Spotless Sun


Recently, NASA’s photo of the sun showed ZERO sunspots. The previous and current solar cycle has been declining significantly in solar activity beyond what has been known before. There still remains the risk that we will see a further decline in the next cycle that will begin in 2020. This may have a significant impact upon weather and could be a significant reason why the computer is projecting an inflationary cycle ahead that will be created by a cost-push effect rather than a speculative boom.

Of course, Global Warming advocates who support government raising taxes to prevent this fictional disaster they have created like AOC says we will all be dead in 12 years, refuse to ever do REALscientific research and backtest their theories before 1850. They simply ignore history and nature which just so happens to move in a cyclical fashion with everything. BTW, the reason we are born, live, and then die, just so happens to also be because of a cycle. OMG – cycles do exist? No way! According to their theories.

Climate Change Has Not Impacted Polar Bears


There are too many polar bears in parts of Nunavut that it is posing a risk to humans. Climate Change hasn’t yet affected polar bears and reports are to be released which defy the Global Warming agenda. As long as government funds only Global Warming research to support new tax schemes, we run the risk of a rise in disease and famine around various parts of the globe.

Climate Change is a reality. There is insufficient data to forecast that we are headed toward an ice age. It appears more that we will retest the former lows and then resume a warming trend after 2032. The Little Ice Age should be a major low based on our computer models.

Most people have no idea that it was Climate Change which began the entire investigation into cycles. I have called this the clash between catastrophe and uniformity. The idea that systems just collapse in a catastrophic manner can be disquieting, to say the least. For this reason, uniformitarianism (linear thinking) soothes the senses and brings order to the future dominated by uncertainty. Yet, these two clashing schools of thought that lie at the core of just about everything from the Big Bang to Charles Darwin’s (1809-1882) Theory of Evolution, began with the discovery first in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of a intact frozen woolly rhinoceros followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen mammoth in 1787.

You may be shocked, but these discoveries of frozen animals with grass still in their stomach, set in motion these two schools of thought since the evidence implied you could be eating lunch and suddenly find yourself frozen to be discovered by posterity.

This entire period of the late 1700s sparked a truly profound Intellectual Revolution that erupted in every field. In 1821, there was a Swiss engineer Ignaz Venetz who took a bold position also inspired by the Siberian discoveries, that there had been a former Alpine glaciation on a massive scale. His 38-page report was published posthumously in 1859. It was the birth of the idea of an Ice Agetheory. A Norwegian geologist Jens Esmarch also argued that the Norwegian glaciers had been much greater in size.

What was emerging was a view that history was in fact non-linear. The weather was not a static progression of uniformity. Just as there was a cycle to the seasons, the idea that cycles existed on a much larger scale began to emerge. The very idea of an ICE AGE implied a change in weather patterns. History was perhaps not linear even within the context of nature.

In 1832, Professor A. Bernhardi argued that the North Polar ice cap had extended into the plains of Germany. To support this theory, he pointed to the existence of huge boulders that have become known as “erratics” he suggested were pushed by the advancing ice. This was a shocking theory for it was certainly a nonlinear view of natural history. Bernhardi was thinking out of the box. However, in natural science people listen and review theory unlike in social science where theory is ignored if it challenges what people want to believe. In 1834, Johann von Charpentier (1786-1855) argued that there were deep grooves cut into the Alpine rock concluding, as did Karl Schimper, that they were caused by an advancing Ice Age.

The catastrophists could claim greater influence in the birth of the field of physics all based upon this idea of cycles. Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) developed his laws of gravity and was inspired by his friend to publish the work who underwrote the project, Edmund Halley (1656-1742). This was the same Halley who discovered the cyclical nature of comets. Halley believed that the comet that carries his name was the same comet reappearing throughout history at regular intervals recorded by contemporary historians of all ages. Halley saw hidden within history, the same periodic intervals of a comet.

Why do these people insist that Climate Change is manmade when all the historical evidence shows it has always changed and there are cycles to it? The answer is simple. Money! They will sell out the human race to get their hand on money. They are not scientists for they distort the history for personal gain.

 

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte Resigns After Pressure from Nationalist Matteo Salvini…


Italy is one of the key economies within the EU. In the past several years, driven by both economic challenges and unfettered immigration challenges, the populist revolt has gained ground. Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, a nationalist-minded politician, has won the hearts of Italian voters.  Matteo Salvini is a proud Italian populist.

Several months ago Matteo Salvini challenged current Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to hold a snap election; and followed-up with continued pressure on the Italian government by advancing populist positions of economic patriotism, sovereignty and tougher immigration rules.

Amid a revolt against globalism writ large, it was not accidental that Nancy Pelosi traveled to Italy recently with a coalition of U.S. leftist politicians to organize a strategy to fend-off Salvini and assist Prime Minister Conte. Pelosi is an opportunist. Part of the plan for Conte to hold power was a shift within his party (Five Star Movement or 5sM) to form an alliance with the Italian left-wing Democratic Party (Pelosi’s ideological allies).

To pull off their plan, Conte and the Democratic Party would align; Conte would then resign and hold the snap election where 5sM and the far-left Democratic party would re-elect him. This approach would strategically counter the 36 percent of support currently held by Matteo Salvini (the League). Today Giuseppe Conte resigned.

(Wall Street Journal) […] Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation in a speech to the Senate on Tuesday, blaming far-right Interior Minister Matteo Salvini for causing a political crisis as Italy looks to draw up a challenging budget to keep its parlous finances on track.

[…] Leaders of 5 Star are exploring the only plausible alternative to snap elections the League would likely win: a new coalition government with their longstanding foes, the mainstream center-left Democratic Party. Talks in coming days could show whether such a coalition is possible or early elections are needed.

Italy’s power struggle is a symptom of Europe’s continuing political upheaval after a decade of crises including the economic depression in the periphery of the eurozone and the pressures of rising immigration from poor and war-torn parts of Africa and the Middle East.

[…] The political upheaval has gone further in Italy than in most other EU countries. In March 2018 elections, Italy’s mainstream parties suffered a heavy defeat. In a country tired of economic stagnation and ineffectual political incumbents, one in three Italians backed 5 Star, while the League won 17% of the vote. Since then, however, 5 Star has struggled in government and its support has halved, while Mr. Salvini’s tough stance on immigration has helped double support for the League.

If Italy holds early elections, Mr. Salvini could become the first leader of a major EU nation who comes from a self-described populist party to the right of Europe’s mainstream conservatives. Mr. Salvini, an avowed admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has challenged the EU’s rules on fiscal discipline, accusing Germany and France of hypocritically breaking the rules while imposing austerity on Italy. Some League officials have advocated Italy’s exit from the euro, although Mr. Salvini says it isn’t on his agenda. (read more)

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In the background of all of this we have: (1) Italy’s involvement in “spygate” and the U.S. intelligence operations in/around Joseph Mifsud (Malta).  (2) The pending Brexit at the end of October, a threat to Pelosi’s ideological group.  (3) The possible defeat of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, another threat to Pelosi’s ideological group; and (4) the economics of Trump’s trade strategy, more threats to Pelosi’s scheme team.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is traveling the world in an attempt to block rising nationalism, and the consequences of economic trade deals therein, wherever possible.  Her domestic political interests in the 2020 election are predicated on stopping the deglobalization process underway by President Trump.

Big Govt Publishes New Cooling Standards: Thermostat Should Be Set to 82 Degrees When Sleeping…


Fresh from the same Dept. of Energy and EPA that gave us: toilets that don’t flush; light bulbs that don’t light; dishwashers that don’t wash; plant-based fuel that burns like carrots; and paper straws that dissolve in liquid….  Now we get this:

[…] Energy Star, the federal program from the DOE and the Environmental Protection Agency, said the coolest you should keep your home is 78 degrees when you’re home.

When you’re at work or away, the program recommends setting it at 85 degrees. When you’re sleeping, Energy Star said to set the thermostat at 82 degrees. (link)

Setting the thermostat at 82° at night is well recognized grounds for divorce. I swear these administrative state progressives are going to have us force-fed sustainable algae cakes if this keeps up.

Some journalist-type person published these new cooling standards on twitter, and the responses are quite funny.

“I see we’ve decided to give up on sleeping. Or going home for that matter. Or having pets that aren’t native to the rain forest.” (link)

“I’ve already embraced a dying Earth, so I keep my central air between 67-72 at all times.” (link)

“I’d be laying there making a giant sweat angel in my bed” (link)

“New report shows these as the recommended temps for smelling like an onion.” (link)

I have no idea how my ancestors survived deserts. If the thermostat in my house showed a number that started with an 8 I would call the police” (link)

But seriously…. given the track record for current energy efficient standards and how they end up being actually applied to life (toilets, dishwashers, lightbulbs etc.) it’s darned frightening to think the Feds believe 78° (when home), 85° (when away) and 82° (when sleeping) is a reasonable cooling standard.

Insta-misery; aka living in hell.

Watch out California….  Pretty soon you might not have options when the proletariat mandates the installation of compliance regulators inside the A/C system.

 

The Rising Tensions: Kashmir – Hong Kong – Korea


The War Cycle is by far on schedule. We have tensions rising almost everywhere. In Asia, we have the Kashmir Crisis as hundreds of people took the streets in Srinagar, the main Indian city, to protest New Delhi’s decision to lift the special status of the territory.

In Hong Kong, there are fears that China will send in troops and take military action, which would trigger an international crisis as fear in Asia as a whole will rise sharply over the future of economic stability. This could send the yuan crashing and even force the break of the Hong Kong peg. The Hong Kong share market peaked in January 2018. It has not made new highs in 2019 and remains at risk of breaking the 2018 low of 24540.43. That gives way and capital is showing its concern for the future of Hong Kong.

In South Korea, the high in the share market remains that of November 2017. We are trading below the 2017 low. A closing at year-end below that warns of lower lows into 2020. Here, the concern is the economic pressure on North Korea. North Korea holds a Tree Planting Day every March. The question is whether it could help regreen a largely deforested nation whose people face food shortages, deadly natural disasters, and bitterly cold winters. These economic pressures will eventually push the Supreme Leader into perhaps an attack on South Korea or face an overthrow himself.

We have a serious crisis building in Asia on three fronts. Then there is the chaos of Europe. The Democrats are complete idiots for claiming if Britain exits the EU, they will block any trade deal to punish Britain in support of Brussels. Instead of helping to solve the crisis, they are encouraging the EU not to renegotiate. The Democrats are basically saying — screw the Irish.

Right now, I am working from Asia in the middle of a real crisis with a front-row seat.

 

The European Commission is just an Undemocratic Echo Chamber


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Rome was my first WEC. It was truly an eye-opening event. Nigel Farage was correct – you are the alternative to Davos. I wanted to say after you explained the structure of the European Union and there the German people were denied any right to vote to join the euro, this coronation of the new grandmaster of the European Union Ursula von der Leyen was utterly undemocratic. We never have a right to vote for the head of Europe. Americans complain about Trump, but at least he was elected. Leyen was never elected by the people and this is very dangerous for this institution need never answer to the people.

HBM

RESPONSE: You are absolutely correct. They can hold impeachment proceedings against Trump but the head of the EU does not have to face the people in any election. This is a real problem. The European Commission is simply an echo chamber. They all see the world only through their own eyes and need not be held accountable to the people. Draghi imposed more than 10 years of insane interest rates that have wiped out pensions and destroyed the dreams of the elderly. Then they appoint the head of the IMF who was a lawyer and also does not stand for election EVER!!!

Canadian Ethics Commission Concludes Justin Trudeau Violated Oath of Office, Broke Law, Used Position To Influence Attorney General…


The Canadian Office of Ethics completed their investigation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and whether he inappropriately used his office to influence and pressure the Canadian Attorney General to drop criminal charges against a political ally and donor, SNC-Lavalin.  [Backstory Here]

Section 9 of the Canadian Ethics Act prohibits “public office holders from using their position to seek to influence a decision of another person so as to further their own private interests or those of their relatives or friends, or to improperly further another person’s private interests.”

The investigation found:

“Prime Minister Trudeau used his position of authority over Ms. Wilson‑Raybould [AG] to seek to influence, both directly and indirectly, her decision on whether she should overrule the Director of Public Prosecutions’ decision not to invite SNC-Lavalin to enter into negotiations towards a remediation agreement.

Therefore, I find that Mr. Trudeau contravened section 9 of the Act.”

In response to the official finding of the Canadian Ethics Office, Justin Trudeau said he “accepted the findings”, but “disagreed with the decision.”

Additionally, Justin from Canada refused to apologize for interfering in the criminal case, breaking the law and violating the duty of his office, because his goal was to protect Canadian workers who might have been negatively impacted if the company was impacted or was barred from doing business.

In essence, a ridiculous virtue-signalling defense. WATCH:

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Immediately the leftist Canadian media circled-the-wagons to protect the office of the Prime Minister.  The liberal media in Canada agree that all oaths of office are contingent upon only following laws, rules or governmental policies that advance liberalism.  Any liberal or left-leaning target that runs afoul of the laws of Canada can be excused if their intent is to assist the larger progressive cause.

All Canadian media agree, openly and publicly, that if a conservative prime minister was to engage in similar conduct, to the benefit of a company donating to conservative political candidates, that Prime Minister should be immediately removed from office.  It is the political ideology and intent of the office that determines the application of law.

Within the Canadian media response to the transparently illicit conduct of Prime Minister Trudeau, you discover why Canada has a closed media system, called a “cultural industry”.   By law, policy and regulation, including within trade agreements, the media business in Canada is protected by the government from competition.

The “cultural industry” laws are how the liberal Canadian government keeps control of narratives to ensure no political challenges to their ideology ever reach the electorate.  The closest comparison in media systems would be dictatorial state-run media in China, Iran, Turkey or similar ideologically controlled nations.

As a consequence, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was just found by the U.S. equivalent of the Inspector General, to have violated the most fundamental principal of his office and the Canadian legal system; yet he will remain in office to advance the progressive agenda.

That’s Canada.

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Finland & Japan Confirm Global Warming Data is not Supported


COMMENT:

Hi Martin,

Being 100% in agreement with you about Climate Change I thought you might be interested in 2 newly released research projects one from Finland and one from Japan: The Finnish researchers conducted by Turku University, state in one among a series of papers, see: (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf)

“During the last hundred years, the temperature increased by about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”. This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University in Japan, which has furthered the Finnish researchers’ theory: “New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an ‘umbrella effect’,” the just-published study has found, a summary of which has been released in the journal Science Daily.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190703121407.htm

These findings are extremely significant in that both groups have identified the ‘umbrella effect’ as the prime driver of climate warming rather than anthropogenic (human) factors.

I look forward to this information reaching your blog so that other readers can be informed.

Many thanks for all your work which you so generously share and for the huge body of work you have put into Socrates, which is of inestimable value to all those involved in finance and investment.

Thank you.
SF

REPLY: I have spoken with many in the field and all say the same thing. The data is altered and there is just no evidence that human activity has changed the cyclical nature of climate. Pollution is a separate issue which they use to confuse the weak-minded. We all want clean air and water. I lived in London when the busses were still diesel. It was horrible in the summer. I would have to hold my breath when walking near a bus. That does not equate to altering the climate cycles. They cleaned up the air and that no longer is the case. But then stench from the busses back in the ’80s is not responsible for the natural cycles in the climate that date back millions of years.

1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed


QUESTION: I do not believe you have ever commented on Eric Cline’s book 1177BC, the year civilization collapsed. Do you think this is likely what we face or is this different?

WL

ANSWER: There were about eight civilizations that all collapsed with the exception of Egypt post-1250 BC. It was caused by a major shift in climate that led to droughts which resulted in the widespread famine which inspired migrations/invasions. This event of 1177BC was the Bronze Age equivalent to the fall of Rome, for they both were followed by a Dark Age.

Many have attributed this collapse of the Bronze Age to the Sea Peoples, which were most likely northern Mediterranean mass migrants due to the climate getting colder in Europe. Cline has put together a nice assembly of sources, but he missed the climate change. He assumed there was a migration southward. However, we can see the first dip to cold came about 1,800 years ago. We can see that the all-time high temperature was about 3,300 years ago.

The collapse of the Bronze Age was mostly complete by about 1100-1000 BC. Our computer has identified a 1720-year cycle beginning in the Dark Ages with the fall of Rome in 476 AD when the last pretend Emperor reigned (Romulus Augustus (575-476AD)). Our model highlighted the cycle between the Dark Ages of 1720 years which brings us to 1244 BC — right on target for the beginning of the collapse of civilization.

How Civilization Collapses
1) Collapse in centralized government
2) The rich flee and economic growth declines
3) The economy implodes without investment
4) Birth rates decline with population
5) People migrate and abandon urbanization

There were clearly natural disasters and invasions as well as civil unrest. But climate change was probably the primary cause of mass migration. The danger we have today is once again the mass migrations into Europe and the United States. However, if the climate turns sharply colder, we will have famine and that undermines the social structure. We already have the centralization of government & central banks on the ropes. The hunt for taxes will result in the hoarding of wealth and the decline in investment.

The birth rate has been collapsing and the final stage will be abandoning cities because of taxation like Chicago, Philadelphia, New York City, etc. Keep in mind the collapse will unfold over the course of probably 51.6 years before you reach rock bottom. It all depends upon the climate looking forward.

New Video : Erasing America’s Hot Past


This video is a must watch for anyone wanting to understand the climate crisis scam.