Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Poland is deploying about 40,000 soldiers on the borders with Belarus and Russia amid rising tensions after the Russian drone attack on September 10. Still, there are rumours that they have captured Russian drones and have deployed them to instigate a false flag. We cannot verify this rumour, but it is getting traction.

Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The parliamentary elections in Poland were held on Sunday, October 15, 2023. The election was a decisive victory for the opposition parties, who together won a majority of seats in the parliament. This resulted in a significant shift in Polish politics.

Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Multiple Russian drones were reportedly shot down in Polish airspace earlier this week, and now, the Polish government is urging NATO to respond. The violation of Polish airspace marked the first time that a NATO member directly engaged in combat with Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland has never been closer to enter a conflict since World War II. Polish President Karol Nawrocki believes that Russia is testing its limits. The government has called on NATO allies to invoke Article 4: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Not to be confused with Article 5, Article 4 is merely an agreement to discuss the security of a member nation. “The Russian provocation was nothing more than an attempt to test our capabilities and response. It was an attempt to check the mechanism of operation within NATO and our ability to react,” President Nawrocki commented.

Russia believes that the drone spotting was a false flag, and a “myths repeatedly spread by Poland in order to escalate the Ukrainian crisis further.” US President Trump questioned Russia’s actions on social media. Secretary General Mark Rutte affirmed that “allies expressed solidarity with Poland and denounced Russia’s reckless behavior.”

Article 4 is often the prelude to Article 5. It is the emergency meeting that takes place ahead of action. Poland has deployed 40,000 troops to its border with Belarus, where the drones were shot down. Russia and Belarus have planned to execute a joint military exercise named Zapad 2025 that will involve tens of thousands of troops.

“Poland has been preparing for the Zapad 2025 maneuvers for many months,” Cezary Tomczyk, a deputy defense minister, told broadcaster Polsat News. “The Polish Army has conducted exercises in which over 30,000 Polish soldiers, as well as soldiers of the [NATO] alliance, took part in order to adequately respond,” he said. “Let’s remember that Zapad 2025 is an offensive exercise.”

Was it a false flag? Belarus claims it provided Poland with advance notice that drones would enter its airspace. “The Belarusians warned us that drones were heading towards us through their airspace,” General Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, said. “It was surprising to me that Belarus, which is really trying to escalate the situation on our land border, decided to cooperate in this way.”

Belarus’ Chief of the General Staff, Pavel Muraveiko also claims that the drones veered off course and unintendedly entered Poland. “As the Russian Federation and Ukraine exchanged blows using unmanned aerial vehicles this night, duty forces and assets of the air defense system of the Republic of Belarus constantly monitored the unmanned aerial vehicles that veered off course due to electronic jamming from both sides,” Muraveiko said.

Drones should not have entered Polish airspace. The incident does appear accidental, as Belarus notified Poland in advance; however, sending unmanned weapons into a NATO nation is asking for trouble and a miscalculation that neither Russia nor Belarus can afford, with the neocons in NATO eagerly awaiting a reason to ignite World War III.