The Evolving Middle East War


Posted originally on Sep 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Israel Map

There will be a war in the Middle East, and many are looking at this as the End Times from three different religions. The majority of Israelis of all faiths support a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has been firing rockets for almost a year now, and they have turned the majority of Israelis against them. The Lebanese government has included Hezbollah ministers, and they have surrendered the safety of their own people to Hezbollah, thereby endorsing war with Israel. The deep resentment that festers in the Middle East I do not see as ever being resolved. When that becomes the reality, then war is inevitable.

Israeli Iran Palestine

Hezbollah has assumed that Iran would rush to join the party. But Putin has been warning them that the time is not right. Putin understands the game. He may be hoping Trump is elected to shut down World War III. However, the model concerning market activity suggests that things may not pan out as many have assumed.

While October is a key near-term target, the major target will be March/April next year.

10% Cap on Credit Card Fees?


Posted originally on Sep 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

CreditCardDebt.Chart_

APR fees on credit cards have never been higher, reaching an average of 24.92% as of September 2024 in the United States. In fact, credit card interest rates have not been beneath 10% since the early 90s. Consumer debt has never been higher and countless households have fallen into a snowball situation where they simply accumulate more debt in a failed attempt to pay off the old. Donald Trump has offered the most extreme solution presented by a politician thus far – capping credit card interest fees at 10%.

Bernie Sanders once proposed a 15% cap to the shock of many. Biden attempted to implement an $8 cap on late fees alone but was prevented from doing so. Banks have continued raising their fees and interest rates as more households fall behind.

Prior to the pandemic, Americans paid $120 billion annually in credit card interest fees from 2018 to 2020, amounting to $1,000 annually per household. In 2022, consumers were paying $105 billion in interest as it has become the main cost behind having a credit card. Rates on credit cards have doubled in a mere decade from 12.9% in 2013 to 22.8% in 2023.

CreditCardDelinquency_byClass

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released data in August indicating that American credit card debt reached a new high of $1.14 trillion. A separate report from TransUnion has found that the average American is carrying $6,329 in personal credit card debt, a 4.8% uptick from last year. Americans have amassed over $250 billion in the past two years alone amid record inflation. Bankrate reported that 46% of cardholders cannot pay off their monthly credit card payments, up 7% from last year.

Banks are naturally against this cap. Those in disagreement believe banks will be reluctant to lend and tighten their requirements. To some extent, that may not be a negative. Living within your means has completely changed under Bidenomics and everyone is adjusting to the new cost of living. In the meantime, people need to catch up to get back on their feet before the debt vortex sucks them into a hole that becomes nearly impossible to climb out of.

Consumers have been forced to pay for basic necessities on credit due to the astounding rise in prices for basics like energy, food, and rent. “While working Americans catch up, we’re going to put a temporary cap on credit-card interest rates,” Trump said at the rally in New York. “We can’t let them make 25 and 30 percent.” Now, Trump is proposing a temporary cap. We permit countless stimulus packages that never stimulate the economy and hand out funds recklessly to help those on hard times. Yet, no one has proposed temporarily capping credit card fees to give consumers time to pay off their debts. The banks are still profiting, albeit less.

No one will profit if consumers default on their personal debts and they are sent to collectors never to be paid. This solution could give households adequate time to adjust their personal finance strategies.

War is the Greatest Threat to or Future


Posted originally on Sep 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2024_09_25_20_50_58_Jamie_Dimon_says_an_evil_axis_of_countries_threatening_war_is_the_biggest_risk

QUESTION: It is becoming obvious Jamie Dimon seems to be following you. Whatever you say, he says a few days later. He has come out and said that the greatest threat is “not inflation, a recession, or AI taking over humanity; rather, it’s rising geopolitical tensions that have already flared up into armed conflicts around the world.” He and you are the only people sounding that alarm. At Davos, he even said Trump was right about the border and about NATO. Do you guys have coffee together?

JG

JFK on War

ANSWER: I would be glad to have coffee with Jamie. No, I do not speak to him. He is a pretty smart guy who can see the events himself. Who tunes into Socrates? I am never at liberty to say. I’m not the CEO of Telegram. Confidentiality is our motto. They tried that with me. It didn’t work.

Fani Willis’ Boyfriend on the Run – U.S. Marshalls Hunting Nathan Wade


Posted originally on the CTH on September 26, 2024 | Sundance 

It’s likely Fani told Nathan she was going to say, “she dindunuffin’,” and he better disappear.   Apparently, the U.S. Marshals are looking for Nathan Wade after he has refused to accept a subpoena for testimony.

ATLANTA — The U.S. House Judiciary Committee has now tapped the U.S. Marshals to help obtain testimony from former Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade.

They’ve taken the step after Wade failed to appear for an earlier scheduled hearing, according to a copy of a letter accompanying a subpoena obtained by 11Alive. Now, a committee spokesman said they’ve asked the Marshals service to serve Wade with a subpoena to testify.

[…] “Nathan Wade’s evasion of service is extremely unusual and will require the Committee to spend U.S. tax dollars to locate him.”

The subpoena, signed September 20, requests Wade’s testimony at a September 26 hearing in Washington, DC.  Nathan Wade did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes, now a private attorney representing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in a different legal matter, argued the Judiciary Committee’s decision was politically motivated.  “This seems to be nothing but political grandstanding right here before the election,” said Barnes.

[…] Barnes said he anticipated Wade would be asked detailed questions about the ongoing Fulton County prosecution of former President Trump and sent a letter requesting that he be allowed to be present during the interview so he could “make objections if they got into issue that were privileged.” (read more)

REPORT: DOJ Likely to Announce Indictments Against Iranian Suspects for Hacking President Trump’s Electronic Communications


Posted originally on the CTH on September 26, 2024 | Sundance

This stuff is so predictable.  A person would think the DOJ-NSD would make an effort not to just reuse their prior playbook.  Alas, specifically because the IC silos are run by bureaucratic idiots, they just end up rehashing anything that works.

On September 19th CTH said“I’ll just casually sit back and wait to see what the DOJ NATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION (DOJ-NSD) come up with next. Presumably -if I am correct- we will see some patsy Iranian group named, labeled and blamed for the hackinglikely around the end of this month. However, factually the “hacking” per se’, is probably nothing more than the Biden group Intelligence Community (FBI/DOJ/DNI) exploiting their political surveillance control systems.” {LINK}

Cue Dramatic Music… 

TODAY IN DC:  A grand jury has indicted multiple Iranians on charges related to hacking Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.

The federal charges stem from an Iranian operation that allegedly stole internal Trump campaign communications this summer, according to three people familiar with the investigation who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it.

The names of the defendants and the specific criminal charges were not immediately available. A grand jury secretly approved the indictment on Thursday afternoon. The Justice Department is expected to announce the charges as soon as Friday.

[…] This month, U.S. security agencies released an unusual statement saying Iranians sent material stolen from the former president’s campaign to people linked to Biden’s reelection team (which later morphed into Harris’ campaign). The statement said there is no sign the recipients responded.

Google’s cybersecurity arm has said Iranians tried to hack into Biden’s campaign as well, but there are no indications those attempts succeeded. (read more)

√ Iran in 2024 has replaced Russia in 2016.
√ Devlin Barrett in 2024 has replaced Ali Watkins in 2016.
√ “Google cybersecurity” in 2024 has replaced Crowdstrike in 2016.

Stop me when you realize you have seen this movie before.

At the end of this IC rainbow, it’s the same destination.  The Trump campaign is under constant surveillance and the IC is obfuscating Iran as the legal predicate, the justification for the mechanisms used by the Biden administration as surveillance.

Senate Homeland Security and Govt Affairs Committee Releases Interim Report on Butler Assassination Attempt of President Trump


Posted originally on the CTH on September 25, 2024 | Sundance 

The Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee (SHSGAC) wants everyone to know that the Secret Service really made a lot of mistakes in Butler, Pennsylvania, leading to the attempted assassination of President Trump.

Multiple systemic failures of U.S. Secret Service protocols took place.  Ultimately, mistakes were made.

[READ REPORT HERE]

The Committee finds that USSS failures in planning, communications, security, and allocation of resources for the July 13, 2024 Butler rally were foreseeable, preventable, and directly related to the events resulting in the assassination attempt that day,” the committee reported.

“The Committee also finds that siloed communications and coordination problems between federal, state, and local law enforcement officials remain unaddressed and were a contributing factor to the failures at the July 13 Butler rally,” it added. ~ John Solomon

The Senate report comes on the heels of the Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, telling President Trump that U.S. intelligence has identified Iran as the most likely group attempting to organize death threats and activities against him.

Zelensky at the UN – No Peace Talks Just Conquer Russia


Video Zelensky’s Victory Plan is World War III. He wants unrestricted access to long-range missiles and to attack Russia on a major scale. He is telling everyone that peace talks are out of the question. This is the time to destroy Russia. Everything he says has been just a lie. There were peace negotiations, and both sides were ready to sign. His Victory Plan depends entirely on the West handing him long-range missiles.

Ukraine_Hryvnia Y Array 5 17 24

If Putin does not respond forcefully, he will be overthrown, and the Russian Neocons will seize control, and our computer shows a flatline on Ukraine until 2027. It will be wiped out. I have never seen this pattern show up in any country in our modern era.

Zelenskyy Johnson

Borris Johnson flew to Kiev and told Zelensky he was NOT ALLOWED to have peace with Russia. This has been about creating World War III so they can default on all debts, institute the new central bank digital currency, impose Biometric ID, and restrict travel worldwide.

Merkel_Minsk_Buy_Time_to Prepare for wart

Ukraine signed the Minsk Agreement. The Donbas were to be allowed to hold their elections and separate from Ukraine. It was to split according to ethnic lines, the same way Yugoslavia broke up. The Neocons wanted war, and the Donbas were not to be allowed to split, so they lied and negotiated a treaty to only allow Ukraine time to build an army and then refused to honor the treaty.

Yogoslavia_map_of_breakup

These people will take us into World War III no matter what. Zelensky is just an actor, and what he is doing is a crime against all humanity. How many millions will die for what he is proposing?

Here is the Neocon Lyndsey Grachm. He told the truth. This is not about democracy, the sovereignty of Ukraine, or the Ukrainian people. This is about a huge gas field under Crimea that he admits is $10 to $12 trillion, and they do not want Russia and China to get their hand on it.

Here is the Neocon Lyndsey Grachm. He told the truth. This is not about democracy, the sovereignty of Ukraine, or the Ukrainian people. This is about a huge gas field under Crimea that he admits is $10 to $12 trillion, and they do not want Russia and China to get their hand on it.

Lyndsey could care less if any Ukrainian is still alive when this is done. His personal hatred of Russians is famous.

Welcome to the Neocon World of Authoritarianism!

Consumer Confidence – Biggest Crash Since 2021


Posted originally on Sep 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

COMMENT: Marty, it is amazing that the world is not focusing on your model. Consumer confidence in the US took a nose dive, which was the largest decline in more than three years. The ECM turns, and central backs began to cut rates within weeks, and you explained that recessions are born when people lose confidence in the future. Well, everything you have taught us is always correct. I do not know what it will take to wake up. The WSJ, FT, and every business publication should be reporting on your forecasts. It appears they are just part of the fake news.

Keep up the fantastic work.

BB

2024_09_24_21_03_10_Consumer_confidence_fell_more_than_expected_this_month

REPLY: I am not entirely sure why the WSJ and the FT, among others, will not discuss the ECM. They only preach the traditional Keynesian Economics that is still taught in universities, maintaining that the business cycle is not definitive. Thus, it is random, so it can be manipulated under Keynes to eliminate recessions and depressions. That was the same storyline I was taught in school back in the ’60s.

NewYorker Cover

Other than Nick Palmgarten at the New Yorker, who called the ECM the Secret Cycle, no major media has ever wanted to discuss that there is a definitive aspect to the business cycle. That goes against all the Ivy League universities. I suppose they do not want to rock the boat. I had a discussion about this model with Paul Volcker back in 1999. Paul agreed the business cycle was about 8 years. He had even put out his book entitled Rediscovery of the Business Cycle.

Burns Arthur

Anyone who has had real live experience has conceded there is a definitive business cycle. Arthur Burns was Fed Chairman when Bretton Woods collapsed. He, too, concluded that the business cycle always won.

Milton Friedman

Milton Frieman came to listen to one of my lectures in Chicago. Milton said I was doing what he had only dreamed about. He had written that a floating exchange rate like we have today would emerge back in 1953 – 18 years before it took place in 1971. Milton understood the global interconnections, and that is why he came to listen to me.

CALLMONY MA

I tried the BS random walks theory, which seems to be created by people who cannot predict anything. Even Keynes’ whole theory does not hold up. The market has NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates twice because it is NOT some stupid one-dimensional relationship. I warned the ECB that going to negative interest rates would fail. If there is NO CONFIDENCE in the future, people will not spend – PERIOD!!!

With the prospect of wars everywhere, Kamala promised to change the filibuster rules so she can get Abortion through to kill unlimited amounts of babies, creating deep divisions and then taxing UNREALIZED gains that our computer warns would result in the biggest 2-year crash of the Great Depression levels, with such uncertainty, we are headed into a recession into 2028.

Crash Burn Plane

It’s hopeless. We have to crash and burn before anyone dares consider any new possibility.

Categories:ECONOMICS

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Trump Assassin Was Registered on DHS/FBI Watch List, but “Fell Through the Cracks”


Posted originally on the CTH on September 24, 2024 | Sundance 

We are the non-pretending audience that doesn’t need to have the points of continual similarity pointed out.  However, there is something rather remarkable about those in Washington DC who never seem to be able to connect the same proverbial dots.

In the latest development of attempted President Trump assassin Ryan Routh, the Dept of Homeland Security and FBI are now admitting that Routh was on a watch list of Americans who traveled to fight with Ukraine.  The people on the watch list were supposed to be scrutinized and tracked when they reentered the USA.  However, Ryan Routh, “fell through the cracks,” thereby giving him space and opportunity to carry out his long-planned assassination attempt against President Trump.

The revelation itself is not a surprise.  There is a consistent pattern of names registered with the FBI as potential threats to the homeland who “fall through the cracks,” including the Tsarnaev brothers (Boston Marathon), Tashfeen Malik (San Bernardino terrorists) and Omar Mateen (Pulse nightclub).  It is always the crack fallers who seemingly end up carrying out their endeavors.

It’s likely the only reason DHS and the FBI are admitting to the almost fatal “mistake,” is because there is a document trail for Ryan Routh which will come to light as an outcome of DC’s “assassination review task force.”  After all, Ryan Routh met with “someone” in Washington DC, when he was there advocating for intervention.

Someone was likely to discover that Routh was on a list of people supposed to be monitored, so DHS/FBI release the information to cloud any non-pretending suspicion upon them.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The Department of Homeland Security in 2022 launched an interagency effort to scrutinize Americans returning from Ukraine’s war zone. The previously unreported effort aimed to identify Americans who might turn violent upon their return, according to five people familiar with the plans.

Officials across DHS and the FBI began attempting to identify Americans in talks with Ukrainian authorities and analyzing intelligence about Americans headed home from the country. They also reviewed social media accounts for violent rhetoric. There is no evidence that Americans who fought with Ukraine’s military — which the U.S. government supports — have engaged in political violence upon their return. Many have died there fighting Russian invaders.

But Ryan Routh, the suspect who investigators say could have been waiting for the former president with a semi-automatic rifle for more than 11 hours near Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, fell through the cracks.

One DHS official reportedly knew Routh traveled to Ukraine, though there’s no indication that the FBI ever investigated him upon his return and during his years-long and at times bombastic campaign to drum up support for Kyiv. It’s also unclear if federal law enforcement was aware he wrote a self-published book that appeared to call for Trump’s assassination. And on Sept. 15, he allegedly got within 500 yards of the former president before the Secret Service spotted him and opened fire. (read more)

As you take off your shoes and undergo extensive scrutiny as a result of the Patriot Act, the subsequently formed DHS and the TSA, it’s worth remembering, as initially sold, the creation of the DHS was specifically intended to stop domestic terror threats, ie. EXACTLY the activity that Ryan Routh was engaged in.

The justification to create the DHS and subsequent intrusive activity of the United States security apparatus, was to stop unstable and sketchy people from carrying out violence internally within the homeland.   However, as many voices warned at the time, the mission of the agencies created by The Patriot Act, actualized with DHS and FBI conducting surveillance of parents at school board meetings, monitoring white men in the U.S. military, tracking pastors, preachers and Christian congregations, and registering law-abiding gun owners while the sketchy and unstable simply run amok.

Your sneakers and belt are a threat.  Ryan Wesley Routh, eh notsomuch.

Sooner or later historians will admit, our current result is a feature, not a flaw, of the Patriot Act intent.

…”Top Men”

Irony – High Profile Florida Judge Gets Randomly Assigned DOJ Case Against Trump Assassin


Posted originally on the CTH on September 24, 2024 | Sundance

Sometimes divine serendipity just makes you smile.

FLORIDA – The federal judge who presided over — and threw out — the criminal classified documents case the Justice Department brought against Donald Trump is now set to oversee the case into the latest apparent assassination attempt against the former president.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon — a Trump appointee — was randomly assigned the attempted assassination case Tuesday after a grand jury in Miami returned a five-count indictment against Ryan Routh in connection with the Sept. 15 incident at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

The indictment charges Routh with attempted assassination of a presidential candidate, possessing a firearm in furtherance of a violent crime and assault on a federal officer, as well as two charges he already faced: being a felon in possession of a firearm and possessing a firearm with an obliterated serial number. (more)