Posted originally on Jun 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, with so many markets all showing sharp rises in volatility of panic cycles in 2026, ahead of what appears to be a significant turn in 2027, the rumor is that your computer will be correct. According to my military sources, Ukraine is expected to fall by August or by 2026. They say the real numbers are suppressed and that the kill ratio is more like 20 Ukrainians to one Russian. The fake propaganda comes from Ukrainian intelligence, and the Biden Administration instructed the US intelligence not to contradict Ukraine to keep the propaganda flowing. I was told that Ukraine is imploding. The attack on the airbases in Russia has not changed the game. It was a desperate attempt to pretend Ukraine is winning. Russia is in no hurry for peace because this is a war of attrition that they are winning. The West is out of patriot missiles, artillery shells, and tanks. Ukraine has gone through everyone’s stockpiles, leaving NATO incapable of war with Russia before 2027, which seems to be what Socrates is saying. They are probably taking Socrates’ for real projections of time, based on what I hear.
Do you agree with these statements?
PC
ANSWER: Ukraine is essentially on fire, and Russia is in no hurry to negotiate peace, for Ukraine will burn itself out. This is a war of attrition, and Russia is outlasting Ukraine and all of NATO. Russia has expanded its military and its arms production, and it is far superior to NATO; it is laughable. The politicians of Europe are being misled by the NEOCONS who have never won a single war since WWII.
There were three main objectives of Russia that the West has constantly ignored. (1) Ukraine does NOT enter NATO, (2) Ukraine is not militarized, and (3) Ukraine must be de-Nazified. That third objective I can only see being possible by just killing all the Nazis in Ukraine, but honestly who are lurking behind smiles like Kaja Kallas, who has come out and said the EU will not honor any peace deal that Trump negotiates. She is the daughter of Siim Kallas, a former Prime Minister of Estonia, and Kristi Kallas, a physician. However, her family has a history of political involvement, which is the source of the problem.
Her mother and grandmother were deported to Siberia during the Soviet occupation because of her family’s ties to the Nazis. I should emphasize that her grandfather, Johannes Kallas, was investigated post-war but never prosecuted, for he served as a deputy chief of police in Tallinn under the German occupation (1941–1944). He was not formally a member of the Nazi Party. This role was collaborating with Nazi Germany. Kaja Kallas herself or her immediate family held Nazi sympathies. Many saw the Nazis as liberators from the Soviets.
Her personal hatred of Russia was because her mother and grandmother were sent to Siberia. Estonia was occupied by the Soviet Union (1940–1941), then Nazi Germany (1941–1944), and again by the USSR (1944–1991). In 2021, she stated:
“I cannot be held accountable for the choices of my grandparents’ generation, just as young Germans today are not responsible for what happened during WWII.”
Nevertheless, as Prime Minister of Estonia, she came out and said that Russia was too big and should be broken up. That was a deeply biased personal view, and this is the problem with this de-Nazification demand of Putin. It is hard to imagine how that will be possible when people like Kallas hate the Russian people for the very sins of previous generations who were communists. As a Russian or Chinese, if they want to return to the glory days of Communism, 99.9% will say no way. People like Zelensky and Kallas refuse to let go of this hatred of the Russian people for the days of Lenin and Stalin.
The hatred of the Russian people for the days of Stalin, who was a Georgian and not a Russian, is just overwhelming. Merkel deliberately lied to Putin and signed a peace deal only to allow Ukraine to build an army and thereby militarize. Then you have the EU that wants to bring Ukraine into NATO to create war with Russia. Sorry, but the computer warns that Russia will win, and this will be the third loss for Europe.
Just about every intelligence agency tunes into Socrates because it is not based on personal biases or opinions. In times of war, the truth is rarely ever reported. This is when an AI machine can offer the best advice, as there is no human interaction to influence the outcome.
Posted originally on Jun 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, this feud between Trump and Musk has caused me to wonder about Musk. Then, all of these forecasts are using tools you warned do not work because they rely solely on linear analysis. The Tax Foundation said Trump’s bill would result in a $2.6 trillion increase in the deficit. The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model claimed that the bill would raise deficits by $2.8 trillion. Then Yale’s Budget Lab claimed that over a 30-year window, the bill would add $10.8 trillion to the national debt. None of these organizations even understands that there is a business cycle. I find all of this chatter is no different from the climate change projects, as you said, one degree up this year means that will continue forever, and we will all die in 50 years.
Does Socrates have any view that is more reliable than these fake academic prognostications that are never right even once?
Rich
ANSWER: These forecasts are totally worthless. The CBO’s projections for the federal budget deficit were about $900 billion in 2019, and it was expected to exceed $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. The deficits for 2020, 2021, and 2022 were $3.1 trillion, $2.7 trillion, and $1.3 trillion, respectively. They are incapable of forecasting. How many millions do these fake forecasts cost? We will do it for 10% of their budget. They are all based not just on linear analysis, but on the classic assumption that all things remain equal. They NEVER understand that there is a natural inherent business cycle.
Socrates examines everything, and nothing ever remains the same. We have a Directional Change in the annual budget in 2026, and then you see the big target is 2027. Just looking at the French government, which is in its 5th Republic. France changes government like the Biden Administration changed the definitions of a woman from women’s rights for abortion to his appointment of Jackson to the Supreme Court, who said she could not define what a woman is. The French government is expected to fall in 2027, potentially taking the EU with it.
When you look at the chart for the annual budget deficit, we peaked with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Look at the 1998-2002 period. We had a balanced budget. I was asked by the Wall Street Journal to write about how this was accomplished. In sum, the manner in which President Clinton (1993-2001) was able to balance the budge was (1) the economy recovered in 1994 with capital pouring into the United States as it fled South East Asia resulting in the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997, (2) US Interest rates rose sharply in 1994 attracting huge capital inflows including those from Japan, and (3) Clinton shortened the maturity of the debt funding it short-term to cut interest expenditure.
The National Debt rose from $4,064.6 billion in 1992 to $5,807.5 billion by 2001. The shift in funding slowed the rate of growth. Interest rates at the Fed dropped by 6.5% in 2000 to 1.75% in 2001. When Clinton took office, the Fed Discount Rate stood at 3.5%. The rise began in 1994, which helped to attract foreign capital, especially from Japan, and it peaked in 2000 with the Dot Com Bubble on the heels of the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle that followed the collapse of Russian debt.
However, because Clinton shifted from long-term to short-term, which reduced the interest expenditures, now look at how the debt exploded when the rates went back up to 6.5%. This is what I mean by the Fed can no longer control inflation, for the biggest borrower is the government.
Posted originally on Jun 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Dear Marty!
Even “neutral” Austria is preparing for WW3. Military service is to be significantly extended and “expanded.” Civilian service is to be “further developed.”
The Neos party, as well as other Austrian parties, are in favor of abolishing neutrality and establishing an EU army.
Anyone who wants to see clearly sees war on the horizon. Austria will once again be crushed in a world war. I’ve already said goodbye to my former homeland.
The unfathomable injustice and suffering you endured in solitary confinement have forged you into a very strong person and not broken you as they had hoped. This gives me hope that you will remain with us for a long time to come!
GB
REPLY: Austria has been on the wrong side three times in history. We are approaching the 224-year cycle of political change from 1805 in just two years – 2027.
1805: Major defeat leading to the end of the Holy Roman Empire.
1918: Total defeat and dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in WWI.
1945: Defeat as part of Nazi Germany in WWII, followed by occupation.
Therefore, the most complete military defeats leading to the collapse of the Austrian state as it existed at the time occurred in 1918 (end of the Habsburg Empire) and 1945 (end of Nazi rule). Since regaining independence in 1955, Austria has maintained a policy of neutrality and has not been involved in any wars. That is what is being thrown out the window, as has been the case with Sweden and Switzerland. This is NOT a good outcome for Austria. We will run our models of Austria specifically and report soon.
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