President Trump is scheduled to meet with members of congress to discuss his Helsinki, Finland meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The president is scheduled to deliver public remarks sometime around 2:00pm in relation to this meeting.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History
Re-Posted Jul 17, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Martin,
I have been researching facts about history and there is strong evidence that what we were taught in school doesn’t fit with the reality. As you have a very vast coin collection, which is part of your research, how can you be sure of the timeline about those coins? I remember from your blog statements that many years are missing in the Japanese coinage and a very sudden drop in Roman silver minted coins. Greek, Roman and many other coins do not have any dates on them as we know it now. Is there any slight chance that years have been added to history by academia to fit their narrative?
ANSWER: Greek coins are not dated. Most have been determined based upon the archaeological discoveries. Therefore, Greek coins cannot be specifically dated to an individual year. What can be determined is the sequence of rulers and we can determine date approximations often from contemporary writers. The lack of coins in Japan for nearly 600 years simply means that there is no Japanese numismatic record. However, foreign coins are discovered in Japan. Chinese coins were used because they were not devalued with each new emperor as was the case in Japan. There have even been Roman coins discovered in Japan confirming there must have been some trade connection albeit indirect.
The Roman coinage is easy to date because Rome had overthrown the king and began the Republic during the 8th century BC. Therefore, an emperor was never portrayed as a “king” but maintained the pretense of being elected like our politicians today – the curse of a Republic. On the obverse of this Roman coin of Domitian (81-96AD), we see TR P VIII meaning this was the eight year of his reign since his Tribunicia Potestate – The Tribunician power, which had to be renewed each year as a pretence of being elected by the Senate, the same structure the EU today uses to appoint the head of the EU who never stands for public election either. Domitian had served as consul with his brother Titus before he succeeded him as emperor following his death. Therefore, the reserve of the coin shows he was also the Consul serving for the XIIII (14th) time. Again, these are one-year terms.
Here we have a coin of Brutus which boasts that he killed Julius Caesar on the Ides of March (15th) in 44 BC. We also have a coin of Titus announcing the opening of the Coliseum. The Romans used the reverse side of their coins often as a newspaper announcing events and victories. The Greeks were interested in art. They competed for design, but they did not use the coins as a means of propaganda.
This coin of Saturninus is probably one of the most important Roman coins ever discovered. The Latin work Historia Augusta was written during the reigns of Diocletian and Constantine I in the late 3rd century AD. The work recorded the lives of emperors and usurpers in Rome before Diocletian. It was a collection of thirty biographies. Of course, some academics pronounced it was a fake as they did with Homer because it listed people they never heard of during the collapse of the Roman Empire during the Monetary Crisis of the 3rd century. They challenged both the authorship of the work as well as its date ever since Hermann Dessau (1856-1931) whose claim to fame as a historian came in 1889 when he rejected both the date and the authorship the manuscript. He argued there were major problems that include the nature of the sources and how much of the content he claimed was pure fiction. He was proven completely wrong when this coin and one other coin was discovered in Egypt. Saturninus was one of the names of a usurper he claimed never existed.
Here is a denarius of Julius Caesar showing a captive at the foot of a trophy. Note that the man has wild hair and a beard. It is believed that this coin represented the capture of Vercingetorix, the leader of the Gauls. Of course, the writings of Caesar and his conquest of Gaul have survived.
Coins have in fact called into question recorded history. But academics far too often defend old interpretations and refuse to revise previous assumptions. For example, the very date that Vesuvius erupted burying Pompeii is by no means definitive although you will find August 24th, 79 AD as the date carved in stone. This date has been interpreted from a letter to the historian Tacitus some 25 years following the event. This was his old friend Pliny the Younger who provided an eye-witness account of the eruption. He states that the eruption took place on Nonum Kal September (the ninth day before the Kalends of September), which has been calculated as August 24th. However, Tacitus was translated during the 16th Century which remains questionable on many points. The ancient historian Cassius Dio directly states that the disaster took place “towards the end of the harvesting season” which would be in October, not August.
The excavation of Pompeii revealed that the stores were selling fruit that would not have been seasonal for August. There were amphoras filled with wine after the harvest which had been sealed and ready for transportation and sale. Many of the people discovered were wearing warm clothing. That has been dismissed as they just wanted to cover themselves. But during excavations of Pompeii’s “House of the Gold Bracelet” in 1974, 180 silver and 40 gold coins were discovered with the bodies of a group of victims. The coins were buried with the people attesting to their link with the eruption. The coins were never cataloged until 2006. There was one coin that confirmed that the date for the eruption of Pompeii was incorrect and that the account of Cassio Dio was closer to fact than Tacitus.
Titus was emperor at the time of the eruption and he was remembered for the relief efforts. Titus’ administration was marked not by military or political conflicts, but by disasters. His first disaster was the eruption of Vesuvius. The eruption destroyed the cities and resort communities around the Bay of Naples in addition to Pompeii and Herculaneum which were buried under many feet of stone, ash, and lava. Titus appointed two ex-consuls to organize and coordinate the relief effort. He personally donated large amounts of money for the relief effort and he even personally toured the region the following year like presidents do today after such disasters (human nature never changes).
A single silver denarius was discovered among the 180 silver coins in 1974. When it was cataloged, it overturned history and has ever since been buried again in the Naples Museum rather than rewrite the history books. Titus’ father Vespasian died on June 24th, 79 AD. Therefore, any coin of Titus as emperor would have to have the very first recording of his power “IMP VIIII” or 8th Imperator, which was a title that meant ‘leader of the army’ to the Romans. The award was generally given at this point in history for a particularly important victory that was celebrated. In some cases, these subsequent awards, denoted by a numeral following IMP, which also allows dating of coins to a very short period.
The coin discovered in Pompeii had the legend “IMP XV,” which was granted to Titus for the war in Britannia where he sent Gnaeus Julius Agricola who pushed further into Caledonia and managed to establish several forts there as recorded by Tacitus (Agricola 22). Therefore, Titus received this title of Imperator for the fifteenth time for this event, according to Cassius Dio (Roman History LXVI.20). This took place we know in September 79 AD about 3 months after becoming emperor following his father’s death. Obviously, if any coin was discovered in the ruins of Pompeii with “IMP XV” in its legend, then this provides absolute proof that the date for Vesuvius of August 24th, 79 AD cannot be correct.
There are plenty of discoveries that have challenged the view of history. Roman swords have been discovered in Newfoundland for example. The Romans knew the world was round and NOT flat. They pictured a world that is round on countless coins. The one scepter that has survived from any Roman Emperor, Maxentius (306-312 AD), has a globe on it symbolizing that the Emperor ruled the entire world, which was a nice political boast.
Strangely enough, the coins have documented history even when academics choose to try to ignore them rather than admitting they are wrong. It just seems that people do not want to ever admit making a mistake. The academics are no different than politicians, and even the Catholic Church tried to pretend there were no allegations that were valid against some priests. The problem with this posture is that as this policy is supported, they undermine the credibility of everyone in that profession. Academics are no exception. Just revise history and get on with it.
At the conclusion of a day-long meeting(s) between the U.S. and Russia President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin hold a press conference from the State Hall of the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland.
UPDATE: Video Added
President Trump begins the day with a breakfast with the President of the host nation Finland.
[Transcript] – Mntyniemi Residence – Helsinki, Finland – 9:54 A.M. EST
PRESIDENT NIINIST: Mr. President, ladies, gentlemen, it’s great to have you here.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you.
PRESIDENT NIINIST: — you are most welcome. We have done our utmost so that your visit and your negotiations here would be successful. And, like we see, even the sun is with us, although it begins to be far too warm, even here in the North.
But, once again, warm welcome. And we wish all the success in your meetings and negotiations with President Putin.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. And we very much appreciate Finland. We very highly respect your country, our relationship has been a very good one, and our personal relationship has been very good.
And I enjoyed being with you a couple of days ago. NATO has, I think, never been stronger. And it was really — it was a little bit tough at the beginning, and it turned out to be love. It really was a great meeting that we had and brought everybody together, and, I think, very worthwhile.
But I appreciated your support and your help. And I will say, again, you’ve treated us beautifully. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Q Mr. President, what’s your message to President Putin today?
PRESIDENT TRUMP: I’m going to be seeing him in a little while.
Q But what are you going to say to him?
PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’ll do just fine. Thank you.
Q Mr. President, I’m from Finnish press. What was the (inaudible) choice to (inaudible) Finland as a meeting?
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, we think Finland is a great country. We had a fantastic meeting a few days ago; some of you were there. It was a very successful meeting. I think NATO has never been more together. People are now agreeing to pay, and we were having a lot of problem with a lot of people not paying, as the President will tell you. And they’re paying, and they’re paying more rapidly. And I think NATO has probably never been stronger than it is today.
So we had a fantastic meeting, and now we’re capping it with being in Finland. And the hospitality has been fantastic. Thank you.
Thank you very much everybody.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Jul 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; there are just people who refuse to believe that global warming is wrong. When there are cold spells like that here in Australia, they argue there are equally a number of warm spots. They are leading us down the tubes. They will not yield and even consider that they are wrong and if so, what is the consequence of such a mistake.
ANSWER: Yes, when something is against Global Warming that rebuts saying cold spots are not science. Some of these cold snaps have been very strange indeed. Yet when it is warm, suddenly it is science. It even got warm in Siberia. There are placed that are normally a dessert that has suddenly burst with life. They refuse to consider the historical evidence that there have even been ice ages which implies that had to have also been warming periods way before the Industrial Age. The completely ignore the science of how ice ages are even created which takes place WHEN the ice at the North Pole melts and that allows water to evaporate and return as snow. They portray that when the ice melts, the oceans will rise and New York and Miami will be under water. They spin that as science which is just sophistry. In essence, they refuse to believe in the cyclical nature of everything. I suppose they also assume they will live forever since their denial of cycles must mean they too will never die.
The Poles flip. Ask anyone in geology and they will tell you that rocks are magnetized in the direction of the North Pole when they are formed from an erupting volcano. We are watching a number of volcanos erupting not just in the Pacific, but also in Siberia. We know that the North Pole has been all over the place and it is moving more rapidly today than ever before in recent years when we have tracked it. The last time it flipped was over 700,000 years ago so we do not have recorded history to understand what actually happens. The poles flip about every 11 years on the Sun. But nobody lives there so they can’s tell us what to expect.
I have written about the suddenly frozen animal in Siberia. Effectively, there have been two schools of thought – (1) Chaotic and (2) Linear Progression. We do NOT want to believe you can just wake up one day and freeze to death at the kitchen table. Hence, we do not WANT to believe in abrupt change even being possible. This is also why you will find that people prefer to believe in gradual global warming and will immediately call pointing out any cold spell is not science – only global warming is science. They PREFER to believe that humans can alter the entire cyclical nature of the earth just as they prefer to believe in Keynesianism and government will smooth out the business cycle and make life perfect for you just in case you live forever.
Julius Caesar said it best. People just will believe what they WANT to believe. The people who call Global Warming science and everything else is not-science, there is no point in trying to argue. It is like investments. There has to be someone who buys the high when it is time to sell. You cannot change the mind of those who believe in Global Warming because it is their religion. Al Gore will die frozen and be blaming the cold on CO2. This is a question of the cyclical nature of the universe and stops trying to blame someone for there just may be something bigger to take notice of.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Mexico
Re-Posted Jul 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
The winter Downunder has already been the coldest in 26 years. Temperatures plummeted on the East Coast at Marangaroo to a low of -11.1C. It is amazing that the amount of money on the table to justify global warming which is all about raising taxes for carbon emissions is placing us at a greater risk for it is distracting everyone from the real threat – global cooling. Meanwhile, ski fans are rejoicing calling it an Epic Winter in New Zealand.
Meanwhile, between volcanoes erupting in the Pacific, extreme cold in the southern hemisphere, we also have Typhoon Prapiroon which has devasted Japan, which is more prepared for earthquakes than typhoons. Most people do not know in the West why they even call pilots during World War II a Kamikaze pilot. The word “Kamikaze” really means “Divine Wind” and it was the attempt by the Mongold to invaded Japan TWICE when a typhoon destroyed their fleets. It was then said that Japan was protected by the “Divine Wind” and that is why the pilots were named Kamikaze. Right now, the typhoons are hitting Japan killing at what may be more than 200 people while forcing millions to evacuate. This has been the WORST disaster from a typhoon is 36 years.
Meanwhile, there has been ZERO evidence put forth that atmospheric CO2 levels actually will warm anything. In fact, it has been pointed out that the analysis that has been used for the entire theory of Global Warming makes no sense whatsoever. The basis for this entire theory claims that somehow nature treats human CO2 emissions differently than it treats nature’s CO2 emissions. Besides that, CO2 levels have been historically much higher in the past long before humans began the Industrial Revolution.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Turkey
Re-Posted Jul 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
During the 1980s, I was called in to create a hedge for a bank against the Turkish lira which nobody made a market on. I had to create a synthetic hedge for the currency was moving into what became hyperinflation. The Turkish lira has begun to fall ever since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became the 12th president of Turkey on August 28th, 2014. We can see from the chart that the last 4 years has produced nothing but a US dollar rally. The lira really began to break down in 2015 following his election. While his vision was to make Turkey a more important country with a vision of the former glory of the Ottoman Empire, we can see in this chart that 2016 the dollar broke out of the channel technically and has begun the steady rally that can make Turkey the poster-child of the emerging market crisis.
The Turkish financial market has come under heavy selling pressure last week. Turkey could be at the center of a new world financial crisis which is unfolding at first in the emerging markets followed by Europe. The price of the lira fell sharply last Thursday making this the largest price decline for one week in the past 10 years. The Lira continues the immediate downward trend which has been ongoing since Erdoğan came to power.
Turning to the Istanbul Stock Exchange, here too we also saw falling prices. The price of the leading index ISE National 100 plummeted during the week from about 100,000 points to only 90,000 points. At the end of January, the price was around 120,000 points. The relationship between price and expected equity returns dropped to the lowest level in the past nine years.
Looking at the bond market, the 10-year government bond yields rose by about 100 basis points on Thursday in a single day reflecting the collapse in public confidence. The 10-year bond now stands at an almost 18% rate, which is up significantly from 10% a little more than one year ago. Inflation is now running at 15% level and during the hyperinflation period, it reach just about 15% per month.
Erdogan continues to try to consolidate power into a virtual dictatorship. He made his son-in-law Minister of Finance after the election and curtailed the independence of the central bank. He thinks he can simply manipulate the interest rates down, which is just going to blow up in his face. Erdogan has simply increased global investors’ fears with his attempt to control the central bank and interest rates. Erdogan has circumvented all democratic procedures and can appoint the president and vice president of the central bank without any other approval. We are looking at a politician who has become a dictator and we must question even the validity of any election in Turkey. Of even more concern, however, is that history warns this type of behavior typically is characterized by someone who will begin wars to distract the people and retain power at all costs.