Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Texas is open for business—permanently—as the state solidifies business-friendly measures in its constitution. Texas is signaling to businesses and institutions that it is safe to relocate, as the state will not be vulnerable to massive political regulatory shifts.
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is poised to open in Dallas next year.Y’all Street has been rapidly booming in popularity as Wall Street refugees flee south. There are already nearly 400,000 financial professionals in the area and institutions like Goldman have plans to create new facilities nearby. To ensure that businesses continue to flee south, Texas has permanently issued a ban on securities transaction taxes. By law, the state may not impose taxes on payroll transactions or financial trades.
Conduct business in Texas, and Texas will not extort your earnings. New modifications to the Constitution prohibit any taxes on capital gains. Texas will not profit from the sale of real estate, capital assets, the sale of investments. Businesses can rest easy in knowing that there will not be a tax on success at the state level. Let us not forget that the Biden Administration wanted to slap a 44.6% tax on capital gains federally. There have been proposals at both the state and federal levels to tax unrealized gains—a sure way to financial suicide.
Again, wealth is not a punishable offense in Texas. The third constitutional amendment bans inheritance and estate taxes. Inheritance Taxes are Marxist and highly destructive economically. Suppose you have a company worth $100 million; your children must pay 40% taxes. They have to fire people and sell assets to cover the tax. Heirs have been forced to sell their family businesses or farms to pay inheritance/death taxes. It is a Marxist assault on property and passing on family wealth. The tax itself disincentives entrepreneurs from creating a legacy. No one aims to work their lives away only to pass on their earnings to the state.
CAPITAL MUST BE ATTRACTED. Capital cannot be strangled or confined. Hunting down capital causes it to flee for safety, a safety that can now be found in Texas.
Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
President Donald Trump has proposed a $2,000 tariff “dividend” to every American. Reminiscent of the stimulus checks provided during COVID-19, the payment comes at a time of low public confidence in government and government policy.
Tariffs generated $151 billion between April and October, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes duty collections will reach half a trillion per year.
This does not simply mean that the US federal government has a few extra billion lying around to disperse to the public. America has over $37 trillion in debt that is expanding by the second. Tariffs are an indirect tax paid by consumers through higher prices, not a penalty absorbed solely by foreign producers. A “dividend” payment to Americans would offset that indirect tax. This is not inflationary in itself, rather, it is merely shifting money from importers and consumers back to individuals. It’s a redistribution, not a monetary expansion.
“The $2,000 divided could come in lots of forms,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing.” Also reminiscent of the COVID stimulus checks, these payments likely would not go to Americans earning over a certain threshold. The US does not need to stimulate spending at this time. Consumer spending remains high amid inflation. Consumer sentiment is low, but that does not correlate with spending; however, it does correlate with confidence.
The nation recently witnessed the celebration of a socialist politician, Zohran Mamdani, who became the mayor of NYC through free offerings. The public has its hand out and is waiting for the government to fix the cost-of-living crisis. The premise is more of a political stimulus rather than a monetary one.
The public always demands government do something, and politicians respond with short-term gimmicks to preserve power. But the underlying problem is systemic. We’re witnessing the end of Keynesian economics. The idea that government can endlessly manage the economy through fiscal manipulation is dying.
Posted originally on Nov 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your site. I have a question. I understand you are a trader, not an academic. That is the only reason I do read you. Why are academics incapable of ever forecasting the economy?
ANSWER: If you just listen to the interview of Larry Summers on forecasting, you will see that they do not believe you can forecast anything because it is complex like , so weather if your forecast come true, it is only because of influence – not some model forecast. This is why they have hated me so much. They refuse to accept that there can even be a model or cyclical analysis.
Posted originally on Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The next report is now in the portal for those attending the WEC November 21-23 in Orlando. This is going over the various aspects of the model and it deals with the post-2032 period as well as between here and there. I put a lot of work into this report to deal with the big questions ahead.
Posted originally on Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Do you see the world coming to the brink of nuclear war or the collapse of governments? How do we survive?
LQ
ANSWER: We are headed into a major change politically on a global perspective. That is NOT the end of the world. This is an opportunity for us to reset government and let us just once learn from the past and make the necessary corrections. This is a big change, just as overthrowing the monarchy was the last time.
As far as nuclear war, Europe is the real risk. They are pushing for war rather than reform just to retain power. They honestly believe that they can conquer Russia and that save the European Union. Sorry, that is a failed idea. If NATO invades Russia, then expect at least tactical nukes.
I am doing my best to try to keep the USA out of this mess. I cannot prevent war, the best I hope is that I can reduce the amplitude. We will make it through these confusing times. If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched.
originally on Posted Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
American household debt has reached a new all-time high after rising by $197 billion in Q3 to $18.59 trillion. American consumers, the breadbasket of the national economy, are overleveraged. The economy is less likely to absorb shocks from trade disruptions or shifting interest rates.
Two-thirds of US GDP is based on consumer spending. Trade was bountiful in this consumer economy as other nations lined up to sell to the American consumers. Manufacturing was once a strong point, but it has since flattened, now in an eight-month consecutive contraction. Government, institutions, businesses, and now the consumer are drowning in debt—confidence in the future has vanished.
The situation is dire, multiplying in scope since the pandemic. Overall debt has spiked $4.4 trillion since the end of 2019. Mortgage balances have reached $13.07 trillion, up $137 billion from last quarter. People are holding onto their pandemic-era mortgage rates for dear life. The over-asking price bidding wars are over as real estate is firmly in a buyers’ market. The younger generation cannot enter the housing market.
Student loan debt is now calculated in overall household debt. Millions believed the last administration’s promise that their debt would be forgiven. Student loan debt reached a record high of $1.65 trillion, rising $15 billion from last quarter. Nearly 10% of all student debt has been reported as 90 days delinquent.
Credit card balances went up $24 billion in Q3 to $1.23 trillion. Interest and principal may be flowing from households to banks and financial institutions, for now, but the softening labor market indicates that delinquencies will continue to rise.
Debt servicing costs will rise as lenders aim to offset any additional losses. Consumer spending has been steady broadly speaking but consumers are spending more on less. With the U.S. consumer heavily leveraged, the capacity to absorb shocks from trade disruptions, rising interest rates, or global capital shifts is reduced. If the American consumer hurts, the entire economy feels the pain.
Posted originally on Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The US workforce saw a brief bump in hiring this October, coupled with a steep rise in firings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely not publish job data again this year due to the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of the US workforce is unavailable, but what we do have is independent data from the ADP and Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
On one side, the private sector scored its first notable month of hirings since July 2025. The ADP estimates that employers brought on 42,000 new employees last month, exceeding expectations. Mega corporations led in new hires for the month. Trade, transportation, and utilities added 47,000 new jobs, followed by education and health care at 25,000. Professional business services experienced a 15,000 loss, information positions were cut by 17,000, and leisure and hospitality shed 5,000 jobs.
Pay increased at a 4.5% annual rate. Some see the ADP data as promising, considering the 29,000 positions lost in September.
However, Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that firings in October peaked at a 22-year high. Job cuts for the month surged 183% from September to 153,074, also marking a 175% annual rise. This is the highest reading for layoffs in October since 2003. The agency found that 2025 has seen the steepest layoffs since the Great Recession era of 2009.
“Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer at the firm. “At a time when job creation is at its lowest point in years, the optics of announcing layoffs in the fourth quarter are particularly unfavorable.”
Nonprofit agencies shed 27,651, a 419% annual rise. The agency reported that 27,651 jobs in the tech sector, an area that is rapidly shrinking, with total layoffs coming in six times higher than in September.
AI replacement is fueling the workforce contraction that was ignited by a loss of confidence. Lower rates did not entice companies to expand their workforce last month, as they see no growth in the future. Companies will continue to replace jobs with AI or outsource to India where possible. Cities requiring a high minimum wage will begin moving to AI immediately.
There have been over 1.1 million layoffs in 2025, a 65% increase from the same time period in 2024. The economy has not seen such a “softening” since the world shutdown in 2020. Our computer models indicate that this is, unfortunately, the beginning of a trend, and we will see companies continue to downsize in 2026.
Posted originally on Nov 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
I have written about how in 260AD, Emperor Valerian (253-260AD) led the Roman army against the Sassanian Persian Empire, ruled by King Shapur I. At the Battle of Edessa, the Roman army was decisively defeated, and Valerian was taken prisoner. This was an unprecedented and catastrophic event—a Roman Emperor had been captured alive on the battlefield. That was the first time in history. That set off a financial panic.
When Valerian was captured and Rome could not rescue him, the confidence in the Empire began to collapse. People were even suddenly skeptical about accepting Roman coins. Would they still be worth anything since they were valued over and above their actual metal content?
A document from Egypt has survived illustrating the financial crisis that was unleashed. It is from Aurelius Ptolemaeus who is the strategus of the Oxyrhynchitenome. The public officials gathered and accused the bankers of closing their doors on account of their unwillingness to accept the divine coins of the Emperors. It became necessary that an order had to be issued to all the owners of the banks directing them to open and accept and exchange all coins except the absolutely spurious and counterfeit. It was also directed that all who engaged in business transactions who refused to comply would be penalized. (POxy 1411 260AD, cited by Burnett 1987: p104)
Valerian’s capture was a massive propaganda victory for Shapur. Persian inscriptions and rock reliefs (like at Naqsh-e Rostam and Bishapur) show Valerian humiliated—submitting to Shapur on his knees, or being held captive by the king. This is what Iran has turned into a statue.
Valerian’s body was never returned to Rome and his son, Gallienus couldn’t rescue his father because the entire Roman world was on fire, and leaving the heart of the empire undefended would have meant its immediate collapse. While Valerian was in the East, Gallienus was fighting for his life in the West.
Massive invasions by the Germanic tribes, the Alamanni and Franks, had broken through the Rhine frontier, penetrating deep into Gaul, Raetia, and even reaching as far as Italy and Spain. The Goths and other tribes were launching devastating seaborne raids across the Black Sea and the Aegean, attacking the Balkans and the coast of Asia Minor. If Gallienus had marched the bulk of his army east to Persia, there would have been nothing to stop these Germanic tribes from overrunning Italy and sacking Rome itself.
The capture of Valerian created a power vacuum and a perception of weakness that immediately led to rebellion also within the Roman Empire. Just after Valerian’s capture, the military commander Postumus was proclaimed emperor in the West. He seized control of Gaul, Germania, Britannia, and Hispania, creating a separate, breakaway empire that would last for 14 years. Gallienus spent the next several years fighting Postumus in a civil war, unable to dislodge him.
In the East, the Sasanian Persian King Shapur I, who had previously captured Roman Emperor (Valerian), invaded the eastern Roman provinces. With the central Roman government in crisis (the period known as the Crisis of the Third Century), it fell to Zenobia’s Palmyrene forces to defend the region. Zenobia’s brilliant general, Zabdas, was the primary military commander in these campaigns. The Palmyrene army soundly defeated the Persians, pushing them back and even securing territories like much of Roman Arabia and parts of Egypt.
This period saw a revolving door of emperors and usurpers. Gallienus himself had to deal with at least eighteen known usurpers during his reign. Marching east would have been an open invitation for another general to seize Italy. This is where the legend comes in. The most gruesome account comes from the later Roman historian Lactantius, a Christian writer who was deeply hostile to the pagan emperors who had persecuted Christians (Valerian was one of them). He claims that Valerian died in captivity, King Shapur had his body flayed (skin removed). The skin was then tanned and dyed with vermilion (a red pigment). This preserved, red-colored skin was then stuffed with straw and put on display in a Persian temple as a permanent war trophy and a symbol of the Persian victory over Rome. Most assume that this account was invented as a powerful piece of moralizing propaganda piece as the fate of pagans.
Iran Resurrecting this Historical Event is to show that Iran defeated even the Roman Empire
Posted originally on Nov 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
I still maintain that criminal charges should be filed for this is clearly election interference. Until journalists are criminally charges for falk news, the public will NEVER get the truth about anything.
Posted originally on Nov 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: The latest that the pipe bomb was planted in a desperate effort to turn January 6th into a civil war to invoke the 14th Amendment to prevent Trump from ever running for office is no different than you cost Soros $2 billion, Safra $1 billion and so on by forecasting Russia would collapse and they retaliated since you refused to invest $10 billion for their regime change in Russia. The recent revelation that the neocons at the CIA assassinated JFK, all have a common thread. It has always been about the conquest of Russia. This makes Watergate look like child’s play, and even that was carried out by ex-CIA operatives. No wonder JFK wanted to shut down the CIA. This is about running the country and eliminating all our freedoms. With your track record in forecasting, unmatched by anyone else, you should be on the front page of the Wall Street Journal. Mainstream media ignores you because they take their orders from this same group.
With each revelation, the real enemy is within, not Russia.
LM
ANSWER: This is a coup against the American people. Everywhere you turn there are people with their fingers in this pot. They would not even allow Bobby Kennedy to run on the Democratic ticket. Kamala never stood in a primary, she was just appointed like Ursula in the EU. Screw Democracy. Everything they do is to keep the reins of power in the Deep State and it is far more sinister than most realize. The Neocons are well entrenched even in the Trump Administration right down to Scott Bessent.
Planting this pipe bomb outside the Democratic Headquarters was to make it look like Trump supporters are insurrectionists indeed to use the 14th Amendment against Trump. The only pretend Republicans allowed on the January 6th Committee were the Neocons – Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who said we could take Russia in 3 days and started “Republicans for Harris” all to keep WWIII in their control. Thank God Kinzinger was voted out of office in 2023.
I had tapes of bankers expressly saying that they were paying bribes within Russia to manipulate markets. In 1993, the Russian government established the company Almazyuvelirexport (AUEX). This entity was given a state monopoly on the export of precious metals (like platinum, palladium, and rhodium) and gemstones (especially diamonds). I was told that they paid bribes to cut off the sale of platinum to drive the price up so they could exploit the auto manufacturers. I was even approached by a lawyer for Ford who was considering filing a lawsuit against the bankers for that manipulation. The AUEX prohibited the right to export platinum, by anyone other than them. The bankers were even involved in a manipulation of rhodium which went from $700 in 1980. By 1995, rhodium had fallen back to roughly $500 per ounce, down from the spectacular 1990 peak above $6,000/oz — a drop of over 90% in five years.
The Soviet Union had built up massive stockpiles of PGMs, especially palladium. After the USSR collapsed in 1991, the new Russian government began selling these stockpiles to earn hard currency. This influx of metal kept global prices suppressed. Around 1995-1997, these stockpile sales suddenly slowed down and then largely stopped. The reasons were never fully transparent but were linked to deliberate strategy to support prices.
All the tapes I had were seized by the court to protect the banks, then the receiver who made that motion, Alan Cohen, magically became a board member of Goldman Sachs and continued to run my company from the board of Goldman. Then they claimed all the tapes were destroyed in the World Trade Center 911 attack to protect the banks.
It was Scott Bessent when he worked for Soros was the real architect of shorting the pound in 1992. He is the one that convinced Soros to take that trade. He was also with Soros in 1998/1999 when they were on investing in Russia along with everyone else. That is when I was asked to put in $10 billion to pull off a regime change in Russia and I refused. Bessent did not leave Soros until 2000. I do not know the full extent of his involvement in that trade other than he was there.
Scott Bessent has publicly taken a strongly anti-Vladimir Putin / pro-Ukraine stance — and while he stops short of explicitly calling for unlimited war, his statements clearly support Ukraine, declare Russia’s aggression unacceptable, and back aggressive economic measures against Russia. I question his motives and if this is still the same old story of the NY bankers and hedge fund boys trying to take over Russia and all the gold, oil, diamonds, platinum, lumber, rare earths will all go through NY dealing desks. I do not understand how
According to Wikipedia, Bessent was a Democrat and donated to them until 2024. He was an economic adviser and fundraiser for Trump’s 2024 campaign. That relationship with Trump helped position him for the nomination. I find this curious.
The people doing the movie on me filed for FOIA trying to get all the communications behind who was demanding we be shut down by the banks and hedge funds who were always trying to manipulate the markets and the CFTC claimed they had nothing refusing to turnover anything. It had long been implied that Soros was behind that as well, after losing $2 billion when on the pound trade he made only $1 billion. Yet, the CFTC refused to turn over anything as a Deep State controlled entity typically does.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 