Tag Archives: Hualālai

May 26 2018

Robot Can Ride a Bike and Balance Itself


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology

Re-Posted May 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

May 26 2018

When is the Next Megathrust Earthquake Due?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted May 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, What do you make of the risk from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where two major plates are stuck? Scientists ‘predict’ a major earthquake up to 9.2 on the Richter-scale and the following tsunami, that could level Seattle and other cities in the Northwest. A major earthquake – that occurs there every 240 years the last 10.000 years – would be overdue by over 75 years already. You warn about an uptick in earthquake activity the coming years: will this be the feared big one for the US? I’m following you since I saw you on Dutch television and watched the documentary – and it was deeply impressed. Looking forward to your documentary about the unfolding euro crisis!

best regards,

Martijn, Netherlands

ANSWER: That is a very good question. Most people have never even heard of this fault. It is the big one of them all. The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is what is known as a”megathrust” fault which is a 625 miles long (1,000 km). It is a dipping fault which stretches from Northern Vancouver Island to Cape Mendocino in California. This separates the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. New Juan de Fuca plate is created offshore along the Juan de Fuca Ridge which moves toward the North American plate and eventually pushes beneath the entire continent. This one is no joke. It is the ONLY fault which is capable of producing earthquakes that are greater than M8.5 and can reach into 9 to 10 level on the scale. In fact, the CSZ has already produced magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes in the past. It is not 75 years overdue according to our models. We entered the danger zone only in 2009, which then turned sharply higher in February 2018.

The last megathrust earthquake hit on January 26th, 1700 (1700.071) which has been estimated to have been in the 8.7–9.2 level. The megathrust earthquake involved an average slip of 20 meters (66 ft). That was a very big move. Most quakes are under 2 feet. That 1700 megathrust earthquake caused a tsunami which struck the coast of Japan.

 

There are no exact records, so it is nearly impossible to develop an accurate forecast with only one actually known date. The geological evidence can only tell us that there have been 7 such events in past 3,000 years. That would produce an average cycle of 428.57 years. This is not much help. We need to correlate this with the energy output of the sun since most volcanoes tend to erupt during Solar Minimums. Indeed, the last megathrust earthquake took place on January 26th, 1700 (1700.071) during the Maunder Minimum. We are watching the energy output of the sun drop faster since 2015 than anyone thought possible. This means that the first ideal target would be ideally 320.78 years from that last event or 2020.85 (November 6th, 2020).

Unfortunately, do not expect this event to take place on that exact date. All we have is just one known date 1700.071. Correlating that with the activity of the sun, we can at best come up with an approximation for the event. We have no way of predicting the exact date when there is little historical definitive evidence. Look at the ECM Wave at that time #897,  we can see that the megathrust earthquake of 1700 took place going into the Pi target. If the date was correct, then 1700.071 is just a few weeks ahead of schedule.

In any event, we are by no means 75 years overdue. That is simply using an average for events.

May 18 2018

Hawaii Volcano – Right of Schedule?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

RE-Posted May 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

(Download USGS Report on Hawaii)

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I think you have proven time and again that there is a cyclical nature to everything. You said in the report you did on volcanos last year that 2018 would be the beginning of serious eruptions. Well, I live here on the main island in Hawaii. This is by far the worst I have seen here in my life.

DKR

ANSWER: I do not believe that people understand that Hawaii is rather unique. The continuous flow of lava made many complacent. This was due to the fact that Hawaii sits on what is called a “hot spot” which was put forth back in 1963 by J. Tuzo Wilson, a geophysicist, who explained the framework of plate tectonics by proposing the “hot spot” hypothesis. Wilson’s hypothesis has come to be widely accepted. The scientific data on linear volcanic island chains in the Pacific Ocean created the Hawaiian Islands. This “hot spot” has created a very distinctive linear shape of the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain demonstrating that there has been a linear progressive movement of the Pacific Plate over a “deep” and “fixed” hot spot. It is still debated as to how far down this hot spot extends. It is not known precisely if it extends only a few hundred miles or does it go down thousands of miles, perhaps to Earth’s core-mantle boundary itself

Nevertheless, the Hawaiian Islands are really just that peaks of huge mountains that rise from the floor of the Pacific Ocean. The newest of these islands, Hawai’i, is relatively young, speaking geologically of course. The oldest rocks above sea level are less than one million years old. The Island of Hawai’i was actually formed by five volcanoes, yet today currently only three are considered active: Hualālai, Mauna Loa and Kīlauea. Because they seem to sit on a hot spot, they have been continuously active which make them the world’s most active volcanoes.

There is a new sister volcano known as Lō’ihi Seamount, which is still underwater yet also an active volcano about 20 miles off the southeast coast of Hawai’i. Indeed, Lō’ihi may be the next island to emerge in the Hawaiian chain. It is still about 3,000 feet below sea level. Using a linear project, which discounts major eruptions, then it would appear as a new island in about 100,000 years or so. If we get bursts of an eruption, which is cyclically more likely, then that time period could be cut in half.

Historical Eruptions at Kilauea volcano have occurred from both the summit caldera and from vents along the East Rift Zone. The historical record began with a very explosive phreatomagmatic eruption in 1790. The year 2018 was the start of a major eruption sequence. We can see from the chart above that the INTENSITY has picked up significantly since 1924. It was after this 1790 eruption when the volcano has become almost continuously active. It was 1924 when the more gentle effusion turned back to an explosive eruption. The period 1924 to 1955 saw mostly short-duration summit eruptions. Since 1955, Kilauea has seen mostly East Rift Zone activity interspersed with small summit eruptions.

Kilauea’s Eruption rate diminished steadily over the first half of the historic period but has been increasing again since 1924. Currently, we now have “ballistic blocks” being hurled into the air which are the size of microwave ovens. This is typically the warning that this eruption can turn very explosive. The intensity actually began to rise over the past 4 years. This was a perfect 224-year cycle. Hawaii may be complete resurfaced in 2048.

I will restate what I wrote last year: “If we see a series of volcanic eruptions in the VEI 6 category or greater within 2018, expect to see a very sharp turn down in temperature and Global Cooling will take on rapid change going into 2024.” Correlations suggest that when the energy output of the sun declines, as it is doing now, then larger erutptions tend to correlate to such periods.