Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Oct 30 2025

Radioactive Tsunamis


Posted originally on Oct 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Humans continue to devise innovative ways to kill one another. Bullets simply will not suffice in modern warfare. Moscow has developed nuclear torpedo missiles that have the ability to drown entire cities through 1,600-foot-high radioactive tsunamis.

Technology of this nature has never been developed or utilized. “For the first time, we managed not only to launch it with a launch engine from a carrier submarine, but also to launch the nuclear power unit on which this device passed a certain amount of time,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said, calling the test a “huge success.”

Named after the Greek god of the sea, Poseidon is far more powerful than the most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile. Secrecy surrounds the details of the Poseidon, but reports believe that it can carry a 2 megaton warhead. For reference, such a weapon is 150 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

Russia attempted to test this technology in 2022 but failed. Moscow began developing this technology in 2018 after the US pulled out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and began expanding its NATO stronghold across the globe.

A nuclear tsunami would not only flood entire coastal cities, but it would create long-lasting, forever contamination, hence being dubbed a “flying Chernobyl.” The radioactive fallout would be unimaginable. Large areas would be uninhabitable for generations and there is absolutely no way to undo the damage. Casualties could reach several million if detonated near a densely populated coastal city. Death would be immediate for most and slow and prolonged for those exposed to the radiation.

A 1,600-foot tsunami would be one of the largest in modern history. In comparison, the 2011 tsunamis triggered by an earthquake in Japan reached 43 feet. The 1958 Lituya Bay megatsunami in Alaska, the highest on record, reached 1,720 feet and was triggered by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake when 30 million cubic meters of rock slid into the Lituya Bay. The tsunami destroyed 1.5 square miles of land and reached elevations above 700 feet. Luckily, it was a relatively isolated area, but the landscape and ecosystem have been permanently altered. Again, that tsunami was merely a natural event, not caused by a nuclear weapon.

I urge anyone willing to listen to read the Peace Proposal—destruction from modern warfare is unimaginable and entirely preventable if those in power agree to peace.

Oct 30 2025

Layoffs Continue – UPS and Amazon Switch to AI


Posted originally on Oct 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

New and seasonal hires are typically announced during Q4. The opposite is unfolding amid stagflation. UPS announced that, despite favorable earnings, it has cut its operational workforce by 34,000 positions, greater than the initial estimate of 20,000, and an additional 14,000 positions from management. Shrinking a package delivery service ahead of the holiday season signals a broader trend.

Artificial intelligence has been employed in operations to meet growing customer demand. The service has loosened its ties with Amazon, delivering 21.2% fewer packages than last quarter while demand during the first half of the year declined by 13%.

Amazon itself will cut its workforce by 14,000 in the short term. Similar to UPS, the reduction in workforce is not a result of reduced earnings. A leaked memo also detailed that Amazon will need 600,000 fewer employees in the years to come. Careful rhetoric will surround the shift as people fear AI technology.

As Amazon detailed in a blog post:

“Some may ask why we’re reducing roles when the company is performing well. Across our businesses, we’re delivering great customer experiences every day, innovating at a rapid rate, and producing strong business results. What we need to remember is that the world is changing quickly. This generation of AI is the most transformative technology we’ve seen since the Internet, and it’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before (in existing market segments and altogether new ones). We’re convinced that we need to be organized more leanly, with fewer layers and more ownership, to move as quickly as possible for our customers and business.”

Schumpeter BusinessCycle Waves of Creative Destruction

This is Joseph Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction at play. Innovation is paving the way for new technology while leaving the past behind.

Amazon itself and online shopping paved the way for the destruction of the brick-and-mortar stores. By 2020, when the world shut down, consumers relied on the internet for most of their shopping. Amazon expanded by 625% from 2010 to 2020 and continues to grow.

The Industrial Revolution expanded, and the Industrialists, led by the auto stocks, drove the 1929 bull market. The invention of the combustion engine led to tractors for farmers, disproving the theories of Malthus that humanity would starve as the population increased. He never understood the cycles of technology, yet he influenced Gates and the Rockefellers. As farmers had tractors, production increased while employment declined.

Horse Carriage

The horse and buggy were replaced with automobiles. As they expanded, the suburbs came alive. Suddenly, people could live in places without trains. The town I grew up in flourished because we had a train station, which enabled people to buy land and move out of the cities. The town I grew up in expanded further from the train station with the automobile.

Creative Destruction Waves cause unemployment to rise, but commerce expands. The shift from humans to AI is happening now. This will disrupt the system, but the world will adapt as it always does.

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Oct 30 2025

US-Japan Rare Earth Minerals Deal


Posted originally on Oct 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Rare Earths

There is perhaps no more critical resource than rare earth minerals. They largely cannot be created or derived in the US and are absolutely essential for not only manufacturing but also maintaining the nation’s military power. Japan recently lifted the trade export ban on military and defense equipment under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi who declared a “new golden age” alliance with the United States. Japan has now penned a deal with the US to coordinate efforts to coordinate and fund investment and mining efforts for these crucial minerals.

Washington will fund new mining projects throughout Japan and form a “Rapid Response Group” to ensure emergency mineral deliveries when needed. Tokyo is lifting regulations to permit the US to streamline the process from beginning to end.

The two nations will engage in joint stockpiling efforts to fortify the security of the supply chain. Australia and the European Union may be called upon for joint efforts. However, it will be difficult to form trade around rare earths when China processes over 90% of the global supply.

This is one of the reasons why it would be extremely beneficial for the US to explore a rare earth minerals deal with Russia. The West has foolishly sanctioned the very source of what sustains its technological civilization. Russia holds vast reserves of critical rare earth minerals essential for electronics, defense systems, batteries, and renewable energy. Yet, Western policymakers, driven by ideological hatred, have cut off the very lifeline of modern industry.

These sanctions have only forced Moscow to align closer with Beijing. A genuine peace between the United States and Russia will not emerge from diplomats — it will come through trade. The only workable framework is to tie the economies together so deeply that conflict becomes too costly to sustain.

A closer alliance with Japan will only push the US further away from diplomatic ties with Beijing. It is true that Japan has more untapped minerals than Russia; however, the key here is that they are untapped. The US is looking for immediate relief and the majority of the minerals in Japan are lying deep within the seabed.

Roughly 230 metric tons of cobalt, nickel, and other elements are embedded in the seabed floor near Minamitori Island. Japan required US assistance to fund the extraction, which is extremely costly. Russia’s supply is mostly land-based, and the reserves are proven rather than loosely estimated. Russia’s proven reserves far exceed Japan’s, though Japan could become one of the world’s top suppliers if these projects are successful.

No one can compete with China in rare earth minerals at this time. Collaboration is essential.

Oct 30 2025

The Fed & Interest Rates


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

CBDUSA Y 10 29 2025

QUESTION: Marty, Socrates has been right on target with the Fed and interest rates since it had a Directional Change in 2024. I am correct that the Directional Chabge next year implies higher rates thereafter?

Paul

ANSWER: Yes. This year should be a correction to a low. The resistance stands at 4.5%. As you can see from the cyclical-infused stochastic, this is NOT in crash mode. President Donald Trump says he wants more rate cuts to help buttress a wavering US economy.

US10 2YR M 10 29 25

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-point for a second month in a row amid pressure from within and from without. The problem is that both unemployment and inflation are rising, and our computer has forecast STAGFLATION through 2028. Interestingly, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year should narrow. This still indicates capital flight, mainly from Europe. As I have said before, the capital fled Europe for WWI, and since it was here, the Automobile boom into 1929 resulted in capital concentration in the US economy. That is why 1929 was the biggest rally, but call money rates only reached 20% – the lowest of all the major panics since 1882, all because of capital concentration. This is the phase we are entering, which accounts for the shift in the spread as well.

CALLMONY MA

Oct 29 2025

Bill Gates: Climate Change Crisis Averted


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gates Health Monopoly

Bill Gates is calling for a “strategic pivot” on climate change in a 17-page manifesto in which he declares that scientific innovations have averted the crisis. The doomsday prophecies of a climate apocalypse by 2030 have clearly not come to fruition. “Climate change is a serious problem, but it will not be the end of civilization,” he admitted. Instead, the globalist elites, such as Gates, will pivot to disease as their new focus for centralized control.

The COP30 summit in Brazil will be the platform to unveil the next plan of action. “If you think climate is not important, you won’t agree with the memo. If you think climate is the only cause and apocalyptic, you won’t agree with the memo,” Gates said during a roundtable discussion with reporters ahead of the release. “It’s kind of this pragmatic view of somebody who’s, you know, trying to maximize the money and the innovation that goes to help in these poor countries.”

Climate change is still considered problematic but the current control provided by the narrative will suffice. Gates is urging “the climate community” to drive the green premium to zero and begin rigorously measuring climate impact. “Representatives from each of the five sectors should report on progress toward affordable and practical zero-carbon innovations, using the Green Premium as their yardstick,” he added. He highlights his $22 billion vaccination program in third-world nations, believing there is an ROI in terms of impact in addition to his personal net worth.

Gates Vaccinate the World

“I know that some climate advocates will disagree with me, call me a hypocrite because of my own carbon footprint (which I fully offset with legitimate carbon credits), or see this as a sneaky way of arguing that we shouldn’t take climate change seriously,” Gates noted, as he openly has not followed his own guidelines for reducing his carbon footprint. “I’ll let the temperature go up 0.1 degree to get rid of malaria. People don’t understand the suffering that exists today.”

Bill_Gates mosquito

He is asking world leaders to turn the climate summit into a summit for poverty and disease. Why? “Even proven efforts like providing lifesaving vaccines for all the world’s children are not being fully funded. Gavi (the vaccine-buying fund) will have 25 percent less money for the next five years compared to the past five years,” he admitted. He wants funding redirected into his disease and vaccination campaigns.

Agriculture and the green agenda go hand in hand. Controlling the food supply is a method to reduce emissions and adhere to reducing the Green Premium. Hence, Gates purchased an astounding amount of land throughout the nation. He has heavily invested in synthetic food products and meat alternatives. A piece of fruit at the grocery story may be compromised under Gates’ synthetic farming measures that remove the nutritional value of whole foods. Couple this with his campaign to vaccinate the world against every known and unknown illness. Companies are reducing investments in ESG initiatives and the public at large no longer fears climate change. The elites are pivoting toward a new plan to centralize control under the premise of always prevalent disease and poverty.

Oct 29 2025

Grokpedia


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Elon Musk singlehandedly resurrected social media after purchasing Twitter (X) and providing all with a platform for free speech. Musk is using his influence to create an alternative to Wikipedia dubbed Grokpedia that he deemed as “a necessary step toward the xAI goal of understanding the Universe.”

Wikipedia has become one of the most viewed websites in the world, but can it be trusted as a reliable source? Co-founder Larry Sanger is now warning the public not to trust the website he helped to create. “You can trust it to give an establishment view,” Sanger admitted as he explained that the website’s original design has been destroyed.

Wikipedia was initially created as an open online resource that was committed to neutrality. Between 2004-2009, Sanger said Wikipedia was a pioneer in delivering news from a non-biased perspective but that quickly changed. Users had the ability to edit various pages and debate the information from both sides of the platform, but now it is nearly impossible for the average person to participate. “If you make any edit at all you will be sternly warned or kicked out,” Sanger said, noting this often happens on articles that are “unimportant.”

Wikipedia is often the first search result on any given search engine. Ever since the ECM turned in 2015.75, Wikipedia has been usurped as a political propaganda machine by the Deep State. Wikipedia circumvents the law because nobody really owns Wikipedia. They claim that all editors are anonymous, so you have to go to court to try to find out who is posting. Even their moderators, whom they call “SysOps,” are anonymous, which breeds secrecy and encourages fraud. They know they can do anything and cannot be sued, for you do not even know who they are — the ultimate propaganda machine (black box).

All of the intelligence agencies are participating. The only thing Wikipedia tracks is your IP, and that can be faked. After these anonymous people make 500 edits without proving that they are even qualified on the subject, they become an “Extended Confirmed User”  and can become an “administrator,” aka SysOps. Then this anonymous person can undo changes, block users, delete pages, and even edit pages that are supposed to be fully protected.’

The Deep State is attempting to control the narrative by controlling information accessible on the internet. In recent months, Wikipedia editors repeatedly attempted to remove the story on the murder of Iryna Zarutska, a 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee. “Nothing is remarkable about this,” the editors at Wikipedia claim. Wikipedia was eager to cover the death of George Floyd and has enshrined his memory with a page that recognizes the global outrage that followed his death. The mainstream media has a particular agenda and selectively chooses what narratives it wants the masses to believe.

Musk’s alternative website could reform the internet and circumvent the digital information blackout.

Oct 29 2025

The Stupidity of Linear Analysis & Fraud of Climate Change


Posted originally on Oct 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

You are all Wrong

QUESTION: You are known as a climate denier. Why is everyone else wrong but you are right?

GP

Linear vs Cyclical Analaysis

ANSWER: It is basic common sense that is lacking. In all fields of analysis, we face a major crisis: the stupidity of linear analysis, when in fact NOTHING is linear in this universe. If they connect you to measure brain activity and it is a straight flat line, sorry, you are brain dead, and they will pull the plug. The sun fluctuates between solar maximum and minimum, beating as your heart does. Economists reject the idea of a definitive business cycle, so they have a job and advise governments on how to manipulate society. If there is a regular business cycle, then you cannot manipulate it, and they are out of a job. This is like NATO only exists if there is war. They will never advocate peace with Russia, for then you don’t need them, and they are out of a job.

Rise Fall or Empires Climate

These Climate Change morons deliberately avoid serious analysis because it would make them appear biased idiots. They do not want to explain previous ice ages or warming periods. Empires rose during global warming and fell into dust during global cooling, all before fossil fuels were even discovered.

NYC Max Avg Temp 1869 2020

We have the data, and we correlate it with the rise and fall of civilizations to find the ANSWER—not speculation or linear analysis, because these people do not understand cycles in anything. Here is the temperature data from BYC back to 1869. There is ZERO evidence that the world has grown significantly warmer. There are cycles to EVERYTHING without exception. The real cycle is about 150 years, and the subsequent global warming phase should occur from 2065 to 2085. The last one began in 1922 with Arctic melting, and over the next 10 years, you had the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.

Between roughly 1920 and 1940, the Arctic, particularly the North Atlantic sector (Greenland, Svalbard, and the Barents Sea), experienced pronounced warming. This is well-documented in ship logs, scientific papers, and newspaper articles from the time.

1922 Lanark 11 29 1922

Numerous articles appeared in 1922, like the famous Associated Press report titled “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.” This article reported that Norwegian waters were experiencing unusually warm temperatures, glaciers were retreating, and sea ice was significantly reduced.

The point is that in finance, any investor knows that just because the Dow Jones rallies 1,000 points, this money DOES NOT mean it will continue to do that for the next 100 years, month after month. This stupidity of linear analysis, where just because it was warmer this year than last, DOES NOT justify forecasting that this trend will continue indefinitely.

Vid

I am sorry, all of these people claiming climate change are absolute idiots, for NOTHING in this universe performs in a linear, straight progression. I really do not care. Let them disagree with me. They are NOT going to convert me to some fool who actually believes I can debate them and get them to see the error in their analysis. Only a fool thinks he can convince a fool that he is wrong.

Jim Fisk Panic 1869
1869 Sept 25 NYT Front Page 1024x380

I learned about cyclical analysis in high school history class. The teacher showed this 1937 black-and-white film, The Toast of New York, about the Panic of 1869 and Jim Fisk’s cornering of the gold market. Since I worked part-time in a coin/bullion store in the 1960s, I knew that gold was $35 and ounce. In the film, he says gold hit $162.50 in 1869. That bothered me. I went to the library and then discovered that it was indeed the price in the New York Times. Suddenly, the linear analysis I was being taught was all wrong. There was no such steady linear progression. It was cyclical.

Lincoln lie fool the people
Julius Caesar People Believe

Lincoln said, “You can’t fool all the people all the time.” Climate Change is a religion to these people. Julius Caesar noted over 2,000 years ago that people.
“willingly believe what they wish.”

I am NOT here to convince you of anything. I don’t charge you to read this, and I do not sell advertising. I just offer the facts. If you do not have the independent intelligence to make up your own mind but prefer to believe whatever the self-proclaimed authorities tell you, there is no fact or study I could EVER show you to change your mind.

Goodluck with that

Categories:Climate

Oct 29 2025

Why Republics Will Collapse


Posted originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

house_of_cards_fall_anim_300_clr_14631

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have said many times that we are in a phase in which this time it will be the fall of republics, whereas the last time it was monarchy. Could you comment on this? It seems that the Democrats in this shutdown want billions for their illegal aliens while they hurt American citizens. Is this the type of polarization who have been warned about, which brings the house of cards crashing down?

PT

ANSWER: Historically, the intense division between fundamental political factions is not just a symptom of a republic in trouble, but the very disease that always kills it. The fall occurs when the conflict shifts from “how should we govern?” to “who are we as a people?” and is fought with tools outside the established republican framework.

Intense polarization is the warning sign. Political disagreement shifts from policy-based to identity-based. It’s no longer “I disagree with your plan for the economy” but “You and your kind are a threat to the nation itself.” The political opponent becomes an enemy. We are witnessing polarization within republics in the US, Canada, and Europe, to name just a few.

The Democrats see Trump as the “enemy” and constantly claim this is a crisis in democracy because it is not their way alone. We have crossed the Rubicon, and there is now no going back. This shutdown is the confirmation of the decline and fall of the United States, as well as all the rest. I warned at the last WEC in 2024 that the Democratic Party would split, and it is in its collapsing phase.

Cato the Younger Bust

The Optimates faction of Senators who crowned themselves with the title boni  (“the good men”), like a judge who demands to be “honorable” without earning that title, was led by Cato, who was a ruthless power-monger. They were deeply corrupt in their abuse of political norms. They used procedural obstructions, filibusters, and religious technicalities (omens) to block legislation and appointments they disliked, making the normal political process unworkable for anyone outside their clique.

1 Caesar Rubicon Coinage

When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC, the people cheered, and the cities opened their gates. He did NOT fight his way to Rome. The Senate fled because they had no popular support, any more than our Congress does today. History repeats because human nature never changes.

Oct 28 2025

Subprime Auto Lenders Folding


Posted  originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

reposessioncarautos

PrimaLend Capital Partners filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, beckoning the start of America’s personal loan crisis. The subprime auto lender catered to those “buy-here-pay-here” dealerships that cater to those with bad credit. The people cannot pay their loans and the subprime lenders are folding. Delinquencies are rising, repossessions are surging, and the auto-loan market is signaling stresses in the broader economy.

The same issue happened in September with Tricolor Holdings when it filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation. Primalend Capital Partners’ assets and liabilities are estimated to be between $100 million and $500 million, as this was no small lender. The auto loan market in the US has seen balances double over the past 12 years. Subprime borrowers have faced the steepest repercussions, with 6.6% of borrowers currently 60 days past due on auto loans, or the highest rate of delinquency on record.

Auto lenders have $1.66 trillion in outstanding loans across the nation, 5% of which are at least 90 days late, up 12.6% YoY. Vehicle costs have soared in recent years, with the average price for a new vehicle coming in at $50,000. Twenty percent of new car owners are paying over $1,000 monthly for their autos.

New car loans have hit 9%, but used cars have hit nearly 14% and buyers seeking buy-here-pay-here loans are willing to take on an even higher fee. Expenses on car repairs alone have soared 33% since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.

Vehicle repossessions are at their highest level since 2009 during the Great Recession. The trend naturally correlates to historic highs in consumer debt, which spreads into every facet of the economy. The big banks like Barclays and JPMorgan are also taking on hundreds of millions in losses related to these failures and credit stress is on the rise. Cars are essential for employment in the majority of the nation and subprime borrowers are willing to take on more debt, even when they do not have the funds, to access transportation. This is a massive red flag, especially given the rising rate of unemployment. Consumers have been stretched too thin and it will cause a ripple effect throughout the economy.

Oct 28 2025

Japan to Remove Defense Export Ban


Posted  originally on Oct 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

SanaeTakaichiJAPAN

Japan has strictly regulated, if not banned, the majority of defense exports for over three decades. Japan recently outbid Germany for a lucrative contract to export submarines to Australia, marking the first major defense contract in years. Japan also assisted the US in creating Patriot missiles that have been in high demand since the start of the war in Ukraine. Under new leadership, Japan plans to remove bans on defense exports.

The Liberal Democratic Party was aligned with the Buddhist Party Komeito and essentially took a pacifist stance. Critics accused Komeito of falling under Beijing’s influence and prioritizing amity to prevent the nation from increasing its adherence to and loyalty to NATO and the West.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, have taken a nationalist stance and plan to abolish any defense export restrictions. The “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology” currently provides guidelines for Japan’s defense trade.

The Three Principles:

Prohibition Principle: Transfers are prohibited in specific cases—such as when they would violate Japan’s treaty obligations, U.N. Security Council resolutions, or are destined for countries involved in international conflicts or subject to UN measures for peace and security.​

Permissible Cases Principle: Transfers may be permitted only if they promote international peace, cooperation, or Japan’s own security, and must undergo rigorous, transparent examination. This process aims to support humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, peacekeeping, counter-terrorism, anti-piracy operations, and capacity building.​

Control Principle: Every transfer requires strict controls against the equipment being repurposed for unauthorized uses or being transferred to third countries. Recipient governments must obtain Japan’s prior consent for any change in use or third-party transfers.​

Japan must go through third parties to transfer or export weapons. Politicians must craft creative rhetoric to pretend that all defense trade adheres to the Three Principles. New PM Takaichi would like Japan to operate as a “normal” country that does not need to restrict defense to peacemaking obligations. China, Russia, and North Korea are now openly viewed as a threat.

Japan will not become a mega defense manufacturer overnight, but the move is quite a historic break from decades of postwar pacifism. The new administration plans to increase spending on military and defense to 2% of GDP by March 2026 as it prepares to protect itself beyond the shield of the US.