Has Trump Has Guaranteed Our War Model Will Be Correct?


Posted originally on Sep 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

EI taking Russian Assets
Russian Beart

When President Trump actually addressed the United Nations General Assembly during his first term, I remember that he criticized globalism, drawing derisive laughter that momentarily derailed his remarks. This time, nobody was laughing.

I had hoped that Trump’s flip-flop on Ukraine, which is now costing him sharply in the polls, would have just been a hard-nosed negotiation tactic. It appeared that he was perhaps being sarcastic, and one can even read this as walking away, insofar as he is mouthing everything that the NEOCONS and their mouthpiece, the ISW, keep saying that the sanctions are working, the Russian economy is about to collapse. Thus, is Russia a Paper Tiger? Then we have NATO, the Neocon retirement home, can walk in with 3.4 million troops against Russia’s 1.5, and Putin will fall to his knees and plead for his life.

Before this, Trump admitted that Ukraine was losing. At that meeting in the White House when Trump said Zelensky had no cards, this is inconsistent with his new flip-flop. Ukraine stands ZERO chance of surviving as a country because the EU is just using Ukraine as a pawn in their desire to conquer Russia. Zelensky is just lining his pockets to come out as a billionaire and flee Ukraine before it is toast.

Neocon Propaganda

The European leaders believe all of the NEOCON propaganda because they are the ones about to collapse, and they want to pretend Russia will fall first, and they get to pick up what’s left. This is the biggest crop of fools I have ever seen in my 50 years. Then telling the EU to stop buying Russian oil when their economies would collapse is another sarcastic type of remark.

But insulting Russia that it is a “paper tiger” and telling the NEOCON puppet Zelensky he had to keep all of Ukraine, which is the green light to kill all the Russians that are there and finish Bandera’s ethnic cleansing, and take part of Russia for its pleasure, is advocating an EU invasion of Russia. Then telling NATO to shoot down any Russian plane it desires is total insanity.

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has said that Putin should be worried now that Trump has joined their side against Russia. Trump has emboldened all of Europe, and they see this as the green light for World War III, with the NEOCONS telling them Russia is collapsing and easy prey. They have convinced these European leaders that they can take Russia with one arm tied behind their back and he will NEVER use nuclear weapons. They now have Trump ready to draft Americans and send them to another endless war to die for the glory of the NEOCONS.

eaglr vs bear

You can insult countries in trade disputes, but this is threatening the integrity of Russia and basically says it’s a joke of a country that should not even exist. What Trump seems to be naive about is that these NEOCONS have complete control of NATO and the EU. There is NO WAY they will EVER accept Russia as a peaceful nation.

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If Trump thinks he is being clever with a sarcastic commentary, our computer is warning that he is giving the green light to NATO to start WWIII and then invoke Article 5. Things do not always work out as intended.

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The other side of this question cannot be interpreted as a sarcastic remark when Trump tells the EU to shoot down Russian Planes. I don’t think giving the NEOCONS this type of permission will exonerate Trump from the history books, for they will say he ordered us to do this – he started WWIII.

EU New Scheme To Rob Russian Assets

Brussels is scheming to steal all the Russian assets and use them to fund its conquest of Russia. Up to now, they can seize interest generated by Russian assets but not the capital sums. They are presenting this as Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and rebuild. But then they want to sell arms to Ukraine, which they will use the Russian money to fund the EU. The new proposal to hand them the actual capital itself is being called “legally creative,” and they want to release $200 billion to $300 billion at Euroclear, while France has another $70 billion, and rumors have it that they have been dipping into that illegally already. Presenting this as a major stream of additional funding for Zelensky without technically expropriating the Russian assets themselves, which would be legally risky.

Ursula Leader of EU

They are proposing to swap the cash for zero-coupon short-term EU bonds. The Commission believes it will avoid accusations of confiscating the money, which violates international law, and NO COUNTRY should have any money in Europe at all!!!! So you buy 30-year zero-coupon European Debt, which they cannot sell, holding off their Sovereign Debt Crisis, then take 30 years of interest now and use that to fund their conquest of Russia. If they destroy Russia, then they get to keep everything.

Taurus_Neo_missile

Buried in the German rearmament plan revealed by Politico was a €2.373 billion contract for Taurus Neo missiles. That sum should buy roughly 600 units. They will find their way to Ukraine, and Zelensky was to wipe out the Kremlin itself.

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Zelenskiy has refused to allow elections and says he is ready to leave office ONLY after the Russia conflict: ‘My goal is to finish the war.‘ This is why, personally, he will never agree to peace. Zelensky asked Trump for Tomahawk missiles in a private UN meeting. Zelensky threatened Putin that those in the Kremlin should know where the bomb shelters are when he gets YS Tomahawk missiles.

Sanctions Russia

The U.S. sanctions on Cuba were imposed in two parts by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, which was the first trade embargo in response to the revolutionary government of Fidel Castro nationalizing U.S.-owned properties (like oil refineries and sugar mills) without compensation and aligning with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This initially involved cutting off the Cuban sugar quota, a major blow to the island’s economy. Then, on February 7, 1962, President John F. Kennedy formally declared a full economic embargo against Cuba through Proclamation 3447. This made the restrictions comprehensive and legally binding.

Are the Sanctions Still There Today? Yes, the core U.S. economic embargo on Cuba is still in place today.

This is what Putin looks at. Once the West imposes sanctions for geopolitical reasons, they become permanent. The Cuban sanctions are still there 65 years later, long after Fidel Castro is long gone.  It is still illegal to sell Cuban Cigars commercially within the United States.

Look at Iran. The major international sanctions began in 1979 after the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, but the most severe and impactful sanctions were imposed between 2006 and 2012, primarily over Iran’s nuclear program. The Iran sanctions have been there for 46 years, and the government has still not fallen.

There is ZERO hope of Russia ever joining the world economy, and this is what they are coming to grips with.


Zelensky wants NATO to NUKE Russia as a Preemptive Strike

Zelensky WWIII

NATO is desperate for a FALSE FLAG to justify World War III. The NEOCONS have spent their entire lives dreaming about destroying all Russians. It does not matter that Communism fell. They hate the Russian people. That’s OK, but if you say you do not like immigrants, Starmer will throw you in prison for hate speech. They use it all the time when it comes to the Russian people as a whole. Initially, I warned that all my sources indicated Zelensky was hand-picked to create WWIII by the Neocons. Many Ukrainians do not believe he was legitimately elected.


Russia’s Response

Medvedev Dmitry Anatolyevich

“The Kiev drug addict said the Kremlin should know where a bomb shelter is so its occupants can hide when he uses long-range American weapons,” Medvedev wrote. “What the freak needs to know is that Russia can use weapons a bomb shelter won’t protect against. Americans should also keep this in mind.”

Russia has the most nuclear warheads in the world, according to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

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Russia’s top diplomat has accused NATO and the European Union of declaring war on Russia and using Ukraine as its proxy. Of course, the EU and NATO lie through their teeth and have claimed that this is a distortion of reality and said it is Moscow that has “brought war back to Europe.”

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Boris Johnson, who has routinely flown to Kiev to instruct Zelensky, cannot sign peace deals, to insist on going to the White House and embarrass Trump into funding Europe’s war to conquer Russia, has publicly admitted that “We are in a proxy war against Russia.”  I am so sick and tired of these European lies. Enough is enough.

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Both he and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have repeatedly said “Labour will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes to win”. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also told Zelensky he is willing to allow Ukraine’s use of UK-supplied long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia.

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Reuters has reported that the Kremlin “flatly rejected what Donald Trump said was the rationale behind his rhetorical U-turn on the war in Ukraine, saying it appeared that the U.S. president had been influenced by Ukraine’s leader and was mistaken.”


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Look, I have been trying to defeat my own computer all the time. I have failed every single time. These forecasts are personal opinions. This is why we have more institutional clients than probably everyone else combined. It’s not that my opinion is better than everyone. They want to know what the computer says, not me. When people thought I was nuts, saying 100% chance of nuclear war was on the horizon, and Trump seemed to be a real president, people wondered how that forecast could possibly be correct. I myself was on the phone with some people in Congress and was told they would keep us out of war with Russia. Those days are gone in just a few weeks.

When I ask Socrates what the prospects of nuclear war are, it still comes up with 100%. It still sees the end of Ukraine, and it still projects the collapse of the European Union post-2030. These are not my personal opinions.

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Geopolitics 1

I am the RELUCTANT economist and geopolitical analyst. These are fields I never intended to aspire to. If you had asked me in High School if I would want to be advising on this level internationally, flying from country to country, addressing boardrooms of some of the largest multinational companies in the world, I would have said you were out of your mind. I was a trader whose father pushed me into computer engineering in the late ’60s because I did not want to become a lawyer and follow him in his footsteps with “and son” on the door.

1985EconomistAdd Full R
1985EconomistAdd

After learning computer engineering from the hardware to the software, I was able to create what became the first fully functioning Artificial Intelligence computer, which monitored the entire world to assist me in hedge fund management. I was named Economist of the Decade for the ’80s. I took the bank page of the Economist for three week in July 1985 to announce the turn in the Economic Confidence Model that deflation was over, inflation would then begin, and that was the low in gold, the peak in the dollar with the pound reaching $1.03, and because in 1983 I was on TV and forecast that the British pound would fall from T2 level to par, everyone thought that forecast was nuts.

1983 Trenton Times
1983 Wall Street Journal

By 1983, I was being touted as the highest-paid analyst in the world. The WSJ interviewed many clients. They were shocked. They told me people said they would pay $10,000 an hour back then. I did not realize I was advising on tens of billions in 1983.

EQUITY Economist of Decade Martin Armstrong
Equity Magazine Text 1990
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Takeover Boom 80s
Dow Jones Earnings Book Value 1937 1982

By the end of the 1980s, I had been called America’s top economist. I advised major takeover players, such as Alan Bond from Australia. We made so much money that he created Bond University. The computer had projected that the stock market would TRIPLE. People could not believe that forecast. I would speak at conferences and show these two charts that the book value of the Dow reached its final historical low in 1977 from the 1929 high.

Eonomic Confidence Model Public Private MA
Public v Private

I was running around warning that a major shift was taking place with the transition from PUBLIC to PRIVATE confidence, and the low in book value was the hallmark of a public wave, where stocks were a dirty word and government was to be trusted, post-Great Depression. People bought the bonds and discarded the stocks. From the 1975 low of 622 on the S&P, it rallied into 1987 to 3378 level. This was why I took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks during July 1985 to go on record (1985.65) that a major change in the world economy would take place. That was the Plaza Accord, the birth of the G5, and the peak in the dollar, ending the deflation.

The computer was correct again.

Letter Armstrong to Reagan October 1985 With Photo
Jack KEMP letter

Because I was at the forefront of foreign exchange forecasting, I was called on in 1985 when they were creating the G5 – now G20. I even wrote to President Reagan objecting to this attempt to manipulate the dollar down to relieve the trade deficit. They did that at the Plaza Accord in 1985. They disrupted the capital flows and were right on target with the ECM model for the turn in July 1985.

1987 Crash Brady Commission
ECM 1987 Crash

When the 1987 Crash took place, our model forecasted that even to the very day, I was then called into the 1987 Presidential Commission investigating the crash. I managed to get them not to blame computer trading, but it was really the G5 and the manipulation of the currency markets. Lowering the dollar may make your exports cheaper, but it also devalues all assets purchased by foreigners, compelling them to sell.

1995 Political Forecast 2 21 Detail

The computer forecast that there would be a sweeping Republican victory during the midterms in 1994.  But the forecast was also put out that the Democratic Party may become extinct after 2020. We have seen deep divisions, and the risk that this will split has increased post-2024.

1997 Asian Currency Crisis
Rubin Letter
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MA China Diet r

I was called in by the Bank of China concerning the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. I got to see the transition from Communism to Capitalism firsthand.

FT June 27 1998
MA Fund Manager Year
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I was named Hedge Fund Manager of the year for that call, we had made up to 60% in a single month. It was at the June 1998 Conference that I also met with the commission designing the Euro afterward. They had taken the entire back row of that conference.

Barrons 2010 detail
Djow New High Barrons
Time Magazine 2009
Armstrong FX Person of the Year

In 2015, I even met with the Swiss central bank to warn them that the peg was about to break. They thought they could hold it. I warned that it was impossible.

I have done my best to help society and have paid the price for that. They can accuse me of having too much influence, but whenever I try to warn them not to do something, they do not listen. So my warnings about war and the ultimate destruction of Western Society go in one ear and out the other. People believe what they want to believe, as Julius Caesar said long ago. I have an unmatched track record. But they still will not listen.

Yet Again, Deep State Attacks DNI Tulsi Gabbard


Posted originally on CTH on September 26, 2025 | Sundance

It is difficult not to notice the strategy of how certain Trump administration officials are targeted.

Any cabinet member that looks inward to reveal the status of corrupt activity within the information silo itself becomes a target. Cabinet officials who focus externally, meaning the majority of their effort looks outside government, are seemingly left alone.

HHS Secretary RFK Jr and Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, are examples of those receiving the worst ideological targeting from operations within HHS and the Intelligence Community respectively.

Conversely, CIA Director John Ratcliffe faces almost no scrutiny or targeting by the Intelligence Community as the silo operators frame narratives almost exclusively against DNI Gabbard.

The latest effort surfaces as embeds within Main Justice and the CIA frame a storyline that Tulsi Gabbard’s action in removing the security clearances of 37 current and former officials, has now resulted in those same officials being incapable of testifying against former CIA Director John Brennan (and others).

The premise of the narrative is ridiculous.  If we are to accept some current or former IC officials are willing to testify against Brennan (or others), regardless of whether Tulsi Gabbard has revoked their security clearances, their retroactive knowledge is still pertinent.  They are completely free to give statements and testimony based on their prior conduct.

What the leakers to Axios and the New York Times are trying to establish, is groundwork for the removal of Tulsi Gabbard. This stops her objective of investigating internal corruption.  I suspect most of the people trying desperately to undermine Gabbard are from within the CIA Directorate of Analysis, or at least in alignment with the directorate’s agenda.

The narrative’s author, Marc Caputo, claims AG Pam Bondi is hampered in her effort to criminally indict John Brennan because the witnesses Main Justice would use have lost their security clearances.  Again, the game of leveraging internecine friendships in/around the office of Trump becomes an overlay.

It is certainly true that AG Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel have refused to look internally; and it is also true that DNI Tulsi Gabbard has spent much of her focus time looking internally.  Bondi and Patel continue the preferred game of institutional blame-casting in Main Justice. Meanwhile, Gabbard is busy focused on cleaning up her IC house.

The Fourth Branch embeds do not fear the approach of Bondi/Patel, but the Fourth Branch embeds are petrified by the approach of Tulsi Gabbard.  That reality underpins the baseline of opposition against the Director of National Intelligence.

As the dynamic unfolds, CIA Director John Ratcliffe is certainly not corrupt; however, nor is he brave.  Director Ratcliffe is willing to let Director Gabbard clean up his house, and then he takes credit for the reform.  As the weeks unfold into months, this is becoming increasingly obvious.

Mark Zaid is the current anti-Trump Lawfare operative likely seeding the narrative to Axios/New York Times.

Mark Zaid, a Trump administration critic who represents six of the intelligence professionals whose clearances were revoked, said administration officials fretting about the Brennan case have “valid concerns.”

“This seems to be, as usual, an unforced error by Trump administration officials who don’t think things through in the long game in favor of a quick-pass completion,” he said. “If I were the defense counsel [for Brennan], I would raise the revocation in an attempt to undermine the credibility of the witnesses.” (more)

Mark Zaid knows the game-changing process that DNI Tulsi Gabbard is using.

Gabbard is directly going into each IC agency to review and retrieve information.  When she finds something that connects to the overall plots being used by the Fourth Branch, the DNI takes that information directly to President Trump who subsequently declassifies it and then she releases it.

Zaid and the Deep State operatives he represents, want to stop Tulsi Gabbard with urgency.   They are throwing every available IC narrative into the media flow in the hope that something stops Tulsi’s effectiveness.

Geoffrey Miller: Their Goal Is To Pass Off All Human Power And Agency To These Systems


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Trump Taking Us Into World War III


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Trump advised by NEOCONS

The NEOCONS are advising Trump. All is lost. The computer will be correct, so buckle up. If September proves to be the high for the euro, things can change starting in October. Trump may think he can put pressure on Russia to stop the war, but he may get a reality check. He has no idea what he is playing with. These NEOCONS will NEVER accept peace with Russia. Their entire lives have been filled with hatred of Russians. Putin is well aware. There will NEVER be peace with the West, and Trump has just signed the death warrant for the United States. China will emerge as the Financial Capital of the world after 2032. Just like the London bankers couldn’t see that World War I would end the domination of Britain, they voluntarily got into a war that destroyed them all because of the ethnic hatred in the Balkans. History repeats. This is our turn.

Zelensky on Stage R

Trump is destroying our future for this?

I am embarrassed to be an American

Trump Surrenders to the NEOCONS – Bolton Won!


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

White House Logo

QUESTION: I heard you on a Podcast say you would meet with Trump if asked. If that could be arranged, would you do it?

OP

ANSWER: I seriously doubt that the powers that be in DC will EVER allow me to get close to Trump. I will be suicided if I step foot close to the White House. The NEOCONS have completely compromised Trump. I am very disappointed to say the least. The computer has never been wrong. He is being led by the nose to take us into World War III.

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This is the total BS that NEOCONS put out – SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS. This strategy has NEVER worked, and Trump is following their direction. Cutting off buying energy from Russia will not stop the war. The end goal is always the same. Hurt the Russian people so much that they will rise up and overthrow their government, and then have a ticker tape parade and pin the highest medals on Dick Cheney, John Bolton, Bill Kristol, Tony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, etc.

Russia might as well push the button because there is absolutely no way the WEST will ever accept Russia, no matter what. They are only interested in conquering Russia and stripping it of all its assets. Sorry, I am not sure I would even want to waste my time talking to Trump. He is going down the path of a warmonger that everyone voted against. The NEOCONS have won.