Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Marty, Socrates is truly astonishing. You also called a high in gold and said this was indicating a Trump victory, for he is anti-war, so gold would decline, not rally. Every market has performed as you laid out, and I can now see how it all dovetails to support the political forecast. You are teaching us what nobody has ever done—connecting the dots. There is no random walk. You have proven that.
I can’t wait for this weekend. I agree. Nobody has accomplished anything close to you.
HK
REPLY: There is indeed no random walk. That is the explanation given by people who cannot see the world as a whole. Socrates has taught me a lot, as have my clients. If I did not have clients worldwide, I probably would never have seen the dots to connect. I think we are expanding the capacity for the virtual attendees. For those looking to attend, the hotel is fully sold out. You probably could squeeze in, but you must book at another hotel. Even the visitors to this site has nearly doubled today.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.
Sales declined 3.5% on an annual basis. Existing homes declined 1% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million on an annual basis. Home sales have not been this slow in the US since October 2010 when the housing market was recovering from the real estate crash.
Home prices are continuing to increase, rising for the 15th consecutive month. The median home price in America is 3% higher than one year ago at $404,500. The higher average home price has left many would-be buyers out of the market. First-time buyers accounted for only 26% of homes sold last month, but historically, they usually compose about 40% of all sales. Home prices have increased 49% in the past five years since the pandemic.
Inventory has been increasing with 1.39 million available properties, an astounding 23% increase from September 2023.
Mortgage rates on the 30-year reached their highest level in three months but remain well below last year’s high of around 8%
I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.
Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The job market is cooling across America, slowing to a pace not seen since late 2020 during COVID lockdowns. Now, one must remember that natural disasters decimated numerous states. Yet, I tend to look at two things – public sector growth and manufacturing.
Unemployment stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers held steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics revised their calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000 and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in that two-month period.
The US has been desperate to revive its manufacturing sector. The Biden-Harris Administration had promised to create one million new manufacturing jobs in 2024, but 10 months of data later, and it seems not a single position was created. The BLS admitted that manufacturing jobs fell by 577,000 since March 2022. In October, the sector loss 49,000, largely attributed to the Boeing strike.
So, America is struggling to produce goods to sell. In the meantime, the federal government bulked up the public sector by 40,000 jobs. Those are 40,000 employees relying on taxpayer funds and pensions in a sector that only SUBTRACTS from GDP. Biden and Harris have increased the public sector by about 43,000 positions on average every month for the past 12 months.
The first release of data is always the most optimistic. The country is clearly on the wrong track as we are endlessly spending money on big government while the private sector is weakening.
Posted originally on Nov 2, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Next week, those attending the World Economic Conference and Virtual Plus can access this report from your portal. It concerns the prospect of capital controls that governments routinely implement during periods of war to prevent capital flight. This also includes some other capital controls imposed for other reasons. It is a guide to what to expect from our claimed “representative” Republics that represent only the self-interest of those in power and never the population.
This report will be available to non-attendees and non-virtual Attendees for $300 after the conference.
Posted originally on Oct 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
According to data provided by the Commerce Department, the US economy grew 2.8% during Q3, beneath expectations of a 3.1% increase. GDP has slowed from the 3% posting during Q2.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 3.7% last quarter, marking the strongest performance since Q1 of 2023. The US federal government’s spending is factored into growth, albeit another reason why these data points never provide a true indicator of economic growth in the long term. The government managed to increase spending by an astounding 9.7% — 14.9% of which was spent on defense.
Personal consumption expenditures price index increased 1.5%, providing a bit of good news for Fed who looks and causing optimism about a rate drop during the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Core PCE remained at 2.2%.
Consumer spending, one-third of US GDP, has risen, but Americans are spending more on less. The government is not releasing the true figures or painting an accurate picture of the economy. Sure, consumer spending is up, but personal savings fell to 4.8% from 5.2%. Americans are spending more, but they are also falling into debt.
The US remains the safe haven for international capital. We saw a 5.87% increase in capital flows to the US on a monthly basis based on the Global Market Watch, and Socrates predicts it will continue to increase.
Posted originally on Oct 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I reported how the US deficitreached the third-highest on record after surpassing $1.83 trillion. Instead of questioning why the deficit rose 8% in a single year, the government believes that the taxpayers should simply pay MORE into the failing system. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared that she is not concerned about the widening deficit. Why? The Internal Revenue Service will hunt down citizens to close the gap.
Yellen said that IRS agents plan to collect $2 trillion in unpaid taxes, surpassing the measly deficit. I do believe some think that statements like this mean the government is going to hunt down major corporations and billionaires. That would not be ethical either, but records show that the main group audited last year was the middle class. This way of thinking is extremely dangerous. The US government is desperate for funds and they MUST shake down their citizens to recover what they can. It’s a canon event in the rise and fall of civilizations – soaring taxes are a guarantee when dealing with the eventually fall of a nation.
“By making sure that we stay on a sound fiscal path and that does require deficit reduction over the coming years,” Yellen said. “I believe it’s very important that we remain focused on keeping the real net interest cost of the debt near historic levels and certainly under 2%.” Yellen praised the Biden-Harris regime for “giving the Internal Revenue Service the resources that they need to close what is estimated over the next decade to be a $7 trillion tax gap.”
The Inflation Reduction Act was never intended to reduce inflation or HELP Americans. Yellen said earlier that the act was passed to push forth climate change iniatives which are all a ploy to collect more taxes and control the global population. IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel praised the Inflation Reduction Act for giving the IRS the ability to hunt absolutely everyone. “With the help of Inflation Reduction Act funding, we are adding focus and resources to areas of compliance concern, including high-income and high-wealth individuals, partnerships and corporations,” Werfel said.
They call it underpayment. Even if you pay your taxes, they will punish you for paying too much or not enough. Either way, the IRS can successful extort money from any American. The Treasury declared that they “recovered” $1.3 billion in taxes last year rom the “wealthy.”
Last year, billionaire class was not targeted, as 80% of all audits were on filers earning under $1 million. Yes, there are far more taxpayers in the middle and lower brackets. However, the IRS merely claimed they would prioritize hunting higher earners; they never explicitly said they wouldn’t come after ALL Americans.
The entire hunt for taxation has been a war on the middle class, who is unable to file massive write-offs and cannot afford to continue paying Uncle Sam on every incoming and outgoing transaction, plus savings, income, and everything else from birth to death. Washington effectively lowered our purchasing power by fueling inflation through absurd fiscal and social policies, and now they are asking people to give them even more of whatever money that remains. Washington continues to spend taxpayer funds on initiatives that the people have never once voted on.
It will become far easier for governments to extort the people when they introduce CBDC. Uncle Sam will think you have hidden any cash on hand from him, cash that belongs to him, once they force us to digitize our dollars. They are also thinking of new ways to shake down the public. A tax on realized gains would destroy absolutely everyone. It is completely absurd that those in power believe the people could cover their spending. No one stops to take accountability. There are simply NO mirrors in Washington. Inflation will continue to rise above GDP and we will enter a period of stagflation. This is why I have warned countless times that private and tangible assets are a safer bet compared to cash as we move into 2028.
Posted originally on Oct 23, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The United States Treasury reported a $1.833 trillion budget deficit for the fiscal year ending September 30. This marks the third-highest deficit on record, but it is solely due to government spending. The highest deficit happened in 2020 during the disaster of COVID, and second behind is the clean-up year of 2021 when the deficit dropped to $2.772 trillion. Bidenomics is nearly as harmful as global one-in-a-lifetime disaster.
The deficit widened 8% or $138 billion from the reported $1.695 trillion in 2023. The department stated that a large chunk of spending went to the reversed decision to forgive $330 billion in student loans after the Supreme Court declared Biden’s attempted bribe to young voters unconstitutional. Democrats are now blaming Republicans for “tax cuts that led to low revenue levels that increased the debt.” Their spending is always our cross to carry, and we will inevitably be punished through taxation.
The government is to blame on both sides. We are funding three major wars yet claim we are not a nation at war. America spends as if it has endless money. Why? Because the US Treasury knows it can never pay off all its debt. It doesn’t intend to pay it off and it is highly likely they let the reigns loose long ago since the actual number matters not. Now we are being crippled by the interest alone on these debts. There was a 30% annual increase in spending on interest alone on the public debt. The government spent $890 billion on interest alone. For reference, the US defense budget was $866 billion last year. Interest rates rise in times of war, sinking the nation further into debt. Again, this is not isolated to America as we will see defaults cripple both nations in Asia and Europe before reaching American soil, hence the capital movement into US equities.
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