Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Poland is deploying about 40,000 soldiers on the borders with Belarus and Russia amid rising tensions after the Russian drone attack on September 10. Still, there are rumours that they have captured Russian drones and have deployed them to instigate a false flag. We cannot verify this rumour, but it is getting traction.
Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The parliamentary elections in Poland were held on Sunday, October 15, 2023. The election was a decisive victory for the opposition parties, who together won a majority of seats in the parliament. This resulted in a significant shift in Polish politics.
Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Multiple Russian drones were reportedly shot down in Polish airspace earlier this week, and now, the Polish government is urging NATO to respond. The violation of Polish airspace marked the first time that a NATO member directly engaged in combat with Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland has never been closer to enter a conflict since World War II. Polish President Karol Nawrocki believes that Russia is testing its limits. The government has called on NATO allies to invoke Article 4: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”
Not to be confused with Article 5, Article 4 is merely an agreement to discuss the security of a member nation. “The Russian provocation was nothing more than an attempt to test our capabilities and response. It was an attempt to check the mechanism of operation within NATO and our ability to react,” President Nawrocki commented.
Russia believes that the drone spotting was a false flag, and a “myths repeatedly spread by Poland in order to escalate the Ukrainian crisis further.” US President Trump questioned Russia’s actions on social media. Secretary General Mark Rutte affirmed that “allies expressed solidarity with Poland and denounced Russia’s reckless behavior.”
Article 4 is often the prelude to Article 5. It is the emergency meeting that takes place ahead of action. Poland has deployed 40,000 troops to its border with Belarus, where the drones were shot down. Russia and Belarus have planned to execute a joint military exercise named Zapad 2025 that will involve tens of thousands of troops.
“Poland has been preparing for the Zapad 2025 maneuvers for many months,” Cezary Tomczyk, a deputy defense minister, told broadcaster Polsat News. “The Polish Army has conducted exercises in which over 30,000 Polish soldiers, as well as soldiers of the [NATO] alliance, took part in order to adequately respond,” he said. “Let’s remember that Zapad 2025 is an offensive exercise.”
Was it a false flag? Belarus claims it provided Poland with advance notice that drones would enter its airspace. “The Belarusians warned us that drones were heading towards us through their airspace,” General Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, said. “It was surprising to me that Belarus, which is really trying to escalate the situation on our land border, decided to cooperate in this way.”
Belarus’ Chief of the General Staff, Pavel Muraveiko also claims that the drones veered off course and unintendedly entered Poland. “As the Russian Federation and Ukraine exchanged blows using unmanned aerial vehicles this night, duty forces and assets of the air defense system of the Republic of Belarus constantly monitored the unmanned aerial vehicles that veered off course due to electronic jamming from both sides,” Muraveiko said.
Drones should not have entered Polish airspace. The incident does appear accidental, as Belarus notified Poland in advance; however, sending unmanned weapons into a NATO nation is asking for trouble and a miscalculation that neither Russia nor Belarus can afford, with the neocons in NATO eagerly awaiting a reason to ignite World War III.
Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Consumer prices are up 2.9% in August on an annual basis after rising 2.7% in July. CPI doubled from July’s reading at 0.4%, with inflation now sitting at 2.9%. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 3.1% YoY.
Food prices are 3.2% higher this year, rising 0.5% from July 2025. Food at home rose 3.2% YoY (0.6% MoM), while food away from home rose 3.3% YoY (0.3% MoM). Vegetable prices rose 1.6% from the month prior. Meats, fish, poultry, and eggs rose 1% in August, with beef prices continuing to rise at 2.7%. Dairy products increased slightly by 0.1% and nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.6%.
There was an uptick in the price of medical care services with a 4.2% annual increase. The medical care index overall decreased by 0.7%.
Shelter costs spiked 3.6% in the past year as well, with household goods and furnishings rising 3.9%.
The tariff price adjustment can be felt in the auto sector as prices are up across the board. Even used cars have increased 6% in price from August 2024, and motor vehicle insurance is up 4.7% over the same timeframe. Transportation services in general rose 3.5%. Airline fares are up 5.9% on a monthly basis after rising 4% in July.
The energy index rose 0.2% over the past 12 months, although there seems to be a bit of reprieve on gas (down 6.6% YoY), and general energy commodities (-6.2% YoY). The cost of electricity spiked 6.2% in the past 12 months, energy services rose 7.7%, and utilities are up an alarming 13.8%.
Inflation continues to rise faster than wages, with the average urban wage earner seeing a 2.8% annual increase in pay. The Labor Department noted in a separate report that weekly unemployment reached 263,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, with 27,000 additional job losses from the prior period.
Prices are up, employment is down, and overall GDP is declining. The mainstream analysts are finally recognizing that we are in a period of stagflation.
Our computer is demonstrating that volatility in unemployment will rise from 2026, peaking first in 2028 with a Panic Cycle in 2029. This also confirms our War Cycles for 2026. What we MUST come to grips with is that there is far more to understanding the economy from a single statistic perspective. However, we are also undergoing two significant factors that the classic economic models fail to incorporate, aside from the fact that 99% of the rhetoric and the economic models overlook the leverage in the banking system that creates money outside of the Federal Reserve through lending.
Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Political activist Charlie Kirk was murdered while speaking at Utah Valley University. Kirk, 31, leaves behind a wife and two small children. Violence against conservatives must come to an end.
Democrats have been encouraging violence against their political opponents and their supporters. The world watched the gruesome death of Iryna Zarutska, whose killer was let out on cashless bail with no fewer than 14 arrests, as there are two tiers of justice in the US. There was an attempt on the president’s life during his campaign as his opponents repeatedly called for violence against Donald Trump and anyone who supported him. Trump and Vance released a list of the dangerous, ongoing rhetoric promoted by the left and legacy media during his campaign. Conservatives have become a hated class.
Charlie Kirk's wife posted this two weeks ago on Instagram.
“Trump parrots Hitler,” Joe Biden stated in December 2023, later adding that MAGA conservatives were the “largest threat to democracy.” Hillary Clinton called conservatives a “basket of deplorables” and suggested imprisoning conservative voices for spreading propaganda. “Adolf Hitler was elected chancellor of Germany. He worked to discredit institutions to the point where people believed it … This is the same type of propaganda we heard in the 1920s and during World War I against Jews,” Rep. James Clyburn stated in 2019.
“You could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic—you name it. … He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people. Now how many millions?” Hillary Clinton stated in 2016.
Leftist rhetoric over the years determined that Donald Trump is Adolf Hitler and his supporters are hateful Nazis. America’s dictator is dismantling democracy and replacing it with fascism, only beholden to the billionaire class. Conservatives are intolerant racists who hate the gay community and want to ban same-sex unions. The right hates women as a whole, although women only exist as a concept, as they aim to turn America into Margaret Atwood’s “Handmaid’s Tale.” MAGA conservatives are deliberately removing rights from the American people.
Millions of people believe the rhetoric played on a loop across every media platform. Divisive politics has caused a near civil war in America. The left has been encouraged and permitted to act out violently in support of their causes from the George Floyd Black Lives Matter riots that burned down cities to the calls to burn down Tesla cars over ties to Elon Musk. These people believe they are on “the right side of history” and freeing imaginary prisoners from future concentration camps by attacking conservatives.
Freedom of speech is also a concept. It is dangerous to voice conservative viewpoints. Conservatives genuinely fear retribution for voicing their opinions with good reason. Charlie Kirk bravely represented conservative beliefs, co-founding Turning Point when he was 18. He visited college campuses to engage in thought-provoking dialogue and political discourse. Agree to disagree.
“When someone takes the life of a person because of ideas or ideals, that very foundation is threatened. We need to stop hating our fellow Americans… I say unite us as a country,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox stated.
Before he was declared dead, the mainstream media suggested that one of his supporters could have fired the shot into the crowd. Democrats like AOC used his death to promote repealing the Second Amendment, urging gun control. The US House of Representatives proved that they are unwilling to end the violence. During a moment of silence for Charlie Kirk, neither Republicans nor Democrats could contain their anger and erupted into a shouting match.
Washington has ordered flags to be flown at half-mast. The violence must be condemned, but unfortunately, the computer model has not been optimistic about the unity of the United States of America. Tensions will continue to rise as the division has reached a point of no return.
Posted originally on CTH on September 12, 2025 | Sundance
A remarkable set of circumstances unfolding as internet sleuths and researchers focus on the FBI information about the suspect in the Charlie Kirk assassination.
Given the detailed pictures, videos and descriptions of the suspected shooter, people are now scouring the Utah social media networks and identifying people who fit the visual profile.
It should be noted the Utah DPS is asking people not to make presumptions as the investigation continues. However, several people are pointing to a previous leftist LGBTQ+ advocate angrily who debated Charlie Kirk and holds a remarkable similarity to the suspect. WATCH @1:03 prompted:
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Attitude, location, physical attributes and ideological motive seem to align with suspect profile.
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