Tag Archives: Job losses

Dec 6 2024

Phillip Patrick: The U.S. Top Priority Should Be Getting Spending Under Control


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Dec 5, 2024 at 1:30 pm EST

Nov 15 2024

Make America Rich Again: The Obvious Case for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Nov 14, 2024 at 6:30 pm EST

Nov 9 2024

Interview with Alex Krainer and Jesse Day: Are Gold Backed Currencies the Future?


Posted originally on Nov 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong | 

Nov 7 2024

Gold & Connecting the Dots


Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

GCNYNF D Tech 11 6 24

COMMENT: Marty, Socrates is truly astonishing. You also called a high in gold and said this was indicating a Trump victory, for he is anti-war, so gold would decline, not rally. Every market has performed as you laid out, and I can now see how it all dovetails to support the political forecast. You are teaching us what nobody has ever done—connecting the dots. There is no random walk. You have proven that.

I can’t wait for this weekend. I agree. Nobody has accomplished anything close to you.

HK

REPLY: There is indeed no random walk. That is the explanation given by people who cannot see the world as a whole. Socrates has taught me a lot, as have my clients. If I did not have clients worldwide, I probably would never have seen the dots to connect. I think we are expanding the capacity for the virtual attendees. For those looking to attend, the hotel is fully sold out. You probably could squeeze in, but you must book at another hotel. Even the visitors to this site has nearly doubled today.

Nov 4 2024

Home Sales Reach 14-Year Low in the US


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

RealEstate

The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.

Sales declined 3.5% on an annual basis. Existing homes declined 1% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million on an annual basis. Home sales have not been this slow in the US since October 2010 when the housing market was recovering from the real estate crash.

Home prices are continuing to increase, rising for the 15th consecutive month. The median home price in America is 3% higher than one year ago at $404,500. The higher average home price has left many would-be buyers out of the market. First-time buyers accounted for only 26% of homes sold last month, but historically, they usually compose about 40% of all sales. Home prices have increased 49% in the past five years since the pandemic.

Inventory has been increasing with 1.39 million available properties, an astounding 23% increase from September 2023.

Mortgage rates on the 30-year reached their highest level in three months but remain well below last year’s high of around 8%

I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

Nov 4 2024

The October Jobs Report – USA


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Jobs

The job market is cooling across America, slowing to a pace not seen since late 2020 during COVID lockdowns. Now, one must remember that natural disasters decimated numerous states. Yet, I tend to look at two things – public sector growth and manufacturing.

Unemployment stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers held steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics revised their calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000 and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in that two-month period.

The US has been desperate to revive its manufacturing sector. The Biden-Harris Administration had promised to create one million new manufacturing jobs in 2024, but 10 months of data later, and it seems not a single position was created. The BLS admitted that manufacturing jobs fell by 577,000 since March 2022. In October, the sector loss 49,000, largely attributed to the Boeing strike.

1 Big Government

So, America is struggling to produce goods to sell. In the meantime, the federal government bulked up the public sector by 40,000 jobs. Those are 40,000 employees relying on taxpayer funds and pensions in a sector that only SUBTRACTS from GDP. Biden and Harris have increased the public sector by about 43,000 positions on average every month for the past 12 months.

The first release of data is always the most optimistic. The country is clearly on the wrong track as we are endlessly spending money on big government while the private sector is weakening.