Posted originally on Nov 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Chinese Trump?!” Wait ‘Till You Hear Him
 “Chinese Trump?!” Wait ‘Till You Hear Him |
Category Blogger Martin Armstrong
US and Syria Strengthen Ties
Posted originally on Nov 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
(The above photo depicts President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House in 2025; below is a picture of terrorist al-Sharaa in 2016)
US President Donald Trump hosted Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House this week. The year 2025 has certainly been an interesting one. In May, the United States announced it would lift sanctions on Syria after Trump’s historic meeting with Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Sunni jihadist and known terrorist. Now, Al Qaeda is shaking hands with the president of the United States in the Oval Office as the US aims to profit from its investments in Syria.
Trump agreed to suspend sanctions on Syria for 180 days and offered Syria a place in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. Syria is committed to continuing to fight ISIS, and more importantly, reducing Russian and Iranian influence in the nation. Syria said it will destroy all remaining drug stockpiles and chemical weapons from the Assad regime. Al-Sharaa is open to allowing the US to open an air base near Damascus. Relations have warmed to the point where the US may remove Syria from its black listing as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.
Now, the current Syrian president had a $10 million bounty on him prior to his sudden meeting with the POTUS in May. America captured Ahmed al-Sharaa while he was fighting for Al Qaeda in Iraq for over half a decade. He was a powerful high-level terrorist in the organization who secured vast power and influence. Then the US simply released him, or so we are told. The truth of the matter is that he was almost certainly compromised and turned into a CIA asset during this time period.
Syria has an estimated 2.5 billion in proven oil reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Pre-war, Syria was producing 385,000 barrels of oil daily, but that slowed drastically to 24,000 to 34,000 per day from 2019 to 2025. At present, Syria has been generating 110,000 barrels per day, with 100,000 barrels from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and only 10,000 from the new administration. This is far from a recovery since the nation needs about 150,000 bpd to meet demand domestically.
Russia intervened in Syria back in 2015 at the guidance of Assad. Russia’s 49-year relationship with the Assad government has come to an end, and along with it, its stronghold in Syria. Syrians have been critical of Russian forces in the region and blame them for numerous civilian casualties, demanding reparations. Syria is not about humanitarian concerns. It’s about energy routes and Russian influence in the region. Washington had been trying to remove Assad for years because he refused to allow the Qatari gas pipeline that would have undermined Russia’s dominance in supplying gas to Europe. This is what the neocons never tell you. They want war—plain and simple—because it lines their pockets and advances their ideological dream of reshaping the world in their image.
Obama and the CIA funded opposing radical groups to topple the government, but it backfired and gave rise to ISIS. We now have the declassified documents from 2012 that show the US intelligence community knew this would happen and did it anyway. Ahmed al-Sharaa is exactly who the West needed to install an interim puppet government and force their way into Syria.
The United States now owns Syria through its ties to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. More importantly, the interim government has been freshly established with a new Constitution promising diversity and a change from Sharia law to appease the West, although the president is a known jihadist terrorist who was captured by American troops and released in order to overthrow Syria’s last regime. All of this was planned out long ago.
Another Shutdown Looming
Posted originally on Nov 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Democrats may have walked away from this shutdown with their tail between their legs, but the fight is not over. The paper-thin deal will fund the government until January 30, 2026. Congress must agree on long-term funding before the end of January to prevent another shutdown.
Republicans will not waver on Obamacare subsidies. The Democrats must save face by pushing forth pieces of their initial proposal, namely Obamacare, but it seems unlikely that a deal would be made in such little time. Congress effectively passed the measure to take the holidays off.
The public can believe that the government is up and running from Thanksgiving through Christmas and New Year’s. Federal workers can have a temporary sense of job security, and holiday travel can continue largely uninterrupted. Most importantly, it will prevent the public from losing trust in the US government. The federal government should not risk yet another debt downgrade due to the misbehavior of politicians.
Congress should NOT receive payment during a shutdown. Their inability to reach a bipartisan agreement added tens of billions to the national debt.
Two sides of the aisle cannot agree on anything. I explained at the 2024 World Economic Conference that the Democratic Party was on the brink of extinction. Our computer has forecast that the Democratic Party will split and collapse just as the Federalists did for pretty much the same reason – dictatorial power from a centralized government. Initially, there were the Federalists v the Democratic-Republican Party. After the Federalists were defeated, the Party of Jefferson eventually split in two, becoming the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats became the South and supported Slavery. The Republicans were once known as the Party of Lincoln. They switched roles somehow when the Republicans opposed the rising Marxist policies of the late 1800s.
The Democrats reached their peak with our model in 2021, following that election, and we have been in a bearish decline for five years, continuing into 2026. They do not appear viable by the time we reach 2030. We may see a split for any election in 2028, fragmenting the political process. The United States itself may become a completely divided nation by 2036 if not earlier.
China Limits America’s Ability to Purchase Rare Earth Minerals
Posted originally on Nov 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Over 90% of rare earth global production occurs in China. The materials are needed for absolutely everything, namely the production of military equipment, which is why China has imposed new restrictions to prevent the United States from military expansion.
China is preparing to implement a “validated end-user” (VEU) system to forbid any corporation with ties to the US military from purchasing rare earths. The VEU system will facilitate trade to civilian corporations, as outlined during Chinese President Xi Jinping recent meeting with US President Donald Trump. The two sides may have agreed to ease restrictions on rare earth trade, but the silent Cold War between the two continues.
The US and its allies have been prohibiting China from purchasing semiconductor chips and intellectual property that could be utilized in military expansion. Both sides have implemented
end-user \verification and approval systems. In fact, the US first implemented an end-user verification system specifically to weed out Chinese companies back in 2007.
Companies must first register to purchase any item that could be used by the Chinese or US military. Potential buyers must now be carefully vetted to ensure they are in compliance with national security standards. If approved, in the case of China, firms will receive a validated end-user certificate to confirm that they are authorized to purchase materials that will be used for civilian purposes. These certifications must be periodically renewed, and the government will be carefully monitoring companies granted approval. Exporters must verify that shipments will only be sent to verified end users. There will be ongoing monitoring and audits, shipment tracking systems, and careful record reporting.
The two nations are ultimately attempting to decrease their trade alliance. The US is completely banking on Japan to begin extracting rare earths to meet demand. Taiwan is the hot spot for all semiconductor chips, with the US and China both claiming rights to the island in various ways.
Schumer Shutdown Ends in Ruin for Democrats
Posted originally on Nov 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The longest government shutdown in US history is officially over. Seven Democrats and one Independent broke party lines to reopen the government. There will be no extended subsidies for Obamacare. Chuck Schumer encouraged his party to protest against the American people in favor of absurd policies that would not benefit the majority. Was it worth it?
Estimates suggest that the shutdown added between $15 billion and $30 billion to the US national debt per week. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that a four-week shutdown would cause US GDP to drop by 1% for Q4 2025.
Over 670,000 federal employees were furloughed, while another 730,000 were forced to work without pay. The average federal worker lost around $10,000 during this shutdown. Congress did not go a day without pay despite their refusal to work. The shutdown expanded to 4.5 million when accounting for federal civilians and military members. Approximately 1.3 million active-duty troops experienced financial stress. Over 750,000 National Guard members were forced to continue working without pay.
American military families were sent to food banks for assistance after the politicians they fought for refused to fight for them. An anonymous donor sent the Pentagon $130 million to assist the military during the shutdown. Generous, patriotic, but also dystopian. The Pentagon could not even immediately receive the gift without going through the appropriate Ethics Official regulations, since the gift was in excess of $10,000. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration reallocated $8 billion from defense research to pay military personnel.
Over 40 million people lost SNAP food benefits. Airports came to a near standstill, impacting numerous sectors. The nation’s division became a global spectacle. Yet, at no point during the chaos did the Democrats agree to back down on their stipulations. Their temporary resolution still demanded an extension for Obamacare subsidies, among other outlandish items, and in the end the negotiations completely backfired—they walked away with nothing.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voted against the final resolution on Monday night, as did all but seven Democrats. Defeated and embarrassed, the Democrats have largely turned on Schumer and are calling for his resignation.
“I’m not going to put a blade in my leader,” said Sen. John Fetterman who has been openly critical of the shutdown and Democratic Party in general. Fetterman said it would be hard for Schumer to win back the “indivisible” party members, or leftist extremists. “This has happened over and over. You cannot defend democracy effectively if you are not united as an opposition party, and we are repeatedly showing that we are not united,” Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut said.
The Democrats are too divided to continue existing as a united party—confirmed by the longest shutdown in US history.
The 50-Year Mortgage – YOU WILL OWN NOTHING
Posted originally on Nov 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Between 15-year car loans and 50-year mortgages, the globalist world order of YOU WILL OWN NOTHING is closer to reality than the majority realizes.
The premise of a 50-year loan is absolutely absurd. The average age for a first-time home buyer in the US is now 40. People will live in indefinite debt, settling for lower monthly payments rather than outright ownership. Total interest paid over the duration of the loan’s life would multiply, benefitting the lenders, but leaving nothing of actual worth for the “owner.” The majority does not realize the implications of living in perpetual debt.
Then there are states that implement inheritance taxes, so in essence, your assets will simply be passed on to the government, as the next of kin will merely be the next in line for debt. Property taxes continually rise each year. Americans never own their home outright, even if paying in cash, due to taxes.
Lenders would require a higher interest rate for longer-term loans that may even offset the lower monthly rate entirely. One could finance a $400,000 home for 6% with a 30-year fixed mortgage. The monthly payment with principal and interest would be $2,398.20. Total interest paid over the duration of the 30-year loan would be $463,352. If someone were to apply for a 50-year loan on a $400,000 house at a 7% rate, the monthly payment would be $2,406.75, and the total interest paid over the duration of the loan would amount to $1,044,050.
A 15-year car loan carries the same burdens of increased interest and perpetual debt. New cars lose up to 20% of their value as soon as you drive them off the lot. New cars are built cheaply and rarely last 15 years. The “modern” technology becomes outdated rapidly, and people usually sell when the burden of costly repairs outweighs the value of the car.
US President Donald Trump is likely hoping that these measures can repair confidence in the short term. The masses who cannot afford home or auto ownership will turn to perpetual debt and acquire the items. The problem will be prolonged enough for the current administration to come and go. I do not believe that Trump is selling into the WEF traditional idea of “you will own nothing,” but that will be the precise outcome of half-century mortgages.
Simply put: borrowers will not benefit from a 50-year mortgage that guarantees YOU WILL OWN NOTHING.
Fed Quietly Injects $125 Billion in Repo Market
Posted originally on Nov 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Federal Reserve quietly pumped $125 billion into the repo market during the last week of October. Red flags have been raised that the banks are in desperate need of liquidity, but there is a deeper issue at play—the entire system is under stress.
In a special report for institutional clients, I detailed the progression of the Liquidity Crisis we had forecast would erupt at our Rome World Economic Conference, come September 2019. The early warning signs were right there in our face if you just looked. The next stage emerged into the Repo Crisis, and the third stage will unfold as the Mother of all Financial Crises.
The central bank stepped into the repo market in 2019 and has not injected an amount this large since the 2020 pandemic. This move comes as bank reserves drop to a four-year low of $2.8 trillion and liquidity is certainly a valid concern. More importantly, the Fed wants banks to trade US debt for cash and force the private sector to absorb the debt. The Fed does not want to publicly provide a bail out so they inject money into the standing repo facility and lend against Treasuries.
The public must have confidence in the banks, and the banks must have confidence that the Federal Reserve will always catch them before they fall. We’ve seen several smaller banks go under in 2025, yet they were small enough not to raise concerns. The Fed fears panic more than it fears inflation. Powell knows that the central bank lost the ability to control inflation, but for now, it can control panic.
The cycle cannot be prevented. The systemic issues are too far gone for repair. As we move closer to 2032, the banks will impose heavy regulations and capital restrictions. Eventually, the banks will lose trust in the Fed, and the people will lose confidence in the banks.
Belgium Seeking Young Troops
Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Belgium abolished mandatory military service in 1995, operating with an all-volunteer military force. The defense department has been keenly interested in recruiting young men to join since it became apparent that Belgium would become involved in the Russia-Ukraine-NATO war. Defense Minister Theo Francken issued a message on X: “All 17-year-olds in the country are encouraged to learn about the Ministry of Defence and, in particular, to volunteer for military service. Let’s get started!”
Clearly, there is a reason for concern. The military recently implemented a voluntary program aimed at young men aged 18 to 25, offering a monthly salary of 2000 euros for enrollment. The defense department is hoping to recruit 500 new soldiers in the short term, but plans for a full-scale military expansion of 7,000 new troops.
The youth cannot find jobs; Belgium has one of the highest rates of youth unemployment among EU members at 16.75%. Employment opportunities are extremely limited on a regional basis as well. The Brussels-Capital area has a youth unemployment rate a bit above 17%, but places like Wallonia exceed 20%, and in Flanders, over 30% of the youth cannot find employment. The average salary in the nation across all sectors was 3,700 EUR, but the average soldier is taking home 57,860 EUR. The youth can find secure stable employment within the military, earning 35,520 EUR annually with no prior experience. Governments historically have a far easier time building their militaries when youth unemployment is high.
Russian drones have infiltrated Belgium’s airspace on several occasions this past year. The neighboring nations have had formal diplomatic ties for over 165 years with strong bilateral trade. Yet, Belgium is beholden to Brussels and NATO. The EU has been pressuring Belgium to break ties with Russia, demanding that it implement sanctions and use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine. Belgium need not pick a side as it is already aligned with two globalist organizations that override national sovereignty.
Texas Changes Constitution to Attract Capital
Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Texas is open for business—permanently—as the state solidifies business-friendly measures in its constitution. Texas is signaling to businesses and institutions that it is safe to relocate, as the state will not be vulnerable to massive political regulatory shifts.
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is poised to open in Dallas next year. Y’all Street has been rapidly booming in popularity as Wall Street refugees flee south. There are already nearly 400,000 financial professionals in the area and institutions like Goldman have plans to create new facilities nearby. To ensure that businesses continue to flee south, Texas has permanently issued a ban on securities transaction taxes. By law, the state may not impose taxes on payroll transactions or financial trades.
Conduct business in Texas, and Texas will not extort your earnings. New modifications to the Constitution prohibit any taxes on capital gains. Texas will not profit from the sale of real estate, capital assets, the sale of investments. Businesses can rest easy in knowing that there will not be a tax on success at the state level. Let us not forget that the Biden Administration wanted to slap a 44.6% tax on capital gains federally. There have been proposals at both the state and federal levels to tax unrealized gains—a sure way to financial suicide.
Again, wealth is not a punishable offense in Texas. The third constitutional amendment bans inheritance and estate taxes. Inheritance Taxes are Marxist and highly destructive economically. Suppose you have a company worth $100 million; your children must pay 40% taxes. They have to fire people and sell assets to cover the tax. Heirs have been forced to sell their family businesses or farms to pay inheritance/death taxes. It is a Marxist assault on property and passing on family wealth. The tax itself disincentives entrepreneurs from creating a legacy. No one aims to work their lives away only to pass on their earnings to the state.
CAPITAL MUST BE ATTRACTED. Capital cannot be strangled or confined. Hunting down capital causes it to flee for safety, a safety that can now be found in Texas.
The Tariff “Dividend”
Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
President Donald Trump has proposed a $2,000 tariff “dividend” to every American. Reminiscent of the stimulus checks provided during COVID-19, the payment comes at a time of low public confidence in government and government policy.
Tariffs generated $151 billion between April and October, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes duty collections will reach half a trillion per year.
This does not simply mean that the US federal government has a few extra billion lying around to disperse to the public. America has over $37 trillion in debt that is expanding by the second. Tariffs are an indirect tax paid by consumers through higher prices, not a penalty absorbed solely by foreign producers. A “dividend” payment to Americans would offset that indirect tax. This is not inflationary in itself, rather, it is merely shifting money from importers and consumers back to individuals. It’s a redistribution, not a monetary expansion.
“The $2,000 divided could come in lots of forms,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing.” Also reminiscent of the COVID stimulus checks, these payments likely would not go to Americans earning over a certain threshold. The US does not need to stimulate spending at this time. Consumer spending remains high amid inflation. Consumer sentiment is low, but that does not correlate with spending; however, it does correlate with confidence.
The nation recently witnessed the celebration of a socialist politician, Zohran Mamdani, who became the mayor of NYC through free offerings. The public has its hand out and is waiting for the government to fix the cost-of-living crisis. The premise is more of a political stimulus rather than a monetary one.
The public always demands government do something, and politicians respond with short-term gimmicks to preserve power. But the underlying problem is systemic. We’re witnessing the end of Keynesian economics. The idea that government can endlessly manage the economy through fiscal manipulation is dying.
