Buckets of Awesome: Secretary T-Rex Rides With Rolling Thunder (video)…

OK, this is just buckets of all American awesome.   Secretary of State Rex Tillerson rides with Rolling Thunder in Washington DC to celebrate Memorial Day and salute our armed forces.

We knew T-Rex was awesome, but who knew T-Rex was Rolling Thunder level awesome?


Compare and Contrast:

President Trump Secretary of State

President Obama Secretary of State

Any Questions?

President Trump is Right To Call Out NATO Countries – U.S. Paying 76 Percent of Total NATO Spending…

President Trump’s political opposition, including Most Swamp Media (MSM), have claimed he went too far in calling out NATO members for their lack of funding their own military and security apparatus.

During President Trump’s latest trip to NATO he stated publicly they needed to improve and do it quickly.  The media expressed a position that President Trump was too direct; however, what the media never shows is how far out of balance the entire financial system is for NATO.

The members of NATO agreed to spend at least 2% of their GDP on their own internal defense and security.   Most people are probably familiar with a graphic such as below which appears on CNN website explaining the dynamic:

However, what is rarely added to the discussion is the scope of the U.S. GDP in comparison to other nation states.  For us to spend 3.61% of our massive GDP ($18.5 Trillion) is actually $670,344,000,000  That represents 76.11% of the entire NATO budget.

In the graphic below I’ve added the GDP and extended the math to show how much the United States actually pays in whole dollars in comparison to the top 10 NATO member nations:

The US is providing $670,344,000,000  – That’s 76.11% of the entire NATO spending on military.

When you extend the amounts out you can see the fuller story of how big the disparity is between the entire NATO budget and who is contributing.

Greece, Estonia, the U.K, and Poland are the only nations meeting their promise to spend at least 2% of their GDP on the “collective defense”.

It is ridiculous in the extreme for the United States to be paying 76 percent of the total amount spent on NATO collective defense.

President Trump is right to call them out publicly.   Heck, he should go further.  I would suggest reducing our own contribution until ALL nations catch up.

Nice new fancy NATO building you got there Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg!

Caviar Socialists love to spend money that’s not theirs.  Boy does this video make more sense against the backdrop of how much our military is carrying for them:

Is May 3rd Comey Testimony the Smoking Gun?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I respect your legal reasoning. A friend of mine is a lawyer and he said you are pretty sharp. So I pose this question. People are claiming that James Comey’s testimony on May 3, 2017 is the smoking gun that proves Trump did not ask him to stop the investigation into Russia. What is your take on this?

ANSWER: Those unfamiliar with the way law works can make up that conclusion. However, Comey did not say that at all. He was asked did the Department of Justice (DOJ) ask him to kill the investigation, to which he replied no! The question was not about Trump personally. This is like someone asking your wife if you robbed a store and she said no way. You did not answer. Your wife did. So this is “opinion” only unless she says that “you said you did not.” That makes it hearsay.

Now pay attention. Comey expressly states that from time to time they DOJ offers its “opinion” but it has never “ordered” it to stop an investigation “for political purposes.”

Now, this testimony does not prove anything with respect to Trump personally. However, Comey’s “memo” has been only released verbally to the New York Times. Nobody has even seen this memo including Congress.  Therefore, this “memo” is “alleged” and Comey when asked who has this memo him or the DOJ, he declined to answer.

Now, focus on what he testified that the DOJ has expressed its “opinion”, but never “ordered” the FBI to stop an investigation for “political” purposes. If we take the memo at face value as-is, then assuming Trump said anything, it was only his “opinion” and did not obstruct justice by ordering the FBI to stop its investigation. This would NOT be an impeachable offense.

Now it will turn on did Trump fire Comey to stop the investigation? The next question is, did firing Comey prevent a further investigation? If the answer is NO, then once again there is no impeachable offense.

However, I am preparing a special report on the history of impeachment and why Trump can be impeached, which may start a civil war, but it would by no means be legal.


Warped Priorities – British Taxpayers Paid Manchester Terrorist to Kill Their Children…

While it doesn’t come as a significant surprise the latest development in the Manchester bombing shows the financiers for the terrorist attack were U.K. taxpayers.

Yes, the British people actually paid Salman Abedi to kill themselves and their children:

Telegraph –  Salman Abedi is understood to have received thousands of pounds in state funding in the run up to Monday’s atrocity even while he was overseas receiving bomb-making training.

Police are investigating Abedi’s finances, including how he paid for frequent trips to Libya where he is thought to have been taught to make bombs at a jihadist training camp.

[…] One former detective said jihadists were enrolling on university courses to collect the student loans “often with no intention of turning up”.

Abedi was given at least £7,000 from the taxpayer-funded Student Loans Company after beginning a business administration degree at Salford University in October 2015.

It is thought he received a further £7,000 in the 2016 academic year even though by then he had already dropped out of the course. Salford University declined to say if it had informed the Student Loans Company that Abedi’s funding should have been stopped.

[…]  Abedi, 22, never held down a job, according to neighbours and friends, but was able to travel regularly between the UK and Libya. […]  Six weeks before the bombing Abedi rented a second property in a block of flats in Blackley eight miles from his home, paying £700 in cash.

He had enough money to rent a third property in the centre of Manchester from where he set off with a backpack containing the bomb.

Abedi also withdrew £250 in cash three days before the attack and transferred £2,500 to his younger brother Hashim in Libya, who is accused of knowing about the attack in advance.  (read more)

Reuters/Washington Post Publish Evidence of Obama Spying on Trump Campaign and Unmasking Americans…

Reuters/Washington Post Puts a Slice of Kushner Cheese on Russian Nothingburger and simultaneously prove the Obama Administration was spying on the Trump campaign.

The extent of the U.S. media’s straw-grasping is boundless, but this one is going to backfire. HOPEFULLY.  For the most recent example consider the Washington Post and Reuters claiming President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner participating in a proposal to set up a back-channel with Russia for communication after the November 8th election.

Firstly, Reuters and The Washington Post are idiots in their claimed “exclusive” bombast, etc.  UPI reported on the nothingburger back-channel Russian construct on April 3rd.  This “breaking” news is old news, and old nothingburger news at that.

Of course President-elect Trump’s staff would consider a back-channel set up for communications with Russian government officials in November and December 2016, just about everyone with a tinge of common sense was saying that exact construct was needed.


Well, you must remember the atmosphere after the November 8th election during the time period being discussed.  President Obama, in close coordination with his U.S. media allies, was filling the airwaves with toxic anti-Russian narratives in an explicit attempt to make any structural positive relationship between the pending Trump administration and Russia impossible.

[ALSO – Insert your memory card for CIA Director John Brennan’s recent timeline of his Russian contacts as related to congress here]  Watch from 10:30 to around 15:00 (prompted):


Eventually, to give some optical reasoning for the conspiracy theme, this entire fiasco known as the ‘muh Russian conspiracy’ led to President Obama sanctioning Russia and kicking 35 Russian diplomats out of the U.S.    Though in the past five months not a single shred of evidence showing what Russia ever did to “interfere in the election” has ever surfaced.

Allow me to provide an example:  If you’ve ever heard the term “Russia hacked the election“, ask yourself (or others): what exactly did Russia hack?…  {{{crickets}}}  The assertion is a catch-phrase soundbite, albeit a ridiculously silly one at that.

Even within John Brennan’s most recent testimony to congress, he couldn’t outline a single relevant example of factual interference; he only explained “possibilities” and various “scenarios of concern” the intelligence community were certain existed, but the certainty only goes as far as their concern – not the factual evidence.  The intelligence community was most certainly concerned.

To provide cover for the December 29th Russian Sanctions (which was actually a necessary narrative construct by President Obama), the intelligence community published a Joint Analysis Report put together by the CIA (Brennan), ODNI (Clapper), FBI (Comey) and NSA (Mike Rogers) –Reminder HERE

The report noted the NSA (Rogers) did not have the same degree of confidence in the content as Brennan, Clapper and Comey.  Notice, not coincidentally, that Brennan, Clapper and Comey are gone and Mike Rogers is still running the NSA.

The Joint Analysis Report was widely rebuked by almost everyone who looked at it.  Again, remember the conclusion of the report was that RT (Russian TV) was promoting propaganda, and there were Russian profile social media accounts pushing anti-Clinton memes on the internet.    THAT’S IT.  Reminder:


The “Russian Malicious Cyber Activity – Joint Analysis Report” (full pdf below) is pure nonsense.  It outlines nothing more than vague and disingenuous typical hacking activity that is no more substantive than any other hacking report on any other foreign actor.

This might as well be a report blaming Nigerian fraud phone solicitors for targeting U.S. phone numbers.  DUH!  Just because your grandma didn’t actually win that Nigerian national lottery doesn’t mean the Nigerian Mafioso are targeting your employer to hold you accountable for her portion of the bill.

This FBI report is, well, quite simply, pure horse-pucky.

However, what the report does well is using ridiculous technical terminology to describe innocuous common activity.   Example: “ATPT29” is Olaf, the round faced chubby guy probably working from his kitchen table; and “ATPT28” is his unemployed socially isolated buddy living in Mom’s basement down the street.

This paragraph is priceless in it’s humorous and disengenuous gobblespeak:

Both groups have historically targeted government organizations, think tanks, universities, and corporations around the world. APT29 has been observed crafting targeted spearphishing campaigns leveraging web links to a malicious dropper; once executed, the code delivers Remote Access Tools (RATs) and evades detection using a range of techniques.

APT28 is known for leveraging domains that closely mimic those of targeted organizations and tricking potential victims into entering legitimate credentials. APT28 actors relied heavily on shortened URLs in their spearphishing email campaigns. Once APT28 and APT29 have access to victims, both groups exfiltrate and analyze information to gain intelligence value.

These groups use this information to craft highly targeted spearphishing campaigns. These actors set up operational infrastructure to obfuscate their source infrastructure, host domains and malware for targeting organizations, establish command and control nodes, and harvest credentials and other valuable information from their targets.

(*note the emphasis I placed in the quote) All that nonsense is saying is a general explanation for how hacking, any hacking, is generally carried out.  This entire FBI report is nothing more than a generalized, albeit techno-worded, explanation for how Nigerians, Indians, or in this case Russians, attempt to gain your email passwords etc., nothing more.  (read report)

Again, for emphasis: That’s the source evidence of the JAR for the “vast Russian conspiracy”: Russian TV news and social media bots pushing frog memes interfered with the 2016 U.S. election resultThat’s their conclusion.

Yes, that’s the entire final analysis within the report that led to the expulsion of 35 Russian unimportant nobody diplomats – all created to push a narrative, and only created to push a narrative.  The goal of the narrative was to undermine the election results and paint the upcoming Trump administration into a corner as it related to Russia and Vladimir Putin.

That’s the backdrop for the earlier April UPI story (link here) and that’s the environment created by President Obama where the Trump Transition team was considering a back-channel way to talk to the Russians without all of the Obama-Manufactured-Anxiety causing friction.

And here is today’s slice of Kushner Cheese for the Nothingburger.  NOTE THE DISCLAIMER customarily pushed way down into the weeds of the article:

REUTERS – […] After the Nov. 8 election, Kushner and Flynn also discussed with Kislyak the idea of creating a back channel between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that could have bypassed diplomats and intelligence agencies, two of the sources said. Reuters was unable to determine how those discussions were conducted or exactly when they took place.

Reuters was first to report last week that a proposal for a back channel was discussed between Flynn and Kislyak as Trump prepared to take office. The Washington Post was first to report on Friday that Kushner participated in that conversation.

[…] FBI scrutiny of Kushner began when intelligence reports of Flynn’s contacts with Russians included mentions of U.S. citizens, whose names were redacted because of U.S. privacy laws. This prompted [FBI/Comey] investigators to ask U.S. intelligence agencies to reveal the names of the Americans, the current U.S. law enforcement official said.

Kushner’s was one of the names that was revealed, the official said, prompting a closer look at the president’s son-in-law’s dealings with Kislyak and other Russians.

FBI investigators are examining whether Russians suggested to Kushner or other Trump aides that relaxing economic sanctions would allow Russian banks to offer financing to people with ties to Trump, said the current U.S. law enforcement official.

The head of Russian state-owned Vnesheconombank, Sergei Nikolaevich Gorkov, a trained intelligence officer whom Putin appointed, met Kushner at Trump Tower in December. The bank is under U.S. sanctions and was implicated in a 2015 espionage case in which one of its New York executives pleaded guilty to spying and was jailed.

The bank said in a statement in March that it had met with Kushner along with other representatives of U.S. banks and business as part of preparing a new corporate strategy.

Officials familiar with intelligence on contacts between the Russians and Trump advisers said that so far they have not seen evidence of any wrongdoing or collusion between the Trump camp and the Kremlin.  Moreover, they said, nothing found so far indicates that Trump authorized, or was even aware of, the contacts.

There may not have been anything improper about the contacts, the current law enforcement official stressed(link)

Pay attention to this part: “[…] FBI scrutiny of Kushner began when intelligence reports of Flynn’s contacts with Russians included mentions of U.S. citizens, whose names were redacted because of U.S. privacy laws. This prompted [FBI/Comey] investigators to ask U.S. intelligence agencies to reveal the names of the Americans, the current U.S. law enforcement official said.

Reflect back on CIA Director John Brennan’s testimony to congress and reread that paragraph broken into two parts and combined with the Brennan testimony:

….FBI scrutiny of Kushner began when intelligence reports of Flynn’s contacts with Russians included mentions of U.S. citizens, whose names were redacted because of U.S. privacy laws….

That’s exactly what Director Brennan said happened.  The CIA intercepted the communications around the Russian officials attempting to gain access to the Trump circle because no-one in the Russian government knew anything about Trump’s positions.

…This prompted [FBI/Comey] investigators to ask U.S. intelligence agencies to reveal the names of the Americans, the current U.S. law enforcement official said…

That is also what Brennan said.  Brennan said he gave the raw intelligence to the FBI (James Comey) and to the White House (Susan Rice) and it was then out of his hands.  The FBI (Comey) then asked the NSA (Rogers) to reveal the names.  Brennan then briefed the gang-of-eight in congress.

Additionally, if Jared Kushner -as the WaPo claims- discussed setting up a “secret channel” of communication with Kysliak in December 2016 then common sense would tell you they didn’t have one prior to the election on Nov 8th. {{poof}} …there goes the ‘vast Russian conspiracy.

Aside from proving the Obama administration was specifically using James Comey to spy on the Trump campaign – So what if team Trump, or Candidate Trump, or President-Elect Trump, wanted a way to talk privately with representatives of the Russian government?  That’s politics.  That’s the same for every country, not just exclusive to Russia.

If anything the fact that President Obama’s political intelligence gathering operatives were spying on the Trump campaign to identify such communication, and then unmasking them to the political opposition, is evidence of the need for such communication channels….

What this Reuters and Washington Post story actually does is prove the Obama Administration was spying on the Trump campaign.  That’s the explosive angle to the story.

It’s not the nothingburger report that Jared or anyone else was trying to set up communication lines that matters – the real story is Reuters and the Washington Post proving that Obama was spying on conversations about setting up those lines of communication.

*”Когда луна попадает в глаза, как большой пирог с пиццей”…

(*When the moon hits your eye like a big pizza pie that’s Amore’)

Schiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE) – Real or Mislead?

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

Long time… perhaps you can reflect on the indicator of the Shiller CAPE ratio?
Not that it is a predictive sell/buy signal in itself, but it is an indicator showing history

ANSWER: The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio known as CAPE,  is a particular PE ratio invented by Robert Shiller of Yale University. Unlike his index on real estate, this one tracking the period of 1870 to date is not very good. True, on will arrive at one of two conclusions that either the CAPE today is near the same level as in 1929, or it is higher today than it was just before the Panic of 2008. Does this really mean anything? Absolutely not!

When we filter this purely domestic view through the currency and capital flows, these two events are exactly opposite of each other. In 1929, the capital inflows were pouring into the USA whereas in 2008 then were exiting. The 2000 Dot.COM Bubble took place with a capital inflow.

The important difference is always the currency. Great bubbles unfold only when foreign capital is pouring into a domestic market. This is when the Japanese Nikkei Bubble took place in 1989. The capital left the USA as the Plaza Accord was pronouncing they wanted the dollar down by 40% to help trade. The swing in capital back to Japan looks like the brain wave of a real crazy person.

There is a risk of correction in the US Share Market after May. But this has nothing to do with the PE Ratio. We are looking at capital flows and that is the real key. The attempt by the Washington Post and New York Times to stir up a coup to oust Donald Trump will have far greater impact on the dollar and US assets than the PE Ratio, which is a very myopic domestic view.

Research – Where to find it

QUESTION: Mr, Armstrong; I read the research you provided for the Hong Kong WEC. I tried to see if I could find some of the Harper’s Weekly articles you photographed and perhaps others. They are not on line. May I ask, where do you get access to such material?

ANSWER: I have a very extensive library of bound volumes of newspapers from the USA as well as Britain. This has enabled me to conduct real research and see the thinking process and how it has evolved with the markets. First of all, I have to use the original source. Far too often when you dive into it, you find that people have made up quotes to support a predetermined agenda. This way, I can quote directly and not rely upon others.

Al-Sisi Strikes Back – Egyptian Fighter Jets Bomb Eastern Libya Terrorist Camps…

“America stands with President al-Sisi and all the Egyptian people today, and always, as we fight to defeat this common enemy.  America also makes clear to its friends, allies, and partners that the treasured and historic Christian Communities of the Middle East must be defended and protected.”

~ U.S. President Donald J Trump

Following the terrorist attack against Coptic Christians in Egypt, Egyptian military jets attacked Islamic extremist positions in eastern Libya.  The officials said the warplanes on Friday targeted the headquarters of the Shura Council in the city of Darna, where local militias are known to be linked to al-Qaida, not the Islamic State group.

The retaliatory bombings were aimed at terrorist outposts, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stated: “any form of state-sponsored terrorism should be punished. Anyone who attacks Egypt, whether they’re from inside or outside Egypt’s borders, will be punished.”  According to Egyptian TV six “terrorist” camps were struck by the sortie.

The jihadist targets selected by Egypt are thought to be the Islamic assailants’ training grounds. In the aftermath of Gaddafi’s fall, Libya has become a failed state where terrorists organize and coordinate without much central government opposition. Eastern Libya is a stronghold for radical Islamic sentiment.

President Donald Trump condemned the murder of the Coptic Christians. “Evil organizations of terror” with a “thuggish ideology” are responsible for the attacks against Christians, they will be crushed, he said.

Don’t be surprised to see the U.S. support al-Sisi with additional strikes launched from U.S. Naval Airbase in Sigonella Italy.  (He’s right next door

Media: “Republican Greg Gianforte wins Montana special election after body-slamming reporter”…

Too funny.  Um, I don’t think the political opinion writers at ABC are “writing” that headline with the same perspective as voters “reading” it.  [Story Here]

Republican candidate Greg Gianforte easily won his election bid for congress.   The media are apoplectic about the brazen victory – without even considering the possibility that Gianforte is less angry with national media than the voters who elected him.

Too funny.  Um, I don’t think the political opinion writers at ABC are “writing” that headline with the same perspective as voters “reading” it.  [Story Here]

Republican candidate Greg Gianforte easily won his election bid for congress.   The media are apoplectic about the brazen victory – without even considering the possibility that Gianforte is less angry with national media than the voters who elected him.

Interest Rates Up & Bonds Up?

While the Fed may be raising rates, there is still a flight to quality underway that is giving a bid to US Treasury issues. Low Treasury yields may remain the norm even if the Federal Reserve raises rates again. At about 2.25%, 10-year yields have dropped to 2017 lows, even with the central bank signaling an imminent rate hike. Many still see the stock market crash and that also supplies a bit of an underlying bid right now. However, The Fed has also made it clear it will maintain a gradual approach to shrinking its massive bond portfolio thereby reversing the Quantitative Easing. We are in never-never-land where the Fed tightening will not yet have a direct impact upon the bonds on a one-for-one relationship.

When we compare the 10-year to the 30-year, we see strikingly different patterns. The high on the 30 year is 2016 in price (low in yield), whereas the high on the 10-year in price (low in yield) remains 2012.

Now look at the 2-year rate bottomed in September 2011 (high in price). Clearly, 2-year rates have been rising gradually for 6 years already.

Now when we look at the 30-year on our Proprietary Perpetual 30 Year Contract back to 1798, we gain true perspective in how rates have performed in the long-term. We are clearly looking at a bond bubble, but the breaking point appears to be 2018. Because of the extreme flight to quality, we can still see a pop up in the 10-year before this is all over. This depends entirely upon the capital flows.