Nov 20 2025

When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?

Posted originally on Nov 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

For months now, I’ve been hounded with the question: “When will mortgage rates fall back to 3%?” People still cling to the fantasy that the last decade was somehow “normal.” It wasn’t. It was a once-in-history phenomenon driven by central bank manipulation following the 2008–2010 mortgage-backed securities crisis, mixed with the COVID crisis. We lived in an artificial world of zero rates, negative real yields, and government intervention that distorted every market from bonds to real estate.

That period is over, and it is not coming back.

The mainstream press continues to peddle this narrative that the Federal Reserve controls long-term mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are pricing in global sovereign risk, not domestic political propaganda. The same interest-rate shock hitting homebuyers in Miami is hitting borrowers in Munich, Montreal, and Melbourne. This is a global cycle driven by capital flows rather than the Fed.

As I explained in the Real Estate Outlook 2026, residential property is no longer priced on your local bank’s posted rate. Those days died long ago. Capital flows determine rates, and capital is voting with its feet against government debt worldwide.

All conference attendees and virtual ticket holders will receive the Real Estate Outlook 2026 report that details what to expect in the years ahead as confidence shifts from public to private assets.

Nov 20 2025

House Votes Unanimously to Reverse Surveillance Payments to Senators

Posted originally on CTH on November 20, 2025 | Sundance

As noted last week, the Senate included a provision in the government reopening bill to allow Republican Senators to sue the DOJ and data providers who comply with subpoenas for senator’s telephone and email records.

Nine senators who previously were targeted by Jack Smith and Arctic Frost subpoenas likely stand to make millions from lawsuits under the legislation.

In the latest round of DC pretending, the House voted 426-0 to repeal that specific law and terminate the Senate payday. Is the Senate going to take up the bill, of course not. However, the House now has another useless talking point (strong in the pearl clutching is this one) to campaign and fundraise with.

House members are great actors, very upset – very, and their level of pretense is excellent on this repeal bill. The unanimous vote really gives both wings of the uniparty, that reach across the aisle, a selling feature for the next election.

WASHINGTON DC – The House unanimously voted 426-0 Wednesday night to claw back language in last week’s government funding bill that could award some GOP senators hundreds of thousands of dollars in damages for having their phone records unknowingly obtained by former special counsel Jack Smith.

The language, which was quietly slipped into the shutdown-ending package last week by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, drove bipartisan outrage in the House. Even outspoken critics of Smith — including House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is leading an investigation into the Biden-era probe — supported the effort to repeal a politically toxic measure that was quickly branded as a taxpayer-funded windfall for a select few.

“That policy, in my opinion — in the opinion I think of all the members of this institution — is unacceptable,” said House Administration Committee chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), during floor debate. “No one should be able to enrich themselves because the federal government wronged them, no elected official should be able to.”

The provision would allow senators to sue the federal government for $500,000 or more if their electronic data was subpoenaed without proper notification. But there are concerns over the language’s retroactivity — which would extend protections to at least eight Republican senators whose records were obtained as part of Smith’s investigation into Donald Trump’s attempts to subvert the 2020 election results.

There are no guarantees the bill to repeal the language will get a vote in the Senate. (read more)

Nov 20 2025

President Trump Delivers Remarks at the U.S-Saudi Investment Forum

Posted originally on CTH on November 20, 2025 | Sundance

President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attended a U.S-Saudi investment forum and delivered remarks to the assembled business audience.

Nov 20 2025

Senate Passes Epstein “Shiny Thing” Bill, Sends It to President Trump’s Desk

Posted originally on CTH on November 19, 2025 | Sundance

The House version of the Thomas Massie ‘pay attention to me bill’ telling the DOJ to release the information about Jeffrey Epstein, unless it contains material related to national security of investigations, has now passed the Senate by unanimous consent and will now head to President Trump’s desk for his signature.

Trump will sign it, the Epstein ‘shiny thing’ law will go into effect, and the politicians will continue arguing about it and trying to attack the White House because they put the perpetual argument component into THE BILL:

[SOURCE pdf]

The bill is only six pages. I suggest you read it.

As you can see from the highlighted qualifiers above, those of you who enjoy the bread and circus distractions provided by the DC UniParty apparatus, will have at least another year to follow this story. Have fun with it.

Meanwhile, Congress cannot find time to codify any executive orders that might save taxpayer money, secure the border, protect elections, tighten up immigration laws or expel criminal aliens….

…. But thanks to Ron DeSantis’s biggest supporter, Thomas Massie, you’ll always have Epstein.

Nov 20 2025

EU Proposes Suspending Customs and Duty Enforcement During War Preparations Against Russia

Posted originally on CTH on November 19, 2025 | Sundance

When Europe goes to war with Russia, they will not require the military to fill out customs declarations as they cross borders within the EU.

Tanks, missiles, artillery and most combat weapons could be exempt from EU customs declarations if the plan by Brussels moves forward.

Additionally, under the proposal most drivers of military equipment may even be permitted to exceed the limits on driving times and rest periods, should the fight against Russia require extended physical effort.

The newly proposed objective is to empower European soldiers to make independent decisions without having to fill out the customary paperwork, requiring prior approval from the European Commission before affixing their bayonets. The EU wants to work out the details before they begin military operations against the Russian Federation.

EUROPE – […] The communication notes that some countries require 45 days of advance notice before allowing military equipment to cross their territory. “Significant barriers to effective military mobility in the EU persist,” the communication notes. “National rules are often divergent, fragmented and non-harmonised.”

[…] “We need to move fast. We need to move faster than what Europe is used to or is expecting to,” Tzitzikostas said, saying the target is to get the basics in place by 2030.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned over the weekend that Russia may be capable of launching an attack on a NATO member state as early as 2028-2029.

If approved, EMERS would also grant derogations from standard customs and transport rules, including limits on driving times and rest periods for civilian operators, as well as faster, dedicated customs procedures under a specific EU protocol.

[…] To ensure coordination on the ground, each member state will appoint a national coordinator for military transport, serving as a single contact point for permissions, notifications and crisis response. (read more)

I would not be too concerned about the capabilities of Europe to confront Russian troops. It appears there are now multiple discussions within the EU proposing to stop tracking carbon footprints for soldiers during those times of the day when maximum energy expenditure would be needed.

The French and German military leadership are against lifting the climate rules; however, the pressure from the U.S. within NATO appears to be shifting the overall sentiment.

While negotiations are still underway about permitting the burning of fossil fuels for meal preparation in the field, thankfully there are military consultants beginning to convince Brussels leadership that soldiers making coffee in forward operating positions should be permitted regardless of emissions. FULL STORY HERE