Inflationary Pressures Began After 2015 – Tariffs are a Distraction


Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

ECM 2015 2020 Detailed

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.

The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.

Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.

BIG BANG ECM 2015.75

Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.

2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.

Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.

People Flee Taxation


Posted originally on Jul 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

PopulationOfRome

I have written about how Rome fell, and just by mapping the population of Rome, you can see the fate of many current nations and states operating under poor fiscal policies – people sell and just leave. It is different this time because, under socialism, the government has become abusive. When it came to integration, they sought to implement it by sheer force.

You can’t legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. Jobs are created by the wealthy who become wealthy because of their innovative vision – i.e., Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and so on. Henry Ford’s vision created the auto industry. Bill Gates, in bringing DOS to life, created the personal computer industry, as did Steve Jobs. How much employment did just those three men create? Far more than government.

Government creates nothing to advance society or to increase GDP in any positive manner. It is a natural human response not to pay taxes and this is why taxes have been the number one reason for civil war and revolution. It is always resentful to pay taxes, whereas giving money to help someone is rewarding. Taxes tend to support politicians and their pensions. If they must sell some assets to take a government job, it is tax-free. Few leave government without growing their net worth far beyond what one could typically earn through income or investments.

The great welfare state has produced a large segment of fraud and kept many people down since they would rather be taken care of than work to take care of themselves. Even in prison, many people are sentenced to 10 or 20 years, and the first thing they do is commit a crime to get back in, where they do not have to pay taxes, and they are taken care of. You destroy people’s lives for such a long period for non-violent crimes, and then expect them to have a fulfilling life thereafter?

The Evolutionary Cycle of Civilization scaled

In the United States, we have witnessed a significant shift in the population since the COVID-19 pandemic. People are continuing to flee authoritarian states with high taxes like California, New Jersey, and New York in favor of financially friendly states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida.

New Zealand once had a program where if a woman was pregnant and she had no idea who the father was, the government provided everything right down to a free home. They ended up with the highest percentage of women who had no idea who the father of their child was. Naturally, they did know the identity of the biological father, and he would jump out the back window when the social worker visited. They got everything for free then.

Any of these types of programs employ a divide-and-conquer strategy. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government doesn’t first take from somebody else.  When you reach a state where 50% of the people depend upon the other 50% to pay their bills, you end up with class warfare and bitterness. This is the cycle where civilization rises, peaks, and then crashes when government becomes the enemy of the people.

Fractional Banking v Matched Funding


Posted originally on Jul 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Roman Banker

Banking has existed from the earliest of times and has taken many forms, from safe deposit storage, money changers, merchants with the ability to move money internationally, to money lenders. Some people wrongly assume that they can eliminate the business cycle by eliminating fractional banking. They assume that it will be possible to match lenders and borrowers to maturity contracts. They do not comprehend that this is the line of thinking that always leads to authoritarianism, all the way to communism.

The problem that will emerge from matching lenders and borrowers to a maturity contract is that the boom-bust cycle will still exist. There will always be the perpetual rise and fall in asset values caused by other factors (including human nature), not least of which will be changes in technology, civil unrest, and war that can alter capital flows. History offers a catalogue of solutions. All we need to test such an idea is to open the books.

Athen Akropolis_by_Leo_von_Klenze

People assume the cause of the business cycle is the fractional banking issue, as if that were eliminated, then you would flat-line the business cycle, creating utopia. Be very careful. This was the goal of Karl Marx as well. So the starting point is a basic question. Has fractional banking always existed? NO! Since the answer is no, then did the boom and bust cycle in banking exist even without fractional banking? The stark answer – YES.

In ancient times, financial panics also occurred without fractional banking. In Athens during 354BC, people borrowed money from the Temple unbeknownst to everyone else. They were speculating in real estate. The real estate market collapsed without fractional banking, and then it was exposed that the money was borrowed behind the curtain, so to speak, from the temple. Corrupt priests had all this money donated to Athena. She obviously was very frugal since she never seemed to go on a spending spree to buy shoes, owls, or spears. She wore a helmet so she didn’t need a hairdresser. So the priests could keep their hands out of the treasury. Oops – they were caught lending it out to their buddies for spare change. There was no fractional banking involved. They had the money and lent it to their buddies. The assets collapse because, as always, the mood of people changes with the seasons.

Wisselbank-2

Fast forward to the 17th century, and we find the very same scheme played out by politicians. There was the collapse of Wisselbank in Amsterdam, where people had deposited their money and assumed the bank was strictly a safekeeping facility. They offered no loans and paid no interest. Little did they know, the government was using their deposits to fund its own trading.

Netherlands Provinical - GELDERLAND Provincie 1581 - 1795

The Wisselbank was founded in 1609. Upon first opening an account, a depositor paid a fee of ten guilders, three guilders, and three stuivers for each additional account. Two stuivers were paid for each transaction, except those of less than three hundred guilders, for which six stuivers were paid, in order to discourage the multiplicity of small transactions. A person who neglected to balance his account twice in the year forfeited 25 guilders. A person who ordered a transfer for more than what was upon his account, was obliged to pay three per cent for the sum overdrawn. The bank made further profit by selling foreign coin and bullion, which fell to it by the expiration of receipts, and by selling bank money at five percent and buying it at four percent. These sources of revenue were more than enough to pay for the wages of bank officers and defray the expense of management. (Adam Smith)

In 1602, the United East India Company (VOC) was formed from six trading companies in the Netherlands and granted a trade monopoly over the Indies. The bank was administered by a committee of city government officials concerned to keep its affairs secret. It initially operated on a deposit-only basis, but by 1657, it was allowing depositors to overdraw their accounts, and lending large sums to the Municipality of Amsterdam and the United East Indies Company (Dutch East India Company). Initially, this was kept confidential, but it had become public knowledge by 1790. The City of Amsterdam took over direct control in 1791 as a bailout, before finally closing it in 1819.

There is plenty of history of banking BEFORE fractional banking. Sorry, but that did not stop banking panics nor did it stop the business cycle with the boom and bust events. The Tulip Bubble was not leveraged with fractional banking. No matter what, the boom and bust cycle is driven by human nature. We do have a tendency to change our minds about everything from fashion to money.

The idea of matching lenders and borrowers sounds appealing. However, that will not eliminate the cycle. I can find no instance of such a flat line except during a Dark Age where there was no banking, private ownership, or any real economy. Coinage during the period is rare and is typically confined to the region where it was struck, demonstrating the lack of an economy or circulation due to trade.

Steve Bannon: “Big Tech And Wall Street Grip Washington Like The Monarchy Once Gripped Parliament.”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: July 4, 2025, at 4:00 pm EST

Is ChatGPT Epistemic?


Posted originally on Jul 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Conversion Office for German Foreign Debts 100 Bond Nazi Government sold in the United States New York 1936

QUESTION: You said that the German Nazi Party was raising money selling bonds in the United States before they invaded Poland in 1939. When I asked AI, if the Nazis sold bonds in the US it said “No, the Nazi regime did not sell sovereign bonds in the United States after coming to power in 1933 and before the outbreak of WWII in 1939.” So, who is correct? You or AI?

ANSWER: From what I am being told, a problem is surfacing with ChatGPT-generated content, which often contains factual inaccuracies. The development of language models to engage in AI is presenting a problem. They are learning from the WEB, correct. However, they are not necessarily capable of verifying what is true or false. Here is a Conversion Office for German Foreign Debts $100 Bond (Nazi Government sold in the United States) into the New York 1936. I have the physical evidence that suggests that the answer you received was incorrect.

British Journal of Educational Technology (BJET) recently explained that “no research has yet examined how epistemic beliefs and metacognitive accuracy affect students’ actual use of ChatGPT-generated content, which often contains factual inaccuracies. ” For those unfamiliar with this arcane term of philosophy, linguistics, and rhetoric, epistemic, it traces back to the knowledge of the Greeks. That Greek word is from the verb epistanai, meaning “to know or understand.”

I try to be accurate, and if I state something as fact, I have generally verified it versus making a statement of just an “opinion,” perhaps derived from a belief. Nobody is perfect – not even ChatGPT.

Polling Patriotism – A Stunning Contrast Between Democrats and Republicans


Posted originally on CTH onJuly 4, 2025 | Sundance

CNN broadcast a rather remarkable polling outcome that hits on the issue of pride and patriotism.

The collapse of pride in America from the Democrats polled is only 36% percent. Compared to Republicans 92% proud to be an American. What a contrast.

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Building the Largest Army in Europe


Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GermanyUkraineWarPropogandaRecruitment

They say it takes a generation to reshape the way a nation views its military allegiance. Germany dwindled its military capacity significantly after its defeat in the last world war, wearing their loss as a badge of shame. Neither the people nor the government wanted to reinvigorate Germany’s military power after the destructive nation building and expansion under the Third Reich. The times have changed, as they always do, and Germany is now on the defensive. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz envisions forming the largest army in Europe.

“Building up our military is our top priority,” said Merz. “From now on, the federal government will provide the military with as much money as it needs to ensure it becomes Europe’s strongest armed force. We are Europe’s most populous country and Europe’s biggest economy, and nothing less should be expected from us. Our partners not only expect this — they demand it.”

Merz stated that Germany will spend 3.5% of its GDP on military defense over the next decade, placing spending as a percentage on par with the United States. Germany already found a loophole to spend on defense indefinitely after declaring an emergency and deciding to ignore prior military spending limits. The Germany government now plans to spend $400 billion on defense alone through 2029. Simultaneously, the nation will not cut social programs or readjust its overall budget as a constitutional amendment now permits lawmakers to bypass the debt brake and borrow in perpetuity without calculating that spending in the federal budget.

War drummer_clear

Germany believes it is on the right side of history due to its backing of Ukraine, the world’s favorite underdog. A refugee favorite, the nation has allowed 1.2 million Ukrainians into its borders since the war began. The nation hit a record-high for population growth in 2022 due to the number of migrants it has accepted.

Now, Germany provides more funding to Ukraine than any other European nation, and is third globally behind the US and UK. Merz has been an outspoken critic of the United States under Donald Trump due to his reluctance to support Ukraine, and he believes he build an iron-clad military so powerful that the entirety of Europe will no longer need to depend on America for defense.

The Bundeswehr, Germany’s military, currently has around 262,000 troops, but it would like to boldly increase its size with 200,000 additional troops and will spend €100 billion in a special fund to modernize its military. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in May 2024 that he was “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.” While there is no conscription, Germans are required to register for a potential draft before they turn 18. By June of 2024, I was informed by multiple personal sources that this registration had been extended to include women. One reliable source informed me that her female family friend was sent a notice to register at 59 years old.

Germany is the core foundation of the entire European economy. As they used to say about America, if it catches a cold, the rest of the world suffers pneumonia. Germany’s trajectory toward war is not driven by a public desire for conflict, but by economic, political, and geopolitical pressures—and especially by its entanglement with the European Union, its energy crisis and the collapse of fiscal discipline across Europe. Net Zero initiatives and cutting off cheap Russian gas drastically hurt the German economy by raising energy costs and stifling its auto market. The entire European Union is collapsing, with Germany at the center as the bloc’s primary financier. The EU needs war to maintain the illusion of control, and Germany must be at the frontlines as the bloc’s richest nation.

Rep. MTG: “Republicans CANNOT Pass Another Bloated Bill That Betrays The Agenda Americans Voted For”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 27, 2025, at 2:00 pm EST

Interview: Terrifying Iran War Prediction (PREPARE FOR THE WORST)


Posted  originally on Jun 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

“They’re Paid By The Weapon Industry.” Bannon Exposes Pentagon Deep State War Cheerleaders


Outwitted Benjamin Netanyahu, , NO Nukes, Iranian nuclear program  Trump booms Iran’s Nuclear bomb sites, Operation Midnight Hammer, B-2 Stealth Bomber,  Israel Accepts Ceasefire against, Iran Accepts Ceasefire, against Israeli, Trump out wits everyone. Putin Avoids War in Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Netanyahu, a Neocon, Mossad,

Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 26, 2025, at 1:00 pm EST