Posted originally on Jun 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
May’s private payrolls based on ADP estimates are the lowest since March 2023. Private payrolls rose only 37,000 last month, far beneath April’s addition of 60,000 and a far cry from the Dow Jones forecast of 110,000.
The financial sector rose by 20,000, leisure and hospitality saw an increase of 38,000, and construction added 6,000. Still, that was not enough to offset the losses on other sectors. Professional and business services shed 17,000 jobs, education and health services lost 13,000, goods-producing industries shed 2,000, natural resources and mining lost 5,000, and manufacturing was down by 3,000.
Mid-sized corporations gained 49,000 employees, while small businesses with fewer than 50 workers lost 13,000, and large firms with over 500 employees lost 3,000 positions. Raises grew by 4.5% while wages for job changers rose 7%.
Donald Trump is blaming the Fed. “ADP NUMBER OUT!!! ‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!” Trump said on his Truth Social site.
Europe has kept rates artificially low, and it has done absolutely nothing to prevent its economy from contracting. They destroyed pension systems and the banking sector, and still got no economic growth. Rates near zero don’t create investment when there’s no confidence and excessive regulation. It’s the same in reverse: high rates don’t stop inflation when the cause is geopolitical, not consumer-driven or based on demand.
Manipulating interest rates is no longer an efficient tool, as the issue is structural. We are in a phase of stagflation where we see rising costs without real growth. This is not driven by regulation, shortages, and geopolitical tensions. I have warned that history will turn around and blame Donald Trump for implementing tariffs. The tariffs themselves are not the cause of the current state of stagflation, but it is the easiest culprit for politicians and analysts to cite without having a deeper knowledge of the inner workings of the economy.
Only academics believe the Smoot-Hawley tariffs caused the Great Depression. Tariffs were merely the reaction, not the cause, to an overall decline in the global economy. War and reparations have left nations indebted to the point of financial failure.
The entire argument that the Smoot-Hawley Act caused the Great Depression is propaganda. It’s used to denounce free trade and blame Republicans, but the truth is that the collapse was already in motion from 1927, and Smoot-Hawley did not go into effect until June 17, 1930. You had sovereign debt defaults, currency crises, and collapsing capital formation. Tariffs were merely one variable of a much bigger problem. In fact, the US already had tariffs in place for over a century prior to the Smoot-Hawley Act, as that piece of legislation merely updated existing tariffs. Trade was on the decline long before tariffs.
The US was heading into a period of stagflation long before Trump took office. Franklin D. Roosevelt criticized Smoot-Hawley during his 1932 campaign and blamed Republican leaders for being unable to “stimulate foreign trade.”
“”Other governments are to an ever-increasing extent winning their share of international trade by negotiated reciprocal trade agreements. If American agricultural and industrial interests are to retain their deserved place in this trade, the American government must be in a position to bargain for the place with other governments by rapid and decisive negotiation… If the American government is not in a position to make fair offers for fair opportunities, its trade will be superseded. If it is not in a position at a given moment rapidly to alter the terms on which it is willing to deal with other countries, it cannot adequately protect its trade against discriminations and against bargains injurious to its interests.”
This paved the way for the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934, which provided the president with the power to negotiate bilateral tariff-reduction agreements without requiring Congressional approval. Roosevelt then engaged in reciprocity agreements based on mutual agreements where nations agreed to lower tariffs on each other’s goods, as Trump is doing today. Yet, today, consumers are wary of the future and less likely to spend.
Every negative piece of data will be blamed on the Trump Administration. The media will proclaim that jobs are fleeing the US due to Trump’s policies, but the trend was already in motion.
Posted originally on CTH on June 4, 2025 | Sundance
Today, President Trump signed an executive order [SEE HERE] restricting the entry of foreign nationals from a number of countries identified as national security and public safety risks. The goal is to prevent terrorists and other dangerous individuals from entering the United States and to pressure foreign governments to improve cooperation and information-sharing about their citizens.
Full Suspension: Nationals from 12 countries—including Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen—are now subject to a full suspension of entry, both for immigrants and most nonimmigrant visas.
Partial Suspension: Nationals from 7 other countries—including Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela—face a partial suspension, affecting specific visa categories and requiring reduced visa validity. WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on June 4, 2025 | Sundance
It is at moments like this when I wish General Michael Flynn had not comprehensively compromised his ability to provide advice and counsel to President Donald Trump. This is great advice shared via Twitter:
“1. While most of America remains blissfully uninformed by our establishment press, the world’s two greatest superpowers are being manipulated by Dark Forces inside and outside our government, into a major military confrontation that no country wants, and no sane person would ever want.
2. I have no role in the Trump Administration, but over a long career in the active uniformed military, specifically military intelligence, I have made it a point to cultivate many sources of information around the world. From what I can piece together, I want to share my deep concerns about who is behind this march to war, and my recommendations for how our nation and the West can avoid a major military confrontation with Russia.”
“3. I believe that the American Deep State is staffed by those with a deep, visceral, and irrational hatred for Russia, and these persons have conspired to box in President Trump’s decision making through the Russiagate Hoax. During the time the Soviet Union was expanding and infiltrating our government, I was an outspoken anti-communist, but, despite the lies told by our Deep State, Russia is not the Soviet Union and Putin is not Stalin. Even today, years after the Russiagate Hoax has been exposed, President Trump’s efforts to bring peace are met with resistance. The Establishment Press, deeply influenced and even sometimes controlled by our Deep State, labeled President Trump and those who work for him “Putin’s Puppets” to goad him into taking unwarranted and aggressive steps against Russia. These voices from the establishment press reflect the views of the Deep State, not the American People, and not the MAGA movement, and should be completely disregarded, if not mocked.”
“4. During almost all of the post-World War II period, and certainly since the establishment of the CIA in 1947, these unelected dark establishment forces have acted to destabilize the world, bringing death, famine, assassinations, violence, coups, riots, revolutions, and destruction to our planet. Currently, these forces are working to provoke Russia into a major — perhaps a final — military conflict with the West.
5. This provocation has many forms. Most recently, it involves the surprise drone attack on the Russian federation strategic arsenal, said to affect 40 bombers, or about a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Since Russian and American strategic bombers are generally required by agreement to be visible to satellite surveillance, never before has anyone engaged in an attack on these visible targets. If Russian bombers can be attacked with impunity, so can American bombers. By this action, the Ukrainian Government has not just weakened Russia, it has jeopardized America. Thus, those in the Ukrainian government who ordered these strikes have made themselves enemies not just of Russia, but of the United States. Making matters worse, this unwarranted attack was followed by Ukrainian attacks on the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Russia and Crimea.
6. I do not believe that the recent escalation against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet was authorized by or coordinated with President Trump. Rather, it is my view that the Deep State is now acting outside of the control of the elected leadership of our nation. I believe that these persons in our Deep State are engaged in a deliberate effort to provoke Russia into a major confrontation with the West, including the United States. The time is now to take aggressive action against those who abuse their authority as government employees to manipulate the elected leadership of our nation.
7. Growing up in an Irish Democrat family in Rhode Island, I was only about five when John Kennedy was assassinated, but our family viewed John Kennedy as a hero. Not just for my family, one of our most beloved Presidents, John F. Kennedy, in 1961, found himself manipulated by earlier versions of these same Deep State forces when they attempted to manipulate President Kennedy to launch Air Force planes to attack Cuba after the failed invasion, resulting in an open conflict with both Cuba and the Soviet Union. In President Kennedy’s June 1963 speech at American University declaring his vision of peace with the Soviet Union, he declared himself to be an enemy of this Deep State, which by all indications then retaliated by participating in his assassination five months later in Dallas. The American Deep State is not only a threat to peace, but a threat to the President.
8. President Trump has already faced at least two assassination attempts. If there is one person who I believe has the character and love for our nation to rid our government of these forces, it is President Trump. After the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, President Trump displayed the type of personal courage that those of us who have served in the military deeply admire. With great affection for the President, I now urge him to risk the wrath of the Deep State once again by taking actions to purge enemies of our nation within our agencies and departments. Removing such persons from power is absolutely necessary to achieve the type of peace he described during his campaign and the beginning of his Administration.
9. Once President Kennedy realized he was being manipulated, and opposed because he sought peace, he removed Allen Dulles as Director of Central Intelligence, and several of his assistants. I urge President Trump to immediately clean house of any in government who had prior knowledge of or participated in any way in the Ukrainian attack on the Russian federation strategic bombers, and to go further by immediately declaring an end to any support for the Ukraine War. President Trump is right: this is not “his” War. I urge him to recall all open and covert military and other government personnel from Ukraine. I urge him to have all those personnel removed and interrogated by the FBI or the military to learn of their possible participation in unauthorized military activities. Any Americans who have aided and abetted Ukraine’s attacks should be investigated for violation of American law, and prosecuted as necessary.
10. I also believe President Trump should distance himself from certain Western leaders such as German Chancellor Fred Merz, who have acted and spoken in an irresponsible manner with respect to the Ukraine War. If there are countries in Europe who wish to provide military assistance to Ukraine, that is their concern, and they should not be surprised by President Putin’s response to their actions against Russia. If such leaders want to lead their nations to war by persisting in such irresponsible behavior, they will go it alone.
11. I urge President Trump to also distance himself from demonstrated war mongers in our own government, chief among whom is U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham. Those who love wars fought by others are no friends of America, and have no entitlement to be friends of the President.
12. Finally, I urge the American people to stand prayerfully and resolutely with President Trump as he cleans house and acts in pursuit of the type of peace which President Kennedy embraced. Peace is not the normal state of man. Freedom requires a price be paid by every generation. It is time to recommit our nation to both.” ~ Gen. Michael Flynn
The advice is great and aligns with the majority of what the MAGA base would happily support.
Not to take away from the message, but brutal honesty also requires genuine consideration. As such, it should be noted that Gen Michael Flynn is well aware President Trump has an opening for National Security Advisor, a position currently being filled, quite well, by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Flynn’s post-term-1 Achilles heel has always been his financial reliance on a large popular audience. This is a large popular message.
At moments like this, I wish Gen Michael Flynn had not compromised his ability to provide advice and counsel to President Donald Trump.
Cut through all the chaff and countermeasures deployed by the professional DC system intended to convolute and keep Trump and Putin at arm’s length, and you can see the outline of what we have discussed on these pages for several months.
There are geopolitical benefits to President Trump and President Putin having a strategic alignment. However, the elements against them are massive, entrenched and highly Machiavellian.
President Trump shares the following message after a phone call with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin.
…”It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields.”…
As Ukraine officials huddle together with their co-dependent enablers in the U.S. Senate, the implied message from the second half of Trump’s statement is for the senators to stop messing with U.S. foreign policy because Putin can help solve the Iran problem.
Posted originally on Jun 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The United States has quietly redeployed troops to Syria as the nation adjusts to the installed temporary government. Ahead of their arrival, around 1,200 Syrian military members completed a graduation ceremony for the 56th Division of the newly formed Syrian army. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham units are the primary fighters who have fought against Assad for many years. Other Syrian units are linked to Turkey, in addition to the Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Free Army, which are both supported by the United States.
“The course is part of a military, physical, and tactical training program aimed at raising the readiness of fighters and enhancing their combat efficiency, in accordance with the approved plan for qualifying the armed forces,” the Syrian Defense Ministry said. Maj.-Gen. Mohammed Khair Hassan, the new deputy defense minister, was previously sanctioned by the US for human rights abuses against the Kurds. This comes as no surprise as the CIA flipped the current Syrian President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist, to align with the West. Ahmed al-Hayes, the new commander of the 86th Division, was also previously sanctioned by the US.
Syria can now rebuild a larger army as it has support from US-allied Turkey and Qatar. Uyghurs who escaped China are now volunteering to fight for Syria. Some of the Uyghurs are supposed members of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) led by Abu Muhammad al-Turkistani (translation: father of Muhammad the Turkistani). Turkey has funded these rebels, and that became possible only because Israel destroyed Hezbollah.
The US initially did not want foreign troops fighting within the newly formed army, but has since changed its stance, particularly for the Uyghurs, who cannot return to China and will be forced into loyalty. Although the US claims it is removing some military bases from Syria, the truth of the matter is that they have already had a hand in reshaping the new Syrian militia.
“The US has endorsed a Syrian government plan to absorb thousands of former rebel and foreign fighters, many of whom once fought against the Assad regime, into the country’s restructured national army,” explained Tom Barrack, the US envoy to Syria. We now have former ISIS members fighting alongside US troops. Barrack is also the US envoy to Turkey. “What I can assure you is that our current Syria policy will not be close to the Syria policy of the last 100 years, because none of these have worked,” he told reporters.
Despite the prior sanctions on current commanders for human rights abuses against the Kurds, Barrack insists that the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a “very important factor” and a US ally. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan dismantled the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and has accused the SDF of “stalling” to integrate into the Syrian militia.
Erdogan has the largest military in the Middle East, and in fact, is the second-largest military force in NATO behind the US. Turkey has yet to display the full force of its power, but Erdogan has dreams of restoring Turkey to the glory of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey is primarily Sunni, as is Qatar, and now Syria, now that Shia Assad has been ousted. There are still Shia Alawite among the ruling elite in Syria, for now.
Erdogan believes Israel is a threat to Turkish stability, calling its current actions the “Greater Israel” project and accusing the nation of attempting to extend its power throughout the Middle East by seizing Gaza. The land of Israel once belonged to the Ottoman Empire. He has criticized the UN and fellow NATO members for arming Israel. Erdogan believes he is the voice for all Arab nations and has described his “neo-Ottoman” aspirations. The SDF forces have said they are on good terms with Israel, which is precisely what Erdogan fears as he does not want the Kurds to align with Israel.
Erdogan spoke favorably of Syria in 2024, stating Turkey would not allow the nation to fracture. “We cannot allow Syria’s land to be divided once again. We cannot accept any provocation to prevent Syrians from returning to their homes. We will not stand by and watch as those who are emboldened by foreign powers try to set the region on fire. We seek security, peace, and prosperity for everyone. Once again, I congratulate the brotherly Syrian people for this magnificent revolution,” the Turkish president stated.
Now, they can get the pipeline from Qatar to cut off Russia’s energy sales to Europe. The US may be looking at this from a business perspective, but Turkey sees this as a step toward neo-Ottoman aspirations. Socrates predicted that the Syrian civil war would begin in 2011 and last for 13 years. The next major target on the war model for Syria is 2027. Turkey and the US clearly are not aligned when it comes to foreign policy in the Middle East, but are currently working as an alliance to integrate the likes of jihadists and Kurds to compose a new military stronghold in Syria.
Posted originally on CTH on June 3, 2025 | Sundance
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem announced today, the wife and five children of Mohamed Sabry Soliman have been taken into custody by ICE agents for questioning and may face deportation. Soliman, 45, is an illegal alien from Egypt and is charged with 16 counts of attempted first-degree murder after a brutal attack on Sunday in Boulder, Colorado. He attacked a group of pro-Israeli demonstrators with a “makeshift flamethrower” and Molotov cocktails.
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