President Trump Delivers a Message on Hurricane Michael Recovery…


Media reporting has only scratched the surface on the devastation. Collaborative FEMA and National Guard assessments are ongoing. Pray for the missing; there are hundreds missing.

Global Warming & Pole Shifts


QUESTION: Hi Martin. I see that you have reported a lot about the coming global cooling. Here in Scandinavia, we had a warm and dry summer, the warmest and dryest in about 250 years. Is there an opposite reaction to the global cooling here in Scandinavia?

regards,

TK

ANSWER: No. What is happening is clearly climate change. The big question remains are we talking about a pole shift or simply a collapse in the cycles to a minimum? Areas that are traditionally cold are getting warming and vice versa. I was in Germany in Bavaria and it was hot. In fact, that area typically does not get hot so the buildings, including hotels, do not even have air conditioning. Off in Ukraine, which is notorious for a hot summer in Kiev, was dramatically cooler. Even here in the USA, the north was bitterly hot and here in the Tampa area in Florida, we NEVER had a single day that reached 100F (37.7778c). I also previously reported how girls were wearing bikinis in Siberia for the first time.

The weather patterns are flipping. This idea that there is Global Warming for the entire planet as a whole is just nonsense. It is preventing real research into what is going on and are we in the early stages of a pole shift, which is overdue. The problem is that such events take place every 720,000 years or so (see Maya Report).  Consequently, nobody knows for sure. There is concern that what we are facing is a pole shift given what is normally warm is cold and vice versa. Those in geology know the cycles of the Earth. They are at odds with those claiming Global Warming is being caused by women driving the kids to soccer practice.

The forecasts were that New York City would be under water by 2000. Then they moved the target to 2020. Now the IPPC moved it again to 2050. The forecasts about nuclear war have also been proven incorrect. The research is really the worst I have ever seen.

The relevance of all this to markets is the backdrop to the commodity cycle.

Hurricane Michael 2018 Haunting Similarity To Hurricane Andrew 1992 (Just Smaller Geography)…


The parallels between Homestead after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Mexico Beach after Hurricane Michael are stunning.  There are remarkable similarities including the first 48 hours of media incomprehension due to their inability to gain access.

For those who might not remember, immediately following hurricane Andrew (’92) no-one initially realized the scale of devastation in/around Homestead, FL, because all eyes were focused on the more well-known Miami area.  It took a few days for people to fathom where the real devastation took place.  Homestead was almost entirely obliterated.

Fast forward 26 years and the exact same scenario exists near Mexico Beach, FL.  The difference between Michael and Andrew is the width of the devastation.  Andrew was a much wider storm than Michael; but the aftermath is eerily similar.  Seriously, it’s PTSD flashback central…. stunningly so.

Just like the area around Homestead AFB ’92, the area around Tyndall AFB in 2018 is identical. Complete devastation.  Amazing. I mean the comparisons are spookily similar, right down to the displayed fighter jets being torn from their concrete pedestals.

This is probably the only time I will ever agree with Senator Bill Nelson:

As you go east of Panama City, that’s where that wall of water on the eastern side of the eye wall is,” Sen. Bill Nelson said. “You are going to see a lot of destruction when the rescue crews get into Mexico Beach. … That’s where you’re going to see the extreme, extreme devastation.”

The coastal community is gone.  There’s maybe a handful of houses and structures that did not have structural failure.

Further inland, with each mile traveled the number of livable structures seems to increase.  Buy the time you get around 15 miles away things look more like typical hurricane damage.

However, the roadways and transit hubs are a mess, without a heavy duty 4×4 it’s impossible to move around.  Forget about trying to get power crews in here. Some roads are completely impassable – just like Andrew in ’92 that makes rescue and recovery efforts slow down dramatically.

It will take days for the main arteries to be cleared; and that only then starts to get access to the secondary inbound roadways.  Once this process is complete (48 hours) that will allow a more thorough evaluation, the scale of the damage, to be possible.

That said, like Andrew, this post-Michael recovery effort is going to take a long time and a very long-term commitment.

No-one inside the impact zone is reading this because there is complete infrastructure failure.  No power, no water, no cell towers, no communication, etc.  It’s the old fashioned relay system…  who are you?  what is your status?  who do you need us to contact?  write it down….. then you travel 30 to 40 miles, find a network, and sit down and start making relay calls.

My friends and readers please remember this.  When we shared the importance of setting up a communication hub as part of your hurricane plan, this is exactly why.

.

Tyndall AFB:

.

President Trump Oval Office FEMA Briefing…


As a very powerful hurricane Michael approached the Florida panhandle President Trump, DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and FEMA Director Brock Long brief the president on current storm response and recovery status.

Hurricane Michael Enters Georgia Retaining 125 Cat3 Windspeed….


Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, as a strong 155 mph hurricane.  The storm is now entering the southeast Georgia area while retaining quite a bit of energy.  The 5:00pm EST advisory: Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. (read more)

Due to the speed of the storm there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process even before nightfall today. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.

But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Most cell phone services will likely be knocked out. Recovery teams will begin a street-by-street review; everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.

Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.

It will all be cattywampus.

Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.

I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.

Stay away from power-lines.

Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours. Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and fuel trucks.

Florida Recovery Staging Area

Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process. Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it. Those same front-end loaders will also be removing feet of sand from coastal roads. Don’t go sightseeing… stay in your neighborhood.

For the first 36-48 hours, please try to stay close to home, in your neighborhood. Another reason to stay close to home is the sketchy people who can sometimes surface, looters etc. Staying close to home and having contact with your neighbors is just reasonable and safer.

Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok. There are going to be roofing nails everywhere, and you will likely get multiple flat tires in the weeks after the hurricane.

Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you are on the road and there’s a convoy of utility trucks on the road, pull over. Treat power trucks and tanker trucks like ambulances and emergency vehicles. Pull over, give them a clear road and let them pass.

When everyone gets to work, if you see a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get unnecessarily familiar, a simple: “thank you for your help” will suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.

Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. Some will be staging at evacuation shelters, likely schools and such. The need to shelter people and recovery crews might also delay the re-opening of schools.

Power Crews prep, fuel-up and prepare to rebuild power grid…

Once you eventually start getting power back, if you see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”. If you can pay their tab, do it. If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.

Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Fuel is the lifeblood of recovery. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.

Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit. Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.

Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.

Pray together and be strong together. It might sound goofy to some, but don’t be bashful about being openly thankful in prayer.

It will be ok.

It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.

Hurricane Michael Becomes an Extremely Dangerous Category 4 Storm….


Unfortunately the predictions of continued strengthening have proved accurate. Hurricane Michael now holds sustained winds over 130 MPH with additional strengthening likely prior to landfall later today. This makes Michael a Category-4 hurricane; the strongest to hit the Florida panhandle in history.  It looks like Panama City Beach is in the bulls-eye.

[National Hurricane Center] At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

The center of Michael’s eye is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. (read more)

As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes. I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.

But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value. Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.

A category-4 storm can and will erase structures, buildings and landscape. This storm is very similar to Hurricane Charley which impacted the SW coast of Florida in 2004. The coastal topography will likely change in the 60 mile wide area of immediate impact.

Total infrastructure failure should be anticipated and it will take weeks for restoration. The coastal communities are the most vulnerable; however, the inland impact of the storm will continue unimpeded until the eye-wall crosses onto land.

That means communities inland for 50 miles will likely see consistent 100+ MPH winds for several hours. That scale of sustained wind energy will snap power poles and reinforced concrete.

As the backside of the storm then reverses the energy direction, any already compromised structures will not withstand the additional pressure. In many cases the backside of the storm is worse than the front.  If you are inland, prepare yourself for a long duration of extensive wind damage followed by an extended power outage.

For those who are in the path of the storm, there comes a time when all options are removed and you enter the “Hunkering Down” phase.  You’re just about there now. Fortunately, just like Charley, this particular hurricane will move fast and that might mitigate some of the coastal storm surge (only one part of one tidal cycle).  However, in totality from impact through recovery this is going to be a long-duration event.

When the sustained winds reach around 45mph today the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power.  This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild.  It is almost a guarantee you will not lose power due to damage from the storm but rather because of proactive measures from your power company. Do not expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.

Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary.  There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.   The sounds are scary. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness.  Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks.  Trees will bend and break; the sounds are dramatic.

There’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget.  It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar.  It is very unique sound in depth and weight.  Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight.  Stay clear of windows and doors, and within an interior room of the house or apartment if possible.  That scary roar sounds like it won’t ever quit…. it will… eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.

A hurricane wind is a constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms. Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts, builds and stays; sometimes for hours.  Relentless, it just won’t let up.  And then, depending on Michael’s irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, it will stop.  Judging by the forward speed the hurricane force wind will likely last around 2 hours before it stops.

Then silence.  No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.

Nature goes mute.  It’s weird.

We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.

Due to the speed of the storm there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process even before nightfall today. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west.  A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up.   Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.

But first, there will be an assessment.  The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Most cell phone services will likely be knocked out.  Recovery teams will begin a street-by-street review; everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid.  Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.

Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.

It will all be cattywampus.

Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.

I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.

Stay away from power-lines.

Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours.  Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and fuel trucks.

Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months.  Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system.  When that raging Michael takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.

It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.

Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.

Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs.  Like I said, everything is cattywampus.  Your brain-memory will need to reboot and rewire.  In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.

No street signs. Likely no stop signs.  No traffic lights.

Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION.  Even the major intersections.

You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit.  You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention.  Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.

Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before.  It ain’t normalville now.

Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too.  In the aftermath, there’s no class structure.  Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess.  Everyone is equally a mess.

The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.

You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together.  If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane.  Git-r-done lives there.

Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood.  Figure out who’s got chainsaws, who knows how to correctly use them, and set about safely clearing the road.  If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.

Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc.  It’s a process.  Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path.  Just deal with it.  Those same front-end loaders will also be removing feet of sand from coastal roads.  Don’t go sightseeing… stay in your neighborhood.

For the first 36-48 hours, please try to stay close to home, in your neighborhood.  Another reason to stay close to home is the sketchy people who can sometimes surface, looters etc. Staying close to home and having contact with your neighbors is just reasonable and safer.

Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet.  It’ll be ok.  There are going to be roofing nails everywhere, and you will likely get multiple flat tires in the weeks after the hurricane.

After this storm half of the people living near PCB are going to fit into two categories, two types of people: (1) those with a new roof; or (2) those with a blue roof (tarp).

Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk.  You will be surrounded by jerks….  elevate yourself.  If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk.  Keep your wits about you and stay calm.

Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you are on the road and there’s a convoy of utility trucks on the road, pull over.  Treat power trucks and tanker trucks like ambulances and emergency vehicles.  Pull over, give them a clear road and let them pass.

When everyone gets to work, if you see a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks.  Just simple “thanks”.  Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get unnecessarily familiar, a simple: “thank you for your help” will suffice.  You know, ordinary people skills.

Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts.  Some will be staging at evacuation shelters, likely schools and such.  The need to shelter people and recovery crews might also delay the re-opening of schools.

Once you eventually start getting power back, if you see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”.  If you can pay their tab, do it.  If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.

Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network.  Those will get power before other locales without power.  Fuel outlets are a priority.  Fuel is the lifeblood of recovery. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.

Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood.  Don’t quit.  Recovery is a process.  Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.

Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.

Pray together and be strong together.  It might sound goofy to some, but don’t be bashful about being openly thankful in prayer.

It will be ok.

It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.

√Andrew

√Jeanne

√Frances

√Ivan

√Charley  (Michael will be like this one)

√Irma

Keep a good thought.  Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.

It’ll be OK.  Promise.

Hurricane Michael


 

I want to thank everyone for sending in emails of concern with regard to Hurricane Michael. It is not likely to hit our area. However, the last bad hurricane to hit Tampa was in 1921 which was a Category 4 with 140 mph winds. It was an unusual storm like Michael which began in the Carribean during mid-October rather than in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa and normal. The storms that start in the Atlantic typically will not impact the West Coast. The storms that are most dangerous to this area are those that begin in the Carribean like Michael.

1921 TAMPA Category 4

 

The previous major hurricane was September 23–25, 1848 Category 4, which also formed in the Gulf of Mexico. There was also a lessor one in 1946 which was a Category 2, which also formed in the Gulf. The worst to hit the West Coast was Hurricane Charley in 2004 which hit as a Category 4. This one was an Atlantic storm which entered the Gulf and then turned right coming up the West Coast. The computer projections show a major one due in Tampa of a Category 4 to 5 probably in 2042-2043. That does not mean we will not see others of lesser intensity between 2018 and 2042/43.

Hurricane Michael Update: Current 85mph Rapid Intensification Predicted


As anticipate Hurricane Michael is showing signs of continued strength with each update. Current wind speed 85mph. Rapid intensification is predicted. Current forecast is for a Category 3 (115+ mph) storm at landfall.  If you are in the path you do not have much time to prepare. This storm is gaining forward speed as it strengthens.

[Hurricane Center] At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. (read more)

For those in the cone of uncertainty, Florida Governor Rick Scott has provided an extensive update on state preparations – SEE HERE – More information is available on the Florida Emergency Website – SEE HERE.

Due to the speed of this storm, and the rapid intensification strength, all interests in the coastal area should immediate rush to completion their hurricane and storm preparation plans.  Tuesday is likely the only day to prepare your property and personal effects.  Do not delay.  Pay attention to the warnings and guidance of local officials.

If you live in an evacuation zone be prepared to respond as soon as instructed.  Take this storm seriously.  Slight variations in the storm’s path can create major changes within any impacted region.

Head’s Up – Tropical Storm Michael Forecast To Become Hurricane…


Coastal residents of Northern Florida (Panhandle), Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should keep an eye on tropical storm Michael.  The storm is anticipated to become a Hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico sometime late Tuesday/Wednesday.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. (More from hurricane center)

Katla Building to a Major Event?


They claim that all the world’s nations combined pumped nearly 38.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, according to new international calculations on global emissions published in the journal Nature Climate Change. That is 32 kilotons per day when one volcano Katla, which is a huge hidden volcano 650 feet beneath the ice cap in Iceland, is emitting 20 kilotons of C02 every day. There are only two volcanoes worldwide that are known to emit more CO2, and now scientists are concerned that Katla may be headed toward a major eruption. Obviously, the UN should be imposing a tax on Iceland for all this added Co2.

Katla has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1100 years. There were eruptions which have been documented in the years 920 and 1612, and from 1821 to 1823. These latter eruptions in the 19th century helped to cool the planet contributing to the mini ice age at that time. The last eruption that actually broke through the ice cap occurred in 1918. There have been subglacial flood events in 1955, 1999 and 2010-2011 that melted ice but it did not break the surface. These events do create flooding as the ice melts. Volcanic activity produced two eruptions in 2010 at Eyjafjallajokull, on March 20 and April 14. The second eruption created the giant ash cloud over Europe which diverted air traffic.

The 1918 ash plume was documented to have reached heights of 14 km. That event looked like a mushroom cloud from an atomic bomb. It is hard to draw a conclusive model since the majority of eruptions only melt ice beneath the surface. The best we can do with an approximation for the events that break through the surface puts it in 2020-2021 for the next ideal event. But the data series is not definitive on this event. It does appear that Katla has become active again since 2010 and is building to a climax. This could also be an event that contributes to global cooling as we saw during the 19th century