Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Oct 31 2025

Seoul and Washington Pen $950 Billion Deal


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

South Korean ECM 2023 1 8.6 wave

Washington and Seoul brokered a historic $950 billion deal, bringing the two nations closer in both trade and military alliance. South Korea will pay $350 billion upfront to lower tariffs implemented by the USA. Hundreds of billions will flow between the nations as trade once again acts as the greatest diplomat.

Auto exports from South Korea will go down to 15% from 25%, putting the nation on par with Japanese auto manufacturers. The deal will also help South Korea to compete with Japan on pharmaceuticals, wood products, and aircraft parts. Seoul plans to invest $200 billion in cash into the US, paid out in increments of $20 billion, and will insert another $150 billion into US shipbuilding. South Korea hopes to avoid destabilizing its foreign exchange market and maintain a stable dollar-won ratio; therefore, the payments will continue into January 2029.

The $150 billion direction at ship construction guarantees direct investments from Korean firms. US investment firm Cerberus Management and Hyundai plan to collaborate on a $5 billion initiative. The two nations discussed profit sharing ahead of repaying principal and interest. Commercially viable projects will be prioritized, and Seoul has the ability to adjust its payment schedule if issues arise.

President Lee Jae Myung warmly greeted President Donald Trump during the high-profile event. Trump was presented with a golden crown that is a replica of an ancient golden crown from the historic dynasty of Silla Kingdom. Some see the crown as a subtle nod to the No Kings protests that were occurring in South Korea at the time of the ceremony. Trump became the first US president to receive the Grand Order of Mugunghwa, South Korea’s highest honor. Trump has restored hope in Asia. His historic tour is expected to bring trillions of dollars into the US as Asian nations seek to strengthen ties with the US under the current administration. Asian nations are lining up to conduct business with the US. They too see China as a potential threat and the EU as a weaker alliance. The majority of these trade deals have a military component embedded. This is one of the reasons we will see large capital flows into the US markets in the coming years.

Oct 31 2025

China Purges Military – Loyalty in Question


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Xi JinPing Flag

President Xi Jinping has grown suspicious of his People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Nine senior generals, including CMC Vice-Chair He Weidong and Rocket Force commander Wang Houbin, were dismissed from their positions. The military has never seen such an intense campaign to eliminate corruption and consolidate power.

The precise nature of Xi’s suspicions are unknown, but many believe his caution began in February 2023 during the balloon incident in which a spy balloon found its way into a US military airspace. The incident embarrassed Xi who was unaware of the plan or mistake.

The “Fujian clique,” which is the most influential in the PLA and closest to Xi, came under intense scrutiny. The shake-up intensified in 2024 into the current year. Defense Minister Wei Fenghe was removed from his position in October 2023, and Li Shangfu was subsequently fired from the same role in June 2024. PLA political commissary Miao Hua was eliminated in June of this year.

“Disciplinary violations” and corruption were noted as the official reason for eliminating top officers, but there are deeper issues at play. The two Rocket Force commanders were subsequently fired, leading to suspicions of political instability in the force itself. When armed police units were purged en masse, it was clear that Xi feared a potential political coup. The Eastern Theater Command is crucial for maintaining order in Taiwan, but the majority of troops found themselves under investigation. Can they be trusted to follow the One China policy and adhere to Xi’s rule?

China 1989 2040

The PLA is not a conventional army but rather an armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party that works to guarantee the survival of the current regime. Political commissioners are assigned to every major unit to ensure they are completely in line with the CCP’s command. Eliminating these commissioners signaled to the world that the military was swaying from CCP guidance. Xi Jinping must have the final say.

The Community Party demands absolute loyalty. The sheer number of people eliminated during this purge is unprecedented and shows cracks within the ranks. Armies turn on their governments, historically causing regimes to crumble. China is on the brink of war over Taiwan as America begins to arm the island and offer protection in return for semiconductor chips.

China is no stranger to coups amid its long history. Lin Biao was destined to succeed Mao in 1971 but staged a coup against him. Biao’s plot was revealed, and he was executed. Xi has eliminated all potential successors and elders who may not have a say in the decision-making process.

Oct 31 2025

Gov Healey’s Drug Lord Deputy Director


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey’s deputy director, LaMar Cook, has been running a massive drug operation under her nose. Authorities seized eight kilograms of cocaine that were being delivered to a state government office building. The Massachusetts State Police seized multiple packages totaling 21 kilograms of cocaine.

Authorities arrested Cook during a traffic stop for a “controlled delivery operation” after intercepting the eight kilos of cocaine destined for the Springfield State Office Building. “As the Western Massachusetts Director for Governor Maura Healey, I serve as a key liaison between the state government and the western region of Massachusetts,” the LinkedIn bio for the suspected cocaine trafficker reads. “In this role, I effectively manage and coordinate government initiatives and policies in 4 counties.”

“The governor’s office has been made aware of the arrest of an employee, Lamar Cook. The conduct that occurred here is unacceptable and represents a major breach of the public trust,” Healey’s office said, as the governor has failed to comment on the incident at the time of this writing.

Cook was booked and received a $25,000 bond—a slap on the wrist. Trafficking 200 grams or more of cocaine results in a mandatory minimum sentence of 12 years, for the average person, with a maximum sentence of 20 years. The mandatory fine begins at $50,000 and extends to a maximum of $500,000.

The investigation is ongoing. It is absolutely abhorrent that such a blatant violation of public trust and human welfare would occur within the government. Cook obviously used his influence to expand his drug trafficking ring. Governor Healey will be under investigation to see if she knew or was involved in any form. At best, she wholly failed in her supervisory obligations.

Over 10,000 people overdosed on drugs in the state of Massachusetts from January 2020 to December 2023; cocaine was responsible for 46.1% of all overdoses. How can the current administration battle such a prevalent public health crisis when the drug lords are in neighboring offices?

Oct 31 2025

Known vs Unknown


Posted originally on Oct 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Artificial Inteligence 1

QUESTION: Since you are probably the first to develop a real AI computer decades before anyone heard of AI, what is your opinion of the future of AI? You have been silent on this trend.

NVIDIA M 10 30 25

ANSWER: Look, there is a difference between the short-term from a trading perspective and the long-term. ChatGPT is a language-based model like the others. It is capable of amazing things, but when you pull back the curtain, there is still a significant difference between human intellect and machine learning.

Nvidia became the first company to surpass a $5 trillion valuation, as the firm continues to profit handsomely from the AI boom. However, the world’s largest company has seen its stock skyrocket by more than 44,000% over the last decade—and its record-setting net worth is greater than Germany’s entire 2024 GDP. That said, there is the risk of a short-term high in November. That is set in motion by human emotion – not long-term fundamentals.

I believe language-based models can replace judges and courts, and it would be a vast improvement to replace politicians who like to play with economics as a socialist tool to punish anyone who has more than they do. Riisevelt won with class warfare during the Great Depression, and they have not changed that formula, which is why we are witnessing the decline and fall of the Democratic Party, which has fallen into the trap like Hitler, who demonized the Jews, pushing the conspiracy theory that communism was a Jewish agenda.

AI Artifical Intelligence

The limitations of AI are very stark. This technology is not capable of original discovery. That happens to be reserved for human intellect. When I designed Socrates, I understood this. I had to code how I would think, trade, and actually train Socrates to replace myself. This was not an easy task. However, this was possible only because the field was limited. It was not going to search the Web to find the name of Lady GaGa’s French Bulldog.

Known vs Unknown

They did that at IBM with Big Blue. They thought it would find the cure for cancer – it failed. There is something more that makes our brain function. It is NOT just a neural net; consciousness somehow emerges from all the connections. Granted, they try to mimic the brain and look upon us as simply a biological lifeform without actually understanding that there is something much more profound.

IBM Watson faced significant challenges in the healthcare sector, ultimately leading to its sale in 2022 after a series of failures to deliver on its promises. Despite its initial success on the quiz show Jeopardy!, the application of AI in healthcare proved to be more complex and problematic than anticipated. The difference between Jeopardy and Original Research/Discovery is that the AI Language-Based Models can only uncover what is known. They cannot discover something previously unknown.

Socrates is fundamentally different because I taught it how to discover, not what to discover. IBM failed because it assumed that throwing a pile of data into the system would make it become conscious. That is an excellent plot for a movie, but it is not reality. Perhaps I could do something in the medical field. But it would take me sitting down with real researchers to understand the process of discovery in such a field. Just because I was able to construct a system that monitors the entire world and comprehends how everyone will act in their own self-interest, does not mean I could accomplish the same in medicine.

When we are talking about the rule of law and politics, AI could help eliminate the constant biases and mistakes that cause history to repeat over and over again like Greek tragedy, but the actors merely change – not the plot.

Oct 30 2025

Radioactive Tsunamis


Posted originally on Oct 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Humans continue to devise innovative ways to kill one another. Bullets simply will not suffice in modern warfare. Moscow has developed nuclear torpedo missiles that have the ability to drown entire cities through 1,600-foot-high radioactive tsunamis.

Technology of this nature has never been developed or utilized. “For the first time, we managed not only to launch it with a launch engine from a carrier submarine, but also to launch the nuclear power unit on which this device passed a certain amount of time,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said, calling the test a “huge success.”

Named after the Greek god of the sea, Poseidon is far more powerful than the most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile. Secrecy surrounds the details of the Poseidon, but reports believe that it can carry a 2 megaton warhead. For reference, such a weapon is 150 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

Russia attempted to test this technology in 2022 but failed. Moscow began developing this technology in 2018 after the US pulled out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and began expanding its NATO stronghold across the globe.

A nuclear tsunami would not only flood entire coastal cities, but it would create long-lasting, forever contamination, hence being dubbed a “flying Chernobyl.” The radioactive fallout would be unimaginable. Large areas would be uninhabitable for generations and there is absolutely no way to undo the damage. Casualties could reach several million if detonated near a densely populated coastal city. Death would be immediate for most and slow and prolonged for those exposed to the radiation.

A 1,600-foot tsunami would be one of the largest in modern history. In comparison, the 2011 tsunamis triggered by an earthquake in Japan reached 43 feet. The 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami in Alaska, the highest on record, reached 1,720 feet and was triggered by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake when 30 million cubic meters of rock slid into the Lituya Bay. The tsunami destroyed 1.5 square miles of land and reached elevations above 700 feet. Luckily, it was a relatively isolated area, but the landscape and ecosystem have been permanently altered. Again, that tsunami was merely a natural event, not caused by a nuclear weapon.

I urge anyone willing to listen to read the Peace Proposal—destruction from modern warfare is unimaginable and entirely preventable if those in power agree to peace.

Oct 30 2025

Layoffs Continue – UPS and Amazon Switch to AI


Posted originally on Oct 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

New and seasonal hires are typically announced during Q4. The opposite is unfolding amid stagflation. UPS announced that, despite favorable earnings, it has cut its operational workforce by 34,000 positions, greater than the initial estimate of 20,000, and an additional 14,000 positions from management. Shrinking a package delivery service ahead of the holiday season signals a broader trend.

Artificial intelligence has been employed in operations to meet growing customer demand. The service has loosened its ties with Amazon, delivering 21.2% fewer packages than last quarter while demand during the first half of the year declined by 13%.

Amazon itself will cut its workforce by 14,000 in the short term. Similar to UPS, the reduction in workforce is not a result of reduced earnings. A leaked memo also detailed that Amazon will need 600,000 fewer employees in the years to come. Careful rhetoric will surround the shift as people fear AI technology.

As Amazon detailed in a blog post:

“Some may ask why we’re reducing roles when the company is performing well. Across our businesses, we’re delivering great customer experiences every day, innovating at a rapid rate, and producing strong business results. What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before (in existing market segments and altogether new ones). We’re convinced that we need to be organized more leanly, with fewer layers and more ownership, to move as quickly as possible for our customers and business.”

Schumpeter BusinessCycle Waves of Creative Destruction

This is Joseph Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction at play. Innovation is paving the way for new technology while leaving the past behind.

Amazon itself and online shopping paved the way for the destruction of the brick-and-mortar stores. By 2020, when the world shut down, consumers relied on the internet for most of their shopping. Amazon expanded by 625% from 2010 to 2020 and continues to grow.

The Industrial Revolution expanded, and the Industrialists, led by the auto stocks, drove the 1929 bull market. The invention of the combustion engine led to tractors for farmers, disproving the theories of Malthus that humanity would starve as the population increased. He never understood the cycles of technology, yet he influenced Gates and the Rockefellers. As farmers had tractors, production increased while employment declined.

Horse Carriage

The horse and buggy were replaced with automobiles. As they expanded, the suburbs came alive. Suddenly, people could live in places without trains. The town I grew up in flourished because we had a train station, which enabled people to buy land and move out of the cities. The town I grew up in expanded further from the train station with the automobile.

Creative Destruction Waves cause unemployment to rise, but commerce expands. The shift from humans to AI is happening now. This will disrupt the system, but the world will adapt as it always does.

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Oct 30 2025

US-Japan Rare Earth Minerals Deal


Posted originally on Oct 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Rare Earths

There is perhaps no more critical resource than rare earth minerals. They largely cannot be created or derived in the US and are absolutely essential for not only manufacturing but also maintaining the nation’s military power. Japan recently lifted the trade export ban on military and defense equipment under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who declared a “new golden age” alliance with the United States. Japan has now penned a deal with the US to coordinate efforts to coordinate and fund investment and mining efforts for these crucial minerals.

Washington will fund new mining projects throughout Japan and form a “Rapid Response Group” to ensure emergency mineral deliveries when needed. Tokyo is lifting regulations to permit the US to streamline the process from beginning to end.

The two nations will engage in joint stockpiling efforts to fortify the security of the supply chain. Australia and the European Union may be called upon for joint efforts. However, it will be difficult to form trade around rare earths when China processes over 90% of the global supply.

This is one of the reasons why it would be extremely beneficial for the US to explore a rare earth minerals deal with Russia. The West has foolishly sanctioned the very source of what sustains its technological civilization. Russia holds vast reserves of critical rare earth minerals essential for electronics, defense systems, batteries, and renewable energy. Yet, Western policymakers, driven by ideological hatred, have cut off the very lifeline of modern industry.

These sanctions have only forced Moscow to align closer with Beijing. A genuine peace between the United States and Russia will not emerge from diplomats — it will come through trade. The only workable framework is to tie the economies together so deeply that conflict becomes too costly to sustain.

A closer alliance with Japan will only push the US further away from diplomatic ties with Beijing. It is true that Japan has more untapped minerals than Russia; however, the key here is that they are untapped. The US is looking for immediate relief and the majority of the minerals in Japan are lying deep within the seabed.

Roughly 230 metric tons of cobalt, nickel, and other elements are embedded in the seabed floor near Minamitori Island. Japan required US assistance to fund the extraction, which is extremely costly. Russia’s supply is mostly land-based, and the reserves are proven rather than loosely estimated. Russia’s proven reserves far exceed Japan’s, though Japan could become one of the world’s top suppliers if these projects are successful.

No one can compete with China in rare earth minerals at this time. Collaboration is essential.

Oct 30 2025

The Fed & Interest Rates


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

CBDUSA Y 10 29 2025

QUESTION: Marty, Socrates has been right on target with the Fed and interest rates since it had a Directional Change in 2024. I am correct that the Directional Chabge next year implies higher rates thereafter?

Paul

ANSWER: Yes. This year should be a correction to a low. The resistance stands at 4.5%. As you can see from the cyclical-infused stochastic, this is NOT in crash mode. President Donald Trump says he wants more rate cuts to help buttress a wavering US economy.

US10 2YR M 10 29 25

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-point for a second month in a row amid pressure from within and from without. The problem is that both unemployment and inflation are rising, and our computer has forecast STAGFLATION through 2028. Interestingly, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year should narrow. This still indicates capital flight, mainly from Europe. As I have said before, the capital fled Europe for WWI, and since it was here, the Automobile boom into 1929 resulted in capital concentration in the US economy. That is why 1929 was the biggest rally, but call money rates only reached 20% – the lowest of all the major panics since 1882, all because of capital concentration. This is the phase we are entering, which accounts for the shift in the spread as well.

CALLMONY MA

Oct 29 2025

Bill Gates: Climate Change Crisis Averted


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gates Health Monopoly

Bill Gates is calling for a “strategic pivot” on climate change in a 17-page manifesto in which he declares that scientific innovations have averted the crisis. The doomsday prophecies of a climate apocalypse by 2030 have clearly not come to fruition. “Climate change is a serious problem, but it will not be the end of civilization,” he admitted. Instead, the globalist elites, such as Gates, will pivot to disease as their new focus for centralized control.

The COP30 summit in Brazil will be the platform to unveil the next plan of action. “If you think climate is not important, you won’t agree with the memo. If you think climate is the only cause and apocalyptic, you won’t agree with the memo,” Gates said during a roundtable discussion with reporters ahead of the release. “It’s kind of this pragmatic view of somebody who’s, you know, trying to maximize the money and the innovation that goes to help in these poor countries.”

Climate change is still considered problematic but the current control provided by the narrative will suffice. Gates is urging “the climate community” to drive the green premium to zero and begin rigorously measuring climate impact. “Representatives from each of the five sectors should report on progress toward affordable and practical zero-carbon innovations, using the Green Premium as their yardstick,” he added. He highlights his $22 billion vaccination program in third-world nations, believing there is an ROI in terms of impact in addition to his personal net worth.

Gates Vaccinate the World

“I know that some climate advocates will disagree with me, call me a hypocrite because of my own carbon footprint (which I fully offset with legitimate carbon credits), or see this as a sneaky way of arguing that we shouldn’t take climate change seriously,” Gates noted, as he openly has not followed his own guidelines for reducing his carbon footprint. “I’ll let the temperature go up 0.1 degree to get rid of malaria. People don’t understand the suffering that exists today.”

Bill_Gates mosquito

He is asking world leaders to turn the climate summit into a summit for poverty and disease. Why? “Even proven efforts like providing lifesaving vaccines for all the world’s children are not being fully funded. Gavi (the vaccine-buying fund) will have 25 percent less money for the next five years compared to the past five years,” he admitted. He wants funding redirected into his disease and vaccination campaigns.

Agriculture and the green agenda go hand in hand. Controlling the food supply is a method to reduce emissions and adhere to reducing the Green Premium. Hence, Gates purchased an astounding amount of land throughout the nation. He has heavily invested in synthetic food products and meat alternatives. A piece of fruit at the grocery story may be compromised under Gates’ synthetic farming measures that remove the nutritional value of whole foods. Couple this with his campaign to vaccinate the world against every known and unknown illness. Companies are reducing investments in ESG initiatives and the public at large no longer fears climate change. The elites are pivoting toward a new plan to centralize control under the premise of always prevalent disease and poverty.

Oct 29 2025

Grokpedia


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Elon Musk singlehandedly resurrected social media after purchasing Twitter (X) and providing all with a platform for free speech. Musk is using his influence to create an alternative to Wikipedia dubbed Grokpedia that he deemed as “a necessary step toward the xAI goal of understanding the Universe.”

Wikipedia has become one of the most viewed websites in the world, but can it be trusted as a reliable source? Co-founder Larry Sanger is now warning the public not to trust the website he helped to create. “You can trust it to give an establishment view,” Sanger admitted as he explained that the website’s original design has been destroyed.

Wikipedia was initially created as an open online resource that was committed to neutrality. Between 2004-2009, Sanger said Wikipedia was a pioneer in delivering news from a non-biased perspective but that quickly changed. Users had the ability to edit various pages and debate the information from both sides of the platform, but now it is nearly impossible for the average person to participate. “If you make any edit at all you will be sternly warned or kicked out,” Sanger said, noting this often happens on articles that are “unimportant.”

Wikipedia is often the first search result on any given search engine. Ever since the ECM turned in 2015.75, Wikipedia has been usurped as a political propaganda machine by the Deep State. Wikipedia circumvents the law because nobody really owns Wikipedia. They claim that all editors are anonymous, so you have to go to court to try to find out who is posting. Even their moderators, whom they call “SysOps,” are anonymous, which breeds secrecy and encourages fraud. They know they can do anything and cannot be sued, for you do not even know who they are — the ultimate propaganda machine (black box).

All of the intelligence agencies are participating. The only thing Wikipedia tracks is your IP, and that can be faked. After these anonymous people make 500 edits without proving that they are even qualified on the subject, they become an “Extended Confirmed User”  and can become an “administrator,” aka SysOps. Then this anonymous person can undo changes, block users, delete pages, and even edit pages that are supposed to be fully protected.’

The Deep State is attempting to control the narrative by controlling information accessible on the internet. In recent months, Wikipedia editors repeatedly attempted to remove the story on the murder of Iryna Zarutska, a 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee. “Nothing is remarkable about this,” the editors at Wikipedia claim. Wikipedia was eager to cover the death of George Floyd and has enshrined his memory with a page that recognizes the global outrage that followed his death. The mainstream media has a particular agenda and selectively chooses what narratives it wants the masses to believe.

Musk’s alternative website could reform the internet and circumvent the digital information blackout.