Posted originally on Dec 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The most frequently asked question of 2025: Is war inevitable?
I’ve spent my entire life attempting to prove the computer wrong. I’ve hoped that the cycle in motion could change and I’ve watched as events unfolded, right on target, that only Socrates could foresee. A cycle in motion remains in motion. The trajectory and speed may alter, but the end result is inevitable.
Below is perhaps the most popular article of 2025. I wish I could provide a different answer but I will always respond with the truth.
QUESTION: Well, here we are at the 15th, right on schedule. Your model turns up, and it looks like no deal. Would you care to comment?
Uri
ANSWER: Putin said their purpose would be “to remove the root causes of the conflict and move towards creating a long-term, durable peace in a historical perspective”. Zelenskyy said he was prepared to attend, but only if Putin also showed up, because “everything in Russia depends” on the Russian leader as if that is not the case in Ukraine. Trump also was not attending.
Zelensky is a Neo-Nazi and he takes orders from the EU and NATO. He wants every Russian dead. What would he do if Russia left the Donbas? He has outlawed them from speaking Russian, denied them any right to vote, outlawed Orthodox Christianity, and outlawed them from even celebrating Christmas. The Ukrainian people have a choice. Either to die for the Neocons, or rise up and overthrow Zelensky. Contacts in Romania realize the EU is trying to orchestrate them into war with Russia. The strategy here is to send the Eastern Europeans in to kill as many Russians as possible, and then Macron can invade Russia like Napoleon.
Our model peaked intraday in the last quarter of 2024, with the third quarter of 2024 as the highest quarterly closing. The correction was to be into the first Quarter, and then the second quarter was a Directional Change. We will now head into the third quarter of 2025, which should reflect the failure of any peace deal because any ceasefire is only to regroup and rearm Ukraine. There is no resolution to this, and the EU will NEVER allow Ukraine to have peace.
There was a peace deal. Putin withdrew his tanks around Kiev, and Boris Johnson flew to Ukraine and instructed Zelensky not to sign any peace deal. More than one million Ukrainians are now dead. My sources in the US military confirm that all the claims that Russia has lost 1 million are fake news. This is all to push for war. Europe does NOT want peace. They are broke, and without war, the people will be storming their parliaments with pitchforks to hang these politicians on the street, for everything they were promised will vanish in a sovereign default. They NEED a distraction, and that is war with Russia, the same as Carney ran against Trump in Canada and avoided all domestic economic damage carried out by the Liberal Party.
Posted originally on Dec 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The year 2025 was not defined by a single shock, but by a decisive break in confidence. Governments repositioned, as did central banks, but both have realized they are unable to stop the cycle in motion. The public no longer trusts those in charge of monetary or fiscal policy and confidence was the dominant theme of the year.
The drums of war loudly rang throughout the world. The Middle East saw intense conflict between Israel and Palestine. The West gained strategic partnerships with formerly ousted partners and created new enemies. Europe continued to build its defenses as it braces for World War III, promoted by its own neocons who have refused to accept peace. Nations drifted deeper into debt as they prepared for the inevitable, propelling the sovereign debt crisis. Russia acknowledged that it is at war with NATO and has increased its nuclear power. There were over 110 ongoing wars across the globe in 2025, and tensions are intensifying.
Economic warfare persisted. April’s tariffs and market correction sent shockwaves through the economy. Nations were forced to rethink trade and restrategize all imports/exports. War tensions rose in the East as all eyes are on Taiwan. China and the US remain at odds and are fighting for the title of “financial capital of the world.” China’s growing middle class and technological advancements rapidly accelerated.
Donald Trump taking office marked a global shift away from the globalist agenda–for now. Trump steered the US in a 180-degree direction from Joe Biden’s policies on energy, immigration, trade, and most importantly, war. I warned that Donald Trump’s election could delay the inevitable but not prevent it. As expected, the opposition has opposed the president every step of the way, which led to the longest government shutdown in US history. Confidence cracked once more when it was revealed that Joe Biden did not assume authorshipof his presidency, leaving the public to wonder who was in charge of leading the world’s top economy for the past four years.
The push toward the Build Back Better agenda collapsed after Trump, and we witnessed countless nations vote for candidates with nationalistideologies. Klaus Schwab’s exit from the World Economic Forum was unexpected and marked a change in vision from the bureaucratic elites who can no longer rely on the lies of climate change to control the masses. The new leadership of the WEF signaled a new direction for the globalists. They have not relented on their mission but altered it to adjust to the changing tides.
The dawn of the AIage has led to a new rise of institutions and reframed the future. Semiconductor chips are of utmost priority, as well as rare earth minerals, both of which are in tight supply. Automationhas begun to replace workers. Jobsare in tight supply as businesses no longer trust in tomorrow and will not expand even if there is an opportunity to borrow at lower rates.
The most widely read content reflected that reality. When Vietnam erased and froze 86 million bank accounts tied to digital ID compliance, the response was immediate and global. Readers understood this was not about Vietnam, but about the future of money itself. That concern deepened as similar systems expanded elsewhere. Thailand’s biometric control model illustrated how surveillance, banking, and identity are converging into a single permission-based framework. Digital IDs and CBDC are not only valid concerns but concrete plans. Governmentsare increasing surveillance, tightening their grip on the masses who no longer trust them. Capital has poured into equities and tangibles as a hedge against governments.
The most engaged blog posts of 2025 shared a common thread: capital controls, digital identity, surveillance, war risk, sovereign debt, and the loss of credibility in government data. It is clear that the public has lost all hope in a reliable government. Trust has been lost, and people are seeking ways to protect themselves from increasingly authoritarian regimes.
2025 was the confirmation year. As we move into 2026, volatility will not come as a surprise. The Economic Confidence Model points to a heightened risk of financial stress, political instability, and sudden shifts in capital flows as confidence in institutions continues to erode. This is the phase in the cycle when governments are forced to react, often resorting to control measures as volatility rises. Although 2026 will be far from a calm year, the computer will continue to guide the way and provide a bit of predictability amid an unstable world.
Posted originally on Dec 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Whether the car bomb is perfidious depends entirely on the method used to get the bomb to the general. Perfidy (Treachery) is strictly prohibited under Article 37 of the Geneva Conventions’ Additional Protocol I. Perfidy is defined as acts that invite the confidence of an adversary to make them believe they are entitled to, or are obliged to accord, protection under the rules of IHL, with the intent to betray that confidence.
Feigning surrender, feigning injury, feigning civilian status, or using the protective emblems of the Red Cross/Crescent to launch an attack. This is a war crime because it undermines the protections meant to safeguard vulnerable persons (like surrendering soldiers, the wounded, civilians) and erodes the minimal trust needed for IHL to function.
Ukrainian forces have been accused of carrying out assassinations of top Russian generals, including using methods like car bombs and remote-detonated explosives. For instance, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov was killed in December 2024 by a bomb hidden in an electric scooter Zelensky claims he has been assassinating Russians under the claim that they are responsible for war crimes. These operations are part of Ukraine’s strategy to weaken Russian military leadership and morale. However, these are outright war crimes.
If the bomber poses as a civilian driver, uses a civilian car with white flags, or in any way feigns a non-combatant or protected status to approach the general, this is perfidy. The act betrays the confidence the general would have that civilians are not directly participating in hostilities. This is a war crime.
Ukraine has been involved in a series of high-profile assassinations targeting senior Russian military officials during the ongoing conflict.
Notable Incidents
Date
General Name
Method of Assassination
Details
December 2024
Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov
Bomb hidden in an electric scooter
Kirillov was killed outside his apartment in Moscow. Ukraine’s security service claimed responsibility.
April 2025
Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik
Explosive device in his car
Moskalik was killed by a bomb placed in his vehicle near his home. Ukraine’s President hinted at the operation.
December 2025
Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov
Car bomb
Sarvarov was killed by a bomb detonated under his car in Moscow. Investigators suspect Ukrainian involvement.
These assassinations demonstrate Ukraine’s total disregard for the Geneva Convention as they are using spies posing as civilians to carry out war crimes in Moscow. There are traits that are common to authoritarians as Zelensky has silence any opposition in Ukraine. Historically, revolutionary or authoritarian socialist systems—especially Leninist and Marxist-Leninist ones—have consistently used censorship and repression to silence opposition. That pattern isn’t accidental; it flows from how those systems understand power, truth, and opposition.
The EU has become indistinguishable from the censorship advocated by Lenin and Marx. They are desperate to cling to their Marxist view of the world and in so doing, they are now even seeking to interfere in the United States imposing sanctions on any anyone who dares to disagree with their views of totalitarianism. Confidence is cracking. Capital is watching. And history suggests the capital flow will not favor those who confuse control with trust. In Leninist theory, socialism is not just a policy preference—it is a historical inevitability. Once a party claims to represent “the working class” or “the people,” then any opposition is not merely disagreement, it is redefined as counter-revolutionary, reactionary, or bourgeois sabotage. This is what is unfolding in the EU. They are desperate to retain power and they know they are losing their grip. When that takes place, any government historically seeks total control. This is unfolding in the EU before our very eyes. This is why they will defend Zelensky no matter what his does and they are ignoring the corruption perhaps because they are getting kick-backs on the side.
Vladimir Lenin explicitly argued that freedom of the press and pluralism were tools of class domination, not neutral liberties. From that standpoint, suppressing opposition is framed as defensive, not tyrannical.
Zelensky is a Neo-Nazi who may be Jewish, but like Soros, has pretended to be Christian even joking about confiscating assets of Jews and Russians on stage before becoming president. He married a Christian and his children are baptized. Jews that I have spoken with say he is no Jew. The Ukrainian government has acknowledged some of these assassinations, framing them as necessary responses to Russian aggression and war crimes. Europe is fully aware that Ukraine is a rogue nation-state and that this has been a deliberate war to destroy Russia. The solution applied in Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia was to divide them according to ethnicity. This war would NEVER have taken place if we simply allowed the people of the Donbas to choose as we did in Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. Ah, but they were not Russians. They hate the Russian people for the sins of Stalin, yet they forgave Germans for the sins of Hitler and Italians for the since of Benito Mussolini.
Zelensky has called for nuclear war. This is why I have advocated exiting NATO ASAP, because they will create a false flag to start WWIII. The EU is collapsing and needs this war to retain absolute authoritarian power. This is also in part why VP Vances has warned that the UK and France do in fact pose a national security risk to the USA for they are desperate for war. MI6’s involvement in Ukraine, to the extent publicly acknowledged, is intelligence cooperation. They also have been providing targeting information. This is like someone hiring an assassin to kill their spouse and claim they did not pull the trigger.
Trump said on Sunday: “Well, I think the land — you’re talking about — some of that land has been taken. Some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months — and you’re better off making a deal now.”
Russian live in the Donbas. The Minsk Agreement was to allow them the human right to vote. After Ukrainians slaughtered Russian civilians burning them alive in Odessa, a city founded by Kathrine the Great, that is when the Donbas moved to separate. The Ukrainians HATE Russians and returning that land to Ukrainian will lead to ethnic cleansing but because they are Russians, the Western Press will never report the truth.
This, because the EU, the Neocons, and Ukrainians hate Russians, they will bring the world to the brink of total destruction. China will join with Ukraine because they know they will be next. Add to this, North Korea and Iran along with Pakistan. Nobody seems to be against war except some in the United States.
Posted originally on CTH on December 29, 2025 | Sundance
Following a viral investigative report by independent journalist Nick Shirley on the Somali community fraud in Minneapolis, Minnesota, FBI Director Kash Patel announces a surge in FBI resources to the region to follow-up.
VIA Kash Patel – “The FBI is aware of recent social media reports in Minnesota. However, even before the public conversation escalated online, the FBI had surged personnel and investigative resources to Minnesota to dismantle large-scale fraud schemes exploiting federal programs. Fraud that steals from taxpayers and robs vulnerable children will remain a top FBI priority in Minnesota and nationwide.
To date, the FBI dismantled a $250 million fraud scheme that stole federal food aid meant for vulnerable children during COVID. The investigation exposed sham vendors, shell companies, and large-scale money laundering tied to the Feeding Our Future network.
The case led to 78 indictments and 57 convictions. Defendants included Abdiwahab Ahmed Mohamud, Ahmed Ali, Hussein Farah, Abdullahe Nur Jesow, Asha Farhan Hassan, Ousman Camara, and Abdirashid Bixi Dool, each charged for roles ranging from wire fraud to money laundering and conspiracy.
These criminals didn’t just engaged in historic fraud, but tried to subvert justice as well. Abdimajid Mohamed Nur and others were charged for attempting to bribe a juror with $120,000 in cash. Those responsible pleaded guilty and were sentenced, including a 10-year prison term and nearly $48 million in restitution in related cases.
The FBI believes this is just the tip of a very large iceberg. We will continue to follow the money and protect children, and this investigation very much remains ongoing.
Furthermore, many are also being referred to immigrations officials for possible further denaturalization and deportation proceedings where eligible.” (read more)
Generally speaking, the FBI doesn’t usually activate unless the issue at hand begins to become a risk or threat to Washington DC. The FBI usually acts as a proactive defense mechanism for the interests of federal government.
Posted originally on CTH on December 28, 2025 | Sundance
President Donald Trump is ducking and weaving through the minefield of geopolitical politics, managing a proxy war he did not create that was organized by a corrupt U.S. State Dept./CIA and globalist agenda.
Trump wants the war to end; he wants the U.S. out of it; he wants peace with a fundamental reset of the entire European dynamic, and he wants a strategic relationship with the Russian Federation. However, every element in the proverbial ‘West’ wants exactly the opposite.
Washington DC – the majorities in both parties, most of the European Union and the ‘Western’ military industrial complex stand in opposition to President Trump’s objective. The value of the dollar rests on his ability to navigate this complex geopolitical dynamic. The ‘stakeholders’ are against him. Trump has few allies. This is the challenge.
Do not diminish the scale of the challenge without consideration for the scale of opposition. Russian President Vladimir Putin knows exactly what President Trump is up against; we would be wise to watch with similar patience.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been convinced by European leaders, NATO and the Intelligence Community that he has the upper hand. President Trump has only his wits, a strategic perspective and us.
Posted originally on CTH on December 28, 2025 | Sundance
President Trump stated earlier today he held a 2-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin as ongoing discussions with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continue.
President Trump suggested a few more weeks would be needed to iron out the remaining, critical sticking points. When asked if he and Zelenskyy had agreed on what would happen in the Donbas region, President Trump said the “word ‘agreed’ is too strong.” “I would say not ‘agreed’ but we’re getting closer to an agreement on that,” Trump said.
“Some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months,” Trump said. “And you’re better off making a deal now.” WATCH:
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