Nov 11 2025

Texas Changes Constitution to Attract Capital


Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Texas Flag

Texas is open for business—permanently—as the state solidifies business-friendly measures in its constitution. Texas is signaling to businesses and institutions that it is safe to relocate, as the state will not be vulnerable to massive political regulatory shifts.

The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is poised to open in Dallas next year. Y’all Street has been rapidly booming in popularity as Wall Street refugees flee south. There are already nearly 400,000 financial professionals in the area and institutions like Goldman have plans to create new facilities nearby. To ensure that businesses continue to flee south, Texas has permanently issued a ban on securities transaction taxes. By law, the state may not impose taxes on payroll transactions or financial trades.

Conduct business in Texas, and Texas will not extort your earnings. New modifications to the Constitution prohibit any taxes on capital gains. Texas will not profit from the sale of real estate, capital assets, the sale of investments. Businesses can rest easy in knowing that there will not be a tax on success at the state level. Let us not forget that the Biden Administration wanted to slap a 44.6% tax on capital gains federally. There have been proposals at both the state and federal levels to tax unrealized gains—a sure way to financial suicide.

Again, wealth is not a punishable offense in Texas. The third constitutional amendment bans inheritance and estate taxes. Inheritance Taxes are Marxist and highly destructive economically. Suppose you have a company worth $100 million; your children must pay 40% taxes. They have to fire people and sell assets to cover the tax. Heirs have been forced to sell their family businesses or farms to pay inheritance/death taxes. It is a Marxist assault on property and passing on family wealth. The tax itself disincentives entrepreneurs from creating a legacy. No one aims to work their lives away only to pass on their earnings to the state.

CAPITAL MUST BE ATTRACTED. Capital cannot be strangled or confined. Hunting down capital causes it to flee for safety, a safety that can now be found in Texas.

Nov 11 2025

The Tariff “Dividend”


Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

tariffs_trade_barriers

President Donald Trump has proposed a $2,000 tariff “dividend” to every American. Reminiscent of the stimulus checks provided during COVID-19, the payment comes at a time of low public confidence in government and government policy.

Tariffs generated $151 billion between April and October, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes duty collections will reach half a trillion per year.

This does not simply mean that the US federal government has a few extra billion lying around to disperse to the public. America has over $37 trillion in debt that is expanding by the second. Tariffs are an indirect tax paid by consumers through higher prices, not a penalty absorbed solely by foreign producers. A “dividend” payment to Americans would offset that indirect tax. This is not inflationary in itself, rather, it is merely shifting money from importers and consumers back to individuals. It’s a redistribution, not a monetary expansion.

“The $2,000 divided could come in lots of forms,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing.” Also reminiscent of the COVID stimulus checks, these payments likely would not go to Americans earning over a certain threshold. The US does not need to stimulate spending at this time. Consumer spending remains high amid inflation. Consumer sentiment is low, but that does not correlate with spending; however, it does correlate with confidence.

The nation recently witnessed the celebration of a socialist politician, Zohran Mamdani, who became the mayor of NYC through free offerings. The public has its hand out and is waiting for the government to fix the cost-of-living crisis. The premise is more of a political stimulus rather than a monetary one.

The public always demands government do something, and politicians respond with short-term gimmicks to preserve power. But the underlying problem is systemic. We’re witnessing the end of Keynesian economics. The idea that government can endlessly manage the economy through fiscal manipulation is dying.

Nov 11 2025

Why Economists Cannot Forecast the Future


Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Economist Confused

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your site. I have a question. I understand you are a trader, not an academic. That is the only reason I do read you. Why are academics incapable of ever forecasting the economy?

DL

Summers Cant forecast

 Larry Summers Opinion _ Preparing for the next recession – The Washington Post

ANSWER: If you just listen to the interview of Larry Summers on forecasting, you will see that they do not believe you can forecast anything because it is complex like , so weather if your forecast come true, it is only because of influence – not some model forecast. This is why they have hated me so much. They refuse to accept that there can even be a model or cyclical analysis.

Nov 11 2025

Legacy of the Cycle


Posted originally on Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Legacy of the Cycle

The next report is now in the portal for those attending the WEC November 21-23 in Orlando. This is going over the various aspects of the model and it deals with the post-2032 period as well as between here and there. I put a lot of work into this report to deal with the big questions ahead.

Legacy Index
Nov 11 2025

Is it All Dark for the Future or there Light at the End of the Tunnel?


Posted originally on Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

woman_back_and_forth_questions_300_clr_12477

QUESTION: Do you see the world coming to the brink of nuclear war or the collapse of governments? How do we survive?

LQ

Sixth WaveECM

ANSWER: We are headed into a major change politically on a global perspective. That is NOT the end of the world. This is an opportunity for us to reset government and let us just once learn from the past and make the necessary corrections. This is a big change, just as overthrowing the monarchy was the last time.

World Economy 1

As far as nuclear war, Europe is the real risk. They are pushing for war rather than reform just to retain power. They honestly believe that they can conquer Russia and that save the European Union. Sorry, that is a failed idea. If NATO invades Russia, then expect at least tactical nukes.

Light End of Tunnel

I am doing my best to try to keep the USA out of this mess. I cannot prevent war, the best I hope is that I can reduce the amplitude. We will make it through these confusing times. If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched.

Punch

Nov 11 2025

President Trump Appears for Extensive Interview with Laura Ingraham


Posted originally on CTH on November 10, 2025 | Sundance 

President Trump gave an extensive interview to Laura Ingraham, one of the primary advocates for the Ron DeSantis alligator emoji tribe.  Ingraham did her best passive aggressive routine, positioning herself to antagonize yet appeal to the base of the DeSantis voter.  The resulting interview is transparent in the agenda it represents.

There is currently a rather extensive political operation afoot that has been rolling out for the better part of this year.  The objective of the coalition is to fracture the MAGA base in a similar fashion to how the Tea Party movement was compromised in 2012.

In March 2016, the same group now undermining President Trump and the America First movement, assembled in Sea Island, Georgia to plot how to stop or manage Donald Trump.  While they have moderated their strategies, the collective goal of that group has never changed.  This is the core influence group currently attempting to divide the MAGA movement, with the end objective to position Ron DeSantis.  The group includes billionaires, tech industrialists, media brands, the former political Cruz Crew and the current group of alligator emojis (DeSantis operatives).

I will be outlining the entire dynamic in a research post very soon.

Nov 11 2025

Senate Votes to End Govt Shutdown


Posted originally on CTH on November 10, 2025 | Sundance 

The U.S. Senate has finally voted on a deal to end the government shutdown.  The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.  Eight Democrats voted with all but one Republican.

WASHINGTON DC – The Senate passed a government funding package Monday night that paves the way for ending the longest shutdown in history.

The 60-40 vote came roughly 24 hours after a bipartisan group of rank-and-file senators, in tandem with Majority Leader John Thune, reached an agreement that officially broke a weeks-long partisan stalemate.

[…] The package includes a three-bill “minibus” that would fund the Department of Agriculture and the FDA, the Department of Veterans Affairs and military construction projects, and the operations of Congress for all of the current fiscal year — the product of months of bipartisan, bicameral negotiations between top appropriators. All other agencies would be funded through Jan. 30.

The shutdown-ending agreement brokered in the Senate guarantees that federal employees laid off during the shutdown are rehired and gives federal employees back pay. It would require agencies to give written notice to Congress about the withdrawal of the layoff notices issued during the funding lapse, plus details on the amount of back pay owed.

It also would prevent some future firings with a blanket prohibition on reductions in force in any department or agency at least until the Jan. 30 end date of the continuing resolution. Democrats will also get a vote by mid-December on a bill to extend the enhanced ACA subsidies that are set to sunset at the end of the year.

Negotiators for the Senate Democratic Caucus — led by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Angus King of Maine — said the ability to vote on the subsidies constituted a major win. Negotiators made the case privately to their colleagues that the framework agreement was the best offer they were going to get from the GOP, who did not budge during the private talks on their refusal to get an ACA deal while the government was shuttered.

But Democrats in both chambers, including members of leadership, questioned why they would support an agreement when Republicans didn’t come to the table on their one key demand — negotiating on the Obamacare credits.

Some House progressives and outside groups were seething Monday and searching for someone to blame, with some calling on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to resign from his leadership position even though he, too, voted against the deal. (read more)

Nov 11 2025

Republican Senators Include Provision in Shutdown Bill That DOJ Cannot Subpoena Senators Phone Records – You/Me, No Such Protection


Posted originally on CTH on November 10, 2025 | Sundance 

This is so perfectly Republican.

Republican senators have slipped a provision into the Continuing Resolution bill to re-open government, that forbids the DOJ or Judicial branch from subpoenas targeting their phone records.  The Senate will be protected from abuses to the 4th amendment, but you and me – no such luck.

Additionally, as further evidence to the structural priorities of the professional Republicans, if the legislative provision is violated, each instance of violation will result in a $500,000 payment to the senator.  Go figure.

WASHINGTON DC – Senate Republicans secured a provision in the bipartisan, shutdown-ending government funding package that could award senators hundreds of thousands of dollars for having their phone records collected without their knowledge as part of a Biden-era investigation.

[…] It was tucked into the legislative branch spending measure for fiscal year 2026, part of a three-bill “minibus” of appropriations measures that Senators were set to vote on Monday night alongside a continuing resolution to fund the government through Jan. 30. The House is expected to clear the package for President Donald Trump’s signature as early as Wednesday.

[…] The provision states that electronic services providers must notify a Senate office if the provider receives a request to disclose the data from that senator, or senator’s office. Moreover, the legislative language stipulates that the provider cannot be barred from notifying the senate office under a court order, though that notification may be delayed in the event the senator in question is under criminal investigation.

[…] This portion of the legislative branch appropriations bill also appears to provide a cash bonus for those Senators who were targeted by Smith’s probe. If the provision included in the bill is violated, the Senator can sue the federal government, and if the lawmaker succeeds in the case, the person will be awarded $500,000 or more for each violation by the government. (read more)

Don’t forget, in the last FISA-702 reauthorization, Congress also forbade any member of the legislative branch from being subject to the illegal use of the NSA surveillance system.

Congress is exempt from the FISA abuse they authorize on Americans, and Congress is exempt from subpoenas against their phone records that are authorized against Americans.

Seriously folks, we just cannot make this stuff up.

Nov 11 2025

President Trump Participates in Swearing-In Ceremony for Ambassador Sergio Gor – Media Q&A


Posted originally on CTH on November 10, 2025 | Sundance 

Earlier today President Donald Trump participated in an oval office swearing in ceremony for US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor.  Ambassador Gor was sworn in by Vice-President JD Vance (prompted) and then President Trump took questions from the assembled press pool (13:41).  WATCH: 

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Nov 11 2025

Lawfare Embeds Quit DOJ Jobs as 30 Subpoenas Sent in FL-Based “Russiagate Conspiracy” Investigation


Posted originally on CTH on November 10, 2025 | Sundance

The story stems from MSNBC, but makes sense because Lawfare operatives are everywhere in the USAO’s offices around the country.  In South Florida the junior lawyers are quitting working for USAO Jason Reding Quiñones because the investigation itself is against their allies.

U.S Attorney Jason Quinones is reportedly putting together a larger Russiagate conspiracy investigation/case and has recently sent 30 grand jury subpoenas to the various Russiagate participants. Two junior attorneys within the office have refused to participate in the investigation.

(MSNBC) – The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida called a division-wide meeting on Monday afternoon, following the resignations of two prosecutors who were asked to take part in a vast “conspiracy” investigation into former intelligence and law enforcement officials, according to a source familiar with internal concerns among career prosecutors.

Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quiñones called the impromptu meeting of the largest section in the criminal division — major crimes — a unit that includes two to three dozen career prosecutors. The source said it is unusual for an office’s top prosecutor to convene such a gathering.

“Everyone is on pins and needles,” the source told MSNBC, referring to prosecutors who fear being asked by the U.S. Attorney Reding Quiñones, or his leadership team, to work on a case that President Donald Trump has said should lead to the arrests of an expansive list of individuals, including former President Barack Obama and former CIA Director John Brennan.

The Justice Department approved at least 30 subpoenas on Friday, including for Brennan and former FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page.

The official who signed at least some of the subpoenas is Executive Assistant United States Attorney Manolo Reboso, a source familiar with a number of the subpoenas issued so far told MSNBC. (read more)

It’s good that they quit.

That’s two less Lawfare suicide vests that can detonate inside the effort of the investigation.