Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jan 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
The explosive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano was massive. It would have covered much of California engulfing from San Francisco down to Los Angeles. They are still trying to figure out how big this event was yet it was certainly one of the largest to have taken place in modern times. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is measured from 1 to 8. Pinatubo, which is considered similar to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai eruption, scored a 6 on the index. However, Pinatubo produced an eruption column of gas and ash that rose 40 km into the atmosphere, whereas this Tongan eruption was at least 20 km high.
Such events can cause what is known as a Volcanic Winter by the ash blocking the sun. That is what has taken place many times throughout recorded history. They called the year 1816 – the year without a summer. This 19th-century disaster, played out during 1816 when the weather in Europe and North America entered a volcanic winter with widespread crop failures resulting in famine followed by plague. The dust from the eruption of Mount Tambora, which had erupted in early April 1815, had shrouded the entire globe blocking the sunlight. This sent the world into darkness and 1816 did not have a normal summer. It even snowed in New York City during July.
The ash cloud of Tambora also affected the sky not just during the day but also caused the moon to be hazy and dark in appearance. In John Crome’s Moonrise on the Yare (c.1811–6) the moon is visible through the clouds just behind the buildings in the middle of the painting but barely. In the bottom left corner, we see a person working on a small boat in darkness.
It was about one year before the effects were actually felt. The weather in 1816 saw spring arrive as usual. Then as summer was to begin, cold temperatures returned. There were places where the sky appeared permanently dark and overcast. Crops failed due to the lack of sunlight and food shortages were reported in the United States, and throughout Europe. There was a feeling of doom that the world was coming to an end.
The Year Without a Summer also inspired Mary Shelley who was just 18 when she dreamed up her story of a “pale student of unhallowed arts” and the “hideous phantasm of a man” he created. She was a friend of the author Lord Byron who challenged her to write a ghost story. Her seminal classic of gothic horror, Frankenstein, was inspired during this period. Her first edition was one of 500 copies of this novel printed in 1818. Today, they are worth probably $1.5 million+.
It took more than a century before anyone really understood the reason for the Year without a Summer that it was a volcanic winter caused by the eruption of an enormous volcano on a remote island in the Indian Ocean. But what is significant here is that it took nearly one year for the ash to blank the globe. It was not instantaneous. Here, the blast was huge and it was visible from space. So we may not know about any possible Volcanic Winter for up to one year. When we look at our Food Index, note that the volatility began here in 2022 and will continue to rise into 2024. The mismanagement of Biden and this COVID agenda which has disrupted the supply chain combined with Bill Gates becoming now the largest farmland owner in the USA intent on disrupting the food supply further with his synthetic beef for climate change, throw in volcanic winter and the risk of war, and prices could rise further as supply shrinks.
We can see that Wheat jumped 350% during World War I from 1914 into 1919. Here we have the convergence of deliberate disruption of the food supply to further Gates’ vision of eliminating beef production, the advent of potential global war, and the serious risk of a Volcanic Winter especially if we get yet another massive eruption.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Jan 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
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Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, which is a Submarine volcano, has erupted sending tsunamis off in every direction. The eruption has not yet been classified. However, it has been building since the March 16, 2009 (2009.205) eruption. There have been four eruptions since then and it does appear to be closer to a Pi cycle.
If we look at the volcanic activity in the entire region we can see this was then due to begin rising from 2019. There tends to be a general cyclical wave of 68 years looking at Tambora and Krakatoa which were 1815 and 1883. Kelud is one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia that has major eruptions from time to time. The first explosion was around 1586. It had an eruption in 1951. The next target was 2019 marking the eruption of Tangkuban Perahu Volcano but a few months before Anak Krakatau became one of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia.
The key here appears to be that there are multiple eruptions of a lesser magnitude in 1815 and 1883 so they were not eruptions that were by themselves. The risk from volcanoes of a volcanic winter ahead would emerge when we see more coordinated eruptions that could lead to one major eruption that blocks the sun.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 102 Comments
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear gave a terrible update about the devastation in the aftermath of the horrific tornadoes that hit overnight Friday into Saturday morning. According to the Governor, more than 70 are dead in a candle factory alone in Mayfield, and the death toll is expected to continue climbing as the list of missing people throughout the state is too long to fathom.
An official death count has not been released, but Beshear, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, said at least 80 Kentuckians were feared dead with that number expected to rise. “I know we’ve lost more than 80 Kentuckians. That number is going to exceed more than 100,” he said. “This is the deadliest tornado event we’ve ever had.” WATCH:
Additional deaths have been reported outside of Kentucky including six at an Amazon warehouse in Illinois, four in Tennessee, two in Arkansas and two in Missouri. More drone footage of the devastation was released earlier today. [See Below]
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 11, 2021 | Sundance | 271 Comments
The town of Mayfield, Kentucky has been absolutely devastated by at least one of several tornadoes that tore through six states overnight. The video footage of the area shows widespread devastation, and the Kentucky governor is now reporting at least 70 people have been killed.
All Treepers in the region please check in and let us know how y’all are doing. Our prayers are with everyone who was in the path of this massive storm system. There are resources coming from all over the Southeast and Midwest into the region. The images are jaw-dropping.
(Reuters) – A devastating swarm of tornadoes ripped through six U.S. states, killing more than 70 people in Kentucky and leaving a trail of destroyed homes and businesses along a path that stretched more than 200 miles, officials said on Saturday.
Dozens were feared dead at a candle factory in western Kentucky where about 110 people were working when a powerful tornado ripped through the facility late on Friday, causing the roof to cave in. VIDEO:
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said 40 of the 110 workers had been rescued from the factory so far. “The level of devastation is unlike anything that I have ever seen,” Beshear said of the damage caused by the collection of twisters, with the primary tornado traveling more than 227 miles (365 km) across his state.
[…] The genesis of the tornado outbreak was a series of overnight thunderstorms, including a super cell storm that formed in northeast Arkansas. That storm moved from Arkansas and Missouri and into Tennessee and Kentucky.
“Unfortunately it produced a couple of deadly tornadoes along the way. One of them may have been a long-track tornado,” Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Roger Edward said. “The killer tornado was part of that.” (read more)
Almighty God, You are our healer. Our trust is in Your grace and power. We are blessed in Your name.
With You all rescue, recovery and healing are possible. We ask Your comfort upon those who have suffered such great tragedy.
We pray for Your comfort to relieve the anxiety of all who have been impacted. Let Your strength keep all the rescue workers going and find any who are lost.
Provide Your Holy Spirit to restore those who have suffered so much. Amen.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Sep 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, if I understood your forecasts on volcanos, you said this would increase post-2020 but the big one was not until after 2032. Is this all hype about La Palma Volcano?
REPLY: There is normally a rise in volcanic activity with solar minimum. There is a plain correlation with that. I have written about how Napoleon was defeated by a Volcanic Winter. This eruption of La Palma Volcano seems to be on target. There is roughly a 22-year cycle to that particular volcano.
The known eruptions have been 2021 (Sep – ongoing), 1971, 1949, 1712, 1677-1678, 1646, and 1585. This volcano conforms to the 8.6-year frequency. It has been 51.6 years from 1871 to 2021 so it is on target. This one can build bigger. There is a risk it could extend into 2022 since this is the 6th wave from 1712.
There are a number of volcanos on the watch list right now. The main threat of volcanos is creating volcanic winters.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 27, 2021 | Sundance | 120 Comments
This seems a little odd to me. Citing the time it takes to implement contra-flow traffic as a problem, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell stated there is not enough time for the city of New Orleans to execute a mandatory evacuation. Additionally, she is asking all residents who do not evacuate to shelter in place for Hurricane Ida.
Contra-flow traffic is the process of turning inbound lanes into outbound lanes and depending on the metropolitan area takes around 8 hrs for local and state DOT to get set up. The mayor is asking for a voluntary evacuation saying “time is not on our side.” “The City can not issue a mandatory evacuation because we do not have time, Cantrell continued. WATCH:
Yikes… and Biden’s team is running FEMA.
Additional News Report…. WATCH:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 27, 2021 | Sundance | 147 Comments
Ida is currently a tropical storm headed into the Gulf of Mexico. However, the conditions are perfect for Ida to quickly become a major hurricane as it heads toward the Louisiana coastal region. Everyone along the gulf coast from East Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and western Alabama should be making preparations right now. Do not delay.
In the background several Civilian Emergency Response Teams (CERT) have been activated. Due to the confluence of events, everyone is taking this storm very seriously. Any Treeper in the coastal area of Louisiana and Mississippi should be taking preparatory action today. Those in the forecast areas are strongly advised to pay close attention to local officials and heed all evacuation orders. [National Hurricane Center]
Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Everything is replaceable, except you and your family. We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Ida Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.
Right now you are in control. Have a solid plan, work that plan – stay busy, and don’t get caught up in the hysteria. Try to avoid national media hype. Stay updated via your local news stations. Sunday morning looks like the key day impact zones will be identified. Reach out to your neighbors; touch-base and check to see if they are okay or need anything. Community restoration begins before the storm arrives. Look out for each-other.
Additionally, I hate to note this, but Joe Biden is in charge of FEMA… So plan accordingly.
Regarding any evacuation plan, please pay attention to your local officials who will be coordinating with state Dept. of Transportation. As the path and impact zone of the storm becomes more predictable your local officials will alert to best route(s) for evacuation.
For those in the cone of uncertainty; remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead. Plan when to make the best decision on any evacuation (if needed) consider Sunday morning the decision time-frame. As a general rule: take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.
DAY ONE (Friday)
- Determine Your Risk
- Make a Written Plan
- Develop and Evacuation Plan
- Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
- Withdraw cash based on plan/need.
- Get gas and storm supplies
DAY TWO (Saturday)
- Get Storm Update
- Assemble and Purchase Hurricane Supplies
- Contact Insurance Company – Updates
- Secure Important Papers.
- Update/upload your phone data.
- Strengthen and Secure Your Home
- Discuss Evacuation Decision with your Family.
- Fill freezer with 3/4 full water jugs.
DAY THREE (Sunday/ Morning)
- Get Storm Update
- Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update
- Finish last minute preparation
- Plan for a minimum of THREE DAYS without power
- Assist Your Neighbors
- If Needed – Evacuate Your Family
Communication is important. Update your friends and family contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.
Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.
Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status. Fill car with gasoline. Review prescriptions, refill if needed.
Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storms path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.
Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.
One possible proactive measure is to make a hotel reservation further inland that you would consider evacuating to. Follow updates of the storms’ progress; make reservations tonight or tomorrow if determined; you can always cancel if not needed. It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance. Being proactive reduces stress. Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go. Trust me, it’s worth it. Protect your family. Make the booking decision in the next 24 hrs.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 5, 2021 | Sundance | 39 Comments
The critical area of the rubble pile from the collapsed Surfside condominium building can now be reached. The original collapse happened at 1:30am when most were sleeping and the 12-floors of stacked master bedroom suites was unfortunately located next to the unstable elements of the building that did not collapse.
At 10:30pm last evening the remaining building was brought down with a controlled demolition. Now the most important area of the original collapse, the areas containing the rubble of those master suites, will be able to be excavated. As recovery workers began work at 1:00am this morning the focus is on that area. They anticipate a much faster recovery of missing persons.
During a press conference today an additional two bodies were pulled from the area. The death toll now stands at 27 with 115 people still unaccounted. The recovery workers face a grueling task in the next 36 hours; however, fortunately Tropical Storm Elsa has taken a more westerly track and the recovery work looks like it will continue unimpeded on the East coast of Florida. Update from Florida Governor Ron Desantis:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 4, 2021 | Sundance | 43 Comments
Florida officials held an extensive briefing today to update on the planned demolition of the unstable elements of the Surfside condominium building so that rescue and recovery work on the collapsed building can begin again. Compounding the issues is the looming arrival of Tropical Storm Elsa; however, fortunately the storm appears to have taken a slightly more westward track and should be minimal for the Surfside, Florida, region.
According to local officials the demolition of the remaining structure will likely take place later today. In the interim the search and recovery work has been paused as explosive experts prepare to bring down the unstable remnant of the 12-story building.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis spoke at the beginning of the press conference emphasizing the arrival of Tropical Storm Elsa should be watched carefully. Elsa now appears to be a west coast of Florida issue and will likely skirt up the western coastal area along the Gulf of Mexico. The entire South-West coast of Florida will likely see varying effects from a very strong tropical storm Tuesday and Wednesday.
Current forecasts put the entry track of TS Elsa slightly north of Tampa; however, Elsa is following the same predictive path from Hurricane Charley in 2004. Charley was predicted to come ashore just North of Tampa, but instead it made a quick turn over northern Sanibel Island and came ashore in Port Charlotte. Everyone on the west coast of Florida should pay attention [NHC Advisory Here]
You can never be over-prepared for dramatic weather events. If you take small actions now you can eliminate big stresses later.