disciplined with necessities while selectively spending on promotions and discount events such as Amazon Prime Day. That is not confidence. That is adaptation.
Food prices themselves have hardly disappeared as a problem. The USDA continues forecasting overall food prices to rise another 3.2% this year. Grocery prices are expected to increase roughly 2.8%, while restaurant prices are projected to climb an even faster 3.6%. Several categories remain under significant pressure. Beef prices are expected to rise 7.5% during 2026 as the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in roughly seventy-five years. Fresh vegetables are forecast to increase 7.7%, sugar and sweets nearly 7%, and nonalcoholic beverages about 5.7%. Consumers may find bargains on certain processed foods, but the underlying trend remains one of rising food costs.
Consumers are adapting because they have little choice. Delinquencies on credit cards have risen sharply over the past two years, and Americans are increasingly financing everyday necessities instead of discretionary purchases. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently reported that serious credit card delinquencies continue trending higher, particularly among younger borrowers, while total household debt has climbed above $18 trillion. Those are not the characteristics of a healthy consumer.
Households are sending a message that economists often miss because it never appears in a government report. When people begin treating groceries as a luxury rather than a routine purchase, they are telling you confidence has already deteriorated. The statistics may take months to reflect that change. Consumers make those adjustments immediately.
The grocery cart has always been one of the best economic indicators because families cannot manipulate it. They either have the purchasing power to buy what they want, or they don’t. Increasingly, Americans are answering that question every time they walk into a supermarket.
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