Ukraine, NATO, & Europe Will NEVER Accept Peace with Russia – You Will See


Posted  originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Trump vs Zelensjy

I have to admit that what I have seen from the Western Press is nothing but absurd propaganda and complete ignorance of the concept of strategy. They love to say Trump failed after previously pushing for a ceasefire and threatening severe consequences for Russia if Putin did not stop the war. President Trump appeared to back off that demand. WHY? If I were Putin, there would be no way I would agree to a ceasefire because the last time that only opens a window to rearm Ukraine. These morons are complete idiots at best, may be able to play checkers, but certainly never chess. I do not see any intelligence commenting on any network with the slightest concept of strategy.

Ukraine War

Trump offered a security guarantee, and Steve Witkoff had told CNN that Russia agreed to “Article 5-like” protections for Ukraine during Friday’s summit. This is precisely what I have been saying. Putin has been there since 1999, and he has shown ZERO interest in taking all of Europe. That is the NATO/NEOCON Bullshit that was true with Khruschev when it was a war of Communism vs Capitalism.

Putin is very Smart

Every source I have says the same thing that Putin may be the most intelligent man on the world table. Even the declassified document from Bill Clinton, dated November 19, 1999, said the same thing.

NATO_Defeat Russia_in_3_Days Adam Kinzinger
Neocon Propaganda

The Neocon propaganda will not relent. They keep up this endless desire to conquer Russia. If all my sources say the same thing, surely Putin must understand the same thing. That is why if I were him, NEVER would I agree to a ceasefire. Trump repeatedly expressed optimism that “We’re gonna have a lasting peace” after his meeting with Putin. That is his desire. The Russian people also do not want war, just as the average European or American. Leaders – not the average person- create wars.

Goring Herman on War

Even Field Marshall Goring testified to that at Nuremberg. That is how it always works. You have to bullshit the people, demonize your opponent, to manipulate people to think they are doing the right thing. It is always the same routine. A friend who works with veterans, at dinner, told me that working with World War II vets compared to Vietnam Vets is like night and day. The Vietnam Vets were lied to, abused, and were chemically poisoned.  The high rates of cancer among Vietnam veterans are not coincidental. They are a direct consequence of widespread exposure to the dioxin-contaminated herbicide Agent Orange during their service. The carcinogenic properties of dioxin, combined with other risk factors prevalent during wartime service, have led to devastating health outcomes decades later. While the VA now provides compensation and healthcare for these service-connected illnesses, the human cost remains immense. I have been told that they are angry compared to World War II Vets who believed they saved Europe.

Zelensky WWIII

My sources do not believe Zelensky nor ANY European leader, and especially NATO, whose ONLY purpose in its existence has been to create war. You have NATO demanding 5% of GDP when the entire growth rate of the EU for 2024 came in at  +0.5% (27 countries), whereas the growth rate for the whole of the Euro area was just +0.4% (EA20). This demand from NATO will fulfill our model forecasting for an economic decline into 2028. The EU is looking at war as its ONLY option; otherwise, the people will be storming their parliaments with this type of massive economic contraction.

Trump DC Summit with Europe

Trump met with the European warmongers led by Sir Keir Starmer. The leaders of France, Finland, Germany, and Italy, alongside the heads of NATO, the real leader of the pack, as well as the EU, muscled their way into this meeting. All seven leaders said they will ALWAYS be on the side of Ukraine and that the conflict with Russia must end. All my sources have warned that they will stab Trump in the back in the blink of an eye. Trump agreed with the calls for “long-term” peace, but Europe is not genuine in this regard.

While Trump had promised Putin he would call after the meeting, he picked up the phone and called Putin during the meeting. I am thoroughly disgusted at the dishonesty of Europe in this regard, and they cannot be that stupid to think that the West did not organize this entire war. They obviously only care about clinging to power rather than actually representing the people. As I said all along, all they had to do was honor the Minsk Agreement, and there would never have been a war.

I am so glad I am 75 and not 18. But my greatest lament is for my grandchildren. Zelensky was a NeoNatzi pretending to be Christian, and he is Hitler 2.0 because Ukraine still celebrated Bandera as a hero who was engaged in ethnic cleansing. Ukraine should not be totally abandoned. They attacked the pipeline to Hungary, and when Hungary accused Ukraine of an “outrageous and unacceptable” attack that disabled a Russian oil pipeline supplying this NATO ally, Zelensky’s arrogant response was an outright lie – Russia had started the war. So Hungary should send its complaints to Moscow instead.

Ukraine Nazi Parade
Bandera in March
Indepentent Neo Nazis

Many Ukrainians are still Neo-Nazis and hate Russians. They still march with images of the ethnic cleanser Bandara, who had Polish, Russians, and Jewish pregnant women cut open, removed their babies, and sewn in live cats. This has all been documented. This is our own fault. The CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis simply because they were also ethnically cleansing all Russians. They were NEVER prosecuted, so Uktaine is still invested with bitter ethnic hatred with ZERO chance of resolution.

May 2 2014 Odessa Trade Unions House

Ukrainian Revolution (January–February 2014)

Protests turned violent in January 2014 after the government passed draconian anti-protest laws and police brutally dispersed demonstrators. The deadliest phase occurred from February 18–20th, 2014, when snipers and riot police killed over 100 protesters in Kiev, yet as Olive Stone demonstrated, it was the Ukrainians killing their own people because Victoria Nuland said the US would not intervene unless the protesters had been killed. Then on February 21st, 2014, Yanukovych fled Kyiv after signing a short-lived EU-brokered agreement. The next day, parliament voted to remove him from office.

The very next month, in May 2014, the Ukrainians began to attack Russians on the street, beating them and killing them. They wanted all Russians dead, and the Western Press turned a blind eye.  The hatred in Ukraine of non-Ukrainians goes back to the ethnic cleansing they engaged in when they were Nazis. They hate Russians, along with all other minorities, they hate and do not trust. Make no mistake about it: if Russia loses, the Ukrainians will massacre all Russians in the Donbas territory, and the Western Press will never report anything. The West ignores the fact that the Ukrainians carried out a massacre of ethnic Russians who lived in Odessa as soon as the 2014 Revolution, and that is what started this entire civil war that the Western Press will not address.

Bismark on Balkans

Oleksandr Turchynov was installed by Victoria Nuland et el as the unelected Acting President of Ukraine (February–June 2014). His government ignored the killing of Russians in Odessa. When they moved to separate, it was no different than what took place in Chechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, with similar ethnic differences that plague the Balkans, as Bismarck warned back in 1888, he instituted this civil war, claiming it was a response to escalating violence orchestrated by pro-Russian separatists after the Odessa Massacre.

Odessa Massacre May 2014

The 2014 Odessa Massacre of Russian-speaking civilians who were killed by the Ukrainians on the streets was the resurfacing of the Nazi Ethnic Cleansing. When the civilians fled for safety into the Trade Union Building, the nationalist Ukrainians burned them alive. That was the turning point. It revealed that the Donbas had to separate, for the Ukrainian hatred of Russians was out to annihilate every last one of them – not their submission to Kiev. Victoria Nuland told them to call it an anti-terrorist action because they sought a democratic solution to vote for their freedom.

The 2014 Odessa Massacre is ignored by the Western Press because they are too busy promoting World War III. For the first time in history, an organized massacre of civilians was carried out and even filmed by numerous people. The West was silent and cheered the deaths of Russian civilians. This has been documented in extraordinary detail, and the Ukrainians did not even fear any negative consequences in world opinion because the Neocons also hate Russians.

Oleksandr V. Turchynov

The historical record shows that Oleksandr Turchynov, as Acting President of Ukraine (February–June 2014), initiated the civil war, claiming that he was acting against terrorists simply because they were defending themselves, their language, which was then outlawed, and their religion.

Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, which was a strategic military base similar to the US base in Japan at Okinawa. Russian military personnel and equipment were located there. It was an invasion. Following the Odessa Massacre, the Russian population of the Donbas declared “independence,” leading to violent clashes with Ukrainian police. It was formally on April 13th, 2014, when Turchynov announced an Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) as the excuse to justify civil war. As Al Jazeera reported on April 13th, 2014“Ukrainian security forces have launched an ‘anti-terrorist’ operation to end the grip of separatists on an eastern town, according to the country’s interior minister.”

Ukraine Attacks Donbas 4 23 2014

There are just no independent journalists left in the West. Mainstream gets its talking points from the Neocons, including Fox News quoting the Institute for the Study of War, started by Victoria Nuland’s sister-in-law. All you have to do is look at the press reporting in 2014. It was the UNELECTED government installed by Victoria Nuland and her Neocons, who then directed them to attack the Donbas to draw in Putin.

Here, the Associated Press states at the beginning, “Ukraine’s acting President,” meaning unelected, since the Ukrainian people NEVER voted for war. Ukraine had just gone through a revolution, but the Donbas wanted to split from Ukraine because they hated Russians who had lived in the Donbas and Crimea for hundreds of years. The media never looked at the facts or the truth and has constantly promoted World War III.

Minsk Agreement Head of State

Vide

There was a peace deal, and that was all agreed to, that the Donbas would be allowed to vote and separate just as Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. That was the way out, and it was NOT Putin or Russia that killed that deal – it was the West, where Merkel admitted that they never intended to honor that peace deal. Yet the Western press constantly puts out the Nocon propaganda promoting war and claims it is Putin who cannot be trusted.

Merkel_Minsk_Buy_Time_to Prepare for wart

The press is hell-bent on promoting World War III and they do not give a shit about the people and assume that Russia can be defeated in the blink of an eye. They never consider that no war in history has unfolded as expected.

Ukraine No Peace

Zelensky claimed that Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits surrendering territory.

wwiii ww iii

On top of all of that, Zelenskyy claimed that Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits surrendering territory or any territorial deals. In other words, there can be NO PEACE DEAL. No matter what they tell Trump, they will stab him in the back, and the computer will be correct again – WWIII is on the horizon.

EU Washington Summit

All of the European leaders came to Washington to back Zelensky, that there will BE NO PEACE in Ukraine. They all met FIRST at the Ukrainian Embassy to strategize to get Trump to reject any peace deal, for they want to conquer Russia because the EU will collapse economically. These people are insane, and they are playing with billions of lives all for a failed EU government that was never designed correctly from the outset.

IBEUUS M Tech 8 18 25

The models are starting to warn about Europe in the future. We still have Panic Cycle in 2026 in both our war models and in the Euro. Sources are reporting that NATO is feeding the propaganda that Russia is weak, they can be utterly destroyed, and these stupid European leaders think that war will never reach their soil. The excuse I have heard is that Putin would NEVER use nukes because it would blow back on him.

pygmies_of_Europe_still_haven_t_realised_how_irrelevant_they_ve_become_over_

As the Telegraph just wrote:

“Sir Keir Starmer and the leaders of Europe have agreed to stand united. Defying Vladimir Putin’s bloody imperialism, they will back to the hilt Volodymyr Zelensky’s insistence that he will not trade land for peace.

Except there is one small problem. Instead of presenting their ironclad unity to the Kremlin, they’ll be doing so to Donald Trump, urging him to impose further sanctions on Russia and not to cave to more of Putin’s demands.”

There is ABSOLUTELY no intent ever to have peace with Russia – NEVER!

Churchill on Truth

When we are dealing with the direct threat of the total destruction and breakup of Russia, I would be pushing every single button if their intent is total destruction.

We have Panic Cycles in Both War & the Euro for 2026

These European Leaders with Zelensky will Stab Trump in the Back to Ensure We Get WWIII

Intl War Index 12 30 22
IBEUUS Y Array 8 11 25

Carbon Butter – You Will Eat Synthetic Food


originally on Posted Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

You are the carbon that they wish to eliminate. “You will eat bugs,” as the infamous Klaus Schwab line goes, was merely the beginning of what the globalists intent on ushering in the Great Reset have planned for the masses. Food production is bad for the environment, therefore, the people must resort to lab-created synthetic products.

All of this may sound like it is coming from a dystopian novel but the plans have been enacted. I reported on lab-grown meat facilities that are growing in number and popularity. The latest synthetic product is carbon butter—a butter-like substance made using carbon dioxide, hydrogen, and oxygen to synthesize fat molecules without animals, oils, or plants.

Savor, the startup company in Batavia, Illinois that is creating this product is backed by none other than Bill Gates. “So you’re using this gas right now to cook your food and we’re proposing that we would like to first make your food with— with that gas,” said Kathleen Alexander, co-founder and CEO of Savor.

“This is pretty novel, to be able to make food that looks and tastes and feels exactly like dairy butter, but with no agriculture whatsoever,” said Jordan Beiden-Charles, food scientist for Savor. “It’s really just our fat, some water, a little bit of lecithin as an emulsifier, and some natural flavor and color,” Beiden-Charles said.

bill gates farmland

“Traditional agriculture” leaves too large of a carbon footprint for these globalists who wish to control the food supply. Savor claims that synthetic butter will taste exactly like traditional dairy butter, and no one will know whether they’re eating the real deal or a lab-grown product. The company plans to release chocolates created with carbon butter ahead of the 2025 Christmas season, with retail stores expected to carry the product by 2027.

As Bill Gates noted on a blog post:

“Our plan can’t be to simply hope that people give up foods they crave. After all, humans are wired to want animal fats for a reason—because they’re the most nutrient-rich and calorie-dense macronutrient—in the same way we’re wired to crave sugar for an instant energy kick. What we need are new ways of generating the same fat molecules found in animal products, but without greenhouse gas emissions, animal suffering, or dangerous chemicals. And they have to be affordable for everyone.”

Gates goes on to say that palm oil is destroying the planet. “If animal fat is the superstar of some meals, then palm oil is the team player that can work to make almost all foods—and non-edible goods—even better,” he noted. A separate company funded by Gates called C16 is focused on lab-produced palm oils.

What impact will these synthetic products have on human health? No one knows. No one cares. Agriculture is taboo in their eyes and must come to an end.

1.6 Million Migrants Deported Under Trump


Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

The Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey indicates that the number of migrants declined by 1.6 million since Trump took office, with the total foreign-born population falling by 2.2 million. The bureau estimates that the illegal migrant population in the US now stands at 14.2 million.

The true illegal population remaining in the US is unknown. FAIR estimated in March 2025 that the figure could stand at 18.6 million. The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) put the figure at 15.8 million, representing a 50% increase since 2021. The total foreign-born population reached 53.3 million in January 2025, according to most estimates, with illegal migrants composing around 29% of that figure.

Under Biden, new arrivals were averaging 120,000 per month, but over the last six months, America has seen the illegal population declining by 270,000 on a monthly basis. “The best evidence we have is that the illegal population is now falling at a rate that even exceeds the massive growth that we had in Biden’s four years,” CIS research director Steven A. Camarota said. Camarota indicated that if the current trend persists, the nation could see the total foreign-born population decline for the first time in nearly 100 years.

2024_05_14_11_07_12_The_2024_Migrant_Crisis_Word

“It’s likely that this represents a savings in money for the taxpayer,” he said. “It will take pressure off schools and hospitals and other services. It’s likely it will potentially create job opportunities for Americans.”

Less than a year ago, cities were scrambling for housing solutions for migrants. State and city budgets had toppled, and the number of arrivals steadily soared to the point where it was absolutely fiscally impossible for any local, state, or even the federal government to adequately maintain the illegal population.

The open border policy was absolutely treasonous. This authorized invasion cannot be solved overnight. Some estimates believe it could take over a decade to deport everyone who entered under Biden-Kamala-Schwab, with some estimates believing it will take 30 years. Again, no one knows exactly who or how many people entered the borders, and this effort could halt under a new administration.

Drone Education Coming to Lithuanian Schools


Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Drone.Kid_

Children across Europe are learning firearm skills as governments prepare for an inevitable global conflict. Schools in Lithuania are implementing a tech-savvy course for children to learn how to operate drones, as the next war will not be fought with direct combat.

The defence and education ministries issued a joint statement stating that they plan to “expand civil resistance training” by teaching over 22,000 children how to fly drones. The program will be offered to children between eight and ten years old, with adjustments for grade level. Children will not only learn how to fly drones, but they will also learn how to build and manufacture simple drones and drone parts.

Adults throughout the nation will. We plan that 15,500 adults and 7,000 children will acquire drone control skills by 2028. In September we will open drone control centres in Jonava, Tauragė and Kėdainiai, and we will open six more drone training centres in other regions of Lithuania by 2028 and will also be expected to learn this new crucial survival skill,” Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė proclaimed.

The government plans to spend €3.3 million on the initial education program, which will include training equipment, control and video transmission systems, and a mobile app.

Ukraine is also teaching children UAV technology in the classroom and has implemented drone flying competitions and obstacle courses into the regular curriculum.

Russian children are learning the same technology. In fact, Russian defense companies are headhunting teenagers who exhibit advanced video game skills that could be translated into drone operation. Berloga, a video game launched in 2022, requires the player to defend themselves against swarms of bees using drones. Hundreds of thousands of Russian children play this game, and many earn extra credit on exams for successfully advancing in the game. The top players are recruited into advanced competitions where headhunters lurk to find the next generation of UAV operators. “We were forbidden to say that it was needed for the war, and we invented civilian applications. It’s a children’s program … A project must always have a dual purpose, especially when you’re a school student. It’s an unwritten rule I’ve observed at every competition,” one anonymous source told the Guardian.

European nations are preparing the youth for war. Those in power are well aware that this war is escalating to the point that it will last long enough for primary school-aged children to become future soldiers.

If You Do Not Know Your Enemy – You Will Be Defeated


Posted originally on Aug 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Sun Su Art of War Know Your Enemy

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have to commend you. You are the only true analyst who has genuine sources. You have maintained that Putin has wanted peace, not to take all of Ukraine. A close friend of mine in the German government admitted that you have some of the best sources because you speak to all sides. He said that Trump got Putin to agree to NATO-like guarantees for Ukraine without joining NATO. They said precisely the opposite, and he confirmed that it has been the narrative from NATO. He said you are correct. My friend said you are highly respected and you have routinely refused to take any formal position in any government since the days of Ronald Reagan.

Thank you for being so genuine.

Alex

Scotland Lockdown

REPLY: Let me explain something. Academics in economics try to use formulas and are myopic in their perspective. They rely entirely on linear analysis and NEVER understand the implications of how we are all connected. For climate change, they used COVID to lock down the world, and every government was calling it a “lockdown,” which is exclusively an American prison term. That demonstrated that the entire COVID scam had a central point where everyone was quoting the exact phrase, no matter what country.

Nordstream Pipeline Russia

Then the Neocons wanted sanctions imposed on Russia under the same theory they always deploy, thinking that if they cut off the revenue of Russia, the country will collapse. NEVER do they realize that since we are all connected, they would undermine the German economy and ensure that Europe itself may collapse before Russia ever will. They even blew up NordStream and tried to blame that on Putin, which he could have just turned off the valve.





Bloomberg questioned Larry Summers, who wrote in the Washington Post on December 6th, 2015, admitting that economists cannot forecast the next recession.

“While the risk of recession may seem remote given recent growth, it bears emphasizing that since World War II, no postwar recession has been predicted a year in advance by the Fed, the White House or the consensus forecast.”

Babson 1943 Looking Ahead Fifty Years

Roger Babson was not the only analyst to predict the 1929 stock market crash correctly regarding timing. He was the most famous and vocal of them all, while others were predicting a crash starting in 1926 to 1927 and lacked the timing. Famously warned of an “economic hurricane” in September 1929, stating “sooner or later, a crash is coming” at a business conference.

Babson Speech 1929 Top

Roger Babson delivered his famous warning about an impending stock market crash on September 5, 1929, at the Annual National Business Conference in Babson Park, Massachusetts. The all-time high was September 3rd, 1929.

Babson 1943 Looking Ahead Fifty Years

Roger Babson’s 1943 Revised Edition of “Looking Ahead: Fifty Years’ Work” (Harper & Brothers, New York) updated his earlier 1939 predictions to account for World War II. His key forecasts even predicted that the war would end by 1946 when it was still 1943. He also forecast a massive post-war economic boom fueled by pent-up demand, technological advancements from the war, and reconstruction. As a trader, he understood the boom bust cycle that economists try to eliminate. He warned there would be a boom that would lead to over-speculation and a significant bust (“panic” or depression) between 1950-1955, driven by excessive debt and inflation. He said that would then be followed by another period of strong growth.

From the Long-Term perspective, he argued that despite predicting cyclical downturns, he remained fundamentally optimistic about the long-term future (1943-1993). Babson laid out what he saw as unprecedented technological progress and efficiency across industries (manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, and communication). He also forecast a dramatic increase in productivity and standards of living.

Irving Fisher Comments 1929

By far, the most famous forecaster was the Economist Irving Fisher, who forecast with linear analysis that the market had reached an entirely new plateau as if it would NEVER go back down. This is why the economic forecasts have always been wrong because they have ZERO trading experience and do not understand society or market behavior.

Babson Roger Ward Babson July 6 1875 – March 5 1967

Babson was a trader, like me. There is something about trading that is hard to explain. Nobody taught me how to trade, I somehow had a natural inherent instinct for trading. I could look at a chart and know where it would go next. Because I understood that instinctive trait, I could see the reasoning behind people like Babson and Jesse Livermore’s trading decisions.

Cars 2
Cars 3

Most people know I used to race cars in my younger days. Because I got divorced and kept my kids, my mother insisted it was not a good profession to pursue. So I quit to raise my kids. When I went to watch the new F1 Movie, I could see the crash coming and was white-knuckling the chair. If something is in your blood, you can’t get it out. I have a friend who offered to let me drive their F1 just for fun. Those days are gone. Friends laughed at me because I have a bunch of sports cars. I reply, I’m not married. If I were married, there would have to be 12.

The point is, trading is instinctive like racing. You have to pay attention to every car around you. If someone just slightly leans to the left an inch or two, that reveals what he is thinking. I see the same connection in trading where you MUST pay attention to all markets and economies around. You cannot forecast silver, never looking at any other market.

Friedman 1953 Photo

The ONLY academic I ever met who impressed me was Milton Friedman (1912-2006). I was speaking at a trading conference in Chicago. I can’t recall if it was Market Technicians or COPUTRAC.  Milton came to listen to me. When I was finished, he walked up and said it was the best speech he had ever heard and that I was doing what he had just dreamed about. I was a trader – not an economist. Because of that meeting, Milton transformed me into a Reluctant Economist. Milton envisioned a floating exchange rate system in 1953. He saw how a floating exchange rate would impose restraints on the government. He was 30 years ahead of his time—no other academic thought out of the box like Milton.

Law Hohn Money Trade with Photo

When I was shocked when Milton explained that what I was doing was important in economics, Milton pointed out that Keynes did not have a degree in economics. Neither did Adam Smith, David Ricardo, nor every other famous name of the 19th century, since it was just a sideline as part of moral philosophy. Keynes was a mathematician. I believe that was where the economy took a drastic turn. It became all about math formulas detached from understanding cycles or how things worked. Milton was not looking at a raw math formula. He needed to understand what was behind the numbers. It was John Law (1671-1729), who was a trader on the floor of the Amsterdam bourse and laid out the fundamental law of supply and demand by sheer observation.

Paradox of Value Water v Diamonds

The John Law’s Paradox of Value, which I maintained, was later plagiarized and popularized by Adam Smith as the diamond-water paradox. It took a trade to observe this. The paradox became: Why do essential goods like water have low market value, while non-essential luxuries like diamonds command high prices?

John Law first articulated this in his 1705 work Money and Trade Considered, noting:

“Water is of great use, yet of little value; because the quantity of water is much greater than the demand for it. Diamonds are of little use, yet of great value; because the demand for diamonds is much greater than the quantity of them.”

Paley Wm 1785 Moral and Political Philosophy 1st Edition

William Paley (1743–1805) was a Cambridge philosopher/theologian (like Malthus and Keynes himself), so Keynes dubbed him the “first of the Cambridge economists” to trace a local intellectual lineage. Others had considered Malthus the first Cambridge economist. Keynes seemed to prefer Paley, who was a moral philosopher and theologian, best known for Natural Theology (1802).  His Principles of Moral and Political Philosophy (1785) included economic ideas that impressed Keynes:

  • He argued that spending on luxuries could employ the poor, aligning with Keynesian “wasteful spending” as preferable to hoarding.
  • However, Paley was not a systematic economist. His work was ethical, not analytical like Smith’s.
Family Trip 1964

It was Milton who transformed me from just a trader into a Reluctant Economist. I believe all because my father took the family to Europe in 1964 for the whole summer, which introduced me to currency. You had to convert your currency every time you crossed a border, but it taught me that MONEY is a mental yardstick of value. They would give you a quote in the local currency, and I had to convert that in my head to dollars to determine if the value was fair (before pocket calculators and smartphones).

Italian Lira 1974 Franklin Natl Bank

All because I had a client who was a collector, Walter Zengerle, who knew I understood currency. The Bretton Woods fixed rate system collapsed in 1971, and FX futures started trading in 1972. They did not teach currency in school. This was all new. Walter came to me and asked if I would come to New York and look at a problem. He figured out it had to do with currency. Franklin National Bank started Mastercard. It was the first bank to fail because of the floating exchange rate system involving the Italian Lira. After that, every problem with currency turned into getting the guy who did Franklin National Bank.

Friedman Nixon 2

As President Nixon called in Milton Friedman because he was the ONLY one to have contemplated a floating exchange rate system in 1953, nearly 30 years before. What I was observing in how markets traded, and just as in racing, the slightest nudge would indicate what that driver was thinking about, and how you had to watch every driver around you simultaneously, that was what I saw in trading as well. I was forged in the fire of the free markets. There was no place for math formulas or theories. You had to comprehend that you were in an F1 race in the financial system, and there was no room for mistakes or theories.

Reagan in quest of peace

Thus, I was being called in during the 1985 formation of the G5, and just as Milton anticipated, the floating exchange rate system was indeed applying pressure in politics. I was very proud and honored to have been called in by President Reagan. The night of the 1987 Crash, my staff stayed for hours to prepare a special report to get on the president’s desk, so he had a real idea of what would come to pass. They were shocked when I said the low was in place and new highs would be made by 1989. I’m sure they thought I was being too optimistic to get a job. I stated, No charge. That seemed to confuse them even more.

As an old fellow analyst said, most thought I was completely nuts. I had spoken to a famous retail adviser that day and said Look, do not come out and predict a depression – PLEASE!  He said, Come on, Marty. You’ve got to be kidding. He took the Great Depression route.

ECM 1987 Crash

Many people thought that the forecast was not possible. But the very day of the low was precisely the turning point on the ECM to the very day (1987.8 = 292 days – 273 days until the end of September, leaving 19 days). My sources have always been the best because my clients are top-notch. We have the biggest and the smartest clients in the world who are not looking for some pretend guru – just the facts. No matter what country, we all share the same mindset. We all know that we are all connected and see the world as a whole, not pitting one party against another.

Reagan in quest of peace
Gorbatchev_1985_Reagan

I have explained that I knew that the Neocons tried to prevent President Reagan from meeting with Gorbachev. They could not call him a communist, so they just said you can never trust a Russian. In their world, all they want is death and destruction. They cheer that as glory – they win.

US GDP Q 1947 1st Q 2025
EU_GDP Q 5 1 25

I try very hard to beat my own computer. I have never succeeded so far. I am pushing to remove Zelensky. That MUST be the first step toward peace. I fear that NATO and the EU, with the UK, will make for a false flag operation. Economically, they are screwed, and to take any proposal from me to solve this crisis results in them losing their dream of absolute power. They designed the EU to ensure there was no democratic process in which unelected officials cannot be voted out of office.

Ursula and Zelensky

The anti-democratic and Marxist agenda of the EU is collapsing just as Communism collapsed all by itself. This is why they need war, and I fear that the best we can do is postpone it until 2026. Zelensky can be removed, but not Ursula, who has NEVER been elected to anything. Zelensky is wiring out money every month, and that is why he tried to shut down the anti-corruption unit to cover his war crimes. He knows his days are numbered, and he cannot live in Ukraine; he will be assassinated after he no longer has US and UK bodyguards.

Father Martin Armstrong ARMY North Afria

My father taught me well. He handed me Aristotle to read when I was probably 12 or 13. He said if he was good enough to teach Alexander the Great, he was good enough for me. The most valuable lesson my father taught, as he fought with General Patton from North Africa to Berlin, is NEVER judge your enemy by what you think. He will ALWAYS respond according to what he thinks. If you do not understand your enemy, you cannot defeat him.

It is crucial to speak to all sides. If you do not, you will never survive. Marcus Vetter, who shot the Forecaster movie of me, met some of the terrorists while filming the Heart of Jenin movie. He told me the same thing. These people will send some gullible kid to blow themselves up, but would never do that themselves.

Poker Game

Geopolitics = a Poker Game

Would you dare play a hand of poker and never even attempt to see how your opponent plays? If that is your strategy, you will lose. This is what the Neocons preach – never speak to the enemy. Their reasoning is straightforward. They are the aggressor, and they never want peace. But, like the terrorists Marcus encountered, they send other people’s children to die and would never themselves go into battle. I see no difference between them and some terrorist leader – both cowards.

World Economy 1

It is the entire WORLD we must understand – not just domestic rhetoric.

I CANNOT ACCEPT ANY FORMAL POSITION IN ANY GOVERNMENT
I WILL LOSE MY INDEPENDENCE, WHICH IS THE KEY

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    Can Canada Just Nullify Your Property Ownership Under Its Woke Agenda?


    Posted originally on Aug 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

    Zelensky Sending $50 million Per Month to USE Preparing to Flee Ukraine


    Posted originally on Aug 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

    Zelenskyy_had_a_bail_out_plan_using

    I reported over a week ago that Zelensky and his cronies started wiring out $50 million chunks to hidden accounts in the UAE in anticipation that Tru,p will push through a peace deal, and that means Zelensky can no longer prevent elections. Ukraine remains the MOST corrupt country in the world. The only question has been how much was being redirected to the Democrats to defeat Trump and the Neocons.

    Ukraine_Crucifies_Man_Burns_Christian_Icons

    There is NO WAY Zelensky can stay in Ukraine. He will be dragged out in the streets and crucified, as they have been doing to some Russian soldiers, and set on fire. He will flee somewhere, I suspect the UK, where Starmer will protect him at least as long as the Labor Party can retain power against the rising star of Nigel Farage.

    I didn’t expect this story to break so quickly, given the bias of the Western Press who hiss the direct that Zelensky walks on no less than the bottom of his shoes. It is now making headlines around the world. Granted, I had this info nearly a month ago. I’m still impressed that they even published it. I reiterate my recommendation. Zelensky should be arrested for fraud, the Ukrainian people should be allowed to vote and decide their own fate, and the Minsk Agreement should be enforced. This is the ONLY possible way to stop this insanity.

    One reader said the US should join forces with Russia against the EU and NATO, and perhaps then they would back down and reform the economy instead of seeking a diversion. That would be a bold step for mankind. I doubt anyone has that sort of guts.

    They Knew MNRA was a Fraud


    Posted originally on Aug 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

    Why do the most morally debased people seek positions of power?

    We need a mental stability test to hold any position above a Dog Catcher or Toilet Cleaner.

    The Inconsistencies of Neocon Senator Blumenthal


    Posted originally on Aug 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

    Graham Blumenthal Zelensky

    While Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is a ruthless NEOCON whom I have not met, his buddy John McCain, I did meet and felt like I needed a shower after shaking hands. Yet his counterpart on the Democratic side, Blumenthal, I have ZERO respect for. He is either stupid or devious – it’s hard to tell. While Blumenthal ran to support this endless war in Ukraine instigated by the NEOCONS, he dares to claim he wants to remove the immunity for gun manufacturers while supporting the absolute immunity for the makers of COVID vaccines.

    When Russia Was Our Ally Before 1917


    Posted originally on Aug 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

    1863_Harper_s_weekly Russian Ships

    QUESTION: I am a history buff myself. I have never heard that Russia came to the aid of the United States during the Civil War to protect us from the British and the French. What is your source for such a statement?

    FC

    Galbraith Great Crash PNG

    ANSWER: I learned in high school that they do not teach what goes against their agenda. I had to read The Great Crash by Galbraith, which omitted the fact that Europe defaulted on its debt in 1931, including Britain, the Commonwealth, and that included Canada. Galbraith was a socialist who blamed corporations for omitting the actions of the government.

    1931 NYSE Banking Crisis listing shares

    Foreign bonds were sold in small denominations to mom-and-pop investors and were listed on the NYSE. This is a chart of the bond collapse in 1931, just on the NYSE. This was no small minor omission. The stock market tanks the risk. But wipe out the bond market, and that is what causes the depression rather than a recession. It was estimated that the average American investor held as much as $10 billion dollars in foreign bonds in 1929. In today’s dollars, that was close to $200 billion. This is what really wiped out 9,000 banks, and the average person who did not lose on the stock market lost on bonds.

    Mellon Gentlemen Prefer Bonds C

    During the Great Depression, losses in foreign bonds and stocks were both catastrophic, but they differed in timing, scale, and recovery.  Sovereign bond defaults were triggered by trade collapse, currency crises, and the global credit freeze. Of course, there was Andrew Mellon’s famous quote about bonds, which they turned into blonds for the movies.

    The scale of losses on sovereign bonds was staggering – we’re talking 70% average losses on sovereign bonds – not corporate. When a corporation goes bankrupt, assets are sold and creditors are repaid. When a government defaults, you get nothing. Germany and Latin America were disasters. The UK/Canada eventually honored their debts but defaulted in gold.

    Canada did not technically default legally on its sovereign debt on October 19th, 1931. Still, it did suspend gold payments on its external debt obligations following the UK’s abandonment of the gold standard on September 21, 1931, due to the Great Depression. Now, here is the kicker. After a long period of negotiation and economic adjustment, Canada finally resumed payments on its external debts. However, they really defaulted. On May 1, 1933, Canada resumed service on its external debts, but in Canadian dollars rather than in gold or foreign currency. They followed Roosevelt’s lead. In March 1933, that is when the banking crisis peaked. Roosevelt declared the bank holiday on March 6th. Then, on April 5, 1933, with Executive Order 6102. That is when he confiscated private gold, and on April 20th, 1933, he formally suspended the gold standard. Canada saw that and did the same, defaulting on the promise to repay in gold and swapped it to the Canadian dollar only.

    I stumbled upon Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs in an antique book store in London. It opened my eyes to the fact that they selectively teach propaganda. They were teaching Socialism and Keynesian Economics, the business cycle was not definitive, so the government can manipulate us as they desire. After that experience, my study has never even been TRUST BUT VERIFY; it was converted to QUESTION EVERYTHING AND THEN VERIFY.

    Harper_s_weekly Oct 17 1863

    This is the issue of Harper’s Weekly from October 17th, 1863. I have verified this account that Russia protected the Union forces of the United States against the British and French, who claimed to be neutral, but covertly were supporting the Confederates.

    1864 Napoleon III

    Emperor personally favored the Confederacy, hoping to secure Southern cotton for French textile mills and establish a French-aligned buffer state to protect his imperial ambitions in Mexico. France refused to recognize the Confederacy without British cooperation, which never materialized. Napoleon III did propose a joint mediation with Britain and Russia in 1862, including a six-month armistice and opening Southern ports. The Union angrily rejected this, viewing it as pro-Confederate interference by the French.

    Like the EU pretending not to be involved in the Ukraine war, France was allowing the Confederacy to purchase weapons and warships. The French ministers did object to Napoleon III and went as far as the French government initially blocked the ironclad CSS Stonewall. By the time it made it to America, the war was over. Napoleon’s Mexican campaign (1861–1867) was aimed at exploiting the U.S. division by installing Maximilian I as emperor. Confederate independence would have shielded this venture from Union retaliation.

    Britain declared neutrality in May 1861. It did recognize the Confederacy as a separate belligerent, granting it the right to contract loans and use blockades, but did not recognize it as a sovereign nation. This angered the Union. Aristocrats and conservative elites such as Chancellor William Gladstone did sympathize with the Confederacy, seeing parallels with Southern plantation society and even old scores for the American Revolution.

    Working-class Britons, particularly in textile regions, largely opposed slavery despite economic hardship from the “cotton famine.” Lincoln praised Lancashire workers for refusing Confederate cotton, which was on religious grounds.

    British private firms smuggled arms, luxuries, and supplies into Southern ports in exchange for cotton and tobacco. Then there was the warship construction carried out in the British shipyards. They constructed the CSS Alabama, leading to the post-war Alabama Claims, where Britain paid the US $15.5 million for damages for that action.

    Then there was the Trent Affair of 1861. That was a near-war crisis that erupted when the U.S. Navy seized Confederate diplomats from a British ship. Britain demanded their release, and Lincoln complied to avoid war.

    By 1863, France and Britain found alternative cotton sources (e.g., India, Egypt). However, the Union threatened war if Europe recognized the Confederacy. That even put Canada and the Caribbean colonies all at risk. Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation (1863) solidified moral opposition to the Confederacy. That followed Tsar Alexander II, who freed the Russian serfs through the Emancipation Manifesto, signed on  March 3, 1861, and was publicly announced on March 5, 1861. President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863, declaring, “that all persons held as slaves” within the rebellious areas “are, and henceforward shall be free.”  The fact that Russia took that action first was what led to pressure on Lincoln for the Emancipation Proclamation, as well as the start of the war, which took place about one month later on April 12, 1861.

    Post-War Repercussions were profound. The U.S. forced France to withdraw from Mexico (1867), leading to Maximilian’s execution. Britain paid reparations for warship damage.

    Napoleon1812 Russia

    Our enemies were really Britain and France during the early 19th century. Of course, there were the Napoleonic Wars, and Napoleon even attempted to invade Russia. Clearly, France and Russia were direct enemies (e.g., Napoleon’s disastrous invasion of Russia in 1812). Then you had the never-ending Britain vs. France, who to this day still harbor resentment for being each other’s primary enemy throughout the wars.

    Leaders_FDR Churchill Stalin

    Britain & Russia were allies against Napoleonic France as part of the coalitions. That was no different from Stalin joining the Allies against Germany.

    Nonetheless, the Post-Napoleonic Era & The Holy Alliance (Post-1815) saw Russia’s role under Tsar Alexander I, became the dominant conservative power in Europe, leading the Holy Alliance (with Austria and Prussia) to suppress liberal revolutions. Britain’s stance under Castlereagh and later Canning distanced itself from the Holy Alliance’s interventionist policies. While not directly fighting Russia, Britain often diplomatically opposed Russia’s attempts to dominate European politics and suppress revolutions, seeing it as a threat to the balance of power and British interests. It was a quasi-proxy war again.

    Then there was the Eastern Question & The Crimean War (1853-1856). That core conflict remains the most significant example of direct Anglo-French opposition to Russia. What is often overlooked is that although the “official” position of the US in the Crimean War was neutral, the United States supported Russia during the 1863 Crimean War, allowing some 30 American surgeons to “volunteer” to serve in the Russian military. Russia lost that war to the alliance of Britain, France, and the Ottoman Empire. Then Russia faced yet another challenge a few years later. In 1863, there was an uprising in the regions of the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth under Russian domination. That became a guerrilla war against Russia, and they responded by crushing the rebellion and even punishing the nobility by confiscating their lands. The immediate outcome of the 1863 was a devastating military defeat, followed by ruthless repression, the complete elimination of any vestige of autonomy, and the onset of an intense and systematic decades-long campaign of hating Russians thereafter. This was no doubt a residual from the century before, when Sweden made its most significant attempt to invade Russia during the Great Northern War (1700-1721), specifically in the years 1707-1709.

    The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was a major theater of war for much of the conflict. Swedish King Charles XII invaded and spent years campaigning there. Charles XII forced the Polish nobility to depose their elected king, Augustus II (Elector of Saxony), and install a Swedish puppet, Stanisław Leszczyński (1704). Russia responded, seeking to expand its influence at the expense of the declining Ottoman Empire, particularly aiming for control over the Black Sea straits and protection of Orthodox Christians in Ottoman territories who were being persecuted.

    Anglo-French formed a stiff opposition to Russia for its wealth. Britain feared Russian expansion would threaten its Mediterranean routes (especially to India) and the European balance of power. France, under Napoleon III, sought to revive French prestige, protect Catholic interests in the Ottoman Empire (countering Russia’s Orthodox claims), and challenge Russian power. Thus, Britain and France formed a military alliance with the Ottoman Empire and fought a major war against Russia in the Crimea. The war ended with a Russian defeat.

    All of this produced a prolonged strategic rivalry and espionage contest centered on Central Asia and South Asia (Afghanistan, Persia, Tibet). Britain was obsessed with protecting its “jewel in the crown,” India, from any perceived Russian threat of invasion or influence. While it rarely resulted in direct war between the two empires, it involved intense diplomatic maneuvering, proxy conflicts, and military expeditions. France was not a major player in this specific rivalry.

    The Franco-Russian rapprochement came after Germany’s defeat of France in 1871 and the subsequent formation of the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy). France at that time actively sought an ally against the German threat. This led to the Franco-Russian Alliance (1894), a fundamental shift aligning France and Russia against the German-led bloc. As you can see, this was like a bunch of cross-dressers switching sides.

    Anglo-Russian tensions continued, keeping Anglo-Russian relations in opposition. However, facing the rising power of Germany, Britain also began to realize that the wealth of Russia might be set aside, given the increasing threat from Germany. This eventually led to the Anglo-Russian Entente (1907), settling colonial disputes in Central Asia and aligning Britain with France and Russia in the Triple Entente against the Triple Alliance.

    Consequently, Britain and France were absolutely opposed to Russia at many key points and only tolerated the Russians when they needed help against Germany. Britain maintained a deep strategic rivalry with Russia throughout the century due to concerns over India and Asia. Meanwhile, Britain often diplomatically opposed Russia’s conservative dominance in Europe early in the century. The balance of power shifted dramatically in the last decade of the 19th century. The rise of Germany drove former rivals France and Russia into a formal alliance (1894), and Britain later joined them in the Triple Entente (1907), setting the stage for World War I.

    As you can see, there were periods of cooperation early against Napoleon between Britain and Russia. Still, a complete reversal of alliances unfolded when the glimmer of Russia’s wealth caught their eye, and they did not need their support.

    Lenin Valdimir Returns to Russia

    By 1917, Germany faced a two-front war against the Allies. They decided that if they could orchestrate a Russian withdrawal, it would allow Germany to concentrate forces on the Western Front. German officials viewed Lenin as a “plague bacillus” to infect Russia from within, aiming to trigger internal collapse and end Russia’s war participation. The idea was hatched by the German Foreign Secretary Richard von Kühlmann and General Erich Ludendorff. Alexander Parvus (a Russian-German businessman and former socialist) proposed the scheme to the German Foreign Office, drafting a 23-page revolutionary roadmap and securing initial funding of 2 million marks for Bolshevik propaganda.

    On April 9th, 1917, Lenin and 31 revolutionaries departed Zurich on a German-chartered train. The group crossed Germany in a “sealed” carriage with extraterritorial status (marked by chalk lines), avoiding passport checks. Non-Bolsheviks were included to pretend there was no intentional German collaboration or plot to create the Russian Revolution. The German High Command prioritized the train, even delaying Crown Prince Wilhelm’s transport. Officers escorted the group to the Baltic Sea, from where they proceeded via Sweden and Finland. The trip concluded at Petrograd’s Finland Station on April 16th, 1917.

    1914 William II AU 20 Mark

    Germany funneled over 50 million marks to the Bolsheviks from 1917 to 1918 to fund the revolution (2.5 million 20-mark gold coins at 1/4 ounce of gold; about $2.125 billion today). This financed Pravda (Bolshevik newspaper), arms smuggling, and propaganda to undermine the Russian Provisional Government. Acting as a middleman, Parvus facilitated German funds and border logistics (e.g., bribing Finnish guards). Lenin, distrusting Parvus, later excluded him from Soviet politics. In the end, it was Germany that funded the Russian Communist Revolution to keep them out of the war.

    Seward William Henry

    The United States purchased Alaska from Russia in 1867. The treaty was signed on March 30th, 1867. It was officially transferred on October 18th, 1867, for  $7.2 million (about 2 cents per acre). Russia was struggling to maintain its distant colony after the costly Crimean War (1853–1856). There was also the fear that the British would just seize the territory, adding it to Canada. Selling to the U.S. was preferable.

    At the time, their main commerce was the fur trade, which had declined, and Russia saw little potential for future development. Secretary of State William H. Seward believed in Manifest Destiny, meaning that the U.S. must expand its territory across North America to counter the British. Securing the Pacific Northwest and gaining a foothold near Asia for trade/military influence was a key point that Seward maintained. He did suspect riches in fish, timber, fur, and minerals. Gold was eventually discovered, but not until the 1890s. The main strategy was to prevent British dominance in the region.

    Sewards Icebox

    Steward was mocked. They called it “Seward’s Folly” or “Seward’s Icebox,” with critics calling Alaska a worthless frozen wasteland. That perception did not change until after gold was discovered in the 1890s, followed by oil discoveries proving it was of immense value compared to the Louisiana Purchase. Eventually, Alaska became a U.S. territory in 1912 and the 49th state in 1959. This was another act where the United States helped Russia in our warm relations against the European powers pre-1917.

    US Russia vs Britain France

    While the US and Russia were actually strategic partners with significant cooperation and friendship (most notably during the American Civil War and the sale of Alaska), and became cobelligerents in WWI for a brief period in 1917 after the Tsar was overthrown, they were never formal allies bound by a mutual defense treaty before the 1917 Revolutions. Their relationship was characterized by positive diplomacy, mutual interests at key junctures, and the absence of major conflict, but not a committed alliance. The deep ideological divide and differing geopolitical priorities prevented a formal alliance structure.

    Our Neocons hate Russians as a people simply because the Germans funded the Revolution, and the Russian people have been the victims. Naturally, the polls in Russia show that only the elderly miss the Communist days when the state just took care of them and they did not have to make any decisions. Among the 60+ generation, approximately 58% of Russians regret the collapse of the Soviet Union, with many indicating a preference for the economic stability and social security associated with that period. The younger generations (18-24) are less likely to express a desire to return to communism, with polls coming in at most 20%. Our Neocons are generally 70+ in age. Like the older Russians, they too have refused to accept that anything has changed. This is the generation pushing us toward World War III simply because they hated communists, who no longer exist.