Trump’s Federal Freeze – Shrinking the Public Sector


Posted originally on Jan 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Armstrong on Government

President Donald Trump implemented a widespread freeze on federal loans and grants, ordering all agencies this week to “temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance.” He was forced to back off after a federal judge halted some of the freeze. The public sector has been multiplying in recent years to the point that there are thousands of agencies whose true purpose are unknown. While many view the act as extreme, public sector growth has become detrimental to our economy and one must determine what exactly the government is funding.

As Adam Smith wrote in “Wealth of Nations”:

“Like an improvident spendthrift, whose pressing occasions will not allow him to wait for the regular payment of his revenue, the state is in the constant practice of borrowing of its own factors and agents, and of paying interest for the use of its own money.”

The wealth of a nation is composed of more than money or gold, for the original idea of “money” did not embrace the concept of true wealth. Money is merely our mental measure of wealth. Cultures in different parts of the world all conceive of money but it is merely how they measure this universal concept of wealth.

There is only one constant and that is the greater the size of government, the lower the production of national wealth. Therefore, the higher the percentage of a nation’s work force is employed by the public sector, the lower its real national product. We saw this in Argentina as of late. Of course, government wishes to include itself in the GDP calculation and it counts government workers twice in many countries. It adds total government spending and adds that to total personal income. By doing this they count all government employees twice for they do not back it out of the total government spending. So we have bogus statistics in GDP as well for the economy appears better when government hires rather than the public sector. That is why we will see unemployment rise under Trump but in all actuality that figure will not be indicative of the overall health of our economy.

Now, Trump specifically is asking for more information on 2,600 programs to determine their legitimacy. Biden implemented a slew of DEI iniatives and programs that do nothing but TAKE from our economy. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) sent the aforementioned companies the following questions:

  • Does this program provide funding that is implicated by the directive to end discriminatory programs, including illegal DEI and “diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility” (DEIA) mandates, policies, programs, preferences, and activities, under whatever name they appear, or other directives in the same EO, including those related to “environmental justice” programs or “equity-related” grants?
  • Does this program promote gender ideology?
  • Does this program promote or support in any way abortion or other related activities identified in the Hyde Amendment?

“It means no more funding for the green new scam that has cost American taxpayers tens of billions of dollars,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday at her first news briefing. “It means no more funding for transgenderism and wokeness across our federal bureaucracy and agencies.” The new press secretary, who actually responds to questions, said it is “the responsibility of this president and this administration to be good stewards of taxpayer dollars.” Welfare aid programs are not vanishing, rather, the government is reevaluating its spending to best direct dollars.

Organizations promoting woke gender ideology, DEI, and the green new deal will be the first to go but a significant cut is needed to restore some order. The fear mongering about Trump eliminating Medicaid and food assistance programs are unfounded. The new administration must determine what agencies are legitimate and eliminating services that do not add to our society in any meaningful way is the first step.

Argentina is an excellent example of how quickly an economy can recover when we remove socialistic programs. There were 341,477 people in the public sector on government payroll when President Milei took office, and his aim is to eliminate 70,000 needless positions. From December 2023 to October 2024, Argentina reduced the national administration was reduced by 10% and state-run firms decreased by 12.6%. Reducing the national administration alone saved the government $3.82 billion in the short-term, not accounting for future payouts, additional staffing, or pensions. Yet he began by eliminating services that were simply unnecessary.

Milei.PublicSector

Milei first eliminated useless agencies such as the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Labor, and Ministry of Social Development. In his words, Argentina WAS a poor country that could not afford these departments that do absolutely nothing to improve the nation’s economic conditions. No one noticed when he reduced the cabinet by 50%, but the economy certainly took note and posted its first budget surplus in 123 years this December.

“The deficit was the root of all our evils — without it, there’s no debt, no emission, no inflation. Today, we have a sustained fiscal surplus, free of default, for the first time in 123 years. This historic achievement came from the greatest adjustment in history and reducing monetary emission to zero. A year ago, a degenerate printed 13% of GDP to win an election, fueling inflation. Today, monetary emission is a thing of the past,” Milei proudly announced.

Yes, other factors contributed to Argentina’s recent success, but moving away from socialism and ever-growing social programs was paramount. Socialism NEVER works but world leaders refuse to learn from the past.

Under Biden, we saw manufacturing flee the US. The jobs reports often looked promising but they failed to recognize the rising public sector that can never contribute to GDP. We have seen what happens when governments grow to disproportionate figures and it never ends well. The longest reigning empire, the Roman Empire, fell as a direct result of an oversized public sector that bankrupted Rome. The private sector produces economic growth, while government is a public servant consuming the wealth generated by others.

Deep State

The Deep State is more than a swamp; it is an ocean. It is so deeply rooted that I wish Trump all the best, but I am not sure he will be able to root out the core corruption. That will probably take a sovereign default, and history warns that a revolution will often follow. This time, the government is entrenched in bribing the people to retain power, giving them free food and circuses, and they will be the government alone, as they used to say in Rome.

Should the Feds Lower Rates?


Posted originally on Jan 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

FederalReserve 1

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Donald Trump face off once again. The two have notoriously butted heads over interest rates, as Trump has accused the Fed of stifling economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing. Speaking at Davos, the president said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

We all know the Federal Reserve is independent and the White House cannot dictate interest rates. Lowering interest rates does not stimulate the economy, contradictory to the common belief that reducing rates will boost economic growth. The outdated understanding based on Keynesian Economics states that an increase in the supply of money MUST be inflationary. The Fed raises rates to reduce consumption and lowers rates to stimulate consumption.

It’s a very nice theory, but when actually tested, it utterly fails. Lower rates will NEVER cause people to invest until they believe that there is an opportunity to invest. We are watching the big players withdraw from equities, let alone government debt. We are in a private wave where money is running off the grid at a rapid pace.

Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.

Every fiscal policy in recent years has exacerbated inflation and the Fed cannot keep up with government spending. QE FAILED. The artificially low interest rates of the recent past were completely unsustainable and relied on outdated theories.

The most significant issues facing our economy are simply out of the Fed’s hands: war, taxation, and government spending. Chairman Jerome Powell surprised everyone when he called spending under the Biden-Harris administration “unsustainable” and warned that it would hurt generations to come. While not a direct criticism, Powell issued a stark warning that aligned with our Revolution Cycle of 72 years. In 1951, the central bank defied the US government by refusing to purchase debt to prevent rate hikes amid the Korean War. The minutes reports always mention that the central bank is keenly monitoring geopolitical events as it must look at all variables from a global standpoint.

The issue of increasing sanctions on Russia, and the rest of the world for that matter, may raise inflationary fears and push long-term rates higher. Then we are looking at the risk of Japan, who holds the bulk of US debt, experiencing a sovereign default in a contagion that will spread to Europe.

We may see the Fed pull back rates this year. Powell understands that Keynesian policies no longer work and raising rates have no effect on inflation. Interest rates are really the price of money in anticipation of future inflation.

Office of Management & Budget Dir. Confirmation Hearing


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Jan 22, 2025 at 10:10 am EST

Trump Fails to End Ukraine War on Day 1


Posted Jan 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 
Zelensky.Trump_.VeryDangerous

It was a lofty promise and a campaign tale that no one believed could happen. Donald Trump stayed true on his promise to carry out a number of executive orders on Day 1 of his presidency, but he cannot simply sign an EO to end the war in Ukraine. Yet he did promise to stop sending blank checks to Ukraine and has appointed a special envoy who is requesting 100 days to reevaluate America’s position in the war. More importantly, Trump would like to go directly to the source and speak with Putin.

The Kremlin broadcast Putin’s weekly security council message earlier than expected to address Trump directly. “We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict,” Putin said. “Its goal should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament with the aim of subsequently continuing the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all nations that live in this region.”

Russia will never waiver on a deal that does not include prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO. Trump seems to be aligned with him on this issue as any reasonable mind can comprehend how this would lead to an immediate escalation into World War III. Territorial concessions? Neither Russia or Ukraine is willing to surrender territory.

BBC Trump Proof War

New US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reaffirmed the new administration’s message that the war in Ukraine must end. America can withhold funding or direct intervention. America cannot undo the damage that has been done. There are too many hands in the money pit that is Ukraine from world governments to investment banks. Everyone is heavily invested in Ukraine and will demand repayment for untold fortunes spent on prolonging the for-profit war. Even withdrawing from NATO would not be sufficient to end the war as the alliance has been preparing for a Trump victory before campaigning efforts began.

Europe is pushing full speed ahead to fabricate World War II, with both Germany and France offering to send “peacekeepers,” a digestible new term for “trained soldiers.” Zelensky simply wants the money to continue pouring in. “Will President Trump even notice Europe?” Zelensky asked in appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Does he see NATO as necessary, and will he respect EU institutions?” Ukraine’s president is attempting to shape this as a Europe v the USA matter as if America is abandoning Europe under Trump.

One side does not want the war to end. You cannot negotiate when one side is firmly opposed AND does not have the final say. Zelensky sold out his country many years ago and dealing with him would be a moot point as he is not the only truly in control of Ukraine or the war efforts. Trump is going to have an extremely difficult time navigating this irreversible situation. According to our computer model, the very best efforts would only result in a delay to the inevitable. It gives me no pleasure to share this forecast but the model has yet to mislead us.

World War III is coming by 2027; the financial implications will be fully felt by 2028.

The Unelected in Brussels Deny Romania Democracy


Posted originally on Jan 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

RomanianFlag

The vote of the Romanian people must be ignored, according to the European Court of Human Rights, which upheld the annulment of the results of the first election. The next election is slated for May 18, and while Calin Georgescu is permitted to run again, will the establishment respect the vote?

Georgescu is called a far-right extremist for daring to speak out against the globalist narrative. He is firmly against NATO and promoting forever wars. He does not want the neocons to use his country as a “door for a war.” Millions of Romanians agree but their voices have been stifled by the establishment. The Romanian government under President Klaus Iohannis initially called into question Article 146(f) of the Romanian Constitution that demands elections must be legal. Romanian courts declared that RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE was at play and the vote of the people was null and void.

The European Court of Human Rights has sided with Romania’s establishment. How could this court have the authority to override Romania’s democracy? Well, all European Union members knowingly or unknowingly agreed to bend the knee to Brussels. The European Court of Human Rights is composed of 46 judges who each represent their respective member state in the Council of Europe.

Each member state presents three options for judge selection and one must be female. The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe then determines if the three proposed candidates are qualified, and the Parliamentary Assembly elects the judge who best aligns with the overall EU narrative. The people have absolutely no say or vote.

Romania Blinken

So, not only did the Romanian government tell their citizens to ignore the election results, but judges UNELECTED by the Romanian people were able to solidify this gross misjustice. Then, the government acted puzzled that thousands took to the streets to protest, and some questioned whether they should even vote when government plans to install its candidate of choice.

Georgescu ran on a platform of ending Romania’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war and repeatedly said it is not their war to fight. The establishment will not permit Romania to remain neutral. He still holds a 38% majority of support over all other candidates but the questions remains whether the establishment will ever allow a true election is such a geographically crucial area for the next world war.

Europe Preparing to Invade Russia


Posted originally on Jan 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

2025_01_21_21_09_53_Thousands_of_British_troops_prepare_for_possible_Putin_NATO_invasion_Daily_Mai

I have been warning that the NEOCONS have total control of Europe. They have convinced all of these heads of state that Russia is now weak, conventionally defeated, and the time is ripe to invade. The computer is still warning about the April/June time period, and to comprehend this insanity, you must understand that an inferiority complex has been present even since post-World War II. Macron of France wants to send troops into Ukraine, and he continues to cling to the glory days of France and the dream of strategic autonomy of a Europe no longer dependent on America. With Trump coming to office, they have no interest in PEACE – they want war. They seem to be rushing to war, fearing Trump could stop them.

NATO_Defeat Russia_in_3_Days Adam Kinzinger

These insane European leaders want to think, like Iraq, that they can conquer Russia in a matter of days. They think Ukraine has been using long-range missiles to destroy Russia’s conventional ability to defend itself. That was the entire reason why Zelinsky turned from defending his own country to invading Russia. The nonsense that this would force Russia to the peace table when every offer of peace by Putin has been ignored. They are planning the conquest of Russia and dividing up the richest nation on earth from natural resources to revitalize and collapse the EU economy.

Ep 3550a – Yellen’s Computer Was Hacked, The Call To Audit The Fed Is Getting Louder


Posted originally on Rumble By X 22 Report on: Jan 18, 2025 at 4:30 pm EST

Why Macron Wants to Create World War III – For a Dictatorships?


Posted originally on Jan 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Macron Poster

A reader from France elaborated on the real motives behind Macron’s wanting to send troops into Ukraine, knowing this would start World War III. He looks at this from a personal power perspective, like any dictator fearing a loss of power. The reader wrote:

“To follow up on the Post “Macron Considers Sending Troops to Ukraine” on which I added a comment, I wanted to share with you Macron’s possible strategy behind his reiteration of sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

Through this, France would officially find itself at War. In fact, Macron will be able to apply Article 16 of the constitution. The President of the National Assembly and the Senate is already there! “

France_Article_16_Constitution_of_October_4_1958_Legifrance

Interview: Is Democracy Failing? The West’s New Era of Cold War Propaganda (Commodity Culture -Part 1)


Posted originally on Jan 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

It’s Always the Currency vs Investment


Posted originally on Jan 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Confused Man

QUESTION: On Friday, the UK FTSE and DAX closed at new all-time highs, so clearly money is flowing into these indices yet euros and Pounds seem to be flying out the door as they prepare for lower lows and thus this seem confusing.  Added to the confusion is that Europe is where the sovereign debt crisis SDC) is likely to begin, so why is capital flowing into these markets?  I suppose better to hold UK or German equities vs. their sovereign debt and thus will those equity markets continue to rally during the SDC?

SR

International Value

ANSWER: A number of questions have been coming in about the European markets. Keep in mind that we are in the throes of geopolitical and political upheavals, not to mention the entry of Trump and his old-school nonsense about lowering the dollar to sell more stuff overseas and imposing tariffs. Those ideas I have dealt with constantly over the course of the past few decades. It is confusing without question. The press does not understand currency, not even those in government. Absolutely everything has an international value, and this has led to the overwhelming majority getting things wrong. Many ask why mainstream media will not interview me on such important topics as this. The reason is simply – it is too confusing for them as well.

Ferarri Trade

I have told the story at conferences about my Ferarri Trade and how I bought a 308 Ferrari when I lived in London in 1985 when the British pound fell to $1.03. The Italians were getting $60,000 for the car in the States back then. It was still priced in pounds when the pound used to be $2.40. I bought the car for about $35,000 when converted. The Italians could no longer sell these Ferarris for such a price in London. Hence, they doubled the price in British pounds based on $1.03.

Over the course of the next couple of years, the pound rallied and went to $1.90 again by 1988. I drove the car for 2 years, sold it used for £40,000, and virtually doubled my money. Then, people were buying Ferraris as an investment, thinking it was the car that appreciated when, in fact, it was just a currency play. If you did not look at the currency, you missed the whole point.

Porsche Trade 1970s

In fact, I was buying German cars throughout the 1970s as the dollar was declining. A Porsche was $8,600 in 1970, and by 1980, it was $27,700. I would drive the cars for 2 years and then trade them in and get my money back, so cars never cost me a dime throughout the 1970s. I understood it was all just currency – not the cars themselves. My father took the family to Europe for the summer of 1964, which taught me about currency as we traveled from Sweden to Italy and all around. We had to change currency every time we crossed a border. I learned that CURRENCY was actually a mental language. I would listen to the price in Italian lira and convert that back to dollars in my mind to asses if the value was a fair price.

WSJ 1983 MAA 1

I was really the only true foreign exchange analyst. I was dealing in billions in the early 1980s. Clients would even put me on a speak in the middle of an OPEC meeting. I was being called in around the world all on currency crises. That’s how I became friends with Margaret Thatcher. I was being touted as the highest-paid analyst in the world, all for currency. When I was opening an office in Geneva in 1985, I was going to use some European names to blend in. I went to lunch with the head of one of the top main banks in Switzerland, who was a client and asked his opinion of what European name to use. He asked me to name one European FOREX analyst. I was embarrassed for I could not. He then explained why everyone was using my firm. He said there were no European analysts because they each would tout their own currency because it was a political issue. He explained everyone was using my firm because I did not care if the dollar went down or up. I said it was just a trade.

1987 Crash Brady Commission

By 1985, I was summoned to the US. They were arguing to force the dollar down by 40% to reduce the trade deficit as that theory today is espoused by Trump. That was the Plaza Accord, and I wrote to President Reagan and warned that they would cause a crash within two years, and that became the 1987 Crash. The Presidential Commission then called me in for that one. They just do not teach this stuff in school and that seems to be the problem.

Rubin Letter
Rubbin response letter Tim Geithneir

In 1997, Robert Rubin, former head of Goldman Sachs, was also trying to talk the dollar down for trade. Again, he did not really understand currency and its impact on markets. The Asian currency Crisis unfolded weeks later. He may have been at Goldman, but that was more related to debt. To one person, a stock rally can look like a bull market, and to another, a bear market. When you get into currency swings of 10%-40%, it alters the perception of value because they still do not teach this stuff in school. We are clinging to old theories like Keynesian economics from the period of fixed exchange rates. Politicians are making the wrong decisions and investors are confused because these concepts are never taught.

UK_FTSE100 M Tech 1 18 25
UK_FTSE100 M Tech in US 1 18 25

As the greenback rallies, then the European share prices will appear cheap, just as Ferarri did in 1985 when the pound fell to $1.03. You will have domestic movement away from public assets as we have seen corporate rates move below that of government rates in France. Here is the FTSE in pounds and then in dollars. While you see new highs in pounds, the FTSE has not made new highs in dollars and has backed off, showing that the rally in the FTSE is not keeping pace with the decline in the pound.

01:56This is why, in Socrates, you can plot any instrument in a host of various currencies. The definition of a bull market is something that rallies in terms of all the key currencies. When it is rising only in terms of the local currency, it is simply a domestic shift and not international.

We do NOT see a major Crash on the horizon in shares, commodities, gold, silver, etc.

The greatest risk of a crash will be in government debt.