Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The press is reporting that Venezuela is opening its mining sector to American companies, allowing foreign investment to extract gold, diamonds, and rare earth minerals after the National Assembly approved the first step in rewriting the country’s mining laws. The reform extends mining concessions from 20 to 30 years and allows international arbitration in disputes, clearly designed to attract Western capital that had previously been locked out under the old socialist system.
The real story is rare earth minerals and the global race to secure them. Washington has already authorized transactions involving Venezuelan gold through the state mining company Minerven and is working to bring American mining firms into the country. The move comes after the United States began reopening Venezuela’s oil sector to American companies as well, signaling that the real objective is securing access to resources that have become strategically vital.
The deeper issue is that the United States does not control the resources it needs to maintain its technological and military dominance. Rare earth minerals are essential for missiles, fighter jets, radar systems, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. As I have explained before, America’s defense supply chain depends on materials it does not control. That is a serious vulnerability in any geopolitical confrontation.
China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, accounting for the majority of production and refining. In fact, China supplied about 71% of U.S. imports of rare earth compounds and metals in recent years and controls much of the processing capacity for these materials. These minerals are not just another commodity. They are the foundation of modern industrial technology, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and the entire defense sector.
This is why Washington has been quietly pursuing mineral deals around the world. The United States has already secured preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, which include significant deposits of graphite, titanium, lithium, and rare earth metals. Ukraine holds roughly 5% of the world’s critical raw materials, making it strategically important in the mineral race. The mineral agreement between Washington and Kyiv was never just about economic reconstruction. It was about securing long-term access to materials needed for modern industry and military technology.
Japanhas also been drawn into this geopolitical struggle. After China restricted rare earth exports in the past, Tokyo began aggressively diversifying its supply chain and securing new mineral partnerships to reduce dependence on Beijing. The entire world is now scrambling to secure access to the materials that underpin modern technology.
Venezuela now enters that equation. The country is believed to possess significant untapped mineral deposits. If these resources are opened to Western investment, it will provide another potential supply source outside of China’s control. That is why this move is important. It is not about reviving Venezuela’s economy. It is about the strategic mineral competition that is quietly reshaping global politics.
Behind every war and every geopolitical confrontation lies the same fundamental issue – resources. Oil dominated the last century. Rare earths and critical minerals will dominate the next. The United States understands that its technological future depends on securing these materials, and that explains the sudden interest in places like Ukraine and now Venezuela.
The public hears about democracy, sanctions, and diplomacy. But the real game is being played beneath the surface. Control the resources and you control the future of industry, defense, and economic power. Venezuela’s coerced decision to open its mineral wealth is just another move on that global chessboard.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter.
This sudden deceleration is not a small revision. Data signals that economic momentum was already fading before we entered 2026. Consumer spending was revised down significantly, government spending collapsed due to the 43-day shutdown, and exports also declined. The key measure of domestic demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, slowed to just 1.9%, down from 2.9% in the prior quarter.
For the full year, the U.S. economy grew about 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, confirming that the economy has already been losing momentum. When you look at the quarterly pattern, the shift becomes clear. Growth surged at 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3, only to suddenly collapse to less than 1% as we moved into the final months of the year.
At the same time, inflation has not disappeared. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge shows core inflation running around 3.1% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. That means the economy is now slowing while inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
The labor market is also beginning to reflect the shift. Job growth has slowed significantly, and some reports indicate monthly job losses are beginning to appear as businesses become more cautious heading into 2026. When GDP weakens and employment softens simultaneously, it typically signals that the business cycle is turning.
But the bigger issue moving forward is war. The United States and its allies are now entering a major geopolitical conflict environment with the ongoing confrontation involving Iran. Rising oil prices tied to that conflict are already beginning to ripple through the global economy. Energy shocks historically feed directly into inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth.
That is why the coming quarters could become increasingly volatile. Economic growth is already weakening while inflation remains above target. If energy prices surge due to war or supply disruptions, inflation will rise again as the economy slows further. That is the textbook setup for stagflation.
From a cyclical perspective, this aligns with what the Economic Confidence Model has been warning about. The period into 2026 was always expected to be a turning point as capital flows shift globally amid rising geopolitical tension. War has historically been one of the biggest disruptors of economic growth, and once energy prices rise sharply, the ripple effects quickly spread through transportation, manufacturing, and food prices. In other words, the slowdown we are seeing now may only be the opening stage.
Posted originally on Mar 16, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
There is a critical failure in the Neocons’ playbook. They assumed that Iran would NOT close the Strait of Hormuz, for they assumed that they would line it with mines and physically close the waterway, which would be suicidal for them as well. Still, they sought out and destroyed several of their mine laying ships. But Iran has been able to close the Strait with just threats. Ships headed to China are passing with no problem and the US is not doing anything about it fearing (1) it would be confrontational with China, and (2) it would cause oil prices to rise even higher. Iran attacks ships selectively. That is the fear tactic that has shut the Strait without mines or Iranian naval ships.
Our greatest problem here is that we DO NOT know what the goal of this war is supposed to be. Trump has said regime change, end nuclear weapons, as well as degrade the Iranian military. As long as he does not clearly state what is the objective, then this leaves the door open to declare victory and exit. If he says it was just to degrade the military, then he can declare victory and end it tomorrow. Bur why then assassinate the Ayatollah? That made it seem to be the regime change and calling to the people to rise up was in line with that. Iran has stated that it 400 kg of uranium is under ruble. If that is true, then the nuclear argument is off the table. Yet to do either the regime change or the seizure of the nuclear material will necessitate boots on the ground and there is no real support in America for that.
No matter what the truth may be, the perception remains that this is Israel’s war and we have participated in the targeting and killing of the Ayatollah, which was Israel’s policy of decapitation.
Apocalypse fears, once associated with the fringes of society, are now commonplace across North America—and are shaping attitudes towards perceived threats. New research has revealed just how widespread these beliefs have become, fueled by climate change, geopolitical instability and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. Belief in the end of the world is surprisingly common across North America, and it’s significantly influencing how people interpret and respond to the most pressing threats facing humanity. This is becoming a dominant concern with many viewing the Middle East war as leading to Armageddon.
Posted originally on Mar 15, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Marty, looking at Socrates, it does not show that this release of 400 million barrels of oil will do much. Am I reading this correctly?
ANSWER: The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil into the global market, the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. This is just for show. However, it actually makes things far more vulnerable. This is all predicated on a quick victory with the conquest of Iran. If that assumption is wrong, this will not help.
1. MATHEMATICALLY INSUFFICIENT (won’t even cover 2-3 months of lost supply) 2. STRATEGICALLY STUPID (leaves U.S. vulnerable to future crises) 3. POLITICALLY DESPERATE (election-year panic move) 4. ECONOMICALLY FUTILE (treats symptom, not disease)
Let’s get real. Global oil consumption is about 100 million barrels/day (mb/d). U.S. consumption is about 20 million barrels/day. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz supply affects about 21 million barrels/day (21% of global supply). Releasing 400 million barrels at the global consumption rate would last 19 days (400M ÷ 21M/day). There is no way this will calm markets in the long term.
As I have been warning since the turn in the ECM in 2024, the US would enter STAGFLATION but Europe would be more of an economic Depression. The Marxist agenda of the EU oppresses the economy and it has posted the lowest economic growth of the major powers in the world. They hatred of the rich and insistance on exploiting them is why the economic growth is pathetic. As I have said, the capitalization of just the NYSE is nore than all the exchanges of Europe, including London, combined.
The Trump administration has wisely invoked the Defense Production Act and had overriden California which shut down offshore oil operations in California. Trump has wisely addressed oil supply disruption risks and reduce reliance on foreign crude by increasing domestic production. Releasing 400 million barrels is just not a real solution.
The Trump Administration has directed Sable Offshore Corp., an oil and gas company headquartered in Houston, to restore operations at the Santa Ynez Unit and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System off the coast of Santa Barbara. Failing to do so allows Iran to engage in a supply war like the 1970s. Trump is also lifting sanctions on Russia. The best thing to come out of this Iran War is to put a check against Zelensky.
I am still concerned about June/July. While President Trump said “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” on NBC on Saturday, saying that a “very solid” agreement would have to include a commitment by Tehran to abandon nuclear ambitions. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic is open to “any regional initiative that leads to a fair end to the war,” according to an interview published by the UK-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website on Sunday.
Let me cut through the diplomatic bullshit and tell you what’s really happening: Netanyahu is absolutely pushing for regime change in Iran, and Trump is going along with it. But the relationship is more complex than simple puppet-master dynamics.
NETANYAHU’S POSITION has been clear and consistent. He wants the complete destruction of Iranian regime (not just nuclear program, not just military degradation—REGIME CHANGE). He has wanted this for 40+ years (documented, consistent). He has stated this explicitly multiple times in recent months (post-Feb 28 strikes). The first strike was to implement his insane policy of DECAPITATION assuming that would cause the government to collapse assassinating Khamenei and the IRGC leadership.Let’s be clear. That is not “deterrence,” that’s REGIME CHANGE operation and Trump agreed.
TRUMP’S POSITION looking at his public statements, suggests “maximum pressure,” “they must change behavior.” He has also made occasional regime change hints. His actions are consistent with regime change decapitation strikes, “every weapon” threats, no clear offramp for Iran. This presents the problem of no exit strategy all based on the assumption Netanyahu whispers in his ear that DECAPITATION will succeed. Yet, Trump is also transactional might accept “deal” if Iran capitulates completely, but that does not see likely based on our computer models. Netanyahu absolutely in his ear, but Trump has own motivations (political, ego, strategic)
The real question is: Why is Trump doing this BECAUSE Netanyahu demands it, or are their interests ALIGNED? It appears that Trump and Netanyahu both want regime change, yet for independent motivations. Netanyahu has been pushing Trump further/faster than Trump would go alone.
Netanyahu does have domestic US support he is using against Trump. The Evangelical base (30-40% of Trump’s coalition) are fanatically pro-Israel, see Iran as biblical enemy as the Amalek of 1 Samuel 15:2-3! Then there are the domestic Jewish donors who are also major Republican funding such as Sheldon Adelson’s widow Miriam, others—billions at stake. There is also the AIPAC influence, which is a powerful lobbying group that can make/break candidates. Add to this, the media support, which spins the Neocon agenda and is Pro-Israel amplifying Trump when he’s tough on Iran.
The Byzantine Empire did try to defeat the early Arab-Islamic Caliphates and lost a significant portion of its territory. However, the Empire managed to survive, fight back, and eventually reclaim some of its lost lands. Yet the conflict was not a single, short war but a protracted series of campaigns known as the Arab-Byzantine wars, spanning over four centuries from the 7th to the 11th century. The outcome was a mixture of catastrophic defeat and eventual resurgence. They conquered Constantinople and the last emperor died fighting on the walls trying to save the last remanent of the Roman Empire.
This war is pushing the system over the edge and at stake will indeed be the 2026 Midterm Elections. The vast majority of congressional Republicans are publicly supportive of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran. This does not help matters. My concern is that nobody seems to comprehend that this is NOT the same as Iraq. Saddam was just a head of state. This is a religious war as was the case in Afghanistan. There is no historical precedent for winning such a war when the core is to undermine or destroy a religion.
Posted originally on CTH on March 15, 2026 | Sundance
World War Reddit works both ways. In Ukraine the manipulation was to give the illusion of success for Zelenskyy. In Iran the manipulation is to give the illusion of failure for Trump.
The bottom line in both scenarios is the illusion being disconnected from reality.
[Truth Social] – “Iran has long been known as a Master of Media Manipulation and Public Relations. They are Militarily ineffective and weak, but are really good at “feeding” the very appreciative Fake News Media false information. Now, A.I. has become another Disinformation weapon that Iran uses, quite well, considering they are being annihilated by the day.
They showed phony “Kamikaze Boats,” shooting at various Ships at Sea, which looks wonderful, powerful, and vicious, but these Boats don’t exist — It’s all false information to show how “tough” their already defeated Military is!
The five U.S. Refueling Planes that were supposedly struck down and badly damaged, according to The Wall Street Journal’s false reporting, and others, are all in service, with the exception of one, which will soon be flying the skies. Buildings and Ships that are shown to be on fire are not — It’s FAKE NEWS, generated by A.I.
For instance, Iran, working in close coordination with the Fake News Media, shows our great USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier, one of the largest and most prestigious Ships in the World, burning uncontrollably in the Ocean. Not only was it not burning, but it was also not even shot at — Iran knows better than to do that! The story was knowingly FAKE and, in a certain way, you can say that those Media Outlets that generated it should be brought up on Charges for TREASON for the dissemination of false information!”
“The fact is, Iran is being decimated, and the only battles they “win” are those that they create through AI, and are distributed by Corrupt Media Outlets. The Radical Leftwing Press knows this full well, but continues to go forward with false stories and LIES. That’s why their Approval Rating is so low, and I can win a Presidential Election, IN A LANDSLIDE, getting only 5% positive Press — They have no credibility!
I am so thrilled to see Brendan Carr, the Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), looking at the licenses of some of these Corrupt and Highly Unpatriotic “News” Organizations. They get Billions of Dollars of FREE American Airwaves, and use it to perpetuate LIES, both in News and almost all of their Shows, including the Late Night Morons, who get gigantic Salaries for horrible Ratings, and never get, as I used to say in The Apprentice, “FIRED.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!” President DONALD J. TRUMP
Posted originally on CTH on March 15, 2026 | Sundance
Perhaps the Ellison effect is actualizing inside CNN, but the insufferable furrowed brows of Jake Tapper were unusually non-combative today as he interviewed U.N Ambassador Mike Waltz while discussing Iran. [Video and Transcript Below]
[Transcript] – Joining us now to discuss, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret who served in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Ambassador Waltz, thank you so much for joining us.
The president just said that the U.S. has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both militarily, economically, and in every other way. Help us understand what that means, that Iran has been beaten. Does that mean that U.S. service members will soon be coming home?
MIKE WALTZ, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS: Well, Jake, let’s just unpack that for a moment.
Militarily, the U.S. military has decimated Iran’s air force, their air defenses, their missile capability, their missile production capability. This has been a dominant victory, the likes of which we haven’t seen in modern American military history, economically, the maximum pressure campaign that President Trump put in place his first term and reinstituted the second — as the second major item, executive order that he signed this term.
Their currency is tanking. Their foreign reserves are completely depleted. And that’s why you saw the most recent uprising. You saw the uprising based on economic terms. And then, diplomatically, we just saw this week at the U.N. Security Council 135 nations — Jake, it was a U.N. record — 135 nations side with the Gulf Arab countries and condemn the GCC — excuse me — with the Gulf Arab countries, the GCC countries, and condemn Iran for its atrocious attacks on civilian infrastructure, ports, airports, hotels, resorts. And, as I pointed out at the Security Council, I don’t see how the regime argues that those are military targets. They are clearly not, and they are clearly deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure.
And I have got to tell you, this shoot-in-all-directions strategy that Iran has taken on is backfiring. They have never been more diplomatically isolated. Just one more point. Russia and Iran had an opportunity to veto that measure, and they stood back and did not. They abstained.
So, with friends like those, I think Iran is going to stay incredibly isolated.
TAPPER: You said Russia and Iran abstained. I assume you meant Russia and China abstained.
WALTZ: Excuse me, Russia and China. That’s right.
TAPPER: Yes. Yes.
So, is he willing, the president, to accept an end to the war that leaves whatever of the regime is left still in place, the new ayatollah as supreme leader? Because it sounds like — the way you describe it, it sounds like President Trump, with the exception of the stranglehold that the Iranians have of the Strait of Hormuz, it sounds like everything has been achieved pretty much, with the possible exception of a new regime, which was not one of the specific goals.
WALTZ: Well, the president has said he’s not happy with this new nominated Mojtaba Khamenei, who, by many accounts, is an incredibly hardline individual, a hardline cleric.
We will see if he’s actually really in charge. As Secretary Hegseth said, he was wounded during the initial strikes. And it’s unclear that he really has control of the country, if he’s even alive at this point.
So, look, I will leave it to the president where he decides and when he decides and on what terms he decides as commander in chief to end hostilities. But I think the important point here is, the United States has never been in such a position of strength and the Iranian regime has never been in such a position of weakness when it comes to its options.
TAPPER: Despite U.S. strikes on military targets on Iran’s key oil hub of a Kharg Island Friday night, Iran says that oil production on the island is proceeding normally.
If Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, is President Trump prepared to target those oil facilities, which, as you know, handle 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports? And, if so, are you worried that that could risk even more of an escalation when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz? WALTZ: Well, President Trump is not going to take any options off the
table, Jake, and he pointed out in his TRUTH where he announced the military infrastructure strikes on Kharg, which, by the way, they use to project their fast boats, drones and other types of attacks on — into the Gulf, that he deliberately hit the military infrastructure only for now.
And I would certainly think he would maintain that optionality if he wants to take down their energy infrastructure. But we have to take a step back, Jake. I mean, look at what they’re doing to global energy supplies. Look at what they’re trying to do in terms of constraining the world’s economy with drones and boats.
One could only imagine if they had a nuclear arsenal or if they had a nuclear weapon. That’s what many of these Gulf Arab countries have woken up to, that they now realize, and why they have been so supportive and are standing with us as we seek to ensure this regime can never have a nuclear weapon, which President Trump has been consistent about for 10 years.
TAPPER: If not longer.
WALTZ: Yes.
TAPPER: President Trump said that the Navy, the U.S. Navy, is going to begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and that will begin very soon. And he said — quote — “Many countries will be sending warships to keep the strait open and safe” — unquote.
The administration has been talking about potential Navy escorts for more than a week now. Shipping executives tell CNN that all their requests for escorts have, as of now, been rebuffed. President Trump said — quote — “Hopefully, China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others will send ships to the area” — unquote.
Is he hoping that those countries are going to send ships or have they committed to sending ships? And how soon will those naval escorts be ready?
WALTZ: Well, I will leave those conversations to him. The conversations are ongoing.
I think there’s an important point that’s getting kind of missed in the conversation, that 80 percent of the oil coming out of the Gulf heads to Asia. Only about 7, 8 percent heads to the Western Hemisphere. And thank God for President Trump’s energy dominance agenda, everything from opening up ANWR, new pipeline in Alaska, incentivizing fracking, what we’re going to see come out of Venezuela and Guyana in the coming months and years.
This is why we have to be energy-independent. And I have to just say it’s a little rich coming from the progressive left, who has literally been at war against oil, literally were putting policies in place to drive up the price of oil in order to force Americans to buy E.V.s and go to wind and solar, are now suddenly celebrating it or decrying the lack of it.
Like I said, it’s a little bit rich. We have the energy dominance in place. But, to your point on escorts, look, back, in the ’80s, under the tanker wars then, the last time Iran tried to constrain global energy supplies, you had French, United Kingdom, even Soviet Union forces in there escorting their tankers out that were heading to their markets.
And I think that’s what President Trump is calling upon the world, saying the entire world is affected. Iran can’t hold your economies hostage. And we certainly welcome, encourage, and even demand their participation to help their own economies.
And, meanwhile, the U.S. military will continue to pound the Iranian military, their missile, boat and drone forces to keep the straits open.
TAPPER: Sources tell CNN that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence to help Iran better target U.S. service members. You said in an interview last week that President Trump will — quote — “deal with it accordingly.”
Here’s what President Trump had to say about this on Friday.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
BRIAN KILMEADE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Do you think Putin is helping them?
TRUMP: I think he might be helping him a little bit, yes, I guess. And he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right? China would say the same thing. You know, it’s like, hey, they do it and we do it, in all fairness. They do it and we do it.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
TAPPER: Do you see an equivalence between the U.S. helping Ukraine defend itself and Russia helping Iran target U.S. service members?
WALTZ: Well, Jake, we have known that Russia and Iran have this symbiotic, have this strategic partnership for some time now.
I will tell you what Russia has lost out of this. They have lost their biggest manufacturer of the Shahed drones. Russia’s been licensing those drones for quite some time and hitting Ukraine with it, all the more reason why we need to defang this regime and all the more reason that they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
And I will just point out too, because a lot of critics out there are making hay of this, it was President Trump that put sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft. He also put sanctions on Lukoil. The Biden administration did not do that for many years.
They only did a kind of a pinprick action at the very end of the administration. He also took tough action on India. And now he’s put a temporary pause on that in order to calm energy markets. I think these are all pragmatic, commonsense approach — approaches,
while we deal with the Iranian regime.
TAPPER: But, surely, surely Russia helping Iran target our service members is upsetting and distressing, and action needs to be taken.
WALTZ: Well, I’m not going to get into leaked assessments of what intelligence is being provided or not. I just can’t and won’t do that.
But I will tell you, if they are doing it, it certainly hasn’t been affected — or effective, excuse me, because the Iranian air force, air defenses, missile forces, and Navy have been completely decimated.
TAPPER: All right, Ambassador Mike Waltz, thank you so much. Appreciate your time today, sir.
Posted originally on CTH on March 15, 2026 | Sundance
In the midst of the two pontificating princesses of Parliament verbally slapping each other with cashmere sweaters, Prime Minister Mark Carney made a rather remarkable statement.
According to the Canadian Prime Minister, he has blocked ten thousand IRGC members from entering Canada {at 1:00 minute of video below}. Now, why would 10,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards think it was a solid option to exit the conflict for safety in Canada?WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on March 15, 2026 | Sundance
In the midst of the two pontificating princesses of Parliament verbally slapping each other with cashmere sweaters, Prime Minister Mark Carney made a rather remarkable statement.
According to the Canadian Prime Minister, he has blocked ten thousand IRGC members from entering Canada {at 1:00 minute of video below}. Now, why would 10,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards think it was a solid option to exit the conflict for safety in Canada?WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on March 15, 2026 | Sundance
The Panicans will be greatly disappointed by the foresight and economic planning a proactive White House deployed before the confrontation with Iran began. [Video and Transcript Below]
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, leaves CBS’s Margaret Brennan stuttering to respond to the insight presented. As noted in the interview, proactively the Trump administration planned to mitigate any oil disruption for the U.S, undertaking a series of moves before Operation Epic Fury began.
Iran thinks “that they’re going to harm the U.S. economy and get President Trump to back down,” Hassett says. “There couldn’t be anything that was a stupider thing to say because the bottom line is that our economy has got all this momentum in the world and we’ve got lots and lots of oil,” he continued.
Then highlighting how the strength of the U.S. position actually ends up with leverage in trade negotiations, Hassett notes, “we have lots of trading partners that are more on the hook from imported oil from these guys.” Which draws attention to President Trump’s statement yesterday saying, in essence, ‘come guard your oil shipments while we kill bad guys’. WATCH:
[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We go now to President Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett. Good morning to you.
KEVIN HASSETT, DIRECTOR NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL: Good morning.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The IDF spokesperson said this morning that Israel’s combat operations will go through the beginning of April. Is that also the U.S. timeline? And if so, how much will this conflict cost the economy if it goes on another three and a half weeks?
HASSETT: Right. Well, one of the things that we’ve been briefed on almost every day is what’s going on and what the president is being briefed on with regard to the Iran war. And as of yesterday this story was- the message was that people, the defense- Department of War believed that it would take four to six weeks to complete this mission and that we’re ahead of schedule. So we are a couple of weeks in and I think that should give you some clarity about when we expect that the president will decide that we’ve achieved his objectives. The other thing I can say is that you can also look at futures markets, which are interesting because you’ve cited over and over the spot price of gasoline, which, of course, is affected right now by the disruption of the strait, but if you look at the futures prices, they are expecting a rapid, rapid end to the situation and much, much lower prices. In fact, I don’t think I’ve seen a sort of future price path with such a steep decline in all my years watching futures.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We will talk about the oil trade later on in the program, as those markets prepare to open later today, but the International Energy Agency called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. So I’m not sure how much past charts are a future indicator here, but the president is calling on other countries now to send ships to help protect the Strait of Hormuz. You just heard Iran’s foreign minister saying Tehran has been approached by other countries about negotiating their way through strait. If that kind of negotiation happens, are Americans just going to get cut out here?
HASSETT: Well, first of all, you have to understand that America is not going to have its economy harmed by what the Iranians are doing. The bottom line is that in the ’70s we didn’t produce much oil, but now we do. So, America is in a very strong position. They think that they’re going to harm the U.S. economy and get President Trump to back down. There couldn’t be anything that was a stupider thing to say because the bottom line is that our economy has got all this momentum in the world and we’ve got lots and lots of oil. We have lots of trading partners that are more on the hook from imported oil from these guys. And as we can see, it’s completely unacceptable that a government that would, you know, murder 40,000 of their people just a few months ago would be blackmailing countries to let stuff through. President Trump thinks that is unacceptable and for the global economy we need to fix it and we are going to fix it fast.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. It is a global market, but I take your point there is supply of course, there’s refining, there’s other interruptions to the ability to access oil and gas. But gas prices themselves are up more than 20% since this conflict has begun. Jet fuel prices are leading airlines to raise ticket prices quickly. That’s not my opinion, that’s the United Airlines CEO who just said that. The American Farm Bureau warned of supply chain shocks when we already have record high input prices. So can you give us some kind of projection here on how this will impact consumer prices and for how long?
HASSETT: For sure. And I want you to know that this is something that the government has been studying for decades. And even myself, when I first came in as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers one of the first assignments I got from General Mattis was to study what happens if there are oil disruptions. And so we know how to minimize- minimalize the impact of this disruption. Now, you can’t make it completely go away but you can minimal-ize it. And so we are increasing the amount of permits that we’re giving to Venezuela, we’re getting new sources of fertilizer from Morocco and from Venezuela and other places to make sure that our farmers have the fertilizer they need. And we’re even thinking ahead about the jet fuel problem which is really mostly a problem for jet fuel coming from Asia. And we have been in discussions to make it easier for foreign ships to go from the Gulf of America over to the west coast to make sure that we don’t have a disruption from jet fuel as well. And so, we are looking at every scenario, and we’ve got a plan for each scenario.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. Are you going to trigger those things and make them operational or are you just looking at them? And how do you prevent food prices from also going up?
HASSETT: Right. Well, the big problem right now would be energy prices and we’re watching and monitoring closely. We’re looking at things every day and seeing how quickly we progress. The bottom line is again, that the reason why futures markets for oil are dropping down towards 60 and even below 50 in the long run is that we expect that if Iran stops being this disruptive terrorist force in the Middle East that there will be a boom in oil production and industrial production. But think about the harm- the harm that this evil government has done to their own people. Back in the ’70s before the revolution, Iran was the 17th largest economy in the world, now it’s something like the 50th.
MARGARET BRENNAN: No one’s going to defend the regime’s human rights record on this program.
HASSETT: They’ve run- they’ve run their country into the ground- but the point is that- I wanted to just say that the countries around them, they also suffer from the risk of having them go nuts and attack them. And so we expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over and we’re still being briefed that it would be four to six weeks from the beginning and that we are ahead of schedule.
MARGARET BRENNAN: A big positive shock, four to six weeks. So this a April 9th scenario you’re talking about? You are going to see some kind of boost–
HASSETT: The president will decide.
MARGARET BRENNAN: –even–
HASSETT: The president will decide if they no longer have the capability of blackmailing us and harming our neighbors. And once he decides that, then he will call an end to the war.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That’s a pretty broad definition.
HASSETT: Well, we’ve destroyed their navy, we’ve destroyed their air force and so on and so I think we are well on the way.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well tell me how much is this war going to cost? Because I know the Pentagon briefed it’s going to be about $11.3 billion. Do you need to ask congress for more money to pay for what you’re doing?
HASSETT: I think right now we’ve got what we need, whether we have to go back to congress for more is something that I think that Russ Vought and OMB will look into, but the latest number, you said 11.3, the latest number I was briefed on was 12, and so it’s consistent. So this is something that we’ve got the weapons that we’ve already got in place to do this and so we are not necessarily going to need any kind of supplemental.
MARGARET BRENNAN: More than that was spent in just the first week of the war, you know that. It was over five billion just in munitions. You’re solid on the 12?
HASSETT: I said $12 billion–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –For six weeks of war?
HASSETT: No, I’m sorry. The 12 billion was what I was briefed has been spent so far.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Gotcha. Kevin Hassett. Thank you very much. We we will be right back with a lot more ‘Face the Nation’
Posted originally on CTH on March 15, 2026 | Sundance
Some additional contexts not included in the British-centric financial review below.
(1) Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae will be at the White House next week. This meeting was scheduled several weeks before Operation Epic Fury began. The timeline continues to indicate that President Trump’s primary geopolitical focus is on China, not necessarily the U.K-EU angle, although that is a materially significant overlay.
(2) “A major U.S. weapons package for Taiwan worth about 14 billion dollars is awaiting approval from Donald Trump and could be announced after his planned visit to China later this month, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The proposed deal would be the largest U.S. arms sale ever to Taiwan and comes as military tensions between China and the self-ruled island continue to rise.” {SOURCE}
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Heavenly Father, we ask for You to protect our leadership’s intent through value-driven stewardship. Keep arrogance and pride far from the heart of our leadership and help them to listen well. Dear God, we ask that You provide spiritual protection and intellectual discernment; provide calm through troubled waters, and space for wisdom to enter the hearts and minds of our national leadership keeping their bold influence aligned with Christ’s example. ~ Amen
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