Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Oct 29 2025

The Stupidity of Linear Analysis & Fraud of Climate Change


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

You are all Wrong

QUESTION: You are known as a climate denier. Why is everyone else wrong but you are right?

GP

Linear vs Cyclical Analaysis

ANSWER: It is basic common sense that is lacking. In all fields of analysis, we face a major crisis: the stupidity of linear analysis, when in fact NOTHING is linear in this universe. If they connect you to measure brain activity and it is a straight flat line, sorry, you are brain dead, and they will pull the plug. The sun fluctuates between solar maximum and minimum, beating as your heart does. Economists reject the idea of a definitive business cycle, so they have a job and advise governments on how to manipulate society. If there is a regular business cycle, then you cannot manipulate it, and they are out of a job. This is like NATO only exists if there is war. They will never advocate peace with Russia, for then you don’t need them, and they are out of a job.

Rise Fall or Empires Climate

These Climate Change morons deliberately avoid serious analysis because it would make them appear biased idiots. They do not want to explain previous ice ages or warming periods. Empires rose during global warming and fell into dust during global cooling, all before fossil fuels were even discovered.

NYC Max Avg Temp 1869 2020

We have the data, and we correlate it with the rise and fall of civilizations to find the ANSWER—not speculation or linear analysis, because these people do not understand cycles in anything. Here is the temperature data from BYC back to 1869. There is ZERO evidence that the world has grown significantly warmer. There are cycles to EVERYTHING without exception. The real cycle is about 150 years, and the subsequent global warming phase should occur from 2065 to 2085. The last one began in 1922 with Arctic melting, and over the next 10 years, you had the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.

Between roughly 1920 and 1940, the Arctic, particularly the North Atlantic sector (Greenland, Svalbard, and the Barents Sea), experienced pronounced warming. This is well-documented in ship logs, scientific papers, and newspaper articles from the time.

1922 Lanark 11 29 1922

Numerous articles appeared in 1922, like the famous Associated Press report titled “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.” This article reported that Norwegian waters were experiencing unusually warm temperatures, glaciers were retreating, and sea ice was significantly reduced.

The point is that in finance, any investor knows that just because the Dow Jones rallies 1,000 points, this money DOES NOT mean it will continue to do that for the next 100 years, month after month. This stupidity of linear analysis, where just because it was warmer this year than last, DOES NOT justify forecasting that this trend will continue indefinitely.

Vid

I am sorry, all of these people claiming climate change are absolute idiots, for NOTHING in this universe performs in a linear, straight progression. I really do not care. Let them disagree with me. They are NOT going to convert me to some fool who actually believes I can debate them and get them to see the error in their analysis. Only a fool thinks he can convince a fool that he is wrong.

Jim Fisk Panic 1869
1869 Sept 25 NYT Front Page 1024x380

I learned about cyclical analysis in high school history class. The teacher showed this 1937 black-and-white film, The Toast of New York, about the Panic of 1869 and Jim Fisk’s cornering of the gold market. Since I worked part-time in a coin/bullion store in the 1960s, I knew that gold was $35 and ounce. In the film, he says gold hit $162.50 in 1869. That bothered me. I went to the library and then discovered that it was indeed the price in the New York Times. Suddenly, the linear analysis I was being taught was all wrong. There was no such steady linear progression. It was cyclical.

Lincoln lie fool the people
Julius Caesar People Believe

Lincoln said, “You can’t fool all the people all the time.” Climate Change is a religion to these people. Julius Caesar noted over 2,000 years ago that people.
“willingly believe what they wish.”

I am NOT here to convince you of anything. I don’t charge you to read this, and I do not sell advertising. I just offer the facts. If you do not have the independent intelligence to make up your own mind but prefer to believe whatever the self-proclaimed authorities tell you, there is no fact or study I could EVER show you to change your mind.

Goodluck with that

Categories:Climate

Oct 29 2025

Why Republics Will Collapse


Posted originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

house_of_cards_fall_anim_300_clr_14631

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have said many times that we are in a phase in which this time it will be the fall of republics, whereas the last time it was monarchy. Could you comment on this? It seems that the Democrats in this shutdown want billions for their illegal aliens while they hurt American citizens. Is this the type of polarization who have been warned about, which brings the house of cards crashing down?

PT

ANSWER: Historically, the intense division between fundamental political factions is not just a symptom of a republic in trouble, but the very disease that always kills it. The fall occurs when the conflict shifts from “how should we govern?” to “who are we as a people?” and is fought with tools outside the established republican framework.

Intense polarization is the warning sign. Political disagreement shifts from policy-based to identity-based. It’s no longer “I disagree with your plan for the economy” but “You and your kind are a threat to the nation itself.” The political opponent becomes an enemy. We are witnessing polarization within republics in the US, Canada, and Europe, to name just a few.

The Democrats see Trump as the “enemy” and constantly claim this is a crisis in democracy because it is not their way alone. We have crossed the Rubicon, and there is now no going back. This shutdown is the confirmation of the decline and fall of the United States, as well as all the rest. I warned at the last WEC in 2024 that the Democratic Party would split, and it is in its collapsing phase.

Cato the Younger Bust

The Optimates faction of Senators who crowned themselves with the title boni  (“the good men”), like a judge who demands to be “honorable” without earning that title, was led by Cato, who was a ruthless power-monger. They were deeply corrupt in their abuse of political norms. They used procedural obstructions, filibusters, and religious technicalities (omens) to block legislation and appointments they disliked, making the normal political process unworkable for anyone outside their clique.

1 Caesar Rubicon Coinage

When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC, the people cheered, and the cities opened their gates. He did NOT fight his way to Rome. The Senate fled because they had no popular support, any more than our Congress does today. History repeats because human nature never changes.

Oct 28 2025

Subprime Auto Lenders Folding


Posted  originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

reposessioncarautos

PrimaLend Capital Partners filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, beckoning the start of America’s personal loan crisis. The subprime auto lender catered to those “buy-here-pay-here” dealerships that cater to those with bad credit. The people cannot pay their loans and the subprime lenders are folding. Delinquencies are rising, repossessions are surging, and the auto-loan market is signaling stresses in the broader economy.

The same issue happened in September with Tricolor Holdings when it filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation. Primalend Capital Partners’ assets and liabilities are estimated to be between $100 million and $500 million, as this was no small lender. The auto loan market in the US has seen balances double over the past 12 years. Subprime borrowers have faced the steepest repercussions, with 6.6% of borrowers currently 60 days past due on auto loans, or the highest rate of delinquency on record.

Auto lenders have $1.66 trillion in outstanding loans across the nation, 5% of which are at least 90 days late, up 12.6% YoY. Vehicle costs have soared in recent years, with the average price for a new vehicle coming in at $50,000. Twenty percent of new car owners are paying over $1,000 monthly for their autos.

New car loans have hit 9%, but used cars have hit nearly 14% and buyers seeking buy-here-pay-here loans are willing to take on an even higher fee. Expenses on car repairs alone have soared 33% since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.

Vehicle repossessions are at their highest level since 2009 during the Great Recession. The trend naturally correlates to historic highs in consumer debt, which spreads into every facet of the economy. The big banks like Barclays and JPMorgan are also taking on hundreds of millions in losses related to these failures and credit stress is on the rise. Cars are essential for employment in the majority of the nation and subprime borrowers are willing to take on more debt, even when they do not have the funds, to access transportation. This is a massive red flag, especially given the rising rate of unemployment. Consumers have been stretched too thin and it will cause a ripple effect throughout the economy.

Oct 28 2025

Japan to Remove Defense Export Ban


Posted  originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

SanaeTakaichiJAPAN

Japan has strictly regulated, if not banned, the majority of defense exports for over three decades. Japan recently outbid Germany for a lucrative contract to export submarines to Australia, marking the first major defense contract in years. Japan also assisted the US in creating Patriot missiles that have been in high demand since the start of the war in Ukraine. Under new leadership, Japan plans to remove bans on defense exports.

The Liberal Democratic Party was aligned with the Buddhist Party Komeito and essentially took a pacifist stance. Critics accused Komeito of falling under Beijing’s influence and prioritizing amity to prevent the nation from increasing its adherence to and loyalty to NATO and the West.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, have taken a nationalist stance and plan to abolish any defense export restrictions. The “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology” currently provides guidelines for Japan’s defense trade.

The Three Principles:

Prohibition Principle: Transfers are prohibited in specific cases—such as when they would violate Japan’s treaty obligations, U.N. Security Council resolutions, or are destined for countries involved in international conflicts or subject to UN measures for peace and security.​

Permissible Cases Principle: Transfers may be permitted only if they promote international peace, cooperation, or Japan’s own security, and must undergo rigorous, transparent examination. This process aims to support humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, peacekeeping, counter-terrorism, anti-piracy operations, and capacity building.​

Control Principle: Every transfer requires strict controls against the equipment being repurposed for unauthorized uses or being transferred to third countries. Recipient governments must obtain Japan’s prior consent for any change in use or third-party transfers.​

Japan must go through third parties to transfer or export weapons. Politicians must craft creative rhetoric to pretend that all defense trade adheres to the Three Principles. New PM Takaichi would like Japan to operate as a “normal” country that does not need to restrict defense to peacemaking obligations. China, Russia, and North Korea are now openly viewed as a threat.

Japan will not become a mega defense manufacturer overnight, but the move is quite a historic break from decades of postwar pacifism. The new administration plans to increase spending on military and defense to 2% of GDP by March 2026 as it prepares to protect itself beyond the shield of the US.

Oct 28 2025

One in 10 Americans on SNAP


Posted Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  
WelfareState

There are 42 million Americans at risk of losing access to SNAP food stamp benefits due to the prolonged government shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) does not have the ability to continue funding the program and funds will run dry on November 1. It is more alarming that one in ten Americans currently receives some form of government aid.

The USDA cannot pull funds from other sources such as school meals or formula for infants, despite the Democrats’ insistence that it taps into the $5 billion fund to cover the gap. “The contingency fund is a source of funds for contingencies, such as the Disaster SNAP program, which provides food purchasing benefits for individuals in disaster areas, including natural disasters like hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods, that can come on quickly and without notice,” the USDA pointed out. There is no national emergency; there is a political clash that has halted all funding.

“Senate Democrats have now voted 12 times to not fund the food stamp program, also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP),” the memo continued. “Bottom line, the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 1. We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats. They can continue to hold out for healthcare for illegal aliens and gender mutilation procedures or reopen the government so mothers, babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive critical nutrition assistance,” the department said.

SNAP

The federal government spends $9 billion per month to fund SNAP food assistance programs. Again, one out of every ten Americans is receiving aid from this program, up 12.3% on an annual basis. SNAP is the largest social support program in the United States. The average recipient receives around $190, but the payout largely depends on household size, geographic location, and certain deductions. The government believes that the average participant should spend 30% of their income on food, and benefits are typically calculated by subtracting 30% of net income from the federal maximum for household size.

For fiscal year 2025, a household of one qualifies with a net monthly income up to $1,255 and a gross monthly income up to $1,632, while a household of two qualifies with a net monthly income up to $1,704 and a gross income up to $2,215. Around 73% of households receiving benefits live at 100% below the poverty line. Two-thirds of households receiving benefits include children living with a single parent. Only 28% of households have earned income, while 61% receive additional unearned aid from the government.

There is a welfare crisis in this nation. There are those who need assistance due to age, disability, or a temporary supplement due to loss income or personal crisis. However, most of the people living on government welfare are not working full-time jobs. Kids have become currency for the welfare state as people receive more for reproducing. Two-thirds of SNAP recipients have children in the household. Those with children under 14 years of age do not need to work to receive benefits. Everyone else can either work part-time for 20 hours per week, volunteer, or continue education to receive government aid.

The national debt continues to reach record highs while the welfare state increases. Americans have the option to simply not work and live off of other taxpayers. There are those who need the assistance as they cannot work or paid into the system and need temporary reprieve. Yet, 1 in 10 Americans living off Uncle Sam is wholly unsustainable and indicative of a failed society.

Oct 28 2025

Mamdani to Reform NYC – Wall Street Moves to Miami


Posted Oct 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Andrew Cuomo’s campaign just posted — and quickly deleted — this AI-generated ad depicting “criminals for Zohran Mamdani.”

1975 NYC Ford_to_City_Drop_Dead

It is 50 years since NYC had its last bankruptcy crisis in October 1975. President Gerald Ford initially opposed a federal bailout, leading to the famous October 30, 1975, New York Daily News headline: “FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD.” We will run the models using the Mamdani method for a possible victory. It looks like such a victory will deliver New York City its just dues as 2026 appears to be a fiscal crisis, and it will be 51.6 years from the 1975 Crisis.

Wall Street has been moving to Miami – the equivalent of NYC with sun, minus all the extreme Marxism that infects NYC.

Categories:Politics

Oct 27 2025

The Core of the Peace Proposal


Posted Oct 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Russia_Peace_Deal Cover

The Road to Peace is undoubtedly attainable.

Russia_Peace_Deal Index

I urge everyone to read my Peace Proposal that details the intricacies of restoring global order. The importance of restoring peace is paramount. Without peace, we will be forced to endure World War III—the destruction and loss of life is unfathomable. Share this document with whoever is willing to listen.

The core of the peace plan is as follows. Yet, it is essential to read the full proposal to understand why these solutions could restore peace and change the course of history.

A plausible scenario / Restoration Deal Package

Putting the above together, a possible realistic “Restoration Deal” (from Russia’s perspective) might look like this:

  • Russia agrees to end the Ukrainian War in return for the honoring of the Minsk Agreement, a freeze of conflict lines, and allow the Donbas to vote on their basic human right to decide their own fate
  • In return, the U.S. (and EU) lift key sanctions on energy, rare earth exports, and financial transactions in stages
  • Russia commits to independent oversight (by international monitors) of resource exports, pricing, and revenue accounting

What the U.S. might realistically demand

(and what Russia would have to give)

From the U.S. (and allies) side, the demands would likely include:

  • Full transparency, auditing, and verification (to ensure that Russia does not exploit the relief to fund further military aggression)
  • Oversight on technology transfers and security constraints
  • Guarantees that lifted sanctions are reversible if Russia reneges
  • Some quid pro quo on Ukraine: withdrawal, territorial concessions, ceasefire, no reparations payments for Ukraine
  • Human rights, protection of minority groups, recognition of international law norms, and any Ukrainians located in the Donbas should be compensated to vacate the region

Russia would effectively have to offer more than just trade goods—it would have to offer political concessions, oversight, and legal guarantees that would enable it to join the world economy as an equal partner

Would such a deal restore Russia’s economy?

These proposals will help stabilize and revive parts of the Russian economy, but it will take time to establish a full “restoration” since that is not possible in the short-term. Some likely outcomes:

  • Increased export revenues from resource and rare-earth deals
  • Inflow of foreign investment (if investor confidence returns)
  • Technology and capacity rebuild via joint ventures
  • Partial reintegration into global financial systems (banking, capital markets)
  • Pressure/drive for domestic reforms (if tied to the deal)

If Trump stops listening to these losers who have never won a single war to date yet have created the largest perpetual rolling debt for their personal hatreds. Perhaps we stand a chance for peace. In these meetings with Zelensky, Trump must abandon Europe and the Neocons and be the real peacemaker. Zelensky must be stripped of his arrogant, greedy power.

My ultimatum would be simple

(1)You will honor the Minsk Agreement and allow the people of the Donbas to vote on their human right to remain as part of Ukraine, which hates their very existence and has engaged in ethnic cleansing.

(2) If Zelensky refuses, I will impose sanctions on Ukraine, and NO American company will be allowed to invest in Ukraine to cut off his trillion-dollar rebuild dream to become the richest billionaire of Ukraine.

(3) If NATO or the EU refuses to honor the very agreement that they signed, the US will withdraw from NATO.

(4) We cut a deal with Russia, allowing American companies to enter joint ventures in Russia to exploit the rare earths and resources with a joint guarantee that their investments will be safe.

(5) All sanctions of Russia are to be lifted, including the Magnitsky Act, with the sole exception of sanctions that were against individual spies.

(6) Agree to do a joint venture in the Arctic and Antarctica for natural resources and accept Putin’s proposal for a tunnel to Alaska.

Bottom line

(1) Drop all Sanctions

(2) Allow Joint Venture in Russia Jointly Guaranteed

(3) Agree to establish free trade zones

(4) Allow the Tunnel from Russia to Alaska

(5) EU must honor the Minsk Agreement or the USA exits NATO

(6) Ukraine must allow elections and must honor the Minsk Agreement or executive order prohibits all investment in Ukraine by any American company directly or indirectly

(7) If the Donbas votes to separate as in Czechoslovakia and in the Balkans, then they are to recognized by the United Nations or US withdraws all support for the United Nations.

Economic decline produces tensions, and this is what we are witnessing on a global scale, primarily due in part to the crisis in sovereign debts that nations are increasingly finding more difficult to service. The risk of a sanction producing war is far greater during an economic contraction, especially when Russia looks at this as a confrontation with NATO rather than Ukraine.

Russia_Peace_Deal Index

The Peace Proposal is available for free in audio or PDF format. Spread the word that World War III is not inevitable.

Oct 27 2025

Largest Corporate Layoffs of 2025


Posted originally on Oct 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Resume.Jobs_.Unemployment

Companies are downsizing as the future looks bleak. Third-nation outsourcing is prevalent, and the domestic workforce is tightening. Several corporations shrank their workforce significantly this year in a trend that will continue as the economy turns down.

GEICO insurance company, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, reduced its workforce by 30,000 positions. Insurance may have seemed like a stable industry, but insurers are facing high competition and lower margins. The company believes it can save $20 billion annually by scaling its workforce and moving some of its operations to Florida. Many of these positions related to network management, data, security operations, and customer service are now automated.

Man v Computer AI

Intel Corporation shed 24,000 positions this year but plans to continue layoffs through the rest of Q4. Intel believes it only needs to retain 75,000 “core employees” from the initial 99,500 it had at the beginning of the year. Semiconductor manufacturing is of the utmost importance, and resources must be redirected toward manufacturing. A downsizing of this size signals a complete structural change in the company.

At the beginning of the tariff debacle, UPS announced it was cutting 20,000 jobs. The market is extremely competitive, and margins have slimmed due to tariffs and supply chain issues. UPS believes it is “future-proofing” its company by relying more on automation than human workers. Warehouses and distribution centers have been the first line of attack for AI replacement.

AutoManufacturing

Nissan was forced to close seven manufacturing plants due to weak sales. The company initially planned to slim its workforce by 11,000 but cuts nearly doubled to 20,000. The auto industry has been weakened on a global basis. Chevron also plans to cut its workforce by up to 20% by the end of 2026. Ford eliminated bonuses for 3,300 managers and eliminated 1,000 manufacturing jobs. Stellantis eliminated 900 workers and Tesla laid off 10% of its global workforce amid weakened EV demand and stiff competition from China.

Companies are seeking to increase their slim margins by streamlining operations and are quick to automate positions when possible. As noted last week, Amazon, the second-largest employer in the USA, believes it can cut its workforce by 600,000 within the next few years. Lowering the cost of borrowing will not entice companies to take on more debt. Conditions have changed and companies plan to cut costs rather than profits. It is clear which industries are facing challenging times ahead as the world economy turns down.

Oct 27 2025

Japan’s Borders to Remain CLOSED


Posted originally on Oct 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

SanaeTakaichiJAPAN

Japan’s Prime Minister-in-waiting Sanae Takaichi has been dubbed Japan’s Donald Trump for her nationalist views. Japan does not have a massive refugee problem. The small nation has always sought to preserve its cultural identity throughout history, and as such, has maintained a high-trust society. Takaichi warned that Japan will not bend to globalist forces, pointing the finger at Europe and vowing to maintain Japan’s individuality.

“Unchecked immigration has led to serious social problems in parts of Europe. Japan must not repeat those mistakes,” Japan’s first female prime minister warned.

Takaichi pointed to Europe’s “open border” failure that led to unrest and a decaying society. Japan will continue to remain “socially stable and culturally intact.” The media is portraying her as anti-immigration, but there is a vast difference between immigration and illegal migration. “We will support foreign workers in sectors that truly need them, but only those who have the skills, discipline, and respect for our way of life,” she said in a separate interview.

Societies have historically crumbled through invading forces. Europe is the unfortunate case study for what happens when leaders abandon all national policies from migration to monetary concerns.

“Japan is a country with a beautiful culture and social harmony that must be protected. We welcome foreigners who respect our laws and customs, but will respond firmly to those who do not,” she added. Japan does not need to implement mass deportation programs because it never adopted open border policies. Globalist nations have been urging Japan to drop security and permit more unchecked “refugees” into its lands. Japan is standing tall amid Takaichi’s rule and prioritizing citizens over globalist causes.

Oct 27 2025

Armstrong of USA Watchdog.COM


Posted originally on Oct 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

2025_10_26_14_39_53_Armstrong_Called_In_to_Prevent_WWIII_Martin_Armstrong_Greg_Hunter_s_USAWatch