Confused Biden Conflates Wage Growth with Inflation, Claims Inflation is Having Less Money in Your Paycheck


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 26, 2022 | sundance 

Many people believe the people who are in charge of the economic policies destroying the middle-class have no idea how the Main Street economy actually works.  I disagree, I believe they know exactly what they are doing and why they are doing it.

From one perspective, inflation is a statistic that comes from a bureaucratic system quantifying prices.  They have no concept of how policy-driven price increases hurt consumers or working-class families.  Everything in their sphere is academic and esoteric.

However, that said, those who have designed policy know there are benefits to inflation, like lowering economic activity that supports their lowered energy production policies. Inflation also helps them pay their way out of the spending they create that drives the inflation. Make money worth less and debt is lessened, or so the theory is told.

Joe Biden made remarks today that “inflation” as he looks at it, is defined as the amount of money in a paycheck.  WATCH:

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Economic Policy Experts

The Flight to Mexico


Armstrong Economics Blog/Mexico Re-Posted Sep 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good afternoon Mr. Armstrong.
I have been a basic member for 6 years.
Since then I have been following your USD prediction and it is on spot despite everyone saying the contrary.
However, after seeing the EURO, Pound, Yen, and other currencies waterfall, why has the Mexican peso kept its value? I can’t find the logic.
Could you please explain?
Thanks for ALL you do.
BP

ANSWER: This is the Array from 2020. That was the ideal of the high for the dollar and that coincided with the end of the Trump Administration. The Biden Administration has been at war with fossil fuels from the beginning, despite trying to blame Putin.

This has benefited Mexico from a value perspective, but while claiming to be on board with this Great Reset, they are not as gun-ho as Canada and the USA. Even polls at the start of 2022 in the USA were telling. Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey concluded that 45% of American voters believed the highest priority for businesses was to provide individual consumers with high-quality products and services at the lowest prices. Only 9% of voters classified climate change as the top priority for business, and only 1% said that business resources should pursue social justice as a top priority. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Our capital flow model has been pointing to tremendous inflows to Mexico since they have had the best anti-COVID mandates so there are a lot of Europeans leaving for South and Latin America and Mexico has been a primary target.

This trend appears to be continuing into 2024. As war rises in Europe and the leaders seem intent upon sacrificing their people on the altar of climate change, COVID, and Ukraine, the flight of people and capital will continue. For those who refused to get vaccines, Mexico has been the safe haven for the world.

  • There are no COVID-19 test requirements in Mexico.
  • COVID vaccination passports or certificates are not mandatory to enter Mexico.
  • There are no quarantine requirements in Mexico

Mulvaney, Goolsbee and Santelli Finally Discuss Supply Side Energy Driven Inflation and the Disconnect of The Political Federal Reserve


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on September 23, 2022 | Sundance

Mulvaney, Goolsbee and Santelli Finally Discuss Supply Side Energy Driven Inflation and the Disconnect of The Political Federal Reserve

September 23, 2022 | Sundance | 51 Comments

Finally, a finance and economic discussion that touches on the critical component to inflation that no one dare say, or else they suffer political backlash.  Although Mick Mulvaney, Austin Goolsbee and to a lesser extent, Rick Santelli, had to maintain the acceptable ‘pretending’ approach, parsing words carefully, at least this is one of the first times where the supply side (energy driven) issue of global inflation was discussed.

As the group collectively admitted there is no other option other than a “hard landing” that collapses the economy from the current Fed approach; additionally, Rick Santelli, blasts the relationship between the political central banks and the global leaders who have pressured this dynamic.  WATCH:

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Still pretending, but lessened a little.  Hey, progress.

The Bank of England All but Admits Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of England (BoE) all but admitted the UK is officially in a recession. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey stated weeks ago that there was nothing the central bank could do to prevent a recession at this stage. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise rates by half a percentage point to 2.25%, marking the highest level since 2008. The markets were expecting a 75 bps hike, but the central bank is moving slowly and aiming to avoid panic.

The central bank foresees a 0.1% drop in GDP over the next three months after experiencing a 0.1% decline last quarter. The CPI report for August came in at 9.9%, which is only a slight drop from July’s 10.1% reading. Winter is coming, and that is when the full impact of the energy crisis will be felt. The BoE believes inflation will rise to 11% in October when energy caps are altered. Like the Federal Reserve, the BOE is a long way from its 2% inflation target and relied on QE for far too long.

The dollar’s strength continues to cause a devaluation in sterling as the USD is seen as the last safe haven.

Jared Kushner Under Fire for Not Supporting Ron DeSantis Political Use of Texas Alien Transfers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 23, 2022 | Sundance

The DeSantis Crew, formerly the 2016 Cruz Crew, is up in arms over a selectively edited soundbite from Jared Kusher, President Trump’s son-in-law. {Direct Rumble Link}

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis went shopping for South American aliens at an El Paso migrant processing facility in Texas.  The DeSantis people took the aliens to a hotel with plans to fly them to Delaware, Joe Biden’s home state.  However, facing backlash over the legality of spending Florida funds on a previous operation to move Texas migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, the DeSantis team abandoned the recruited Venezuelan aliens at the hotel, leaving them confused and stranded.

Jared Kushner noted in a Fox appearance that he did not like the approach of recruiting, manipulating and using arriving aliens as political pawns.  Immediately the DeSantis supporters pulled an 8-second soundbite from a one-hour Fox News appearance and proclaimed Kusher was criticizing Ron DeSantis, which in the world view of Team DeSantis makes Kushner an enemy.  However, the full statement with context is not controversial at all, and in my opinion Kusher is correct.  WATCH:

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The fact that Ron DeSantis sent people to Texas to recruit aliens from an El Paso processing facility with the promise of a flight to Delaware, then abandoned them when the political heat started, literally leaving them at the hotel confused and waiting for a bus that never arrived, shows the operation itself was using aliens as “political pawns,” and it is unseemly.

The DeSantis people can try to spin this against Kushner, but the outrage should really be toward the people working for DeSantis who pulled this stunt.

Massachusetts Energy Companies Announce 64% Increase in Electricity Rates Beginning November 1st


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 22, 2022 | Sundance 

National Grid and Eversource are the two major electricity providers for Massachusetts. Both companies have notified the Department of Public Utilities (DPU) that rates for electricity are about to skyrocket.

National Grid has announced a 64% increase in electricity rates effective November 1st. While Eversource is on a different schedule, they too have announced an increase in natural gas rates of 38% on November 1st and the January 1, 2023, electricity rate will be announced in the next few weeks. Eversource is anticipated to announce a similar rate increase to National Grid. WATCH:

Both major power companies rely on natural gas to create electricity.  Thanks to Joe Biden’s energy policies, which includes the massive export of natural gas in LNG form, domestic prices for natural gas have skyrocketed and will continue increasing as production is further shut down by regulation.

We are helping the EU survive their sanction driven energy crisis by sending them natural gas (LNG format), while simultaneously forcing Americans to pay more in order to maintain the EU export.   Everything about the process is FUBAR.

Massachusetts – […] National Grid said the monthly bill of a typical residential customer using 600 kilowatt-hours of electricity will increase from $179 last winter to about $293 this winter, an increase of about 64%. National Grid said the delivery portion of electric bills will basically remain flat.

“National Grid buys electricity on behalf of its customers from the wholesale power market through a regulatory approved process established 20 years ago. That process has served customers well over the years and provides flexibility for unforeseen events, like limited supplier response to solicitations. But things have fundamentally changed,” Helen Burt, the company’s chief customer officer, said in a statement. “Today, under a sustained, high market price environment, it is challenging to maintain affordable prices. Given that, we think it’s a good time to work with our regulators and other stakeholders to review the process and electricity supply dynamics in the region, with an eye toward reducing price volatility and maintaining a secure, reliable and resilient energy system for the future.”

The company also announced that its natural gas rates are expected to rise on Nov. 1. They said they have a pending proposal with the state Department of Public Utilities that would result in the monthly bill for an average Boston Gas residential heating customer using 115 therms per month of $278, an increase of $50, or 22%, compared to last winter’s rates.

Eversource, the state’s other major electric provider, said in an email that it is on a different schedule than National Grid for setting its electric rates so no increases are currently planned.

“We file electric base service rates twice per year with the DPU,” company spokesman Chris McKinnon said. “Our last change was on July 1, 2022 and our next change will be January 1, 2023, which we will be filing for in the coming months.”

Over the border in New Hampshire, Eversource announced in July that electric rates would be doubling for many residents due to higher natural gas prices fueled in part by the war in Ukraine.

Eversource did announce Wednesday that it has submitted a proposal to the Department of Public Utilities seeking to raise its natural gas rates. They said their average residential customer using 126 therms of gas a month would see an increase of about 38%, or $86 on their natural gas bill over last winter. Those rate increases would take effect Nov. 1.  (read m0re)

Checkbook Economics, Household Expenses Rise $961 Per Month, $11,532/yr, While Incomes Remain Flat


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 22, 2022 | Sundance

With most financial media being intentionally obtuse with the Biden economic impact upon Main Street, it is refreshing to see analysis that cuts to the heart of the matter.  HatTip to ZeroHedge who provides a link to a great article outlining reality for blue and white-collar working families.

The folks at NerdWallet have taken the inflation date from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) and applied the math to real life.  The result is a good encapsulation of checkbook economics and how the Biden economy is painful for the working class.

In total, Joe Biden’s energy policy driven inflation has added $961/month to preexisting expenses.  That’s $11,532 a year just to retain the status quo standard of living.

(NerdWallet) – […] In all of 2020, American households spent $61,300, on average. This number includes everything we spend our money on: housing, food, entertainment, clothing, transportation and everything else. In 2022, it stands to reach $72,900, a difference of more than $11,500 if consumers want to maintain the same standard of living. Keep in mind, this is an average, a number that represents an approximation across all Americans, but one that’s exact to a very few. Those who earn (and therefore spend) more will see more dramatic dollar increases. Those who earn less may see less dramatic dollar jumps, but the impact of these rising prices could be more significantly felt. (read more)

If the average household spent $61,300 and inflation is adding $11,500 to the expense, that means we now have to spend 18.7% more just to maintain the current standard of living.  That average is in line with what we are seeing in the real world.