Tag Archives: End of money. Default on US Bonds

Apr 1 2025

CBO Issues Dire Forecast for US Debt


Posted originally on Mar 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

The US Congressional Budget Office is warning that the federal deficit has hit a point of no return. It is far too late to cut wasteful government spending. Politicians have kicked the can down the road for far too long and left us with a financial system held up through perpetual borrowing that cannot be reversed.

The CBO’s long-term forecast shows the federal deficit rising to 7.3% of GDP by 2055, but the figure is currently at 6.2% as of 2025 and this is an optimistic report. In contrast, the 30-year average from 1995 to 2024 was 3.9% of GDP. Public debt is projected to hit 156% of GDP by 2055, up from the 100% of GDP we face today.

Now the CBO mentioned that Trump’s tariffs could negatively impact the economy but we reached the point of no return years ago. Trump cannot be blamed for the current situation in the least. “Mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook,” the Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 stated.

The Baby Boomer generation is at or nearing retirement and Social Security benefits are currently at 5.2% of GDP. The CBO believes this will reach 6.1% of GDP in 2055 but fail to recognize the fund is drying up. The Ponzi Scheme will come crashing down.

Interest expenditures alone have hit 3.2% of GDP as America. In 2024, the US spent $881 billion simple to finance its massive debt, and that figure is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. We spend more on servicing debt than we do on defense spending at this point.

Raising taxes cannot solve this massive issue, but that will not prevent the government from attempting to extort the people to cover their fiscal mismanagement. The government knows it is trapped and will continue to hold off on paying down their debt as long as possible. Worse still, other nations are decreasing their investments in Treasuries as we have seen with China and Russia. Japan is our main buyer now but they have their own colossal problems.

The debt crisis is global. America is far from the only nation facing an outright default, and as I have warned, we will see the pieces crumble one by one with America being the last frontier. This is precisely why Europe wants war because they are attempting to delay the inevitable collapse. Some believe they can confiscate Russian natural resources and save the day, but that is simply neocon fanfiction.

The ECM has pinpointed key turning points in the global economy, and the next phase of this crisis is unfolding right before our eyes. The sovereign debt crisis is inevitable, and as we approach 2028–2032, we will see capital flow away from the West once confidence in government collapses.

Apr 1 2025

Major Cuts to HHS – Spending Has Not Improved America’s Health Crisis


Posted originally on Mar 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Healthcare Spending Compare To Other Countries chart 2021 768x566 1

The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced plans to cut its workforce by a quarter, eliminating 10,000 positions. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has vowed to gut the entire agency in his effort to Make America Healthy Again, vowing that eliminating excess bureaucracy will allow the agency “to do more with less.”

The agency plans to cut $11 billion in public health funding, and while Kennedy admits there will be a “painful period” ahead, one must look at the numbers and realize that these inflated agencies have not led to improved health care. “All of that money,” Kennedy said of the department’s $1.7 trillion yearly budget, “has failed to improve the health of Americans.”

America is one of the sickest nations in the developed world. Critics believe that these cuts will damage public health, but America is spending nearly 18% of its GDP on health care initiatives without results. The average American will not live to see 80 years of age. The average life expectancy stands around 76.4 years, according to the CDC, with women living an average of 79.3 years and men expiring sooner at 73.5. Those figures have been steadily declining each year. In comparison, the global average is 82.5 years.

The US ranks 32 out of 38 OCED nations for life expectancy. Yet, the US spends far more per capita on health compared to other developed nations. In 2023, America spent $13,432 per capita. In comparison, Switzerland and Germany, the second and third highest spenders, only pay a bit over $7,000 per capita and have healthier populations.

Young Americans (25-29) are dying at a rate 3X higher than their peers in advanced economies. Kennedy’s main platform has been to speak on behalf of the children of America, who are facing increased risks of illness compared to past generations. Kennedy claims 66% of children suffer from some form of a health condition, with other estimates putting this figure closer to 40%.

The Biden Administration increased the health department budget by 38% and inflated the workforce by 17%. Additional funding did not address the root causes of America’s health epidemic. Kennedy plans to consolidate 28 divisions into 15, and will cut regional offices from 10 to 5. A more cohesive agency will provide a “new era of responsiveness and a new era of effectiveness,” as we cannot continue funding measures that are not producing results.

Apr 1 2025

The Danger of Traveling with Gold


Posted originally on Mar 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Gold Bars CloseUp

Two men were pulled over while driving on I-20 in Texas, carrying $250,000 worth of gold bars. US law permits and encourages law enforcement to confiscate assets. Civil asset forfeiture enables the government to simply seize assets and declare that the owner is guilty of money laundering before any due process occurs.

“We have to be able to prove what that criminal activity was, in other words how they got the money that they laundered. A lot of times that’s hard when your case starts with a traffic stop,” DA Tonda Curry said. Officers and drug sniffing dogs searched the men and their vehicle but found nothing aside from the gold. Curry initially attempted to pin the men with money laundering charges but could not make a case. The DA then determined that the men were involved in some criminal organization “that defrauds the elderly with investment-type scams.”

Since they were instantly charged with a crime, the law permitted the officers to confiscate the gold. “So he can’t give it back to them and let them go on down the road, it’s not theirs,” the DA explained, saying that charging the men with a civil case would be easier to prove than an actual criminal investigation.

CivilAssetForfeiture

“Even if I can’t say exactly what [crime] it was, why should they be able to profit off of it? Why should it not go back into fighting crime in our communities?” Curry said.

Civil asset forfeiture is blatant legal theft. The lawyers for the men received 24 oz of the stolen gold, and the county confiscated the rest that was worth an estimated $195,000.

“For a small county like ours, it’s a big, big relief for the taxpayers,” she said. “Even if I can’t say exactly what [crime]  it was, why should they be able to profit off of it? Why should it not go back into to fighting crime in our communities?”

The entire premise of civil forfeiture is that the government can seize your assets without even charging you with a crime, let alone convicting you in a court of law. The government deploys law enforcement to act as their mob collectors, and again, no crime needs to be committed. This happens regularly, and the person who happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time is immediately GUILTY until proven innocent. They have taken people off trains, planes, traffic stops– you name it–and accused them of criminal activity. If the government finds you with a tangible asset they want, they can take it from you, and it is then your responsibility and obligation to prove that you did not commit a crime.

The government has openly taken gold, cash, homes, cars, and even businesses in the name of money laundering, or in this case, an unnamed crime that they did not need to prove because the men happened to be Chinese nationals. So they stole a quarter-million from them and deported them back to China, then cheered that the funds would help the local government.

Law enforcement agencies no longer act as protectors of the public but as revenue collectors, seizing property from people who, in many cases, have done nothing wrong.

Mar 24 2025

Mississippi Eliminates the Income Tax


Posted originally on Mar 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

1913 Income Tax

Good news for the people of Mississippi—lawmakers have finally removed the state income tax. Mississippi is now joins Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Washington, Texas, and Wyoming in eliminating this excessive and predatory taxation practice.

The first income tax was created in 1861 during the Civil War as a mechanism to finance the war effort. In addition, Congress passed the Internal Revenue Act in 1862, which created the Bureau of Internal Revenue, an eventual predecessor to the IRS. The Bureau of Internal Revenue placed excise taxes on everything from tobacco to jewelry. However, the income tax did not last and was not renewed in 1872. In the Springer v. United States 102 US 586 (1881), the Supreme Court upheld the income tax.

The origin of the current income tax on individuals is generally cited as the passage of the 16th Amendment, passed by Congress on July 2, 1909, and ratified February 3, 1913. It was on June 16, 1909, President William Howard Taft, in an address to the Sixty-first Congress, proposed a two percent federal income tax on corporations by way of an excise tax and a constitutional amendment to allow the previously enacted income tax.

Once this Marxist concept of direct taxation was created, then the government must know everything we do, track us for it assumes we all cheat and lie, and in the process, it is hunting money globally to the point that world economic growth has been declining.

Those against Mississippi eliminating the income tax are proponents of big government. They are concerned that the lost revenue will hurt the public sector and low-income residents will be disproportionately burdened as other taxes are likely to rise. Yet, eliminating the income tax will directly lead to Mississippians receiving a larger take-home pay. Businesses, especially small businesses, end up taking on this tax as is passed through from entities to the individual owner who is unable reinvest those funds into his or her company. Businesses will now have the ability to become more competitive and attract a more desirable workforce.

The state has until 2037 to determine how to manage its budget without robbing its citizens and punishing workers. Income tax will fall from 4% to 3% in 2027 and then will see a 0.3% reduction until it is eliminated entirely.

Income tax is a relic of failed economic policies that governments refuse to abandon because it gives them direct control over the wealth of the people. When you tax income, you reduce incentives to work, invest, and innovate. Governments use the tax as a reason to continue perpetual spending that always leads to deficits. States do not need this tax to function. States need to operate within their means to function without punishing the people for fiscal mismanagement.

Mar 23 2025

SCOOP: OMB Will Start Impoundment, Steve Bannon Discusses Existential Threat Of Debt


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Mar 22 2025, at 1:00 pm EST

Mar 21 2025

Why the Fed Cannot Reduce Rates to Offset Tariffs


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Interest Rates Percent

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related.

Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This cannot be offset by lowering interest rates, as rate cuts stimulate borrowing and investment rather than addressing price increases caused by trade barriers. In fact, lower interest rates can exacerbate the problem by weakening the currency, making imports even more expensive, further fueling inflation.

Historically, tariffs have led to stagflation—rising prices combined with economic stagnation—rather than the demand-driven inflation central banks typically target. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of the 1930s, for example, severely disrupted global trade and worsened the Great Depression. Similarly, Trump’s trade war with China during his first term did not lead to any economic boom but instead forced businesses to adjust supply chains, raising costs for consumers.

Lowering interest rates in this environment offsets capital flows, decreasing confidence and weakening the purchasing power of the currency. The result is a cycle in which consumers face higher costs while the central bank loses the little control it has to manage inflation. The idea that the Fed could actually control inflation is based on outdated Keynesian economics concepts that were drafted when the US had a balanced budget. Now, most demand comes from the government itself, the largest borrower and creator of debt. This is why Jerome Powell spoke out against Joe Biden for creating the largest spending package in US history and multiplying the public sector. The government will never pay off its debts, and the interest payments on that debt alone have been astronomical.

Relying on rate cuts to counter tariff inflation ignores the root cause of the issue. The real solution lies in reducing trade barriers and not relying on tariffs to increase the demand for domestically made goods.

Mar 21 2025

Transitory Tariff Inflation?


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Powell Jerome

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects inflation to be “transitory,” a word reminiscent of America’s situation three years ago when the Fed repeatedly urged the public to underplay inflation as it would improve. Conditions did not improve, as we later learned, and the Fed will have a hard time convincing the markets that this time is different.

“It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation, if it’s going to go away quickly, without action by us, if it’s transitory,” Powell said. “That can be the case in the case of tariff inflation. I think that would depend on the tariff inflation moving through fairly quickly and, critically, as well on inflation expectations being well anchored.”

Consumer spending is crucial to the US economy. Retail spending in February increased 0.2% after declining 1.2% in January, according to the Department of Commerce, but fell beneath predictions for a 0.6% monthly increase. Total sales from December 2024 to February 2025 rose 3.7% from the same period one year ago, but growth remains minimal.

People do not spend when confidence is low. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated a 10% decline in consumer sentiment this March compared to February, citing a “high level of uncertainty.”

The National Federation of Retailers stated that February sales had slowed as a direct result of tariff threats. “Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”

Retail is America’s largest employer in the public sector, adding $5.3 trillion to annual GDP. One in four Americans, 55 million people, are employed through this crucial sector.

Naturally, the cost of living is causing much upheaval as people spend more on less and save what they can. It would be ignorant to say that tariff disputes do not have a direct negative impact on the economy. Powell likely coined a new term, “tariff inflation,” which I expect we will hear more frequently.

Mar 20 2025

Schumer Mocks “Greedy” Americans for Questioning Taxation


Posted originally on Mar 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Minority Leader of the US Senate Chuck Schumer admitted on national television what the government thinks of the people—your money belongs to them. “Their attitude is, ‘I made my money all by myself. How dare your government take my money from me?’” Schumer stated in a mocking tone.

“I don’t want to pay taxes. Or, I built my company with my bare hands. How dare your government tell me how I should treat my customers, the land and water that I own, or my employees?” Schumer, with an estimated net worth of $81 million, continued. “They hate government. Government’s a barrier to people, a barrier to stop them from doing things. They want to destroy it. We are not letting them do it, and we’re united. Okay.” This further emphasized his view that certain individuals see the government as an obstacle and wish to dismantle it.”

People hate the government due to career politicians like Schumer who believe they have the right to control the people through excessive taxation. Schumer and others who constantly push for tax increases genuinely believe that the people are stealing from the government. Forget that you pay taxes on everything you own, sell, and save—the government needs MORE to fund agendas that the people do not vote on.

DOGE has been highlighting how utterly irresponsible and reckless government spending has become. No one voted to fund transgender care in Bangladesh, for example, or the infinite funds sent to secure foreign borders. The Constitutional protection of no taxation without representation has been eliminated. It matters not how much the government collects from the people as it will NEVER be sufficient to cover their spending, let alone the national debt that is a ticking time bomb.

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Then you have people like Chuck Schumer who have NEVER held a job outside of politics and could not be further removed from the valid concerns of the people he claims to represent. He has made his fortune through LOBBYING and CORRUPTION off the backs of those who actually WORK and contribute to our economy. These are the swamp creatures who repeatedly raise our taxes, year after year, and hypocritically mock us for desiring a better quality of life.

Direct taxation is what the Founding Fathers in the US forbid. Politicians are destroying the world economy and this issue is certainly not unique to America. The Common Reporting Standard (CRS) is an information standard for the automatic exchange of tax and financial information on a global level. It was put together by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) back in 2014. Its purpose was to hunt down tax evasion primarily for the European Union. They took the concept from the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which imposed liabilities on foreign institutions if they did not report what Americans were doing outside the country.

The globalist trend toward Marxism where “you will own nothing and be happy” is precisely why our computer believes we are in for a complete change in the structure of government. Beforehand, we will see governments attempt to collect MORE from the people through new and increased taxes. The left wishes to increase the public sector so that everyone is utterly dependent on the government for survival. CBDC will create a cashless society to ensure governments can track and collect money instantaneously, as the main premise behind CBDC is the belief that the people should be paying at least 35% more to our overlords.

Nations crumble when governments continually rob the people through taxation.

Mar 20 2025

Powell – The Fed- Inflation – Recession


Posted originally on Mar 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Powell Jerome

Jerome Powell kept rates unchanged as our computer was projecting. However, he did weigh in on the state of the US economy, pointing out that Donald Trump’s policies were one reason why inflation is turning back up. He also reduced the Fed’s 2025 growth projection, noting that uncertainty around the slowing economy is increasing. The Fed is well aware of the Economic Confidence Model. Both Canada and the Fed started to lower rates when the ECM was turned down last May.

935 ECM 2020 2028

Powell said, “Inflation has started to move up,” adding that “there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year.” The confusion people have is that, as I have pointed out before, government employees are counted TWICE in GDP. First as total government spending and second as total personal income. So, firing government employees will have a large,r more exaggerated impact on GDP going forward.

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Investors have reacted negatively to Trump’s global trade war and the mounting retaliation from abroad. What they fail to grasp is that the main reason companies left the USA was over worldwide taxation. American companies were always at a disadvantage when compared to Europeans competing in the world market. The S&P 500 fell nearly 10% from mid-February because of the failure to understand the real trade impact of the high tariffs. Trump, meanwhile, has perhaps promoted recession fears, with the Republican saying the economy faces a “period of transition” and that his tariffs will eventually mean more US jobs.

Civil Work Force

Socialist academic economists do not look beyond our shores and say that Trump’s tariffs will be a significant loss. They compare this to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s, blaming them for the Great Depression because they are incapable of thinking about two variables simultaneously. The tariffs were primarily on agriculture because the Dust Bowl reduced crops, and Europe offered them cheaper. The economy was 41% employed in agriculture, and that is why unemployment soared to 25%. No legislation could have made it rain.

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Powell admitted that recession odds had moved up but weren’t high. He disagreed with the University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp increase in long-term inflation expectations. We agree. Socrates is showing that volatility in inflation was to begin here in 2025 and rise stronger in 2026, but it will be the 2027-2028 period when it becomes critical that it is correlated with our war models.

Mar 20 2025

Gold – Geopolitical vs Inflation


Posted originally on Mar 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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COMMENT: Marty, I spoke to a friend at the __________ bank in NY, and he said on gold, listen to Armstrong. I found that interesting since he was well up there in the Bank’s food chain. He also said this is geopolitical, not inflation.

Kevin

ANSWER: Well, as I have said, gold’s not stopping when it is geopolitical. We gave our price and timing targets. Forget the BS about inflation. Gold is rising for the safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions increase. Banks that do follow us know that we are bullish on bullion’s safe-haven status as anxiety escalates about the global economy. The fact that the Federal Reserve is poised to keep borrowing costs steady realizes that Keynesian Economics is dead. The rise in interest rates no longer stops inflation because government expenditures rise, and politicians will NEVER reduce spending because the Fed raises rates.