I have said from the beginning that this war could never be won on the battlefield. Politicians sold the public the fantasy that Russia would collapse under sanctions, that Putin would be overthrown, or that Ukraine would somehow achieve total military victory if only another weapons package were approved. Four years later, none of those predictions materialized. Instead, Europe has spent hundreds of billions financing a war that has devastated Ukraine while simultaneously damaging its own economy.
What Bulgaria understands is something Brussels still refuses to admit. Every euro sent to Ukraine is borrowed money. Europe is already drowning in sovereign debt while governments are increasing military spending to levels not seen since the Cold War. They continue talking about rebuilding armies, expanding missile production, and preparing for conflict with Russia while their own economies stagnate. At some point voters begin asking why there is always money for war but never enough to lower taxes, repair infrastructure, or reduce the soaring cost of living.
This is exactly what our computer has been warning would happen. Wars are never lost simply because one army wins a battle. They collapse because the coalition financing the war begins to disintegrate. Every alliance eventually reaches a breaking point when the economic burden becomes greater than the political benefit. Bulgaria is unlikely to be the last country to reconsider its position.
The establishment immediately labels anyone seeking negotiations as “pro-Russian.” That has become the standard response whenever someone questions the wisdom of endless war. Radev rejected that characterization by arguing that diplomacy, not continued military escalation, offers the only realistic path to ending the conflict. His position reflects a growing reality across Europe that endless military aid has failed to produce the decisive victory repeatedly promised to taxpayers.
Meanwhile, Europe continues demanding more sacrifices from everyone except the politicians making these decisions. Defense budgets are expanding. Governments are discussing conscription once again. Ukraine has resorted to forced mobilization, with countless videos showing military recruitment officers dragging men off the streets in broad daylight, pulling them from shopping centers, buses, restaurants, and workplaces. I have written repeatedly that once a government begins kidnapping its own citizens to sustain a war effort, it is admitting that voluntary support has collapsed. Europe is now moving even further by discussing refugee policies that would make it harder for military-aged Ukrainian men to remain abroad instead of being sent back into the conflict.
Only days ago, members of the Coalition of the Willing met in Paris to discuss expanding military cooperation, increasing financial commitments, and even developing a shared European ballistic missile defense system. The political class continues speaking as though escalation is the only acceptable path while one of its own members has now publicly walked away from the project. That is not unity. That is the first visible crack in the foundation.
Our computer has never viewed this conflict as merely a war between Russia and Ukraine. It has always been a broader geopolitical struggle that would ultimately reshape Europe itself. The sovereign debt crisis, the energy crisis, the migration crisis, and now the military crisis are all converging. Governments believe they can hold this coalition together indefinitely, but history suggests otherwise. Every alliance eventually fractures under the weight of prolonged war.
Posted originally on Jul 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Politicians can point to a lower inflation report, but they cannot explain why Americans are standing in grocery aisles putting food back on the shelf. CNBC reports that consumers are spending less on groceries, forcing companies like PepsiCo, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Campbell’s, and Conagra to slash prices and rely on promotions simply to move inventory. Millions have reached the point where every trip to the store has become an exercise in deciding what they can live without.
The numbers tell a much darker story than the headlines. Americans now owe roughly $1.25 trillion in credit card debt, the highest level ever recorded. The average credit card balance has climbed above $6,500, while interest rates on many cards remain above 21%. Families who cannot pay their balances in full are watching interest charges consume more of every paycheck. According to recent surveys, roughly one-third of working-age Americans have used credit cards to purchase groceries, and millions are carrying that grocery debt month after month because they simply do not have another option.
This is no longer simply inflation. It has become a cost-of-living crisis. A family may technically still have a job, but that job no longer buys the same standard of living it did only a few years ago. Housing costs remain near record highs, auto insurance premiums continue climbing, utility bills have increased substantially, healthcare consumes a larger share of household income, and groceries cost far more than they did before inflation exploded. Slower inflation does not undo years of rising prices. It simply means the rate of increase has moderated while families continue living with the cumulative damage.
The Department of Agriculture is hardly forecasting relief. Food prices are expected to continue rising through 2026. Beef prices alone are projected to increase another 7.5% as the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its smallest size in roughly seventy-five years. Fresh vegetables are forecast to rise 7.7%, sugar and sweets nearly 7%, nonalcoholic beverages about 5.7%, while restaurant prices are expected to continue climbing as labor and operating costs remain elevated.
People continue pointing to overall retail sales as proof that consumers remain healthy. June retail sales rose only 0.2%, exactly as expected. Strip away gasoline prices, which temporarily declined because of the brief ceasefire in the Middle East, and some categories appear stronger. Yet those numbers hide an important shift. Consumers are becoming far more disciplined with necessities while selectively spending on promotions and discount events such as Amazon Prime Day. That is not confidence. That is adaptation.
Food prices themselves have hardly disappeared as a problem. The USDA continues forecasting overall food prices to rise another 3.2% this year. Grocery prices are expected to increase roughly 2.8%, while restaurant prices are projected to climb an even faster 3.6%. Several categories remain under significant pressure. Beef prices are expected to rise 7.5% during 2026 as the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in roughly seventy-five years. Fresh vegetables are forecast to increase 7.7%, sugar and sweets nearly 7%, and nonalcoholic beverages about 5.7%. Consumers may find bargains on certain processed foods, but the underlying trend remains one of rising food costs.
Consumers are adapting because they have little choice. Delinquencies on credit cards have risen sharply over the past two years, and Americans are increasingly financing everyday necessities instead of discretionary purchases. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently reported that serious credit card delinquencies continue trending higher, particularly among younger borrowers, while total household debt has climbed above $18 trillion. Those are not the characteristics of a healthy consumer.
Households are sending a message that economists often miss because it never appears in a government report. When people begin treating groceries as a luxury rather than a routine purchase, they are telling you confidence has already deteriorated. The statistics may take months to reflect that change. Consumers make those adjustments immediately.
The grocery cart has always been one of the best economic indicators because families cannot manipulate it. They either have the purchasing power to buy what they want, or they don’t. Increasingly, Americans are answering that question every time they walk into a supermarket.
Posted originally on Jul 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
Finland has built an underground network beneath Helsinki capable of sheltering nearly one million people. Let that sink in. Nearly one million people. This is not a handful of bomb shelters scattered throughout the city, but rather an underground city stretching beneath the capital, consisting of more than 5,500 reinforced shelters connected by tunnels carved directly into solid granite. They can be converted from civilian use into military-grade protection in as little as 72 hours.
Engineered to withstand explosions, chemical attacks, biological threats, radiation, and the collapse of the world above. The shelters contain independent power systems, water supplies, communications networks, hospitals, sanitation, filtration systems, and enough infrastructure to sustain life if the surface becomes uninhabitable. During peacetime, they function as swimming pools, hockey arenas, churches, sports centers, parking garages, and shopping facilities.
Ask yourself a very simple question. Who spends decades and billions of dollars constructing an underground city unless they genuinely believe it may one day be needed?
Finland is not building these shelters because of some passing political disagreement with Moscow. The country shares an 830-mile border with Russia and has never forgotten the Winter War. Unlike much of Europe, Finland never embraced the fantasy that major wars had become impossible. While politicians across Europe dismantled civil defense, reduced their militaries, and diverted spending toward every fashionable political cause imaginable, Finland kept digging.
Today, nearly 4.8 million shelter spaces exist for a nation of just 5.6 million people. Very few countries on Earth have anything remotely comparable. That means Finland has spent generations preparing to keep the overwhelming majority of its population alive during the unthinkable. Governments do not invest on that scale because they expect peace.
Finland is probably not the exception. It is simply one of the few countries honest enough to admit what it has been doing. Across Europe, governments are quietly rebuilding civil defense systems, expanding military production, discussing conscription, increasing defense budgets, and warning citizens to prepare emergency food, water, medicine, batteries, and cash. Every policy points in the same direction. They are preparing society for prolonged conflict.
Our computer has warned that the years ahead would not resemble the decades people have grown comfortable living through. The sovereign debt crisis was always destined to evolve into geopolitical conflict because governments eventually turn outward when they can no longer solve problems at home. History has followed that pattern for thousands of years. Debt leads to instability. Instability leads to political desperation. Political desperation ultimately leads to war.
The frightening reality is that governments never announce the danger while they are preparing for it. They reassure the public until the very last moment because panic becomes another enemy to manage. By the time officials openly admit the risks, it is usually far too late to begin preparing.
Finland’s underground city is more than an engineering achievement. It is a message written in concrete and granite. It says that one government believes there is a realistic possibility that nearly one million people may someday have to disappear beneath the earth simply to survive. That should concern every person in Europe far more than another reassuring speech from politicians claiming everything is under control.
Posted originally on Jul 17, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
I have received numerous emails asking if Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are attempting to frustrate Trump to prevent him from exiting the Iran War to influence the Midterms by refusing to sign the defense bill for the first time in history. The Democrats under Schummer are clearly trying to prolong the Iran war to discredit Trump for the Midterms. Politics has become simply a political war. This is no longer about what is good for the country including the troops. If one side says the sky is blue, the other must argue it is red even when it is yellow.
Some argue that the Democrats are actively trying to end the war, not prolong it. A “war powers resolution” was introduced by Democrats to force the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iran unless Congress approved further action. That has nothing to do with the actual war, it is simply to embarrass Trump. While this measure failed along party lines as they expected, it does not show that the Democratic party’s official position is against the conflict since they know that would help Trump. It was intended to show that Trump and the Republicans wanted this war.
Without question, this war is already unpopular and harming the administration. The Democrats smell blood. The conflict has been used to push for the “No Kings” rallies and is widely seen as a “political liability” for President Trump and the Republicans in the Midterms. They clearly are trying to prevent any quick and “honorable” way out of a conflict that they argue was initially based on a “misjudgment” with no exit strategy.
The administration’s reasons for the war are disputed by the Democrats. Multiple sources suggest the war’s origins were not tied to nuclear threats (which U.S. intelligence found no evidence of) but rather to a complex mix of factors. These include pressure from the Israeli lobby, while Netanyahu was escorted into the Situation Room where no other foreign leader ever stepped foot selling the war as if it would be like Venezuela. The public’s lack of understanding of the war’s purpose is cited as a key reason for its unpopularity. This is why the Democrats are not interested in any quick or honorable solution before the Midterms. The Democrats have also put out there that Trump desires to seize Iran’s oil, and to distract from the Epstein scandal.
The Democrats are prolonging the war for political gain, as they paint a picture of a conflict that is hurting the American people, with Democrats actively opposing even funding the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). it and the public broadly turning against it. The NDAA is typically passed on a bipartisan basis each year. Not this time. This is typical Schummer.
Moreover, there is publicly documented meetings between Senator Chuck Schumer and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Schumer has regularly participated in official delegations, leadership briefings, and diplomatic events where Israeli leaders are typically present. I have been unable to confirm a private sit-down meeting this year, the two have been mentioned in the same context recently. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress in July 2024 was notably boycotted by Senator Schumer for public a show ONLY, where he tried to pretend opposition to Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza.
Senator Chuck Schumer and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had interaction in February 2025 with an official meeting in Washington, D.C. The two were photographed together at the U.S. Capitol with other congressional leaders. However, on July 24th, 2024, Netanyahu’s address to a joint meeting of Congress Senator Schumer attended the speech but had an “awkward” interaction with the prime minister, choosing not to shake his hand as a public statement of his opposition to his policies in Gaza.
To illustrate the political BS of Schummer, while he publicly refused to shake Netanyahu’s hand in the public ceremony, a photograph and video released by Netanyahu’s office showed them shaking hands during a private meeting held before the speech. This suggests the public refusal was a calculated political gesture to send a message to the American public that was false.
Nonetheless, it is expected that Senator Schumer will be part of a bipartisan congressional delegation traveling to Israel for in-person meetings with Prime Minister Netanyahu and other leaders. Additionally, he has participated in calls with Israeli President Isaac Herzog alongside other senators. Schummer has supported the “ironclad” relationship between US and Israel. It has been suggested that Netanyahu knows that frustrating Trump could lead to a Democratic victory as long as he prevents any honorable peace deal before November. We cannot confirm such a conspiracy. We can only judge by the words and deeds.
Posted originally on Jul 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Marty, I just had to reach out and thank you for putting on this conference and sharing what you’ve learned over the course of your career. I know which university asked you to teach—and that you turned them down. I couldn’t help but notice that one chapter will be titled “All Governments Are the Same.” I also understand this is a break-even event for you, and that you decided against live streaming due to the cost.
Even though I won’t be able to see you in person this time, my son and daughter will be attending, and I wanted to express my gratitude. So many of us at the WECs have been urging you to do this for a long time. I know you call yourself the “accidental economist,”and that’s exactly what makes you so one of a kind. An FX trader, drafted into the world of geopolitics because theory alone just doesn’t cut it.
Thank you for doing this.
BP
REPLY: You all have made me stop and think: how the hell did I end up here? Life shapes us through experience, turning us into the people we were maybe always meant to become. This was never a path I imagined for myself, but we play the hand we’re dealt.
I’m dedicating this event to Milton Friedman. I was speaking at a trading conference in Chicago about how the world is interconnected, and how currency made that possible. Milton had heard about me and came to listen. After I finished, he walked up, shook my hand, and told me I was doing what he had only ever dreamed of. He had written back in 1953 about how a floating exchange rate system would impose checks and balances on governments, and here I was, traveling the world, dealing with governments over exactly what Milton had envisioned more than thirty years earlier. He then said what I was doing was deeply important, and that I should document it for society.
I have indeed run around the world and dealt with perhaps more governments than anyone. I honestly see no difference. Justice peaks, because as Thrasymachus tried to warn Socrates that justice is the same no matter what form of government exists. It is always their self-interest about retaining power. As they say, you can vote your way into socialism/communism, but you have to shoot your way out. That is the real risk of Mandami in NYC when his ideas fails as they always have.
Plato records the debate between Thrasymachus and Socrates. Thrasymachus didn’t frame his argument as a “warning” to Socrates so much as a cynical confrontation. His core claim, that rulers simply make laws to serve their own interests, inherently applies to any form of government, including a democracy.
Thrasymachus explicitly includes democracy in his analysis. He doesn’t single it out; he gives it as one of the prime examples of his theory in action. He states that in a democracy, the “ruling masses” (the democratic majority) pass and enforce laws that are to their own advantage.
Thrasymachus was saying there was “no difference in justice” under a democracy. For Thrasymachus, the only thing that changes is who is exploiting the system for their own benefit. In a tyranny, it’s the tyrant; in an aristocracy, it’s the aristocrats; and in a democracy, it’s the democratic majority. The fundamental principle, that “justice” is a tool used by the powerful to justify their own advantage, remains exactly the same.
Thucydides (the Melian Dialogue) also informed us that “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” To a large extent, the Marxists did come to argue that justice is seen as a tool of the ruling class. On that point, I cannot disagree. Law has always been used for political purposes.
Jacob Coxey was arrested for walking on the grass of the U.S. Capitol. This arrest occurred on May 1, 1894, after he led a protest march of unemployed workers known as “Coxey’s Army” to Washington D.C. to demand government jobs to alleviate the Panic of 1893 depression.
The arrest was based on a law that forbade public assemblies and processions on the Capitol grounds, and Coxey was charged with the specific violation of “walking on the grass.” Along with Coxey, two of his lieutenants, Carl Browne and Christopher Columbus Jones, were also arrested.
The United States has more people in prison than Europe, Russia, or China, yet we pretend to be the land of liberty and justice for all. Either Americans harbor more criminals than any other society, or we imprison people for political purposes while pretending it is about justice.
I even went through the Berlin Wall in the late ’70s and saw communism first hand. What I am passing on is not theory. It is what Milton came to listen to me deliver at a trading conference in Chicago. How the world is all interconnected. This has huge ramifications for everything from economics to politics.
Those attending will receiver an autographed copy. The printer will have them on time.
Posted originally on CTH on July 16, 2026 | Sundance
Tonight at 9:00pm ET, President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a statement about U.S. election security to the nation. DNI Bill Pulte together with SGE John Solomon have prepared the intelligence information for President Trump to declassify and release to the American people.
There are a reported 11 million pages of information within the intelligence files that may be released. There is tremendous interest as Democrats and media have been proactively dismissing the release of intelligence information surrounding the 2020 election. Livestream Links Below:
Posted originally on CTH on July 16, 2026 | Sundance
Previously, Mark Carney and the Canadian govt famously fired Air Canada’s CEO because he shamefully didn’t speak French. This week he hired American, Maia Johnson, as his Chief Operations Officer (COO), she also doesn’t speak French and the Canadians are perplexed.
Hired by Prime Minister Mark Carney, the role of Democrat party operative and former Michael Bloomberg associate, Maia Johnson, seems directly related to the strategy of leveraging U.S. Democrat resistance against the CUSMA (USMCA) termination.
[Note: Mark Carney and Michael Bloomberg connect through their banking and finance network with prior associations. This relationship also connects to U.K Mayor Andy Burnham who is likely to become the next U.K Prime Minister to replace Keir Starmer.]
Readers to CTH likely remember in 2018 former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leveraged Democrat House Leader Nancy Pelosi to regain position in the USMCA negotiations (NAFTA elimination) with USTR Robert Lighthizer.
It appears that Carney is attempting a similar maneuver through the connections of Democrat operative Maia Johnson.
Specifically, because positioning American resistance to the CUSMA (USMCA) termination is a key part of the Carney strategy, a COO from U.S. Democrat politics is the best strategic approach. A Canadian in that role would be of far lesser value.
TORONTO SUN– […] This week, it was reported that Carney was promoting a woman unknown to most Canadians to the position of chief operating officer in the PMO.
It appears to be a first for Canada to have a COO in the PMO, but it’s who the woman is that is truly interesting.
Maia Johnson is currently listed in the government employee directory as Carney’s “Senior Advisor, United States Stakeholder Strategy.” That sounds like a job for someone at the Canadian Embassy in Washington, not someone working on Wellington St. in Ottawa.
This is where it gets really interesting, though, because Johnson, the woman advising Carney on how to deal with Donald Trump, is an American and a registered Democrat with ties to the campaigns of Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
In what world does it make sense for Johnson to be a senior advisor on Canada-U.S. relations, never mind be elevated to the position of chief operating officer of Canada’s PMO? (more)
Posted originally on CTH on July 16, 2026 | Sundance
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt holds a White House press briefing from the Brady Room at the White House. Anticipated start time 1:30pm ET with Livestream Links Below:
Posted originally on CTH on July 16, 2026 | Sundance
Today, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting an event with various governments for a Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism. The event focuses on the reemergence of this threat to society and encourages stronger joint action to reinforce frontline defenses and close the gaps the terrorist actors continue to exploit.
As part of the State Department effort, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a remarkable speech to the audience. Within his remarks Rubio outlines the history of left-wing violence and lists current examples of how dangerous this has become. In many ways this is the anti-Obama speech that has long been needed.
This is a moment that can reset how we view terrorism in the 21st century, shifting from a terror-threat focus from Islamic extremism to the more pervasive threat from left-wing political violence. WATCH:
STATE DEPT – […] Far-left political terrorism is resurgent, manifesting in violent terrorist acts across the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Asia and beyond. These are not isolated incidents. They reflect a deliberate, ideologically motivated strategy to destabilize free societies by violently targeting our political and economic systems, including attacks against private citizens, government officials, police and law enforcement, businesses, and critical infrastructure around the globe. For too long, however, this threat has remained a blind spot in the international community’s counterterrorism focus, underestimated and under-resourced, despite the danger it poses.
The United States is taking a leading role in countering far-left terrorism. Since November 2025, the United States has designated four violent far-left groups — Antifa Ost, the Informal Anarchist Federation/International Revolutionary Front (FAI/FRI), Armed Proletarian Justice, and Revolutionary Class Self-Defense — as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists, as well as offered a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of these same four organizations.
In recent months, the United States engaged also law enforcement, counterterrorism professionals, and prosecutors around the globe through direct engagements, as well as the inaugural Counterterrorism Law Enforcement Workshop (CTLEW) in May 2026, which convened 14 countries for a two-day, practitioner-focused workshop to exchange best practices for countering the threat of transnational far-left terrorism.
This Ministerial builds on that foundation, bringing together partners from across the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Asia to expand coordination, enhance information sharing, and strengthen international law enforcement mechanisms to counter the threat. Secretary Rubio will highlight the importance of deepening cooperation with international partners to better map violent activity, disrupt terrorist financing, protect critical infrastructure, and promote collective action against a threat that respects no borders. {SOURCE}
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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