April Jobs Report Shows JoeBama Creating Successful Socialist Utopia – Jobs Gains Stunningly Below Expectations, With Downward Revisions for Feb, March


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 7, 2021 | Sundance | 134 Comments

Economic forecasters had predicted one million job gains in April.  The actual results are “stunningly” and “unexpectedly” far below the expectations.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics [SEE HERE] reveals only 266,000 jobs gained in April and downward revisions of March by -146,000.  There are almost 7.4 million jobs available; however, despite the available jobs, no-one is going back to work.

Yes, JoeBama’s “free government money” has created the socialist utopia.

The politically correct economic analysts are shocked that minorities (blacks and latinos) are not going back to work; while ignoring the disincentive that government handouts have created in the JoeBama economy.  The entire dynamic is ridiculous when you consider we should be entering a phase of the jobs economy where vaccination and COVID mitigation should be leading to massive reopenings of the economy overall.

Inside the numbers, the economic sectors showing the worst jobs recovery are directly related to the blue state shut-downs.  Worse yet, there is an underlying scenario showing the economy is not growing despite the ability of businesses to re-open overall.  That spells even more trouble.

(CNBC) – “Today’s report was an enormous surprise and shows the labor market hit a hidden pothole in April,” Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao tells CNBC Make It. “Clearly, the labor market has decelerated quite a bit.”

The 6.1% unemployment rate and 9.8 million people unemployed remained steady in April compared with the months prior. (more)

There is no level of spin that can change the reality of this situation.  JoeBama’s economic policies are exactly the wrong thing to be doing.  Everything, and I do mean every single policy objective, delivered by this administration is AMERICA LAST!

Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%. CNBC’s Jim Cramer discusses what he thinks led to the surprising report.

It’s War – France & Britain Face Off at Sea


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted May 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The French and British are at it again, as always. The British Royal Navy and French police boats patrolled offshore from the Isle of Jersey’s port of Saint Helier. French fishermen are angry about losing access to waters off the Jersey coast, thanks to Brexit, and have some 70 ships gathered for a protest calling for a blockade of Saint Helier.

Two Royal Navy ships, equipped with machine guns and helicopter landing pads, were sent to track the French demonstration. Macron sent gunships armed with a cannon. So here we have the old traditional hatred between the French and English that extends back to the 13th century. There was an English invasion of France in 1230, which was a military campaign undertaken by Henry III of England in an attempt to reclaim the English throne’s rights and inheritance to the territories of France held prior to 1224.

The House of Plantagenet was a royal house that originated from the lands of Anjou in France. Plantagenets’ two cadet branches, the houses of Lancaster and York, held the English throne from 1154, with the accession of Henry II at the end of the chaos until 1485, when Richard III died in battle. It was the Plantagenets that transformed England. The Plantagenet kings were forced to negotiate compromises, which led to the establishment of the Magna Carta. During the 15th century, the Plantagenets were defeated in the Hundred Years’ War which led to political, economic, and social problems which included English nobles raising private armies.

Eventually, a rivalry between the House of Plantagenet’s two cadet branches of York and Lancaster led to the famous Wars of the Roses, which lasted for decades. English succession culminated in the Battle of Bosworth Field in 1485 when the reign of the Plantagenets and the English Middle Ages both met their end with the death of King Richard III.

So the rivalry between France and England has remained in the blood. During the negotiations over Brexit, the French always presented the greatest opposition

Beijing Beats New York City


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted May 6, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

A number of people often send nasty emails because they do not like the forecast that China will become the next financial capital of the world. The forecasts we put out are NOT based upon my OPINION. I simply report what the computer projects. This Great Reset is playing right into our forecast, for they are deliberately destroying the economy so they can “BUILD BACK BETTER,” as they like to say.

The problem is that they are ignorant of world history. The victor in war is NOT simply the person who has the largest army. There must be some advantage and that boils down to economics. The one with the strongest economy is the victor because they have the capacity to fund the war.

This is why barbarians could never invade Rome until the Roman Empire’s monetary system began to collapse following the capital of Emperor VBalerian I in 260AD. Even Alexander the Great was able to take the Persians because they lost their greatest and were unable to defend against a well-supported army. The South lost against the North in the American Civil War because the North was industrial whereas the South was primarily agrarian.

Deliberately destroying our economy so they can “Build Back Better” while creating food shortages and trying to end raising cattle because of CO2, has set the West on the course to economic decline. This has made the West vulnerable just as was the case with the Roman Empire.

Now everyone is starting to notice and even CNBC says that China will surpass the United States by 2028. Granted, the analytical field seems to notice trends of this nature only when it smacks them in their face. We published the report “China on the Rise” back in 2018.

Now New York City, thanks to Socialists who think they can keep taxing the rich without end,   lost its title as the home of more billionaires than anywhere else. Beijing has now taken that title. Some people think my reliance on history is foolish. History repeats because human nature is always the same.

Mainz

New York is dying. It is, in trading terms, a major SHORT! NYC is following the same path as Mainz. It was the city of Mainz where the Gutenberg printing press was invented. This created an economic boom and everyone wanted to be in Mainz. The politicians saw the boom and presumed the potential tax revenue was linear and would be endless – judging tomorrow by today’s trend. They began to borrow against what they anticipated would be there forever. As they needed the interest to pay for borrowing and became addicted to debt, they raised taxes.

The taxes kept rising so they killed the economic boom and people began to leave. Mainz followed the typical path as we are doing today. They were no longer paying off debt. They entered the Ponzi scheme – issued new debt to pay off the old in a revolving bond auction. Taxes kept rising and people migrated. The printing press was no longer unique to Mainz. The rich left town, taking their capital and entrepreneurship with them. When Mainz lost the confidence of the bond buyers and could no longer sell new debt to pay for the old, the collapse unfolded. Mainz, like Detroit, defaulted. The creditors sacked the city and it was burned to the ground.

The same precise pattern unfolds every time – WITHOUT EXCEPTION. Why? Human nature never changes. Create career politicians and they will always seek to expand government for that is their power base. All that is left is a nice monument commemorating Guttenberg. Of course, they never tell the full story of Mainz.

New York City is making all the same mistakes like clockwork. They think people can be exploited without end. There comes a point where it no longer is beneficial to work as a slave. Why invest in anything if those in power simply want to take whatever you invent.

I pray for 2032 to end corruption and drive a stake through the heart of republican forms of government. We need a new path and anyone who calls for exploiting one class to benefit another should be subject to life imprisonment where they can enjoy carefree and tax-free living in a world of equality.

Shortage of Chickens


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The orchestrated COVID pandemic to change the economy for the BUILD BACK BETTER Great Reset has set in motion food shortages that are now emerging. Farmers have had to plow their crops under, and one had to kill over 30,000 chickens because they simply could not get them to market. Sales of produced collapsed as much as 75% in 2020 compared to 2019 in some areas. Even in Europe, the cold weather has destroyed crops. As I have said, these morons look at the world only in a single dimension. They had no idea that locking people down to lower CO2 meant that they were also cutting off the supply chain in technology to food.

There is a shortage now of chickens, and don’t worry, it will move to beef as well. Add their scheme for a cyber attack, and the future looks really crazy because nobody will lock these people up, no less dare to investigate them. So be warned. This will get far worse post-2024. We should all send a thank you note to Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates for starters.

Fake News Knows What It is Doing


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I wrote to the ________ news and pointed out that you had a computer model that beat all the models that Gates-funded to use to create these lockdowns. They never responded.

HJ

ANSWER: Oh it is worse than that. One of the top five newspapers in the world wanted to write a story about Socrates and its forecasts with respect to COVID. We spoke, and then two weeks later, the powers from above said NO!

It is not a question of them not being aware. They know precisely about Socrates, yet the powers that be give directions not to cover Socrates, for it goes against the narrative. Perhaps if enough people wrote to Fox or the Hill, they might report something. But they too are afraid of stepping into this mess, for they might drown in a swamp filled with quicksand.

Supply v Demand – Does It Always Work?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted May 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You say that wheat fell during the Great Depression during the Dust Bowl when supply would have declined. This makes no sense. Would you address that question?

KL

ANSWER: Your problem is typical in analysis. It appears that 99% of the people always try to reduce some event to a single cause and effect. Everything is connected like a line of dominoes. You are not just pushing over a single one. The action has a ripple effect that moves through the entire world economy and is not even restricted to a single nation.

I do not make stuff up to try to prove a point. I have been curious to discover how things really work. When I say we have the largest database in the world, I am not joking. Just as I have been a collector of various things, that includes data. It is easy to find a yearly chart of wheat, but not daily or weekly during that period. Here is how wheat responded during the Great Depression on a weekly basis. Note that it peaked about 4 weeks before the stock market. Then you see a huge gap down in 1931.

This was caused by the wholesale defaults of just about every nation. Some went into a moratorium and suspended payments on their debt like Britain. But most outright defaulted and you can buy their bonds usually on eBay.

Here is the impact of the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis. The dollar soared on our index from roughly the 112 level to nearly 160. That was high which exceeded even World War I levels. That illustrates just how high the dollar rallied. Because wheat was priced in dollars, it fell in terms of dollars while rising in terms of other currencies because of their defaults.

The Federal Reserve raised rates in 1931 during the Depression because they feared that the dollar would collapse because confidence in government globally collapsed.

Now, look at the unemployment. It soared as well. Because people lost their jobs, demand declined with supply. So you see, this is a far more complex issue than meets the eye. It is also why I say governments should NEVER be allowed to manipulate the economy. They always focus on a single cause and effect and never look at the whole.

Consequently, while supply contracts, your assumption that price should rise is predicated upon demand remaining the same or rising. Therein lies your answer. That is simply a false assumption.

Sunday Talks, Rand Paul Discusses Big Picture Ramifications From Current JoeBama Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 25, 2021 | Sundance | 137 Comments

Senator Rand Paul appears on Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ongoing ramification from current leftist policy as being produced on Capitol Hill.  The interview begins with Senator Paul discussing the leftist definitions of ‘infrastructure’ and how left-wing groups are beneficiaries of trillions of taxpayer funds.

On the economic ramifications Senator Paul notes the impact of massive capital gains increases and how increasing corporate income taxes only provides incentives for national companies to establish themselves overseas to avoid tax liability.  The multinational corps, those already positioned overseas, do not have the same risk exposure to corporate tax increases, thus they do not oppose legislation that hurts national business and small U.S. corporations.

Overall the points made by Rand Paul are all valid; however, those in DC still hold back from pointing out the intent of the JoeBama group – that’s frustrating.  This game where incompetence is claimed under the guise of ‘benefit of doubt’ is a severe weakness within the GOP.  The refusal to aggressively confront Obama 3.0 is beyond frustrating.

Anyone who believes Democrats own exclusive opposition to the America First principles are completely ignoring the deliberate construct of the republican party.  There are just as many -if not more- natural enemies within the Republican apparatus as there are within the Democrat group. “America-First” is antithetical to the UniParty.

The frustration amid the MAGA community is valid.  Everything about it is righteous.  The mechanisms that run the system in DC must be deconstructed if we are to win the battles and the war against this massive enemy.  We have the largest coalition of American patriots on our side; however, there are only a handful of representatives willing to confront with the needed ferocity.

Multinationals want control; some call that corporatism…. but the names are moot. Multinationals want control, and capitalism does not allow them control; that is why multinationals do not want capitalism. Multinationals use lobbyists to generate regulations that stall competition.

Multinationals do not want competition; they are, by nature of their interest, anti-capitalists.

This misunderstanding is everywhere.

Most people think when they vote for a federal politician -a House or Senate representative- they are voting for a person who will go to Washington DC and write or enact legislation. This is the old-fashioned “schoolhouse rock” perspective based on decades past.

There is not a single person in congress writing legislation or laws. In modern politics not a single member of the House of Representatives or Senator writes a law, or puts pen to paper to write out a legislative construct. This simply doesn’t happen.

Over the past several decades a system of constructing legislation has taken over Washington DC that more resembles a business operation than a legislative body.

The for-profit groups (mostly multinational corporations) have a purpose in Washington DC to shape policy, legislation and laws favorable to their interests. They have fully staffed offices just like any business would – only their ‘business‘ is getting legislation for their unique interests.

These groups are filled with highly-paid lawyers who represent the interests of the entity and actually write laws and legislation briefs.

In the modern era this is actually the origination of the laws that we eventually see passed by congress. Within the walls of these buildings within Washington DC is where the ‘sausage’ is actually made.  Again, no elected official is usually part of this law origination process.

Almost all legislation created is not ‘high profile’, they are obscure changes to current laws, regulations or policies that no-one pays attention to.  The passage of the general bills within legislation is not covered in media.  Ninety-nine percent of legislative activity happens without anyone outside the system even paying any attention to it.

Once the corporation (multinational) or representative organizational entity has written the law they want to see passed – they hand it off to the lobbyists.

The lobbyists are people who have deep contacts within the political bodies of the legislative branch, usually former House/Senate staff or former House/Senate politicians themselves.

The lobbyist takes the written brief, the legislative construct, and it’s their job to go to congress and sell it.  “Selling it” means finding politicians who will accept the brief, sponsor their bill and eventually get it to a vote and passage.

Corporations (special interest group) write the legislation. Lobbyists take the law and go find politician(s) to support it. Politicians get support from their peers using tenure and status etc. Eventually, if things go according to norm, the legislation gets a vote.

Within every step of the process there are expense account lunches, dinners, trips, venue tickets and a host of other customary financial way-points to generate/leverage a successful outcome. The amount of money spent is proportional to the benefit derived from the outcome.

The important part to remember is that the origination of the entire process is EXTERNAL to congress.

Congress does not write laws or legislation, special interest groups do. Lobbyists are paid, some very well paid, to get politicians to go along with the need of the legislative group. When a House or Senate member becomes educated on the intent of the legislation, they have attended the sales pitch; and when they find out the likelihood of support for that legislation; they can then position their own (or their families) financial interests to benefit from the consequence of passage. It is a process similar to insider trading on Wall Street, except the trading is based on knowing who will benefit from a legislative passage.

When we understand the business of DC, we understand the difference between legislation with a traditional purpose and modern legislation with a financial and political agenda.

If you know a better solution to this mess than repeal of the 17th amendment, I am all ears.

If, as the constitution outlined, the Senate were still a place where all legislation required a 2/3 majority for passage; and if, as the constitution outlined, the Senate were a body filled with representatives selected by State Houses instead of popular election – then perhaps Senators could not be purchased by multinational interests.  Alas it is not.

Passage of the 17th amendment took away the very intentional roadblock of the Republican framework that Jefferson spoke of when he called it a saucer to cool the hot emotional tea of short-sighted legislation.  The constitution outlined consent as “two-thirds” (66), which was progressively watered down to become “three-fifths” (60) as the majority rule; and substantively, as it now stands according to democrats objectives, one-half plus one (51).

We are on the precipice and the GOP operate as if the constitution burning can be restored if they just reach across the aisle more.

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