On a hot day in 1988, Hansen told this to the US Congress

His Bold Statement Transforms the Debate On Greenhouse Effect

By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD

Published: August 23, 1988

He held up one die representing the climate for the period 1950-1980. Two sides were white for an average summer, and two other sides were blue for colder-than-average summers. The other two sides were red for hotter-than-average summers. Thus, on a roll of the die for that period, there were two chances in six of having a hot summer at any given location in the country.

Then Dr. Hansen picked up the die for the 1990’s and explained:

”If our climate model calculations are approximately correct, the greenhouse warming in the 1990’s will be sufficient to shift the probabilities such that the chance of a hot summer in most of the country will be in the range of 55 to…

According to NOAA, the US is experiencing a just below average temperature year – despite the fact that their own thermometer data shows 2014 as one of the coldest on record.

Here is another proxy which demonstrates that their claims are incorrect. The ratio of record daily minimums to record daily maximums in the US is the second highest since 1930. Only 1993 was higher, and that was due to volcanic dust from Mt. Pinatubo  blocking the sun.

With Antarctic ice growing at record rates for the past 35 years, climate experts tell us that Antarctica is melting down. Sea ice extent has been above normal every day for the past 990 days and is growing at a rate of two Manhattans per day.

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008

NASA has altered their own data to hide the decline globally. The animation below shows changes to published NASA global temperature data from 1981 to the present.

NASA has altered their own data to hide the decline in the US. The animation below shows changes to published NASA US temperature data since 1999.

NASA is hiding the decline the Arctic. The animation below shows recent changes to NASA published Iceland temperatures

In A Challenge for Bryan I put up a simple heat transfer problem and asked for the equations. Bryan elected not to provide these equations. So I provide the answer, but also attempt some enlightenment for people who don’t think the answer can be correct.

As DeWitt Payne noted, a post with a similar problem posted on Wattsupwiththat managed to gather some (unintentionally) hilarious comments.

Here’s the problem again:

Case 1

Spherical body, A, of radius ra, with an emissivity, εa =1. The sphere is in the vacuum of space.

It is internally heated by a mystery power source (let’s say nuclear, but it doesn’t matter), with power input = P.

The sphere radiates into deep space, let’s say the temperature of deep space = 0K to make the maths simpler.

1. What is the equation for the equilibrium surface temperature of the sphere, Ta?

Case 2

The condition of case A…

Summary: The public debate about climate change has evolved, reverting to the standard form of American Politics. Fearmongering, relying on exaggerated and one-side evidence. No only does this chaff further confused the policy debate about this vital issue, it raises another question. We should worry why both Left and Right believe we are most easily influenced by appeals to fear. Perhaps they’re right. As AA tells us, recognition of a problem is the first step to solving it. Perhaps America’s greatest problem is this weakness of its citizens.

Civilization grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.

— H L Mencken, In Defense of Women

 In 1999, Hansen was concerned that the very high quality US temperature record showed 70 years of cooling, while his very low quality, cherry-picked, massively extrapolated global temperature record showed strong warming.

Science Briefs
Whither U.S. Climate?
By James Hansen … August 1999

Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.

How can the absence of clear climate change in the United States be reconciled with continued reports of record global temperature?

in the U.S. there has been little temperature change in the past 50 years, the time of rapidly increasing…